Wednesday 3/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #1

#1 Freedom Square	Get a look at at him on the tote and track ahead of this, but he's not meeting a super deep field at first asking and brings a reliable worktab and some modest expectations.
#4 Baron of the Nile	Hoped for a little better from him last time out when he got a tag for the first time and got away from Doncho, so he moves all the way to the bottom for this. Nothing of note on form, but still strikes as one who can play a part.
#6 Legendary Dragon	Think he's a player while dropping back in for a tag, and he was at least able to get past a few horses in that two-back run for $20,000 at Delta. In the mix.
Race Summary	Freedom Square debuts for a modest tag, and there aren't a ton of imposing players lined up in this group. He might kick off the day with a debut win.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#11 Baltimore Heart	The weather in New Orleans hasn't been pleasant the last week, so I'm not sure if this one will even go on the grass, but he'd need a couple scratches to draw in, too. That said, I think he has shown a lot better talent than his last two running lines suggest, and finally getting a good start would go a long way. There is a press-and-pounce turf graduation in this guy's near future.
#10 Hero Worship	Similar story here, as this guy needs scratch help to get in, but he moved way up on the turf last time out and would be in the mix right back with these.
#16 Painted Sunday	He only goes if this comes over to the main track, but he'd be debuting in a race without much serious dirt form and might be a decent enough price thanks to the presence of Linzer.
Race Summary	#8 Linzer is another speedy player who has a shot on either surface, but I worry he's going to be a short price after getting taken down with similar last out.

Fair Grounds - Race #9

#9 Cajun Cyclone	He might have a little price appeal in the finale, as there are a handful of competitive running lines sprinkled in among the duds, and he might land a perfect spying trip today.
#2 He's Just Lucky	Dropper is probably going to be tough, but he has given away ground late in his first two starts while facing better. Should be in the controlling spot turning for home at a short price.
#13 Put it Back Dave	He woke up at second asking when getting in for a tag for the first time, and he has a little bit of pace to potentially keep the chalk in his sights. Needs a scratch -- for a piece if he's in?
Race Summary	Cajun Cyclone has some midrange price appeal in here, as he's one of the few with anything resembling finishing form, and he often bounces back off dull efforts. Better today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #2

#1 MIGHTY MINION (3-1)	Solid return, breezed in :48 since then, can notch first win at Penn National.
#7 BANJO (5-2)	Been chasing fast fractions, drops below level of claim, hit board in 5 of 8 at 6F.
#5 BEJUCO (6-1)	Launched maiden-breaking rally on the turn, got up to win by a neck.
Race Summary	MIGHTY MINION ran well in his first start as a gelding. He made a run at the pace-setting favorite at the quarter pole, before both runners were passed in the stretch. He’s worth a win and place bet in his second start since last May.

Penn National - Race #3

#7 SANTO (12-1)	Finished behind the faves in lone sprint try since he won pair of routes in the fall.
#8 INDIRECTLY (5-1)	In good recent form, caught by deep-closing favorite in latest, enters new barn.
#5 SILENT TIGER (7-2)	High turn of early speed, settled for minor awards in 9 of last 10 starts.
Race Summary	Taking a longshot stab on SANTO, who won back-to-back route races in the fall and is eligible for this condition by 5 days. He rallied mildly at this distance two starts back, finishing behind three rivals who were dismissed at 2-to-1 or less. Bet to win and place and play a 5-7-8 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #4

#3 BRONX TALE (3-1)	Rallied wide to finish third behind sharp rival at this distance two back.
#5 ABBY’S SPIRIT (7-2)	Hit best stride late in 3yo season, gets class relief for second start this year.
#8 BOSS HOLIDAY (5-2)	Led and held third on pair of ‘off’ tracks on the class drop to this level.
Race Summary	Parx invader BRONX TALE raced evenly at 7F in his last start for a higher claiming tag, but he ran well enough in the race prior to win today. He rallied strongly from an outside starting spot to get beat 2 lengths by He’s Pure Talent, who came back to just miss by a nose in a $7,500/nw3 sprint. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Maiden Special • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 63 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 10:17
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 116 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. WHALE OF A RUN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * WHALE OF A RUN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RAISE A RUCKUS: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. HARLEY SIOUX: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	WHALE OF A RUN	7/5	5/2
4	RAISE A RUCKUS	5/1	7/2
8	HARLEY SIOUX	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	WHALE OF A RUN	3	7/5	Front-runner	62	59	59.5	56.3	53.3
4	RAISE A RUCKUS	4	5/1	Front-runner	57	54	55.6	55.2	48.7
8	HARLEY SIOUX	8	6/1	Stalker	60	62	51.4	54.4	50.9
7	GETTIN SPICY	7	30/1	Alternator/Trailer	47	49	25.8	38.8	30.3
6	GOLDEN ASSET	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	19.8	32.1	24.1

Unknown Running Style: EXCLUSIVE ORIGINAL (9/2) [Jockey: Araujo Denis Vicente - Trainer: Brown Ronney W], PORK CHOP PETE (4/1) [Jockey: Nunez Juan Mauricio - Trainer: Contreras Javier], MIDNIGHT STROLLER (10/1) [Jockey: Peltroche Fredy - Trainer: Shu

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn NationalPURCHASE

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 71 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 7:28P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BOSS HOLIDAY is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOSS HOLIDAY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Ho rse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BRONX TALE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
8	BOSS HOLIDAY	5/2	2/1
3	BRONX TALE	3/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	BOSS HOLIDAY	8	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	69	66	65.0	60.6	56.6
3	BRONX TALE	3	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	67	58.6	57.6	53.6
1	BOOK MARKER	1	10/1	Trailer	65	59	39.0	54.4	48.4
4	SPELLED WELL	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	66	43	44.6	52.4	41.4
2	LIDIA'S PRAYER	2	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	62	60	44.9	44.7	35.2
6	NOTORIOUS REY	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	54	42.2	40.8	27.3
5	ABBY'S SPIRIT	5	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	63	56	41.0	46.8	34.3
7	BRANTLEYS BIG GUN	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	55	32.0	52.2	42.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $50000 Class Rating: 81

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD FLORIDA-BRED, OR MAIDEN CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 THE MONOPOLY MAN 4/1
# 8 PRACTICALLY DARK 1/1
# 3 FINGER ROLL 8/1

My selection in this competition is THE MONOPOLY MAN. He ought to be given a chance given the respectable speed figures. This selection will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Gargan has a sound 39 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. PRACTICALLY DARK - Has very good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this event. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of strong win percentage - 22 percent - at this distance & surface. FINGER ROLL - Risk takers ought to note that this animal runs with second time Lasix today. Russell has one of the most respectable winning percentages in this group of horses in this race with entries running at this distance and surface.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Trial - 400y on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 89

QUARTER HORSE 400Y, FOR ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS THAT REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE 2024 MARDI GRAS DERBY TRIALS. FINAL PAYMENT MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $6,000 MUST ACCOMPANY THE ENTRY AND INCLUDES ALL FEES. WEIGHT: 126LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SHAKE ME A CORONA 3/1
# 8 CHANNINGS PRIZE 5/1
# 6 EAGLE SPEED 7/2

SHAKE ME A CORONA has a strong shot to take this race. Looks like a formidable player for the exotics. Appears to be the type to be helped with second time Lasix here. Horses trained by Bustamante in short races are typically solid. CHANNINGS PRIZE - Has to be given consideration in this competition if only for the quite good Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last contest. Rosales has this gelding running well and is a very good pick based on the very good speed figures earned in short races lately. EAGLE SPEED - Will almost certainly go to the front end and might never look back. Recorded a solid speed rating last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mahoning Valley Race Course - Race #1 - Post: 12:55pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,800 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#3 SECRET LIFE STYLE (ML=10/1)
#1 ROCK ON KITTEN (ML=3/1)
#4 STAY THIRSTY AMIGO (ML=2/1)


SECRET LIFE STYLE - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. I like this thoroughbred. Should be familiar with this class level since he ran against the same type last time out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. ROCK ON KITTEN - Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a solid outing on February 20th. Johnson has an 'uncoupled' entry here. Best to be careful of the longer priced half. Just look at his recent fig, 69. That one fits well in this field. Dropped in class in the last race, running against the same type today. STAY THIRSTY AMIGO - Radosevich drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping info to believe this horse should run well at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 AMIGO'S AFFAIR (ML=7/5), #5 UNIDENTIFIED MAN (ML=6/1),

AMIGO'S AFFAIR - This chalk horse ran on Jan 31st and hasn't had a drill since. Not likely that the speed rating he garnered on Jan 31st will hold up in this clash. UNIDENTIFIED MAN - This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last couple of outings. This gelding registered a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 SECRET LIFE STYLE is the play if we get odds of 9/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3] Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,4] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 70

Rating:

#8 BABY'S DIALED IN (ML=9/2)


BABY'S DIALED IN - I just may give this one a good chance. Should rebound off last race where she did run off the board, but was within five lengths at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 GLORIOUS WAVE (ML=5/2), #3 TAYYARA (ML=3/1), #7 TESHIMA (ML=5/1),

GLORIOUS WAVE - No favorable outcomes for this horse in a short distance race over the last two months tells me that this filly is in a very difficult situation TAYYARA - Tough to keep following this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. Didn't come through as the chalk twice. Probably won't gain a win today either. Lower level horses have a difficult time coming back after two stiff stretch runs. TESHIMA - Difficult to put any cash on this filly on the top end. Likes to land in the money though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 BABY'S DIALED IN to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	Skip