Thursday 3/7/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Fair Grounds - Race #7

#11 Sister Ella	She was sharp throughout in the score last out, and she draws well to force the issue from the outside with this group. Wouldn't be a surprise right back.
#3 Olivia G	She has been a bit underwhelming in her last two, so I'd be hesitant to sign on with too much enthusiasm, but her better stuff fits well with these. Wouldn't surprise.
#5 She Has It All	She showed a little heart in the debut when fighting for the pace early on, and she could be competitive here with any reasonable upside in the second start.
Race Summary	Sister Ella romped last out and has the pace to be the in frame from the start today, and I think she's a pretty solid lean in the late multi-race plays.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#2 The Prince's Spur	He has been racing longer trips than he's going to get today, but the winner of his last went on to try the Pegasus World Cup, so there is a pretty noticeable class drop for him.
#3 Fromanothamutha	He has honest form, but he has proven to be more likely underneath with this sort of group, and he has tables to turn on some of these.
#4 Brigade Commander	He has some pace to get in the mix early on in a race without much other speed, and he could be tough to pull in late if he doesn't take much pressure early.
Race Summary	The Prince's Spur has run some pretty big races over the last year, and this feels like the softest spot he has seen in some time. Think it's his race if he comes back running.

Fair Grounds - Race #10

#7 Shankinstine	He has always been capable of the occasional dud, so I'm going to draw a line through that last one and hope he's ready to bounce back. Better today?
#2 Tsuris	His lack of pace has been a liability in those last couple starts, but he has been finishing with some enthusiasm and fits with the best here if he can hold that form.
#10 Inspector Ed	He has turned in some honest efforts when racing for this kind of price in the past, and his form isn't so dark if you forgive the two-back allowance run.
Race Summary	Shankinstine has some appeal after a mild late rally, as the long stretch today may give him enough time to get past these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#1 BIG DREAMER (9-5)	Stalked fleet-footed fave, lacked kick, worked bullet since then, drops in class.
#5 SUPER SPIN (3-1)	Has speed, has Paco, stayed on well after getting ‘floated’ in latest.
#6 IT’S ONLY WORDS (8-1)	Took back to last, rallied widest, finished third in same spot.
Race Summary	BIG DREAMER tracked the 4-to-5 winner while 4-wide, was carried out farther for the stretch drive and lacked late kick for twice this claiming price. She gets second-time Lasix, adds blinkers and should prove tough as the favorite. Play 1-5 and 1-6 exactas.

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#7 LEGENDARY PHANTOM (12-1)	Plays catch-me-if-you can at a tempting price off the claim.
#5 MODICA (7-2)	Solid turf numbers for barn on 15-for-55 run with class droppers.
#8 SALTED CARMEL (5-2)	Exits MSW company, adds blinkers, lures Irad to ride for turf debut.
Race Summary	LEGENDARY PHANTOM chased torrid fractions and held second sprinting on the all-weather track last out. He chased the pace-setting favorite in a 6F turf sprint at Laurel Park in the race prior before tiring. He goes a route of ground for the first time and steps up in class while others step down. He should take some catching, nevertheless, for his new connections and is worth a win and place bet.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#2 GREEK MOJO (8-1)	Stepped up off claim, shut off with run, re-bid with good finish and gallop out.
#4 MO TOURING (9-5)	Lightly-raced 5yo won going long, then rallied 4-wide to just miss at 5-1/2F.
#1 CHLOE’S TOY (4-1)	Showed passing gear to win for higher tag, returns to level of D’Angelo claim.
Race Summary	GREEK MOJO advanced on the inside on the turn, checked in early stretch by rival drifting inward, then regrouped to finish third and gallop out well. The extra half furlong suits her well and the price is right to use her in a 1-2-4 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 4	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / Pick 4 (Races 4-5-6-7)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 7:28P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO PA-RESTRICTED RACE(S) OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 7 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CHARM ALARM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. PERF ECT HIDEAWAY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. STASSI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. COULD BE A COUGAR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. HOT FUDGE WARRIOR: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
2	CHARM ALARM	5/1	5/1
5	PERFECT HIDEAWAY	6/1	6/1
1	STASSI	4/1	7/1
7	COULD BE A COUGAR	5/2	10/1
3	HOT FUDGE WARRIOR	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	COULD BE A COUGAR	7	5/2	Front-runner	80	83	84.0	64.0	52.0
6	ORGANIZED CHAOS	6	7/2	Front-runner	89	78	80.2	71.6	63.6
3	HOT FUDGE WARRIOR	3	6/1	Front-runner	86	81	71.2	75.4	67.4
5	PERFECT HIDEAWAY	5	6/1	Front-runner	85	87	68.6	79.7	75.7
4	MS STRONG HEART	4	10/1	Front-runner	83	80	0.0	0.0	0.0
1	STASSI	1	4/1	Stalker	85	80	63.8	74.8	67.3
2	CHARM ALARM	2	5/1	Trailer	84	80	42.8	76.4	70.9

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 4	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $.50 Bet 3 (Races 4-5-60 / $.20 Rainbow 6 (Races 4-9)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Age 3 • CR: 56 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 2:40P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. MATHURINE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MATHURINE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. WONDERFULVENEZUELA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SPANISH GIRL: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfa ce.
8	MATHURINE	2/1	3/1
2	WONDERFULVENEZUELA	8/5	9/2
7	SPANISH GIRL	6/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	OUR MAGIC PRINCESS	4	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	45.5	45.5	39.5
1	TIME MISS	1	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	0	0	43.6	43.6	31.6
2	WONDERFULVENEZUELA	2	8/5	Alternator/Front-runner	61	52	41.5	47.9	40.9
7	SPANISH GIRL	7	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	44	53.8	46.2	37.7
8	MATHURINE	8	2/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	55.9	55.9	50.9
5	JESS'S MOMENT	5	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	45.5	37.0	25.5
6	NEW BABY	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	44.1	32.4	22.4
3	MISS G MONEY	3	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	39.8	39.8	30.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6800 Class Rating: 26

FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 7 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 RITMO DE BOLERO 4/1
# 2 MYFAVORITE STAR 3/1
# 5 PROYECTORA 7/2

RITMO DE BOLERO gets the edge as the bet in here. Has raced quite well in dirt sprint races. MYFAVORITE STAR - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Trial - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $5000 Class Rating: 86

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS THAT HAVE REMAINED ELIGIBLE TO THE 2024 LOUISIANA DOWNS FUTURITY TRIALS. FINAL PAYMENT MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER AT THE TIME OF ENTRY. SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $6,000 MUST ACCOMPANY THE ENTRY AND INCLUDES ALL FEES. WEIGHT: 124LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 TEMPTING DEBUT GL 8/1
# 3 DNA 4/1
# 8 TDZ DASH OF CHILITOS 5/1

TEMPTING DEBUT GL is the most competitive bet in this contest especially at a such a nice price. Foals of this sire have given players quite good profits in their first starts. Deserves a chance given very solid bloodlines. DNA - The progeny of Freighttrain B have produced sharp figs running in their first asking, combining for a +3 ROI. Players may be making a dangerous move ignoring this conditioner working with a maiden first time starter. Gonzalez has him trained well to break quickly out of the starting gate. TDZ DASH OF CHILITOS - Risk takers using horses with this jockey and trainer combo have done very well as of late.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Fair Grounds - Race #8 - Post: 4:15pm - Allowance - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 100

Rating:

#3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA (ML=9/2)
#8 RECKER POINT (ML=6/1)


FROMANOTHAMUTHA - This gelding is in excellent condition right now. Ran second in the last race and comes back soon. RECKER POINT - Has happened upon a great spot this time around.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 THE PRINCE'S SPUR (ML=7/2), #4 BRIGADE COMMANDER (ML=9/2), #6 SILVER HEIST (ML=5/1),

THE PRINCE'S SPUR - I think this probable favorite needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. Hard to keep following this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. BRIGADE COMMANDER - Can't really be sure that the most recent fig of 93 is legitimate since it was acquired on a muddy track. SILVER HEIST - Not a race since May 4th, probably too long ago to be effective this time around. Notched a common speed figure last time out in a $100,000 Optional Claiming race on May 4th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #3 FROMANOTHAMUTHA on the nose if you can get odds of 9/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with 8 with [4,6,10] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 8:53pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,300 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#3 MODERN DAY ROMANCE (ML=6/1)


MODERN DAY ROMANCE - Chavez was aboard this gelding in the last race and was impressed enough to take the equine right back.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 ONLY GET'N BETTER (ML=7/5), #4 GET OFF MY CLOUD (ML=3/1), #5 ROAD SLEW (ML=9/2),

ONLY GET'N BETTER - Hard to put your money on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as regularly as this entrant does. GET OFF MY CLOUD - Notched a pedestrian speed figure last out in a $5,000 Claiming race on Feb 15th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure. ROAD SLEW - Didn't do alot last time. Probably won't make a winning move today. When scrutinizing today's class rating, he will have to register a better speed figure than last out to be competitive in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 MODERN DAY ROMANCE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None