3-22-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Arizona St vs Syracuse 12:10 PM EST 20* Syracuse -2.5
CBB Cleveland St vs Arizona 2:40 PM EST 20* Cleveland St +3
CBB Dayton vs Kansas 2:30 PM EST 20* Kansas -7.5
CBB USC vs Michigan St 4:50 PM EST 10* Michigan St -4
CBB Marquette vs Missouri 4:40 PM EST 10* Marquette +4
CBB Siena vs Louisville 5:20 PM EST 10* Louisville -11.5
NBA Golden St @ New Orleans 7:05 PM EST 10* OVER 215

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

The prezz NA
Xavier r730
-3.5 (-110) / 4 units

The Prezz NA
Oklahoma State r719
Pittsburgh r720
u150.5 (-110) / 4 units


The Prezz NA
Missouri r728
-3.5 (-110) / 5 units


The Prezz NA
Michigan State r726
-3.5 (-110) / 4 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Malinsky

4* #723 DAYTON over KANSAS

In making Kansas this big of a favorite the betting markets are
paying a little too much attention to the uniforms, and it will be
apparent only a few minutes into this one ? we get a lot of points
handed to us with an underdog with more experience, and no
disadvantages in terms of size, depth or athleticism. And what will
be considered a ?shocking? upset if it occurs would be anything but
that.

Bill Self has done a good job of getting a young Jayhawk team to
develop, with two sophomores and two freshmen in the starting lineup,
but he also had some favorable circumstances. There was only one
non-conference road game against a tourney team this season, an ugly
17-point blowout at Arizona, and in the only Big 12 road games
against tourney teams they lost at Missouri, and won at Oklahoma when
Blake Griffin did not play. Down the stretch there were major
stumbles, with the final regular-season road trip an ugly 19-point
shelling at Texas Tech, and they got KO?d by Baylor in the first
round of the conference tourney. As for Friday?s win over North
Dakota State, there was little evidence that the young players were
ready for the spotlight ? Sheron Collins and Cole Aldrich combined
for 55 points, 15 rebounds and eight assists, and the supporting cast
was ordinary, at best. Now the two stars face some difficult matchups
here, and that makes this an extremely vulnerable favorite.

Instead of towering over a smaller team (six of the nine Aldrich
field goals on Friday came on dunks), Aldrich now runs into a Dayton
front-court that goes 6-10/245, 6-6/247 and 6-8/226, the latter being
Chris Wright, one of the best players in the nation that few have
heard about. Just ask Bob Huggins, after he dominated a tough West
Virginia defense for 27 point and 10 rebounds. And Collins also runs
into a difficult matchup against London Warren, who had nine assists
vs. only one turnover in that win, and has been rock solid with the
basketball all season (averaging one turnover every 11.5 floor
minutes), while also exerting outstanding pressure on defense.

A veteran Dayton team starts four upperclassman, and has been
stifling in the key areas all season, allowing 39.6 percent shooting
and winning the boards by 5.0 per game. They are in the hunt all the
way here against a much younger side that may still be a year away
from being ready for prime time.



4* #729 WISCONSIN over XAVIER

If you are going to get a margin against Bo Ryan in an NCAA
tournament game you had better bring the far superior talent or
tactics. Xavier does not have that, and we see this as a major
overlay in a game in which the favorite has some serious matchup
problems to overcome in order to merely win the game, much less get
any kind of margin.

Wisconsin may lack sex appeal, but that has also been the case in the
past, as Ryan grinds away to outright tourney wins (11-7) with a
disciplined style on both ends of the court that are difficult to
prepare for. That Badger defense was once again fundamentally
flawless in that opening win over Florida State, and it is that
veteran unit, keyed by some members with a lot of NCAA tourney games
under their belts, that keys this one. To beat Wisconsin requires a
lot of precision, because openings are few and far between. And it
requires patience, because you are not going to be able to get out
and run. And therein lies the Xavier hole.

The Musketeers are a rarity for a favorite at this stage of the
tournament ? they had an ugly ratio of 44 more turnovers than
assists, and they committed 66 more turnovers than their defense
forced. They overcame this by being tenacious on the boards and
converting at a high ratio in transition, but now the rebounding
advantage is minimal, if there is any at all (the Big 10 wars
certainly get Wisconsin prepared for this kind of battle inside), and
there is almost no transition to be found. So where does the offense
get generated? Through 33 games Sean Miller still does not have a
player with more than 91 assists, and four different Musketeers have
at least 66 turnovers. And even if they do get a lead they are
anything but a lock to extend it with 67.4 percent free throw
shooting. Wisconsin brings the precision that Xavier lacks. The
Badgers maximize their possessions by not giving the ball away (+65
in assist to turnover ratio, and 48 fewer turnovers than their
opponents), and by running their sets they force the Muskeeters to be
patient, which is not a strong suit.

Xavier was only 5-5 over the last 10 games prior to beating
out-manned Portland State on Friday night, a sign that the lack of
point guard play kept the Musketeers from developing this season.
They bring neither the momentum nor the matchup advantages to be in
this pointspread range.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

VR

NASCAR FOOD CITY 500 for SUNDAY :

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Sun, 03/22/09 - 12:10 PMvegas-runner | CBB Sides Double-Dime Bet
715 Ariz. St 3.0 (-110) Bodog vs 716 Syracuse
Analysis: ** NCAABB 2* LATE STEAM **

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Trace Fields

5* Arizona
4* Wisconsin
4* Pittsburgh
4* Marquette/Missouri Under

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Cavs/Nets under 190
3* 76ers/Kings over 206

NCAA:

3* Pitt -8
4* Syracuse -2.5
6* Missouri -4
8* Missouri/Marquette over 147

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Stu Finer

Southern Cal (+4) vs Michigan State (129') @ Minnesota - 5 p.m. EST

Michigan State feasted on slowing down the plodding offenses that the Spartans faced in the Big Ten this year. That won't be the case later this afternoon at the Metrodome as MSU will have its hands full with this athletic, aggressive Southern Cal team that attacks the rim and is playing with a load of confidence of late. The Troajns have won and covered six straight, the last four over Big Dance teams after Friday's solid win over Boston College. Tom Izzo's MSU teams have traditionally played stout defense, but Tim Floyd has really stressed defense and rebounding at Southern Cal and the Trojans held 14 opponents under 60 points this year. MSU has failed to cover in two straight and this team took a hit when Raymar Morgan went down midway through the season with walking pneumonia. He's back, but clearly not himself and that's been a blow to sometimes inconsistent Spartan offense. Michigan State, 1-3 ATS slide on one or less days rest, will encounter a USC team that features five athletic starters who all stand at least 6-foot-5. They're on ATS runs of 26-12 both as a dog and playing on one or less days rest and look for Taj Simmons, Marcus Simmons, super frosh DeMar DeRozan and the rest of the streaking Trojans to stay aggressive offensively in winning this game outright.



SOUTHERN CAL (+4) 5000 Dime High Roller


Arizona State (+2') vs Syracuse (139') @ Miami - 12:10 p.m. EST


Pac-10 Player of the Year James Harden did not have a good game in his team's hard-fought win over Temple on Friday, but he'll bounce back and be special this afternoon in South Florida as the Sun Devils score this win and cover. Syracuse coach Jim Boeheim is shooting for win No. 799, but it will be Herb Sendek coaching ASU into the Sweet 16 as the Sun Devils thrive in this role as a dog (3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS this year). The Sun Devils play stingy defense and this is a Syracuse team that hasn't been consistent away from the Carrier Dome. Jonny Flyn had seven turnovers in Friday's win over Stephen F. Austin and the Orangmenare only 5-6 ATS on one or less days rest this season. ASU has won and covered four of its last five and is 12-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in non-conference games. Again, big rebound effort from Harden as ASU punced its ticket to the Sweet 16.


ARIZONA STATE (+2') 1000 Dime High Roller



Oklahoma State (+8') vs Pittsburgh (150) @ Dayton - 2:50 p.m. EST


This is just way too many points to cover for a Pittsburgh team (3-4 ATS last seven) that didn't look good in Friday's win over East Tennessee State and clearly doesn't have healthy point guard in Lavance Fields. He continues to be bothered by a sore groin and that's the key factor in this one as Fields goes, so do the Panthers (2-4 ATS slide in the Big Dance). He didn't bring the ball up the court against East Tennessee State's press Friday and finished the game with as many feild goals as turnovers (3) and missed all five of his 3-point attempts. He'll again struggle against this Travis Ford-coach Oklahoma State team that plays up-tempo, utilizes a lot of ball movement and defensive pressure and does a good job of crashing the boards. These two teams have split meetings the last two seasons, but it was Pitt scoring an 85-68 home win last year. Payback time for this Cowboy team that is on runs of 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS overall and has covered 13 of its last 20 on neutral courts. Big effort fro Marshall Moses and especially senior point guard Byron Eaton as Oklahoma State takes this one down to the final possession and covers with ease.


OKLAHOMA STATE (+8') 1000 Dime High Roller




Siena (141) vs Louisville (-11') @ Dayton - 5:20 p.m. EST


That was a nice upset win over Ohio State on Friday for the Saints, but their Big Dance run comes to a close Sunday as the top-seeded Cards blast them big time. The Saints needed double-OT to turn back the Buckeyes, but if this team has a weakness, it's depth, and this very deep and relentless Louisville team will flat out wear down Siena. The Cards are a great pressing team and rank ninth in the country in steals and fifth in blocks. Senior guard Andre McGee locks down on opposing ball-handlers and then all those long-armed teammates of his step into passing lanes and swat away shots. The've won 11 straight and have covered in eight of those victories despite just missing the ATS win in Friday's 20-point whipping of Morehead State. They've covered 10 of their last 16 versus teams with winning records, are 2-0 SU/ATS as a neutral court chalk of 9 1/2 to 12 points and they'll pull away from this tiring Siena team in the second half in winning this game by 18 to 20 points.



LOUISVILLE (-11') 1000 Dime High Roller

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Paul Leiner:

500* CBB Missouri -3.5

50* CBB Syracuse -2.5

50* CBB Xavier -4

50* CBB Arizona -3

50* CBB Over 129.5 Mich St/USC

25* NBA Over 177 Hou/SA

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Great Lakes Sports
4* Louisville From The Northcoast Line

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

ATS Sports Club (0-4 yest)

NCAA:

MSU -4
Missouri-4
Louisville/Siena over 142
Pitt/OSU under 150.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Sixth Sense
2009 NCAA Tournament Best Bets - Round 2


For Sunday:

2% ARIZONA STATE/SYRACUSE OVER 139.5
2% CLEVELAND STATE/ARIZONA UNDER 134.5
2% SIENA/LOUISVILLE UNDER 143 Must get at least 140
2% KANSAS -7.5
2% MARQUETTE/MISSOURI OVER 148 No higher than 150

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Sebastian

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5 OK Thunder (comp)
100 Pitt panthers (Vegas Steam 0-1)
20 Houston
30 LA Clippers
50 Xavier Under
100 Syracuse
100 USC
100 Arizona

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Asa 5*....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Usc

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

Jake Timlin
Jake Timlin Sunday's Action
900? Missouri Tigers

I learned a pair of valuable things on Friday and that was Missouri is very good and Marquette is not the same team without Dominic James. You see after watching Missouri win by 19 points on Friday improving to 4-0 SU/ATS in postseason play I am shocked that the Tigers a such a little favorite today. I mean given that they have won 16 of their last 19 games while covering 14 of those games it is very clear that Missouri is one the elite teams in the nation. The same can’t be said for Marquette right now as despite their opening round win they are struggling with Dominic James out with an injury as the Golden Eagles have lost 5 of their last 7 games. Plus, given the league tournament success going 7-2 straight up after last night’s action the Big 12 is show they are a deep and good league with Missouri leading the way with their league title. So backed by the new version of 40 minutes of hell I look for the Missouri with their amazing depth to wear down Marquette as the Tiger run away late for a double digit win.

All Missouri minus the points!

100? Cleveland State Vikings

In bonus action sure Arizona is expected to win today, but I just don’t see it happening as Cleveland State keeping the glass slipper on as they advance with a win. Not when the Wildcats will have their hand full playing a senior laden Cleveland State team show just how good they are with a 15 point win against Wake Forest on Friday thanks to the style up tempo pressure style of play. Well it’s the Vikings style of play that I love today as Arizona a depth shy team that is a undisciplined at time. Plus, given that Cleveland State has wins already over Syracuse, Wake Forest and Butler on the year it’s easy to expect them to beat an Arizona team that still did not deserve a tournament bid despite their first round win. Flat out, the Vikings are the better team here today and it is going to show with a Cleveland State win.

All Cleveland State plus the points!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-22-09

California Sports
5 Missouri
4 Louisville
4 Golden State