Thursday 4/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/4/24

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April 4, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s 1/ST Glance: Santa Anita – Thursday, April 4, 2024


View Video – Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays


RACE 1

7-DASHINGLY
Degree of confidence: B+

• Debuting John Sherriffs-trained filly acts like a smart prospect.
• Displayed good a.m. speed and faces a field without much of it.
• Barn has been cold, but this filly may be able to turn it around.

Others to consider: 8-Not A Sinner


RACE 2

2-FLATTERWITHJEWELS
Degree of confidence: C+

• Been flattening out in recent races but catches a modest field.
• First or second in 7 of 16 career starts over the local main track.
• Projects to inherit an ideal stalking trip and have every chance.

Others to consider: 6-De Joria.


RACE 3

6-SORRENTO SKY (IRE)
Degree of confidence: B+

• Irish import ran very well in both starts over a synthetic track.
• Tries grass in his U.S. debut and is bred on both sides to like it.
• Missed in a photo to Tarsus, a better colt than he is facing today.

Others to consider: 2-Legitify (Ire); 3-Mr. Fabricator.


RACE 4

7-HOT LAVA CAKE
Degree of confidence: C+

• Brought $200,000 at auction, trailed in debut, being tossed away today.
• Had an okay work since raced; have to believe she can fit at the bottom.
• Retains Juan Hernandez (good sign) and is comfortably drawn outside.

Others to consider: 5-Max’s Maxine; 1-Love My Candy.


RACE 5

4-FREEDOM LASS
Degree of confidence: B

• Tough beat when nailed on the wire in a similar affair last month.
• Repeat of last will be good enough; projects to enjoy a soft trip.
• In the money in nine of 13 career outings over the local turf course.

Others to consider: 1-Musical Rhapsody.


RACE 6

3-ELTONSINGSANOTHER
Degree of confidence: B-

• Worn down late when earning a career top figure facing similar foes.
• Never off the board in four starts over the Santa Anita main track.
• Most effective on the front end and looks like the controlling speed.

Others to consider: 6-Irish Wahine; 5-Uncontrollable.


RACE 7

4-STAY AND SCAM
Degree of confidence: B+

• Facing open company and stretching out, catch her and collect.
• Was an extra game winner over the downhill Irish O’Brien Stakes.
• Comfortable pace projection; pedigree says she can get the mile.

Others to consider: 7-Turnerloose.


RACE 8

3-FAYETTE FOX
Degree of confidence: B+

• Returns off a long layoff for a barn that is strong with this angle.
• Plenty of promise last year; was tons the best in Arizona Oaks.
• Picks up leading rider Juan Hernandez; should be along in time.

Others to consider: 4-Delitefull Hart.


RACE 9

1-JOHANNES
Degree of confidence: B+

• Tackling tough, seasoned, older horses in first start since last May.
• Solid drills for comeback; was a two time stakes winner last year.
• Projects to enjoy a cozy, ground-saving, second flight journey.

Others to consider: 3-Gold Phoenix.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mahoning Valley - Race #6

#4 Confessor	Think several of these are pretty evenly matched on recent paper form, and this one steps up off the claim while still holding reliable form after four claims in five races. Midrange price appeal from a touch off the splits.
#4 Fivefive Six Champ	He just handled some of these and now looks for a fourth straight win today, and he has the dangerous combination of pace and an ability to rate when needed. Tough again.
#2 Come See About It	He finished just behind 'Champ in that last one, but he's another in really solid form right now who figures in line for another good trip. Wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Confessor might get a little overlooked in what feels like a really competitive race for the level, and several of these have proven competitive against similar recently while making the same class hike he'll make today.

Mahoning Valley - Race #7

#4 Reinvestedinterest	He's not going to be any kind of price, but he'll handle these if he's able to maintain the recent baseline effort that has landed him three consecutive easy scores. He just drilled similar -- expecting he'll do it again today.
#3 Pecks Not Bad	Tactical type steps into this starter spot with some room to bounce back off the dull run last time out, and his better stuff might keep him in the mix for a piece of this.
#2 That's the Way	He has traded decisions with some of these in the races on his page, but he does seem like one of the main alternatives to the top choice if you're looking for a better number on the tote.
Race Summary	Reinvestedinterest eyes a fourth straight, and he should get another great trip right up on the splits in a race where it feels like the rest of them need him to take a step back if they're going to land top honors.

Mahoning Valley - Race #8

#6 Faithful Steps	She has some positional pace and figures to be in a good spot heading into the turn after chasing a tough winner last out. Think her very best stuff puts her in the frame.
#4 Daisy Jones	Considered her on top despite the fact that she typically folds up if she gets a challenge too early, but she might be quick enough to find the front today, which should give her a chance for much better than that last one.
#3 Rylan Jane	She makes a lot of sense with running lines from Del Mar, Santa Anita, and Turfway on her page, but she is still an unknown quantity on the dirt and will be answering that question at a likely short price.
Race Summary	Faithful Steps might get the kind of grinding, tracking trip that could play well in this spot while racing just behind the speedier players, and the price should be right with Daisy Jones and Rylan Jane likely to command some cash.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #1

#2 NORFIE (7-2)	Continued to pile up the checks despite bumpy starts in last pair, value remains.
#7 SIXTEEN CIGARETTES (9-5)	Has speed and can use it well from outside post as light weight in field.
#1 COOLER KING (3-1)	Starts fresh for new connections, starts at 6F for the first time.
Race Summary	NORFIE has an easy win and a second behind the favorite in his last two starts at 6F. He earned Beyer speed figures of 73 and 74, respectively, which makes him a good value play again in his second try at this level. Bet to win and place and play a 2-7 exacta box.

Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 HENDRICKSON (9-2)	Returns to winning surface, barn is 6-29 with positive R.O.I. the last month.
#5 ORDINARY (5-2)	Numbers are better than Ordinary at this level, makes second start off layoff.
#1 LAS OLAS (10-1)	Romped in lone route attempt on all-weather track, at the expense of 0-22 foe.
Race Summary	HENDRICKSON gets class relief and returns to a surface that produced a 2022 Maiden Special Weight victory over Dawgmentality (14/3-5-1, $119k), who went on to win an allowance race and surpass six figures in earnings. Bet to win and place.

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#6 DREAMING OF KATIE (7-5)	Pletcher firster is from G-1 winning family and well-prepped.
#2 RELIABLE LADY (5-2)	Bobbled break proved costly in otherwise solid 7F debut.
#7 DIVINE (6-1)	Heavily bet in all three starts, good for a pair of thirds.
Race Summary	DREAMING OF KATIE debuts for Pletcher as the morning-line favorite off a series of steady workouts at Palm Beach Downs training center. Her sire, Bernardini, was a multiple Grade 1 winner of more than $3 million and her dam, Dream Rush (8-16, $799k), was a debut winner at Belmont and two-time Grade 1 winner at 3. Bet to win and place on today’s Best Bet.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

PURCHASE

Charles Town - Race 5	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (Races 5-6) Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) / Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 60 • Purse: $16,600 • Post: 8:53P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SYBARITE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SYBARITE: Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sp rint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	SYBARITE	1/1	6/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	SYBARITE	7	1/1	Front-runner	75	71	75.4	52.0	49.5
2	GOLDEN RUN	2	15/1	Front-runner	48	37	54.8	25.9	16.9
4	NOBLE OBSESSION	4	9/2	Alternator/Front-runner	48	40	50.8	28.8	20.8
6	I LOVE MARIA	6	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	54	53.6	34.4	29.4
1	P B FOXY	1	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	61	39	35.8	35.8	28.8
5	BOBBI TWO STEPS	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.1	23.2	12.2
8	BETCHA BOOTS BABE	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: CRYSTAL (10/1) [Jockey: Araujo Denis Vicente - Trainer: Albright Amy].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Sunland ParkPURCHASE

Sunland Park - Race 8	1st Half Late $1 Daily Double/$1 Exacta /$1 Trifecta/.10 Superfecta
Claiming $7,500 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $17,500 • Post: 3:32P
FOR REGISTERED NEW MEXICO BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * AWESOME WALKER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PEGGY B FAST: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SHAME ON CHARLOTTE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. INDIAN EXCELLENCE: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. HEAR ME ROAR: Today is a s print and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
5	AWESOME WALKER	3/1	5/1
2	PEGGY B FAST	4/1	6/1
9	SHAME ON CHARLOTTE	10/1	6/1
3	INDIAN EXCELLENCE	10/1	9/1
8	HEAR ME ROAR	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	RAPPERS THIEF	1	10/1	Front-runner	76	66	77.4	52.6	38.6
7	REAL ME	7	12/1	Front-runner	74	74	67.6	55.8	44.3
8	HEAR ME ROAR	8	7/2	Front-runner	75	66	63.2	63.0	52.0
2	PEGGY B FAST	2	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	78	76	62.4	63.8	55.8
5	AWESOME WALKER	5	3/1	Stalker	74	67	60.6	69.2	63.7
9	SHAME ON CHARLOTTE	9	10/1	Stalker	67	68	53.0	66.6	61.6
3	INDIAN EXCELLENCE	3	10/1	Stalker	78	66	50.4	61.6	54.1
4	QUITE LOVELY	4	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	70	69.0	43.4	34.9
6	RUN LIKE KATE	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	66	56.6	47.8	30.8

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Oaklawn Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:50pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $30,000 Class Rating: 60

Rating:

#1 KOKOMO STARLET (ML=9/2)
#7 SHEZA SHENANIGAN (ML=5/1)


KOKOMO STARLET - Ranks number one in earnings per start (EPS). A solid try right here can add to the lifetime bankroll. Lower impost of -13. In my opinion, a movement of 5 is important, so this mare falls into this category. SHEZA SHENANIGAN - This horse's last race was at Oaklawn Park in a race with a class rating of 69. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position right here. Don't often see a favorable ROI like +85. This jockey/conditioner tandem has done well together over the last twelve months.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PREDICTING (ML=5/2), #9 AMOUREUX (ML=3/1), #6 CHUCK WILLS WIDOW (ML=6/1),

PREDICTING - Doesn't look to have enough good qualities to warrant the reward. AMOUREUX - 3/1 is too low of a price to take on most any racer that has run poorly in back to back races. Substandard speed figure last time around the track at Oaklawn Park at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much today. CHUCK WILLS WIDOW - Likely won't make much of an impression this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #1 KOKOMO STARLET to win if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Stakes - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $100000 Class Rating: 104

WILSHIRE S. SA - R7 - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH IF MADE ON OR BEFORE THURSDAY, MARCH 21, 2024, CLOSED WITH 15 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY, CLOSED WITH 2 & STAY AND SCAM). $750 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START WITH $100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $60,000 TO THE

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 NADETTE (FR) 6/1
# 7 TURNERLOOSE 10/1
# 9 ADAAY IN ASIA (GB) 12/1

My selection for this race is NADETTE (FR). Could best this field based on the speed rating - 100 - of her last outing. Have to consider solely on class, with some of the strongest class numbers of this group. If you examine closely, this horse has some longshot possibilities. TURNERLOOSE - This mare has to be given a shot just off the earnings per start in turf route contests alone. Could provide positive returns based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 94. ADAAY IN ASIA (GB) - Damato has this mare racing well and is a very strong choice based on the very good speed figures garnered in route races as of late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Santa Anita - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $65,000 Class Rating: 98

Rating:

#10 HYMNAL (ML=6/1)
#4 PARADISE LAKE (ML=3/1)
#6 NOTIME FOR SQUALLS (ML=12/1)


HYMNAL - This rider and trainer have a wonderful winning pct when they unite. A first time starter with this handler. Baffert wins a 29 percent of the time in these here situations. A solid handicapping angle is the addition of Lasix for the 1st time. Baffert gives it to this one for this clash. It's a big plus that this first-time-starter has been working over the same track that she makes her debut at today. PARADISE LAKE - The jockey/trainer duet of Fresu and Eurton has a strong ROI together. Horses out of the barn of Eurton have been solid on the grass. Should do well in this race. NOTIME FOR SQUALLS - Don't often see a favorable ROI like +133. This jockey/handler tandem has done well together over the last 12 months. Rider hops up on after getting to know the fine animal by riding in the last race. That's always a good sign. Came home fast in the last race at Santa Anita. That type of move bodes well for her chances today. Filly will add blinkers to the equipment package today. That often leads to an improved performance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 ASHLEY (ML=4/1), #8 NOT A SINNER (GB) (ML=4/1), #7 DASHINGLY (ML=6/1),

ASHLEY - In any race of 6 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in short distance events recently. When scrutinizing today's class rating, she will have to record a much better speed rating than last out to compete in this turf sprint. NOT A SINNER (GB) - Not likely that the speed figure she notched on February 25th will be good enough in this contest. DASHINGLY - Doesn't seem to be worth 6/1 this time around. Pass on her this time.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - NOTIME FOR SQUALLS - Some points of information to consider. This filly is going on Lasix for the second time. My research shows that any time Glatt does this, the horse is fit and ready to go.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #10 HYMNAL on the nose if you can get odds of 3/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,6,10] with [4,6,10] with [4,5,6,9,10] with [4,5,6,9,10] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $16000 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500. ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 LUCKY VEGAS 3/1
# 1 DORITA'S HAPPY 10/1
# 7 CHRISTINA'S CANDY 5/1

My selection in this race is LUCKY VEGAS. Earned a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race. DORITA'S HAPPY - Must be given consideration given the class of races run recently. Has to be carefully examined versus this group displaying very good figs as of late and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 71 under similar conditions. CHRISTINA'S CANDY - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this race. Looks to have a quite good class edge based on the recent company kept.