Tuesday 3/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#3 Miss Shady	She'll need her very best stuff, but she might get a dreamy trip tracking the speed while in really good form after a couple easy wins. Think she can step up.
#5 Miss Fussy Pants	She's an obvious player off the romp last time out, and her form has really come alive since getting over the local footing. Capable right back.
#6 Constitutionalist	Her best game comes when she finds the front, and she draws well to hassle Miss Fussy Pants, who appears the best of the other pace. Wouldn't shock.
Race Summary	Miss Shady is fast enough to stay close to the splits today, and she should be in line to get first jump while stepping up in solid form.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Frog Town	He made a big move to loom from off the pace last time out before he flattened late, and maybe he can sustain that run just a bit better today. The one to beat.
#3 Mayito	He finished in front of the top choice when they met last time out, and he looks like the main danger to that guy as they meet again today. More tactical than that guy.
#1 Dark Baron	He just posted a big upset to graduate last time out, and while I don't trust him at all to run right back to it, he's interesting enough for a small piece from a forward spot if he can hold that form.
Race Summary	Frog Town and Mayito make for what feels like a top-heavy race, but the former may turn the tables this time around.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#4 Apache	He has a length to turn on I'll Figure It Out today, but I like that he has a little versatility and track the speed from wherever the race flow dictates. Enough to like.
#7 I'll Figure It Out	Much like the next guy, he is not known for bringing big efforts in back-to-back races, so I'm not really sure what to think of him today off the last one. Capable on form alone, but at what price and with what question marks?
#8 Rockstar Ro	Tough call here, as he's coming off a race that would probably do the job right back if he's able to bring something similar, but he rarely backs up his big races with paired efforts, so I'm treading lightly.
Race Summary	Apache is reliable enough and should find a really good tracking spot, and I'm hoping he'll be a playable enough price after chasing I'll Figure It Out home in the last two.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#8 NO MORE DIAMONDS (6-1)	Re-awakened for $5k, could hold tactical edge despite class hike.
#3 BE WATER (5-2)	Good tightener for this, stands 9/2-3-2 at Parx.
#5 BULLET ON TAP (3-1)	Second on fast and sloppy track in slow-paced 6F sprints recently.
Race Summary	NO MORE DIAMONDS awakened on the class drop in her third start for this barn, chasing the 3-1 winner while 3- and 4-wide and finishing a clear second. She steps up in class today and can make good use of her speed from a favorable post. Bet to win and place and play an 8/3,5/ALL trifecta.

Parx - Race #2

#4 IFIHADACHANCE (7-2)	Has good chance on cutback to short sprint for 24 percent ‘repeat’ barn.
#8 VITAEMI (3-1)	Classy 9-year-old dueled long way on drop to this level and was re-claimed.
#2 LUNA T (4-1)	Piles up the checks in Parx sprints, the faster the pace the better.
Race Summary	IFIHADACHANCE has good tactical speed, a 6-for-16 record at the track and a chance to repeat for her new connections in her third start of a cycle. She benefited from a pace battle last out but could do the same while shortening up to 5-1/2F. Bet to win and place.

Parx - Race #4

#5 ZIP IT SCOTTY (7-2)	Takes magnified class drop in this field, sheds 5 pounds, good value play.
#4 HIDE THE RANSOM (3-1)	Followed move of winning fave, caught by 110-1 shot for place spot.
#3 LAZARETTO (5-1)	Disappointed in latest but can’t be discounted off prior start at this level.
Race Summary	ZIP IT SCOTTY battled for lead early, then closed mildly on the rail while no factor against better. He raced evenly in a fast-paced sprint at Penn National in the race prior, earning the top recent speed figure in the field. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 6	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 10 cent Superfecta / 50 cent Philly BIG 5
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 2:20P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 5 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $6,250 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. PRINCESS SOPHIE is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESS SOPHIE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. AMBITIOUSLY PLACED: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	PRINCESS SOPHIE	8/5	5/2
9	AMBITIOUSLY PLACED	9/2	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	NOT A TRACE	4	8/1	Front-runner	71	65	73.0	59.8	48.3
2	WISHING ONA PRAYER	2	10/1	Front-runner	68	62	55.0	10.4	0.0
5	HELEONORTIZ	5	10/1	Front-runner	70	67	52.8	62.0	48.5
7	PRINCESS SOPHIE	7	8/5	Stalker	88	76	77.8	73.6	71.6
9	AMBITIOUSLY PLACED	9	9/2	Stalker	72	66	59.0	70.8	64.8
6	TIZ A SHARPIE	6	4/1	Trailer	76	76	53.4	67.8	60.3
1	CATTI LA BELLE	1	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	78	57.0	67.0	58.5
3	BEYOND A MILLION	3	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	75	62	43.2	59.4	44.9
8	AWESOME PAL	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	61	55.8	55.8	43.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Turf ParadisePURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race 4	$1 Exacta / $1 Quinella / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Double (Races 4-5) / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) $.20 Grand Canyon Pick 6 Jackpot (Races 4-5-6-7-8-9)
Maiden Claiming $8,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 61 • Purse: $15,000 • Post: 2:22P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * ENGLISH MEADOW: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. DADS DIVA: Tod ay is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. BETSY IS THE CODE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in Track Master Power Rating.
4	ENGLISH MEADOW	4/1	3/1
5	DADS DIVA	5/2	4/1
6	BETSY IS THE CODE	6/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BETSY IS THE CODE	6	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	66.3	48.1	43.1
5	DADS DIVA	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	63	59	60.0	50.3	43.8
4	ENGLISH MEADOW	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	62	54.0	57.6	52.6
2	KAMIKAZE BLUE	2	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	47	54.2	39.8	33.3
1	SENT BY ANGELS	1	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	59	49	49.3	46.5	37.0
3	DOOZY	3	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	27.5	33.2	23.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10900 Class Rating: 69

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 5. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ROMANTIC JEWEL 2/1
# 2 LA REINA DEL NORTE 3/1
# 5 FRANKLY MY DEAR 9/5

ROMANTIC JEWEL should be supported as the bet in here. Has garnered strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. She has been running strongly and the speed figures are among the most favorable in this field. Has been running solidly lately and will most likely be up on the front end early on. LA REINA DEL NORTE - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this pony look very good in this race. She has a good opportunity for this event as handler, Trevino, has very solid win rate with horses going this distance. FRANKLY MY DEAR - Earning some nice money in dirt sprint contests. Had one of the strongest speed figs of this group of animals in her last affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Turf Paradise - Race #2 - Post: 1:25pm - Optional Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $31,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#2 LITE RANCHIN KID (ML=2/1)


LITE RANCHIN KID - This front-runner is shortening up today. Should enhance his winning probability. Taking a trip down the class ladder; has the power to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FRENCH ONION (ML=9/5), #1 SUDDENLY FAMOUS (ML=5/2), #3 FREEZE 'EM (ML=5/1),

FRENCH ONION - Today's affair is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance race in the last couple of months. Not the best of signals. This morning-line choice probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on him today. SUDDENLY FAMOUS - Didn't look so good last out. Probably won't do much running in today's race. FREEZE 'EM - Not the right 'spot' in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 LITE RANCHIN KID to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 39

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SHESPUN 7/5
# 4 SMOKIN MOTION 3/1
# 5 SWEET N SALTY 2/1

I've got to go with SHESPUN. This filly could improve on Lasix. This filly looks good for this event since Gladd has a very strong win percent with horses going this distance. She should have a strong performance versus this less demanding bunch. SMOKIN MOTION - Should go to the lead and should never look back. SWEET N SALTY - Gonzalez and Davidson are a potent pair for profits. Has strong early pace and will probably fare admirably against this group.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #2 - Post: 1:22pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,900 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#2 LA REINA DEL NORTE (ML=3/1)


LA REINA DEL NORTE - This mare is in good form. Finished third on Feb 19th. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This mare's last prep was second fastest of the day for the distance. Trainer, Trevino, has been deliberate with this mare off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 FRANKLY MY DEAR (ML=9/5), #3 ROMANTIC JEWEL (ML=2/1), #4 FLYING BUSINESS (ML=4/1),

FRANKLY MY DEAR - Difficult to put your cash on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this one does. Not likely that the speed rating she registered on Feb 19th will be enough in this race. ROMANTIC JEWEL - Can't wager on this vulnerable equine in today's sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even hit the board in a sprint event lately. Tough to invest in any entrant to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance. FLYING BUSINESS - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as regularly as this horse does. No wins for this racer at Mahoning Valley Race Course.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 LA REINA DEL NORTE is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None