Friday 3/15/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:41 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 15, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 10-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 7. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (8:45 PM PST)

4-Rock's Image (8-1)-Will look for a solid price in the opening leg in what could be a chalky sequence otherwise. This 9-year-old cashed checks facing Open company and now drops to a level where a picture is more likely. Gerry Longo steers his own, should be racing near the top of the stack when the wings fold and can score with an efficient trip.
5-Ragged But Right (5-1)-The 7-year-old has hit the board in 28 of 41 races at CalX and has taken 7 pictures. Also, drops out of the Opens and gets a +++ driver change in Jacob Cutting. Should be a player and will look for an aggressive steer.
6-Dancin Lance (5-1)-It seems like Father Time may have caught up to the 8-year-old, but this is another who gets class relief and a positive driver change in Nick Roland grabbing the lines. Best to respect, and hopefully won't be over bet.
7-Unfiltered (8-1)-Beat this kind, then moved up to face Open company and raced well. Drops back to the level of the last win and could be overlooked. Would love to see at least 8-1, has been competitive at this level and looks like a gimmick use as well.

Race 8 (9:05 PM PST)

2-Pecorino (5/2)-Tried to get on engine last week and faded to finish 2nd. That was a good effort especially considering only 1-42 since the start of 2023. Beaten chalk comes right back at the same TM level and Cutting sticks. This time may not look to cut the mile.
8-Hunky Dory (7/2)-Left from the 1-hole and tried to wire better. Drops and this should be a more comfortable level to seal the deal. Has hit the board in 12 of 15 at CalX and did post 6 wins. Luke Plano should have in striking range turning for the wire.

Race 9 (9:25 PM PST)

4-Chandon (4-1)-Paced the back half in 57.1 to break its maiden and bumps up but still should be heard from. Cutting takes over for Plano who picks the program chalk #3. Has hit the board in 6 of 7 at CalX, will look for an efficient trip and some pace to close into.
5-Anotherv Tuff Woman (5/2)-Even money chalk posted a strong win last time in California Sires Stakes action. The filly faces older, and this will be a test but will look for a strong steer by James Kennedy at a fair price.

Race 10 (9:45 PM PST)

3-Polk Dotlady (9/5)-Drew off by 9-length versus younger and appears to land in a favorable TM level. This is another hodgepodge affair and not loving the short price but needs to be respected.
7-Lickcreek Speedway (7/2)-Was 10-lengths back at the 1st call and Cutting got the mare going in the 2nd half. Came home with a .56 back half and missed by a nose. The same pilot returns for his 2nd drive on the veteran and may not be denied tonight.

0.20 Pick 4

4,5,6,7/2,8/4,5/3,7
Total Bet=$6.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:41 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/15/24

March 15, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Friday, March 15, 2024

RACE 1

1-AMERICANDREAMMAKER
Degree of confidence: B-

• Lightly raced American Pharoah filly is a progressive sort.
• Guaranteed a ground saving trip from her good rail draw.
• Retains top rider Juan Hernandez, should be along in time.

Others to consider: 5-Tahini.

RACE 2

3-LANSDOWNE (GB)
Degree of confidence: B+

• Plummets in class for aggressive barn and returns to the dirt.
• Earned huge figure two runs back over this track and distance.
• Modest pace flow; should be on or near the lead throughout.

Others to consider: 1-Elevado.

RACE 3

4-CREATIVE QUALITY
Degree of confidence: C+

• First time in for a tag; adds Lasix and takes off the blinkers.
• Lugged out badly and finished far back; better than that.
• Earned a speed figure in her debut up north that can win.

Others to consider: 2-We’ll Do It Live; 6-Nanci Griffith.

RACE 4

6-ARINNITI (FR)
Degree of confidence: C+

• Chased infinitely tougher foes in first two West Coast outings.
• Shows up in a soft restricted (nw-2) claimer, found her friends?
• Earned figures that fit well here and is the top pick by default.

Others to consider: 2-Topolina.

RACE 5

3-ACE ACE BABY
Degree of confidence: B-

• Known element does not impress so a first timer can win.
• Workouts are okay; barn does well with debut runners.
• Daughter of Stanford has shown some “try” in team drills.

Others to consider: 5-Perfect in Gray.

RACE 6

2-ISSA COURT
Degree of confidence: C+

• Failed to fire in downhill turf sprint but remains protected.
• Stretches out again and projects to enjoy a second flight trip.
• Winless in four starts over the local lawn but figs are okay.

Others to consider: 7-Illhaveanotherkiss; 3-Sand to Sea.

RACE 7

5-SPECIAL CLUB
Degree of confidence: B+

• Close fourth in comeback on grass; seems sure to improve.
• Shortens to a sprint, switches to dirt, gets blinkers and Juan.
• Only prior main track outing was good; can tag the speed.

Others to consider: 4-Known Idea.

RACE 8

1-TARANTINO
Degree of confidence: B+

• First race off the claim for Mark Glatt (23% with this angle).
• Protected in a starter allowance race in a sign of confidence.
• Gets the good rail, picks up leading pilot; been facing tougher.

Others to consider: 7-Mubtadaa.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:42 AM

Laurel Park Bet $100/Get $20

March 15, 2024 | By Frank Carulli
LAUREL PARK BET $100, GET $20
Friday, March 15

Bet $100 and Get $20. Sounds good, doesn’t it? It’s happening every Friday in March at Laurel Park, compliments of 1/ST Technology. Make any bets you want to qualify – win, exacta, daily double, trifecta, you name it. Here’s my picks for the nine-race card this Friday, March 15:

LRL Race 3 (1:25 p.m. EST) -- DAVYJONZ passed his first long-distance test, riding the rail after a bumpy start and getting up for second behind a runaway favorite dropping from Maiden Special Weight company. GLASS OF COURAGE finished in the money in five consecutive route races at this level to start his career, all but one of which produced a follow-up winner. Use those two runners in the leadoff leg of a Pick 3 ticket and cap the sequence with a solo play on RILEY G in the fifth race. RILEY G has been a money burner, but he blew a clear lead two starts back at this distance on a day when four deep closers won on the card. Then he lost all chance at the start in a 6F sprint at Penn National, rallying too late for third.

1/ST Bets on Race 3
$15 win and place #5 DAVYJONZ
$2 Pick 3 on numbers 2, 5 with ALL with 2
$2 Pick 3 on numbers 5-5-2

LRL Race 6 (2:52 p.m. EST) -- BUMP N RUN raced 4-wide most of the way from the outside post at Parx, but he still managed to surge past the 3-to-5 favorite on a muddy track. His repeat victory came at the expense of a next-out winner and two next-out runners-up who posted an average 87 Beyer. He is a must play at 12-1 on the morning line after posting a :47 bullet workout Sunday. Going to use him in an exacta box with: speedball ROMINSKI (5-1), a wire-to-wire winner in three consecutive starts; OURNATIONONPARADE (8-1), an upset winner against several of these on the cutback to 6F; and NO CENTS (8-1), a consistent $219,000 earner at 6F.

1/ST Bets on Race 6
$10 win and place on #10 BUMP N RUN
$2 exacta box on numbers 1-2-9-10
$2 daily double on numbers 1, 2, 10 with 3, 5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:43 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Fair Grounds - Race #1

#5 Tough Little Nut	Finisher beat a modest group at Hawthorne in his only turf sprint try, but he backed that up with a good run when second in a stakes spot at Kentucky Downs. Appealing enough off the bench.
#8 Classic Power	Nothing wrong with the turf form for this guy, and I think you can safely draw a line through the main-track try last time out. Something like the two-back run might do.
#3 Committee of One	He's probably tough in here while getting back to the turf, as he has a grassy class edge on these and was only two lengths off a very well-meant Euro Breeders' Cup winner.
Race Summary	Tough Little Nut has some price appeal in here while turning back off the bench, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him share with one of the other logical players lined up today.

Fair Grounds - Race #2

#3 Higher Note	She has had some chances already and has proven pretty hit or miss over the local footing, but she ran OK in a couple starts here last year and has some occasional finishing form that might work in her favor in a race with almost no proven late punch. Think she has a sneaky chance in the second start back.
#11 Straight Meadow	Get a look at her on the tote and track ahead of this, as she'll go first time out with a solid string of works and a decent draw to potentially try to track the splits. Wouldn't surprise in a bad spot.
#5 Chrome Racer	She has some even kinds of running lines that could keep her in a spot to get past a few of these late, but I'd want something better than the 9/5 offering from the modest try last out.
Race Summary	Higher Note showed little in the comeback run, but there is presumably a little upside off that try, and I like the potential race shape he'll get to work with today. The price should be right to see if he can get involved today.

Fair Grounds - Race #8

#10 Stephanie's Maria	Dropper showed a little life when getting in for a tag for the first time, and now they'll cut the price in half with a couple running lines that would make her tough from an outside spying spot.
#3 Customerunhappy	Pace drops in with claimers for the first time, and she figures to be right in the frame early with these. There isn't a ton of other serious early burn lined up, so she might hit hard from right up top.
#8 Truthrdaar	She'll go off the claim today with some upside in the second start, and it always seems like at least a mildly good sign when someone jumps in for a cheap one at first asking.
Race Summary	Stephanie's Maria has the right style and class to land this while dropping, but I could also be convinced to take a much longer look at Truthrdaar -- especially if the price starts to get short on 'Maria.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:43 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #1

#5 FULL PROOF (3-1)	Took the money but didn’t run far at 6F, takes another class drop, stretches out.
#6 TUBTIMSIAM (8-1)	Ran away from the pursuing favorite to break maiden at this level and distance.
#4 ASCENDANCE (2-1)	Lone win was on the sprint-to-route angle, returns to level of claim.
Race Summary	FULL PROOF fired a bullet workout before he was made the favorite for his second start off a four-month layoff. He pressed the early pace, couldn’t keep up in the stretch, but finished ahead of a next-out $16k winner. He could be the target today in his first route attempt. Play a 5-ALL exacta.

Laurel Park - Race #2

#1 CASINO TRICKS (5-2)	Answered challenge in a big way, ideally spotted for repeat victory.
#7 ALIFEROUS (8-1)	Can rally into gimmick wagers but must stay in closer contact early.
#4 GUAPO AGAIN (9-5)	Showed good zip in ‘key’ race, drops in claiming price for third start of year.
Race Summary	CASINO TRICKS got focused when the blinkers were removed in his last start. He repelled a challenge by the favorite on the turn and drew off to a 6-1/2-length victory at this distance. The runner-up came back to win a $16,000 starter allowance by open lengths at Parx. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #9

#4 LUNITA (15-1)	Speed makes her an upset possibility for new connections.
#6 IRISH LACE (3-1)	Won in four photo finishes in her last 12 starts, now enters hot barn.
#7 FANCY PRINCESS (7-2)	Chased Irish Lace and finishes a length behind in long sprint.
Race Summary	LUNITA, rank at the start last out and wide from post 10 in the race prior, can make good use of her speed in this spot. The barn is winless since 2020 with 14 ’first off the claims,’ but her 15-1 morning line price makes it worth a win and place bet.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 4	Exacta ($1), Quinella ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 4 &5 Pick 3 ($1) (4-6), Grand Slam ($1) (4-7), Late Pick 5 (.50) (4-8)
Claiming $40,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $60,000 • Post: 2:55P
(UP TO $10,440 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $32,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SELF ISOLATION: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TAMING THE TIGRESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. ANONYMOUSLY: Horse's win perc entage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHESALITTLE EDGY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	SELF ISOLATION	9/5	4/1
2B	TAMING THE TIGRESS	9/5	6/1
4	ANONYMOUSLY	9/2	9/1
5	SHESALITTLE EDGY	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SHESALITTLE EDGY	5	5/2	Front-runner	94	83	84.0	73.4	60.4
2	SELF ISOLATION	6	9/5	Front-runner	99	95	69.4	86.8	83.8
2B	TAMING THE TIGRESS	8	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	98	95	59.0	82.8	78.8
1A	ICY REPLY	3	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	86	58.2	78.0	65.5
4	ANONYMOUSLY	4	9/2	Trailer	93	84	72.8	81.2	74.2
3	PRETTI XTREME	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	82	32.2	80.6	72.6
1	JACKIE THE JOKER	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	79	56.2	73.6	60.1
6	REMAIN ANONYMOUS	7	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	79	39.6	74.8	65.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:44 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour WagersPURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race 4	Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick 4 Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Double
SO $10,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • All-Weather • Ages 4 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $12,500 • Post: 4:54P
GG - R7 - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $10,000. WEIGHT, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES FOR $5,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. TIGER QUEEN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIGER QUEEN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CODE RIBBON: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. MO TOWN GAL: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). MAJESTIC GIG: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 da ys.
4	TIGER QUEEN	2/1	9/2
7	CODE RIBBON	3/1	6/1
2	MO TOWN GAL	4/1	7/1
1	MAJESTIC GIG	5/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	HEART ON THE RUN	5	12/1	Front-runner	83	76	88.8	66.0	56.0
6	GRAZEN DEB	6	8/1	Front-runner	84	77	88.6	56.2	44.2
1	MAJESTIC GIG	1	5/1	Front-runner	81	81	78.0	64.2	56.2
4	TIGER QUEEN	4	2/1	Stalker	86	87	77.2	84.2	80.7
2	MO TOWN GAL	2	4/1	Trailer	84	86	68.6	81.4	72.4
7	CODE RIBBON	7	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	88	89	53.6	75.0	69.5
3	OAT MILK LATTE	3	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	77	26.9	61.5	54.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - SA - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $39000 Class Rating: 103

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 TARANTINO 5/1
# 3 EXPLAIN THIS AUDIT 6/1
# 6 CLASSIC CREATION 8/1

TARANTINO is tough to overlook as the wager in here. In this field, this horse is highly ranked earnings per start in turf route contests. He has very good class ratings, averaging 106, and has to be given a shot for this event. Has to be given consideration versus this field displaying strong figures recently and an average speed rating of 97 under similar conditions. CLASSIC CREATION - Trainer has strong win rate (20 percent) at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #5 - Post: 2:24pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $47,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#2 RILEY G (ML=2/1)

RILEY G - This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Russell. This rider and handler are dependable together. Winning pct when teamed up is hard to top. Faced tougher last time out at Penn National. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker bunch, so I will put this horse on my list of strong contenders.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 LUTE WARM (ML=9/5), #3 DYNAMISM (ML=3/1), #5 DARK PRINCESS (ML=6/1),

LUTE WARM - Almost certainly won't make much of an impact this time around. DYNAMISM - Don't think this mount is worth 3/1 in this event. DARK PRINCESS - That was merely not a very good exhibition in the last race. This filly recorded a speed fig in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - RILEY G - Having the best speed fig last race of 66 at Penn National on Feb 7th. This filly has an excellent chance to win here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 RILEY G is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turfway Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 83

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000, FOR EACH $500 TO $7,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 ROLLESTON 10/1
# 1 ANAITA 5/1
# 4 STACY ATTACK 10/1

ROLLESTON seems to be the bet in here and could score at a price in here. Has been running very well lately and will almost certainly be up on the lead early on. As of late Concepcion has been on fire which may give the edge to this mare. ANAITA - With a very good 78 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will unquestionably be a factor in this contest. Must be used in the exotic bets. STACY ATTACK - Displays solid Equibase speed figs on average overall when matched with the rest of this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-15-2024, 07:45 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Fonner Park - Race #5 - Post: 4:48pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $5,600 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#6 BREWSKY (ML=8/1)

BREWSKY - Traditional handicapping theory - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This horse is live today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 WATERS OF MEROM (ML=2/1), #5 LONESHILOHSPECIAL (ML=3/1), #4 REMARKABLE CHARM (ML=9/2),

WATERS OF MEROM - This entrant hasn't shown much life in the last pair of affairs. LONESHILOHSPECIAL - 3/1 is too short of a reward to take on most any thoroughbred that has run poorly in back to back outings. REMARKABLE CHARM - You figure that this horse is going to be first just because she's always close. Just doesn't win often. Improbable that the fig she garnered on March 1st will be enough in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BREWSKY - Trainer (Johnson) dropped this horse last out, and keeps her at the same class level today. Based on my data, this level suits her well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 BREWSKY to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None