Tuesday 3/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #2

#2 Step Ahead	He needed cheaper to graduate, but I like the fact that he comes right back in a reasonable spot off that easy win. Think he's in the mix in an iffy race.
#1 Insaciable Prince	He's actually one of the obvious players in here despite taking 38 starts to graduate, as he has turned in a couple underneath shares since rising to try winners. Along for another piece.
#4 Small Sailor	Dropper wasn't totally embarrassed with allowance company in the local debut last time out, and he should be in a really good spot right up near the splits.
Race Summary	Tough to split a few of these, but Step Ahead might offer something just playable on the tote board, and he might be able to win right back after a sharp finishing score last out.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#3 Gold Honey	She's back quick off the underneath share in stakes company last time out, and she might offer a playable enough price with a couple of high-ceiling runners entered in today. Capable tracking pace.
#2 Officially Yours	Not much wrong on the form here, especially after turning in a couple of easy scores late last year, and she should find herself in another good spot right up on the pace.
#6 Amy's Star	She is another riding a two-race winning streak, and she draws well to watch everything unfold from a prompting spot. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Tough race here, but I'm hoping the flashy recent running lines from Officially Yours and Amy's Star will leave Gold Honey at a mildly playable price after trying stakes company last out.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#3 Nublada	I fear she's going to be a short price today, but she finds a pretty modest group while rising to try winners off that super-sharp debut romp. Tough right back.
#6 Kiss Me Quick	She seems like the main danger in a race without much depth, and she's coming out of a race that I liked a little bit. Gorham stablemates should settle this score.
#2 Spooky Little Girl	Pace needed to drop in with claimers to graduate, but she did it the right way when wiring that group by better than six. Think she might be able to dispatch the pace on the fence, but the top choice is likely to be breathing down her neck the entire way, too.
Race Summary	Nublada was a solid press-and-pounce winner in the debut run, and I think that kind of performance bodes well for something competitive with better. If you're looking to beat her, you can point to that debut having come in a weak spot that was begging for a fresh face.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Turf Paradise - Race #6

#5 LORD BO (9-2)	Turning heads in the morning for barn on a 7-for-20 run in the last 30 days.
#1 SHUDDER (3-1)	Has good speed and the rail, has to carry it farther.
#2 MOON SHINE TIME (5-1)	Useful first start in Arizona-bred stakes, gets Lasix again.
Race Summary	LORD BO shows a solid work tab for his debut, most recently a 1:01-2/5 gate move. His dam, Royal Fashion, ran second in the Turf Paradise Spring Futurity in her debut at this distance. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #7

#1 EYES FOR GOLD (9-2)	Ran to fast workouts for new barn, ran second to the favorite.
#8 FIXURHAIRUPRETTY (2-1)	Buried weak field in long sprint in second start off 10-month layoff.
#6 AUTISM COUNTS (6-1)	Golden Gate shipper broke maiden at distance, must stay in contact early.
Race Summary	EYES FOR GOLD, plagued by troubled starts last year, seeks a duplicate of her seasonal debut. She chased the winning favorite and gained late in the 4-path. She won going away the last time she ran 5-1/2F at Emerald Downs. Bet to win and place.

Turf Paradise - Race #8

#6 DAHLIA’S DANCER (4-1)	In good form to start 4-year-old season, fits conditions well.
#8 COALINGA HILL (8-1)	Chased fast pace, didn’t lose ground, stands 6/2-2-2 at distance.
#9 SOFIA STRONG (2-1)	Dominated at bottom level at Mountaineer, makes second start locally.
Race Summary	DAHLIA’S DANCER was pressured on the lead and bore out into the stretch when third at this level two starts ago, but she bounced back to pass the 8-to-5 pace setter and win for a higher claiming price. Bet to win and place and play a 6-8-9 exacta box.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race 1	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double (.50) Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / (.50) Pick 5 (Races 1-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 1:15P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. PRINCESS BALL is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCESS BALL: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ra nks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	PRINCESS BALL	2/1	9/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	WHERESTHECARTGIRL	6	3/1	Front-runner	58	49	54.0	36.4	28.4
1	GODDESS OF WONDER	1	5/1	Front-runner	52	42	51.5	33.2	22.7
3	RAINING	3	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	53	51	40.5	41.6	33.6
5	PRINCESS BALL	5	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	61	58.6	50.6	48.1
2	HANGXIETY	2	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	47	55	47.6	43.0	38.5
4	MS. HILLARY	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	42	46.8	33.1	24.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5)/ Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 76 • Purse: $21,000 • Post: 1:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 12 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * WYNN GIANT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SECRET ALLIANCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. HASTEN THENCE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RUNNIN JOKE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
7	WYNN GIANT	5/2	9/2
4	SECRET ALLIANCE	10/1	5/1
5	HASTEN THENCE	3/1	7/1
6	RUNNIN JOKE	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DISTURBED	1	10/1	Front-runner	75	68	72.4	60.6	48.6
6	RUNNIN JOKE	6	5/1	Front-runner	68	71	71.6	65.2	57.2
5	HASTEN THENCE	5	3/1	Stalker	67	79	63.0	74.7	70.7
2	CHIP'S FRIEND	2	6/1	Stalker	78	62	51.6	44.6	32.6
4	SECRET ALLIANCE	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	85	66.8	67.0	60.5
7	WYNN GIANT	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	83	77	63.0	73.0	70.0
3	AFY KID	3	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	65	65.4	63.6	53.6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $18,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#4 RISQUE'S JEWEL (ML=5/2)


RISQUE'S JEWEL - This horse's last race was out at Penn National in a race with a class rating of 75. Dropping considerably in class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in this event. Out of the money finish last race out at Penn National was better than it looked on paper. She improved position down the lane and never gave up. This mare looks like a natural router, based on efforts in last 2 sprint races. Just check out her recent speed figure, 60. That one looks good in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HIGHTIME VALENTINE (ML=9/5), #1 CARLY HUSTLE (ML=9/2), #3 CANOOCHEE (ML=8/1),

HIGHTIME VALENTINE - If you keep playing these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be let down most of the time. CARLY HUSTLE - The result of sixth in the last race shows me that this equine may be going out of form. Recent lessening Equibase speed figures of 52/45/39 give a sign that this equine may be going off form. When checking today's class figure, she will have to record a better speed rating than in the last race to compete in this dirt route. CANOOCHEE - This mare finished outside the top 3 on January 10th and wasn't close to victory in the last race either. The speed rating last time out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this entrant as a likely underpriced equine.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - RISQUE'S JEWEL - Made a nice move in the stretch last race out. Will take to the added distance today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 RISQUE'S JEWEL is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Mahoning Valley Race Course

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33700 Class Rating: 67

FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 NUBLADA 1/1
# 6 KISS ME QUICK 5/2
# 4 OH EYE SEE 20/1

NUBLADA has a formidable shot to take this race. She has been running soundly and the Equibase speed figs are among the top in this group. Win percentage one of the best in this field. Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this field in her last race. KISS ME QUICK - As of late Gorham has provided players with a strong winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Might wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ARIZONA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 MS MOIRA ROSE 9/2
# 3 MAGIC KING CORONA 5/2
# 7 DOUBLE A EAGLE 4/1

MS MOIRA ROSE looks formidable to best this field. Competitive venture today with second time Lasix. Trainer has very solid win rate (15 percent) at this distance and surface. Will more than likely be one of the leaders of the pack going into the midpoint of the affair. MAGIC KING CORONA - Is hard not to look at based on Equibase Speed Figs which have been very good - 63 avg - of late. Ought to be given a shot in this contest if only for the very strong Equibase Speed Figure put up in the last competition. DOUBLE A EAGLE - Fales has a solid 15 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. With one of the strongest jock in terms of gains at the window, don't count this gelding out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #2 - Post: 1:42pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 53

Rating:

#4 I BILEVE (ML=5/2)


I BILEVE - Trainer Swan moves this horse to a lower class level to face weaker company. Look for a good effort in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GOSPEL SPEAR (ML=2/1), #3 BACK STREET BABY (ML=4/1), #2 DARETOCATCHLOVE (ML=5/1),

GOSPEL SPEAR - Can't play this morning-line favorite off the extended vacation. Tough to keep chasing this kind of 'hanger' horse. BACK STREET BABY - Would have to improve off that eighth place finish last time to make an impact here. This entrant ran a mediocre rating last time around the track. She shouldn't run much better and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that rating. DARETOCATCHLOVE - This filly made little impact last time out of the box. Doubtful that the rating she recorded on December 13th will be good enough in this affair.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 I BILEVE to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip