Wednesday 4/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Keeneland - Race #7

#6 More Vino	Not totally sold on the Tampa debut score against that small group, but he might offer a price that's just playable enough while rising today with some second-out upside. In the mix for a capable team.
#5 Rocketeer	He's another with some obvious upside while making the second career start, and she should be in a great spot right up near the splits while getting around two turns. He thrived here last year.
#3 Heartened	He's one of the clear players while dropping out of the Tampa Bay Derby where he was only beaten a couple lengths, but I could see him coming alive too late to be a serious threat today.
Race Summary	More Vino has some appeal at what might be a midrange price, and he should be in a really good spot up on the pace early on with this group. Some reasonable upside would keep him in the frame.

Keeneland - Race #8

#6 Lincoln Highway	There are some sneaky tough names in the company lines, and this one comes out of stakes company off the bench with a win over the local course to his credit last year.
#2 Greek Order	Nothing wrong with the overall form that has been super consistent, and he's in the mix today if he's able to hold something similar while racing off the layoff.
#7 Pipeline	He has run into some really tough customers over the last couple years, but he has also faded late in his two most recent allowance tries, so he's no sure thing even while facing this type. Turf pace.
Race Summary	Lincoln Highway scored here last season and is probably capable of something better than he showed last out -- that last race at Churchill had some pretty solid names in it.

Keeneland - Race #6

#10 Battle of Normandy	There are some decent company lines on his page, and he has knocked on the door with this kind in the couple tries he had against similar. Dangerous on the graded drop.
#4 Malibu Springs	He had been nibbling before breaking through last out, and his reliable form might keep him in line for another competitive effort while stepping up to try winners for the first time.
#2 Tiverton	He might have something better to offer after a couple flat tries last season, but he comes back fresh again with some ability to avoid finishing from out of the clouds. Some appeal for a piece.
Race Summary	Battle of Normandy has settled for his share of slices, but he stacks up really well with this group and can get over the top today.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#5 COMMANDER BIZ (6-1)	Improved numbers for this barn, projects right trip, good value play.
#2 GUN RIGHT (5-2)	Slowed by pace in latest, gets in light-weighted, must use in all gimmicks.
#4 MAGIC HOOH (3-1)	Ran 1-2-3 prior to latest, sheds blinkers for new barn.
Race Summary	COMMANDER BIZ rallied into a fast pace to finish third as the favorite at 6-1/2F. He’s 1-for-23 and unproven going a route of ground on the main track, but he gets plenty of pace to run at and is worth a win and place bet at a square price.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#5 BEAUTIFUL KARLA (5-2)	On the improve at age 4, can continue upward trend for top barn.
#6 TAYYARA (10-1)	Won on class hike off claim, steps up again with 6/2-3-0 record at distance.
#4 RITABOOK (3-1)	Played bridesmaid eight times in 20 starts, can top $100,000 in earnings with win.
Race Summary	BEAUTIFUL KARLA earned the top speed figure of her career when he drew away to a popular 7F victory. He posted comparable fractions and ran 4/5 slower than a $25,000/nw3 claimer on the same card. He steps up off the D’Angelo claim and is today’s Best Bet.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#7 SASSY BUT PRECIOUS (8-1)	Finished the deal in race dominated by closers, idle two months since.
#4 ELISSA JOE (2-1)	Has speed, takes magnified class drop for third start this year, one to beat.
#2 BABY’S DIALIED IN (3	Second for new barn on class hike, finished behind Tayyara (see 2nd race).
Race Summary	SASSY BUT PRECIOUS sustained a 4-wide rally and held off a pair of deep closers to win in her second start for Bennett. She will have to improve but could do so in a field that is a combined 9-for-96. Play a 4-7/2, 4, 7/ALL trifecta.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Tampa Bay Downs

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race 4	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta ($.50 minimum) / Superfecta ($.10 minimum) Pick 3 ($.50 minimum) (Races 4-5-6) / Ultimate 6 ($.20 minimum) (Races 4-9) Super High 5
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 70 • Purse: $19,000 • Post: 1:48P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN WEIGHT ALLOWANCES) (REGISTERED FLORIDA BREDS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. SASSY BUT PRECIOUS is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ELISSA JOE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BABY'S DIALED IN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GLORIOUS WAVE : Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	ELISSA JOE	2/1	4/1
2	BABY'S DIALED IN	3/1	9/2
3	GLORIOUS WAVE	10/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	TESHIMA	5	6/1	Front-runner	69	54	77.0	55.0	46.0
3	GLORIOUS WAVE	3	10/1	Front-runner	65	70	54.3	54.1	43.1
9	AMERICAN PEACHES	9	8/1	Front-runner	55	50	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	ELISSA JOE	4	2/1	Stalker	75	68	71.2	65.8	57.3
6	MISS FABIANA	6	8/1	Stalker	61	51	57.4	54.0	43.0
2	BABY'S DIALED IN	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	64	58.2	60.2	54.7
7	SASSY BUT PRECIOUS	7	8/1	Trailer	56	53	41.2	48.2	41.2
1	DAHGO	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	62	64.4	49.2	37.7
8	PAMZ PALACE	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	59	56	35.0	44.2	29.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for KeenelandPURCHASE

Keeneland - Race 1	Double-Exacta ($1 min)-Trifecta-Pick 3-Pick 5 ($.50 min)-Superfecta ($.10 min)
Maiden Claiming $50,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 74 • Purse: $54,000 • Post: 1:00P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE): Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ha s the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE)	2/1	5/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	WEST COAST HARBOR	1	10/1	Front-runner	0	0	85.0	50.0	36.0
9	SPIRITUAL LADY	9	6/1	Front-runner	76	69	80.2	60.8	49.8
3	BLUE EYED SOUL (IRE)	3	2/1	Front-runner	85	78	75.9	75.0	72.0
2	UP THE CREEK	2	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	71	71	61.1	66.2	56.7
5	GOLDYS LOCK	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	56.2	63.4	55.4
8	GIFT GORGEOUS	8	15/1	Trailer	0	0	73.0	70.2	64.7
4	CHARM OF THE SONG	4	4/1	Trailer	81	70	47.6	67.3	58.3
7	BROWNIE BAY	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	77.4	41.8	30.3
6	LADY JUNE	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 51

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 NATALIE'S GOLD 5/2
# 7 AUNT LOTTIE 3/1
# 6 SHOOTIN RUN 3/1

NATALIE'S GOLD is my choice. Should be considered a contender on earnings per start at the distance/surface alone. Roman has a win percentage of 24 over the last month. I like Roman on this mare to give her a competitive chance to hit the wire first.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #2 - Post: 1:07pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $21,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#2 BOINTHEBACK (ML=4/1)
#1 INSIDE SECRET (ML=6/1)


BOINTHEBACK - This jockey/conditioner duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +64. INSIDE SECRET - Bouchard brings him right back. I advise you stick with this strong colt. When this rider and trainer work together you have to take a look. Hernandez and Bouchard have been wonderful together. Wired the field on April 1st at Parx Racing. Quite possible he can do it again right here. This colt is at the top in earnings per race. Give the once over to this horse in the saddling ring.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MCMAGIC (ML=8/5), #4 GRUMPY BROOKSIE (ML=9/2), #5 SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE (ML=5/1),

MCMAGIC - No value on this participant at the likely odds of 8/5. GRUMPY BROOKSIE - Hard to play this gelding today since the race isn't limited to sophomores. SHOULDHAVEBEENGONE - You always think this horse has a shot to win, but he comes up short often.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 BOINTHEBACK to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Turf Paradise

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19500 Class Rating: 89

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE OCTOBER 10, 2023 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,500 ARIZONA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 8 BUFFETT 8/1
# 5 DARNQUICK 5/2
# 2 D K'S CROWN 5/1

BUFFETT is the strongest bet in this affair especially at a such a nice price. With a very good 89 Equibase Speed Figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. Cruz has a win percent of 18 over the last 30 days. DARNQUICK - Silva has this gelding racing well and is a strong pick based on the decent speed figures put up in sprint races lately. Will most likely go to the lead and could never look back. D K'S CROWN - Wagerers should probably take a good look at this one as this gelding has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group of animals. Has to be given a shot here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #2 - Post: 5:57pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#6 TOTALLY ADDICTED (ML=4/1)
#5 MAIN DUDE (ML=10/1)


TOTALLY ADDICTED - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on March 8th. Should 'know' the horse even better this race. David drops him down to this class level. You don't need too much more data to think this horse should have a chance to win at this level. The ROI when Suarez and David partner up is out of sight. Finished fourth at Fair Grounds last out. Was close at the end and at odds of 4/1 today, he looks like a possible contender. MAIN DUDE - Ran a less than stellar race at Fair Grounds last time out. Racing with the benefit of a fast track puts this gelding at the top of my contenders list. You have to really like that last race speed rating, 69, which is the best last race speed rating of this field. The improved speed figs over the last three races is strong. Wilson drops him in this race fit and ready to go.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CAJUN CONNECTION (ML=2/1), #8 JIMMIE'S HALO (ML=5/2), #7 SMART ANALYSIS (ML=6/1),

CAJUN CONNECTION - In this circumstance, this mount's inability to close any ground in the last race is definitely troubling. SMART ANALYSIS - Last ran on February 16th at Delta Downs, finishing seventh. Unlikely to advance off of that outing today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #6 TOTALLY ADDICTED to win. Have to have odds of at least 7/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip