Friday 3/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:29 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/8/24

March 8, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, March 8, 2024

RACE 1

5-PETSOLDFASHIONED
Degree of confidence: C+

• Missed by a neck facing similar; not much more will be needed.
• Lands a cozy outside draw; can pop and go or stalk and pounce.
• Switches to Frankie; consistent figures; should have no excuses.

Others to consider: 4-Bowtie Boys.

RACE 2

3-BONAQUA
Degree of confidence: A-

• Classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern; ready to win.
• Rising figures; seems likely to produce another forward move.
• Her pedigree (Tonalist) suggests she will relish a two turn trip.

Others to consider: none.

RACE 3

3-NESSO’S LASTHARRAH
Degree of confidence: B+

• Was worn down late in an off-the-turf sprint facing similar foes.
• Ran a winning race while finishing six lengths clear of the rest.
• Back on turf; graduated over this course and distance two back.

Others to consider: none.

RACE 4

2-HERO STATUS
Degree of confidence: B+

• Away 11 months but has been working lights out for blazing barn.
• In the money in all five starts (two wins) over the local dirt track.
• Fast on figures, likes the front end but can stalk and pounce, too.

Others to consider: 1-Flyiung Drummer; 4-It’s My House.

RACE 5

2-DERECHO DANDY
Degree of confidence: C+

• Lacks a winning punch (1-for-19) but rates top billing by default.
• Stretches out again after a solid runner-up facing similar sprinting.
• One-paced grinder gets a favorable draw and lands leading jockey.

Others to consider: 5-Billy’s Bet.

RACE 6

2-IRISH WAHINE
Degree of confidence: B

• Loves to win races (8-for-20) and shows three scores over local dirt.
• Defeated $20,00 optional claimers; today plummets to the bottom.
• Obviously for sale (issues?) but can win if she has one good one left.

Others to consider: 6-La Paloma Blanca.

RACE 7

2-FLAVIUS
Degree of confidence: B-

• Old-timer regained winning form over course and distance in last race.
• Employs effective stalking style and is perfectly drawn in the two-hole.
• Healthy series of workouts since raced; primed for another top effort.

Others to consider: 5-General Mathis.

RACE 8

1-NAUVOO
Degree of confidence: B+

• Two back-to-back runaway wins with huge figs over track and distance.
• Claimed in last three starts; protected today in first start for C. DeAlba.
• Lands the favorable rail and likely will employ usual gate-to-wire tactics.

Others to consider: 3-Mystic Flyer; 5-California Tiger.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:30 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Late Pick 4 Analysis

March 8, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo begins the weekend with a 10-race card. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

1-Midnight Zen (3-1)-Comes off a sharp score from the 7-hole, eventually got the top and didn't look back. Does bump up but will respect the last effort, using as Luke Plano takes the lines and draws the rail.
2-Bekkums Fancy Star (2-1)-This mare is not close to as good as last year when she won 10 of 34 starts. This was Jacob Cutting's choice over the 1-7-8 and will use but can't fully trust.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

1-Outlawnothnbutsmrt (5-1)-Takes a meaningful drop, should benefit with this post, and can offer a square price. Renee Goulet needs to keep his trainee in striking range and can roll by foes late in the mile.
4-Dougsmonkeybusiness (2-1)-After banking over $100k last year and winning 10 of 26 this 4-year-old seems to have lost its will to win. Difficult to leave off the ticket but it's best to also consider others with more value.
6-El's Disco Johnny (4-1)-Wired the TMR<72 and won easily only to be DQ'D for a pylon violation. Will look for another big effort although faces a bit tougher but should be better than 9/5 tonight.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

1-Ak Up N Attem (6-1)-The 1-26 record at CalX is cause for pause. But comes off two 2nd place finishes and Lemoyne Svendsen will steer for his 3rd straight. May have met a beatable field and could take its 1st picture this year.
2-Powderhouse (3-1)-The Plano trainee also needs to do a bit more to seal the deal. But should be closer to the leader at the top of the lane and if so, could be right there at the wire.
6-Go Viral (9/2)-Willing to toss the last start on a sloppy track, hasn't won in 6 tries on a wet surface. A return to previous form puts this one in the mix in a race without a standout.

Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)

1-Watchmeneighneigh (7/2)-Drops down to the level of a win 2 back. Wired the field on 2-25 with Svendsen between the pipes. This probably won't be as easy as Brett Erickson gets the nod but should be in line for a cozy trip.
3-Changing Colors (2-1)-Svendsen sticks with the Plested trainee, and this mare should relish the company. Has beaten better than this 3 back and the race probably goes through this gal.

0.20 Pick 4

1,2/1,4,6/1,2,6/1,3
Total Bet=$7.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:31 AM

Frank Carulli: Laurel Bet $100, Get $20 | March 8

March 7, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
Round Two of 1/ST Technology‘s “Bet $100/Get $20” promotion at Laurel Park will head to the starting gate this Friday, March 8. All bet types are covered in the month-long promotion, so settle into your comfort zone and take a run at building your bankroll. Here’s my selections, spanning the nine-race card that begins at 12:25 EST:

LRL Race 2 (12:55 p.m. EST) -- IRISH LACE, a $72k earner last year, earned the top speed figure of her career when second last out at 7F. She made a 3-wide run at the dueling leaders, was bumped by morning-line favorite THUNDER BUGGY in mid-stretch and regrouped to finish a clear second after the favorite passed by both of them. She has two photo-finish victories at today’s distance to summon and is worth a leadoff wager.

1/ST Bets on Race 2

$15 win and place on #3 IRISH LACE

LRL Race 3 (1:25 EST) -- PERSPICACIOUS BOY, claimed for $10k out of a debut race won by an odds-on MSW dropper, raced close-up for 6F in a pair of higher-tagged route races before fading. He shows a pair of fast workouts for his return from a five-month layoff and should sit an ideal stalking trip at 7F behind speedy WHERE’S RAY, who could have distance limitations.

1/ST Bets on Race 3

$30 win on #7 PERSPICACIOUS BOY

LRL Race 4 (1:44 p.m. EST) -- Going to build some gimmick wagers around longshot WORKIN ON A DREAM, who got first run on a lead duo that back-pedaled to the back of the field, led at the 1/8th pole and held third behind the deep-closing top pair. The upset winner validated that effort with a runner-up finish next-out for a higher claiming price. He ran an even fourth in his only start sprinting in the last three years, that coming off a six-month layoff. Longshot ONE MORE FACTOR will also appear on the tickets. He has good speed and gets in light-weighted after hitting his best stride in two-turn sprints at Charles Town.

1/ST Bets on Race 4

$5 win and place #10 ONE MORE FACTOR

$3 exacta 10 with 1,2,9

50-Cent Pick 3 (4th-6th races) 9, 10 with ALL with 1,2,6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:33 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Turfway Park - Race #5

#1 New Spell	He's a pretty honest finisher in a race that seems to be crying out for one, but he was a bit underwhelming at a short price last time out, so I'm hoping that number is at least a tiny bit better today.
#4 Blue Nomore	He's probably too cheap for this group off the modest Mahoning tries, but he has run into a couple tough winners and might be in the right kind of spot between the pace and the finishers. Wouldn't shock me to see him outrun his price.
#5 American Memories	Fancy names in the pedigree for the fact that this guy is on sale at first asking, but he's not meeting a particularly deep field today and wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	New Spell has been a good fit at this level in the last two starts, and he should get a really cozy run of things while just in behind the pace. Think he'll graduate today.

Turfway Park - Race #7

#2 Sweet Freedom	He has upside in the second start after rallying with some enthusiasm in the debut here, and having that route experience in the first start could serve him well today.
#5 Anthem King	Probably a top-heavy race between this guy and the next, but I don't know -- he seems to always get himself into a good spot and then just kind of goes flat, and I wouldn't want to be here at too short a price.
#7 Army Officer	He's not impossible, but he has a few lengths to turn on Anthem King today, and believers can hope he'll be tighter this third time around to sustain that run into the stretch.
Race Summary	Sweet Freedom can move forward in this second start, but I do have a mild concern about the race shape in a spot where there doesn't appear to be a ton of pace. A midrange price makes him interesting enough.

Turfway Park - Race #9

#1 Masterofhiscraft	He and the winner of his last flattered that November Fair Grounds allowance that was won by a serious turf horse. Any move forward off the last one would make him a player at a decent price.
#3 Evening News	Capable pace held his own on the rise to try winners after getting claimed out of that $50,000 graduation run, and his speed makes him dangerous right back. Mild worry that he's going to have enough company to bother him.
#5 Gettysburg Address	He faced way better in a couple stakes tries, and it wouldn't be any surprise to see him come to life in a hurry with the locals.
Race Summary	Masterofhiscraft might like the local footing, and I like the way he stepped forward last time out after catching a really sharp winner a couple starts back. Not sure he's 15/1, but still something appealing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:33 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#1 JOYFUL GHOST (5-1)	Hit board in five straight at Tampa, tactical speed comes in handy.
#6 MISTERCHILLIWILLI (9-5)	Ended bout with seconditis two back, favorable post in this field.
#4 CHARLIE LIGHTNING (6-1)	Edged clear in 12-horse field, makes third start of cycle.
Race Summary	With plenty of speed in the race and three entrants starting for new barns, take a chance with class rising JOYFUL GHOST, who at least has shown a stalking gear and can do so from the rail. Bet to win and place.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#4 GOLDEN JUAN (10-1)	Could be long gone on the front end at a big price for high-percentage duo.
#5 GREAT FACES (4-1)	Won 3 of last 8 main-track routes for different barns, enters another one today.
#3 DOIN’ITTHERIGHTWAY (8	Has loyal following, not to mention eights wins and $200k in earnings.
Race Summary	Nothing wrong with GOLDEN JUAN at double-digit odds on the morning line. He chased a fast pace and ‘gained ground late’ to win off the claim, has some big numbers to run back and should lead for as far as he goes in his first route attempt in nearly two years. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-5 exacta box.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#5 TIGGEROO (5-2)	Kept good company, improved with Lasix, projects ideal trip as today’s Best Bet.
#10 JOSH’S DRAMA (4-1)	Finished in money in 4 of last 6 starts, tries turf for the first time.
#3 MAGNUS EFFECT (12-1)	Dueled long way in debut, hopped at break in faster-paced follow-up.
Race Summary	TIGGEROO is a good bet at anywhere near his 5-2 morning line. He got up for third behind the co-favorites in a higher-tagged route on the all-weather track with first-time Lasix. He was no factor in his first two starts on turf but faced the likes of Edgartown, who tested stakes company twice, and Hot N Lucky, who repeated (through disqualification) in a $35,000 optional claiming race. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $59,000 • Post: 4:37P
GP - R8 - (RAIL AT 45 FEET). FOR STATE BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE$20,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. TAP GOLD is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * DIAMOND COOL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SOCIALLONGDISTANCE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CLASSIC MO TOWN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHANKAR: Horse has the highest TrackMa ster Power Rating. FAST FIXER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
2	DIAMOND COOL	15/1	6/1
4	SOCIALLONGDISTANCE	2/1	6/1
8	CLASSIC MO TOWN	7/2	7/1
5	SHANKAR	8/1	8/1
3	FAST FIXER	12/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	TAP GOLD	6	6/1	Front-runner	87	82	0.0	0.0	0.0
3	FAST FIXER	3	12/1	Stalker	88	82	86.3	61.6	48.6
2	DIAMOND COOL	2	15/1	Stalker	83	82	74.0	77.0	70.0
4	SOCIALLONGDISTANCE	4	2/1	Stalker	91	95	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	SHANKAR	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	87	63.5	42.7	35.2
8	CLASSIC MO TOWN	8	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	89	87	54.8	65.3	57.8
1	CAPTAIN ANTHONY	1	4/1	Trailer	92	85	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	BOLD MAJESTIC	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	87	82	25.0	42.9	31.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:35 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Cross Country Pick FourPURCHASE

Cross Country Pick Four - Race 3	Leg C of the Cross Country Pick 5
Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 95 • Purse: $32,000 • Post: 4:50P
OP - R7 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 8, 2023. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 8, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 8, 2023 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $7,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BIZZY LEGS: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. CANADIAN PHAROAH: Hor se has a TrackMaster "B" designation. GREATHEART: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KOWBOYKABIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TEST PILOT: Horse ranks in the top thre e in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	BIZZY LEGS	8/1	5/1
7	CANADIAN PHAROAH	15/1	6/1
9	GREATHEART	3/1	7/1
5	KOWBOYKABIN	8/1	8/1
13	TEST PILOT	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	KOWBOYKABIN	4	8/1	Front-runner	86	95	83.1	82.2	69.7
10	DEVOTED TO YOU	10	30/1	Front-runner	96	91	78.5	53.6	37.1
6	BIZZY LEGS	5	8/1	Front-runner	97	92	72.6	80.6	76.1
3	DREWPOWER	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	89	78.8	77.0	64.0
13	TEST PILOT	13	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	93	90	71.8	84.8	74.3
9	GREATHEART	9	3/1	Trailer	99	89	66.0	79.6	75.6
1A	TURN ON THE MAGIC	14	7/2	Trailer	86	76	59.2	72.2	51.7
1	EGO	6	7/2	Trailer	86	77	54.4	71.2	45.7
11	SEASIDE BOY	11	30/1	Trailer	90	90	50.2	76.2	57.2
2	CALIFORNIA SWING	1	9/2	Trailer	95	73	36.6	73.4	56.4
7	CANADIAN PHAROAH	7	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	99	97	74.2	84.8	77.3
4	MAKE NOISE	3	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	87	65.8	77.8	63.3
8	DEEP STATE	8	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	92	78.2	74.8	53.8
12	EL FRANCO	12	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	91	76	65.6	74.0	55.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #9 - Post: 5:06pm - Maiden Special - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $89,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#4 TAPE RUNNER (ML=6/1)
#6 LATTE LIZZIE (ML=9/5)
#3 JESSAMINE HILL (ML=5/2)

TAPE RUNNER - This thoroughbred could be tough this race, especially since Egan rode last out and now should be plenty familiar with this one. I just may give this one a good chance. Should rebound off last race where she did run out of the money, but was within five lengths at the end. That last morning drill tells me this filly is set for a top performance. Barboza will try adding blinks today in hopes of an improved performance. LATTE LIZZIE - This filly's last speed rating is high enough to score here, I'll wager on her right back today. Ranked at the top in earnings per race. Another indicator that this equine is the class of the field. Brown moves this filly to the dirt today. Look for a significant improvement from the most recent turf race. Generally speaking, horses on Lasix for the first time should be considered. That's what we have here. JESSAMINE HILL - I'll bet that this filly even surprised her connections when she made her bow on Feb 3rd and finished second. This filly should improve after adding Lasix in the last race and getting it again today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GILD THE LILY (ML=9/2), #1 REDO (ML=8/1),

GILD THE LILY - Doesn't appear to be in a comfortable spot this time around. REDO - Awfully difficult to bet on this runner when she hasn't been showing any signs of readiness recently. Pedestrian rating last time out at Gulfstream Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this racer will improve too much in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - LATTE LIZZIE - This steed should be your gambling choice today. This filly has posted improving speed figures in her last two events.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 TAPE RUNNER to win. Have to have odds of at least 4/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[3,4,6] with [3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] with [1,2,3,4,6] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Sunland Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32000 Class Rating: 82

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 FAST TRAFFIC 8/5
# 5 GALACTIC CORE 5/1
# 8 AZTEC SUN 9/5

FAST TRAFFIC is my choice. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this competition. This gelding has to be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint races alone. Has to be carefully examined - I like the figs from the last race. GALACTIC CORE - This colt could improve on Lasix. Put up a solid Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. AZTEC SUN - Has been racing solidly and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of competitive win percentage - 17 percent - at this distance & surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 IRISH WAHINE 8/5
# 6 LA PALOMA BLANCA 6/1
# 5 TROUBLE N PARADISE 4/1

I've got to go with IRISH WAHINE. Has very good Equibase Speed Figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. Could beat this group of horses in this race given the 93 speed figure recorded in her last outing. Must be carefully examined given the class of races run lately. LA PALOMA BLANCA - Posted a reliable Equibase speed fig in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. Rispoli has a win percent of 18 over the last month. TROUBLE N PARADISE - Will most likely go to the front end and could never look back. Should finish in the money without any trouble.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-08-2024, 07:36 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #4 - Post: 2:17pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#1 MISCHIEVOUS MAX (ML=3/1)

MISCHIEVOUS MAX - Esquivel comes to ride after getting to know the colt in the last contest. Taking a trip to a lower level; has the ability to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 EQUATE (ML=7/2), #8 BOURBON ON FIRE (ML=9/2), #4 CHADRON (ML=5/1),

BOURBON ON FIRE - Should have at least hit the board in the last 60 days in a short distance affair to be any kind of value at modest odds in a sprint. This vulnerable equine has had no success at Oaklawn Park. CHADRON - Didn't show off any zip in the route affair for me to back him in today's sprint clash. Recent deteriorating Equibase speed figures of 59/53/48 give a sign that this horse may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #1 MISCHIEVOUS MAX to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip