Sunday 3/17/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 09:58 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 3/17/24

March 17, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Sunday, March 17, 2024

RACE 1

6-IRISH ROSE
Degree of confidence: B+

• Has a history of running well fresh and shows sharp comeback drills.
• Strong runner-up over this course and distance in her debut last year.
• Barn has solid stats with layoff runners; 8-1 morning line offers value.

Others to consider: 3-Strikingly; 8-Special Flower.

RACE 2

3-PAT’S PADDOCK PICK
Degree of confidence: B

• Recent second at this level in a fast race; catches an easier field today.
• Retains top jockey Juan Hernandez, projects to be on or near the lead.
• Two easy breezes since raced and has room for another forward move.

Others to consider: 2-Thales; 1-American Cat.

RACE 3

1-CATMANSUE
Degree of confidence: B

• Was green (lugged in) when nosed out facing similar last month.
• Good rail draw ensures a ground-saving trip, can step forward.
• Likes to settle early and accelerate late; H. Berrios stays aboard.

Others to consider: 4-Two By Four; 5-Beer Money.

RACE 4

6-GAVEA
Degree of confidence: B+

• Shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out angle, theft on agenda.
• First time gelding after flashing speed, then fading, facing straight maidens.
• Projects to easily clear this field without undue pressure and keep on going.

Others to consider: 1-Ringtone.

RACE 5

1-ZOFARELLI (IRE)
Degree of confidence: C+

• Back sprinting after flattening out over a mile at this level last month,
• Was a clever winner over this course and distance two races back.
• Facing more early speed today but can be effective from a stalking spot.

Others to consider: 6-Mas Rapido; 7-Escape Route.

RACE 6

5-BIT’S TIGER MAGIC
Degree of confidence: B+

• Bred to win early (Smiling Tiger) and looks live in a moderate affair.
• Half mile gate breeze last Monday (:47 1/5) really caught the eye.
• Known element lacks early speed, so she could be long gone early.

Others to consider: 2-Raising Silver; 6-Roberta’s Love.

RACE 7

4-CHANCERY WAY
Degree of confidence: B

• Lost a heartbreaker over this course and distance in state-bred stakes.
• Knows where the wire is; shows seven victories from 13 career starts.
• Most effective when able to control a race from beginning to end.

Others to consider: 3-Stay and Scam.

RACE 8

2-THE BULLION BOMBER (IRE)
Degree of confidence: C+

• Stretched out after a series of sprints and dominated gate to wire.
• Earned by far a career top speed figure; wheeled back in seven days.
• Hooking other speed today (Departure); will have to work harder early.

Others to consider: 3-Departure.

RACE 9

1-CALM SEA
Degree of confidence: B+

• Gets the favorable rail and can take full advantage of the early dog leg.
• Clearly the controlling speed and based on pace projection will be tough.
• Finished fourth (beaten one length) facing similar but went too fast early.

Others to consider: 2-Maltese Falcon; 3-Order and Law.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 09:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

March 17, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has a 12-race card set to go and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (8:10 PM PST)

4-Allmyx'sliventexas (5/2)-This looks like a 2-horse race as the others appear to be battling for minor spoils in the CalX
"Free for All" pace. This 11-year-old has shown its age the past couple of years but should be a major player versus this field if dialed on high.
5-Handsome Harvey (2-1)-This looks like the horse to beat but isn't completely trustworthy. It will probably come down to Luke Plano getting a pocket ride behind the one above and taking a big swing going down the lane.

Race 10 (8:30 PM PST)

1-Tss Hot House (7/2)-The 4 trotters in this field standout over the pacers for a change. This mare wired the last field with a sharp effort. Looking for a similar plan and the race will likely go through this 4-year-old.
2-Snap Krackle Ntrot (2-1)-Was 10-lengths back at the 1st call and just missed by a head of catching the one above. James Kennedy should get off the gate in better shape and looks like a main player again.

Race 11 (8:50 PM PST)

1-Captain Keen (2-1)-Will anticipate a cozy trip and should seal the deal if that is the case. Gets an inside draw and that could be a winning edge over the 2nd morning line choice #6 Gorgeous For Real. Will single, and hope Sean Smithpeters provides a smooth steer.

Race 12 (9:10 PM PST)

3-Seek And Destroy (6-1)-Spreading a bit in this leg, will look for a price and fade the 2 program chalks (1/4). Team Goulet trainee raced better in the 1st start off the bench and just missed by a nose. Had breaking issues and was handled conservatively but kept coming. Will look for the upswing to continue at a square price.
7-The Last Waltz (10-1)-Went free-legged for the 1st time on 3-10 and raced well. That was the 1st start since 11-17 and will look for continued improvement. Jacob Cutting makes his 2nd appearance on the Renee Goulet trainee.
8-Sweet Timber (5-1)-This Sweet Lou 4-year-old is either hot or cold. This year, mostly cold going 1-9 but has a shot to surprise if comes with a big try. There is little gate speed in this group. Jim Lackey could leave and land on top and the gelding seems to race better on the lead.

$1 Pick 4

4,5/1,2/1/3,7,8
Total Bet=$12

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 09:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Aqueduct

PURCHASE

Aqueduct - Race 5	Exacta ($1), Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double ($1) 5 &6, Pick 3 ($1) (5-7) Pick 4 (.50) (5-8)
Claiming $20,000 • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 94 • Purse: $44,000 • Post: 3:27P
FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (MAIDEN AND CLAIMING RACES FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. HANG TIGHT is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * CANDY TYCOON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rati ng. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. COLLOQUY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three i n average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
6	CANDY TYCOON	4/1	5/2
3	COLLOQUY	6/5	7/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PHOEBE'S FROSTY	1	12/1	Front-runner	84	78	89.8	61.5	50.5
6	CANDY TYCOON	6	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	101	95	74.7	89.3	84.3
5	LORD GATLING	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	86	71.4	77.0	68.5
3	COLLOQUY	3	6/5	Stalker	98	98	69.2	91.2	87.7
7	MAJESTIC FRONTIER	7	5/2	Stalker	88	88	66.6	77.6	69.6
2	HANG TIGHT	2	15/1	Trailer	86	77	52.8	69.6	60.6
4	DATESFREEDOM	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	87	80	38.2	68.6	58.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 09:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Coast To CoastPURCHASE

Coast To Coast - Race 1	Race 9 from Gulfstream Park Leg A of the Coast to Coast Pick 5
Optional Claiming $62,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $92,000 • Post: 5:07P
GP - R9 - RACE 9 FROM GULFSTREAM PARK. FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 17, 2023 OR CLAIMING PRICE $62,500. WEIGHT,123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $62,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * KATHLEEN O.: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the hig hest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. SCYLLA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. ABUNDANCIA: Horse's win percenta ge at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	KATHLEEN O.	10/1	4/1
5	SCYLLA	6/5	6/1
9	ABUNDANCIA	12/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BETH'S DREAM	7	4/1	Front-runner	94	84	73.8	89.0	82.5
9	ABUNDANCIA	9	12/1	Front-runner	94	85	44.6	65.4	57.4
1	OWEN'S TOUR GUIDE	1	30/1	Stalker	92	94	96.7	82.5	73.0
6	ATOMICALLY	6	8/1	Stalker	89	88	84.7	76.5	63.5
2	BATUCADA	2	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	88	71.4	82.0	69.5
5	SCYLLA	5	6/5	Trailer	89	103	64.5	96.7	91.7
3	KATHLEEN O.	3	10/1	Trailer	101	96	60.2	91.1	86.6
4	MIRANDA'S ROCKY	4	30/1	Trailer	86	90	43.0	80.6	63.6
8	ROSIE'S HALO	8	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	90	87	56.2	82.8	71.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $115000 Class Rating: 75

OP - R9 - FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 OUTWORK MOM 3/1
# 11 LITHE SPIRIT 7/2
# 5 SHEKNOWS 12/1

I have to support OUTWORK MOM here. Foals of this sire have given wagerers decent profits in their first askings. This filly looks strong for this event since Shirer has a very strong win percentage with horses going this distance.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 51

FOR NATIVE FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE SEPTEMBER 17 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. 4# A CLASFS.$4,000 Y DEBTS ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PURA BRISA 3/1
# 2 SINDICATO 2/1
# 3 CAPTADOR 7/2

PURA BRISA is my choice. Could provide positive profits based on decent recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 56. Must be considered a key contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Had one of the most favorable speed figures of this group in her last contest. SINDICATO - With one of the most competitive jockeys in terms of returns at the window, don't count this colt out. CAPTADOR - With Figueroa aboard him, this colt ought to be able to break out sharply for this event.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:42pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#1 YOU VEE CEE (ML=9/2)
#7 TRAFFIC CONTROL (ML=7/2)
#4 CAMPISI (ML=12/1)

YOU VEE CEE - Bejarano is right back for another event today after sitting atop this horse for the 1st ride on July 14th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. I like to play horses that faced open company in their last race and drop into state bred races. This horse fits the bill. Ran in the last race against a tougher field at Ellis Park. The move down in class ranks should suit him well. Earnings per start is something that I believe can be a crucial selection factor. This thoroughbred is ranked number one in this field. TRAFFIC CONTROL - Really figure this thoroughbred is going to be very close at the finish line. CAMPISI - This gelding is in a good spot here. Is at the same distance he won at on September 30th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 STOMPING HOTROD (ML=3/1), #3 HOLDING PATTERN (ML=4/1), #6 HERITAGE PARK (ML=8/1),

STOMPING HOTROD - Don't think that this gelding has value at 3/1 in today's event. HOLDING PATTERN - Just don't figure that he is priced right at the probable odds. HERITAGE PARK - Improbable for this entrant to make an impact with no success lately in a sprint affair. Notched a substandard rating last time out in a $12,500 Claiming race on February 2nd. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that number.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 YOU VEE CEE on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 03-17-2024, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:39pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $50,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#5 OOLONG HAI (IRE) (ML=5/2)

OOLONG HAI (IRE) - This thoroughbred could be tough in today's contest, especially since Velazquez rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. Velasquez and Hennig teamed up together are a punter's friend.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 PERMED (ML=2/1), #2 OLYMPIC ARTIST (ML=3/1), #6 CALL ME PENNY (ML=9/2),

PERMED - This filly hasn't had any strong victories in sprint contests in the last couple of months. Didn't meet expectations when favored twice. Speed figures tell a narrative of declining physical condition. OLYMPIC ARTIST - This racer showed little last time finishing fourth. Can't expect a reversal of fortune in today's race. CALL ME PENNY - Would have to move up off that fifth place finish last time out of the box to make an impact here.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - OOLONG HAI (IRE) - I always consider the mount with the highest average class rating in turf races. Should be a part of it today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 OOLONG HAI (IRE) is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None