Sunday 4/28/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:20 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 4/28/24

April 28, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Kno
Sunday, April 28, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Sunday Prime Plays Video

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 6-Abhita; 1-Fast Giselle.
Backups/savers: 8-Spring Magic.

Forecast: Abhita is a two-time winner over the local lawn with a late-running style that projects well according to the expected race shape. Back on grass where she belongs, the daughter of Clubhouse Ride looks properly spotted to return to winning form in this starter allowance turf miler. H. Berrios stays aboard and knows here well. Fast Giselle stretches out for the first time, lands the rail, and seems certain to try gate-to-wire tactics. If she’s ever going to get the trip, it should be in her first try under these conditions.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Frazzled
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Frazzled has been away since December of 2022 but returns protected in a sign of confidence for trainer R. Baltas, who trained her prior to his suspension. A strong series of workouts at San Luis Rey Downs should have her plenty fit. Best when held up early and allowed to kick home late, the daughter of Outwork has the proper style for this extended sprint distance and picks up top rider J. Hernandez, who has won on her in the past. She’s the 7/5 morning line favorite for a reason and in a five runner field can be used as a rolling exotic single.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Final Storm; 3-Known Idea
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Final Stormis aggressively raised to the first level allowance ranks after a clever score in a maiden $50,000 claimer last month. Claimed out of the race by P. D’Amato and retaining “win rider” K. Frey, the son of Blame has plenty of room to improve for his new connections and in his first try on grass is guaranteed an ideal second flight, ground-saving trip from his rail draw. At 4-1 on the morning line, he’s worth a gamble. Known Idea is likely the quickest of the quick, especially with the addition of blinkers, and is strictly the one to beat. Overmatched when a fading fifth in the Echo Eddie Stakes on dirt last time out, the J. Sadler-trained son of Goldencents has numbers that can win, is the logical favorite, and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-Dramatizer; 6-Vulin
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: There’s nothing to trust in this bottom rung $10,000 claiming dirt miler for fillies and mares, so the best advice is the leave this race alone. Dramatizer once was much better than these, but she’s never won on dirt and this nosedive in class raises red flags. She can win but offers no value at 2-1 on the morning line (too many question marks). Vulin is slow on numbers, but they all are at this levels. She drops to her lowest level ever and may have found her friends.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 3-Dandy Man Shines (Ire); 2-Aligato.
Backups/savers: 4-Crosby Beach.

Forecast: Dandy Man Shines (Ire) broke his maiden five races back last summer at Del Mar and has been entered in nothing but stakes races ever since, including the Kilroe Mile-G1 in his most recent outing, a not-too-bad fifth considering the strength of the field. This drop to the second level allowance ranks is a long time coming, and based strictly on numbers he can beat a field like this, so let’s put the Irish-bred gelding on top and hope he can regain his confidence. Aligato moves up a notch following a strong win over this course and distance three weeks ago. All three of his victories have been achieved over the local lawn, and with some help up front he should be heard from in the closing stages.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Crypto Craze
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Crypto Craze exits a monster starter allowance sprint in which he pressed a blazing pace before understandably feeling the effects when the pressure was turned on (the winner, Man O Rose, came back to romp in his next start). Back in a claimer but above his claim level, the M. Glatt-trained gelding is certain to face an easy pace flow today and if he leaves cleanly from the rail could establish the running and never look back.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:08 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Curlin’s Kaos
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Curlin’s Kaos looked hopelessly overmatched (59-1) in the Santa Anita Derby but really wasn’t embarrassed after being within range to the head of the lane before understandably weakening to wind up fourth, beaten eighth lengths, behind Kentucky Derby-bound Stronghold. He chased that same colt home in the Sunland Derby two runs back (fourth, beaten nine lengths), but in both races earning numbers that makes him a major player against this group. He’s back on grass today and graduated over this course and distance in January, so the surface switch is another plus. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and offers a gamble at that price.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:38 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: 3-Uncontrollable; 5-Irish Wahine
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Uncontrollable closed with interest before running out of a room in a similar state-bred first level allowance sprint earlier this month. With a bit more ground to work with today, the daughter of Upstart may be able to tag the leaders close home, but to be truthful she’s a bit too one paced to trust, as her failure as the favorite in two of her last five starts would indicate. On a positive note, J. Hernandez stays aboard, so we’ll put her on top, though at 8/5 on the morning line there won’t be much value available. Irish Wahine was claimed for $20,000 last time out by an outfit that excels with this angle, so improvement can be expected. She was third in the same race our top pick exits and with just a small forward move could pose the most danger.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:08 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 8-Disposition; 11-Upcharge
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Disposition, with a useful debut behind her in a fast main track sprint, switches to grass and is likely to step forward in what appears to be a moderate maiden affair for fillies and mares. The daughter of Palace Malice shows a strong, healthy work tab since her promising third place performance that produced a promising number, so unless there’s a good thing among the first timers she should be set to graduate. Upcharge has trained like the best of the newcomers and probably is worth including somewhere on your ticket. She’s not quick type but is likely to make some noise from the quarter pole home and it would be a bit disappointing if she doesn’t at least hit the board.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:20 AM

Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Derby 150 Post Draw Reaction

April 28, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Fierceness, record-setting winner of the Florida Derby by 13-1/2 lengths, is the 5-2 morning line favorite for the historic 150th running of the Kentucky Derby. And if he’s to win, he could be the first ever to do so from post position 17, the only starting spot never to wear the roses. Last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old topped a field of 20 that was entered Saturday at Churchill Downs, including a pair of alternate, also-eligible contenders in the event of any race-week defections.

The post-time favorite has won the Kentucky Derby 10 times since 2000, the last being Justify in 2018. Twelve straight favorites have finished in the top-4 of the Run for the Roses. Sierra Leone (post 2), winner of this year’s Blue Grass at Keeneland and Risen Star at Fair Grounds, is the 3-1 second choice in the morning line as set by track oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. He has authored the Derby morning line every year since 1974. Post 2 hasn’t won a Derby since Triple Crown winner Affirmed in 1978.

Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can take part in a $50,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on exacta bets Oaks and Derby Days, as well as a $10 money-back special on win bets that finish second or third in select stakes races Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs. Also, bet $100 on Churchill Downs races this Tuesday, Wednesday or Thursday and earn a $10 wagering credit for each day you hit the $100 mark.

Despite the statistical anomaly of no winner from post 17 in Derby history, Fierceness arguably is drawn beautifully as he is poised outside of the other early speed horses in the field. He has a string of horses immediately to his inside that he has more natural early pace than and can begin to clear and cross over the field until landing position into the clubhouse turn about 5/16ths of a mile after the start. The Brad Cox-trained pair of Just A Touch and Encino in posts 8 and 9 would appear to be winners at the draw with their tactical speed. Their only danger is being directly inside the pair of Japanese raiders, T O Password (10) and Forever Young (11), given the history of international runners’ struggles to leave cleanly at the start of American races.

The known commodities to the early pace are the favorite Fierceness as well as consistent front-runner Track Phantom (post 12). Fierceness jockey John Velazquez has 4 Derby wins, 3 of them essentially right to the front throughout.

The wildcards to how fast or slow the early tempo may be figure to be lightly raced Japanese raider TO Password, who showed early speed in his two victories at home vs. lesser competition, and front-running Remsen and Fountain of Youth winner Dornoch, whose connections have tried to teach him to rate off the engine in the Blue Grass and subsequent workouts. But Dornoch, full brother to last year’s Derby winner Mage, drew the 1-post and almost certainly now must exert himself early under Luis Saez and quicken the overall tempo to avoid the cavalry charge that will converge toward the rail through the stretch the first time.

Sierra Leone in post 2 either will be in receipt of heavy doses of kickback near the rear of the field or change his tactical style to be a bit more forwardly placed, neither of which is a positive development.

Alternates on the also-eligible list are Epic Ride and Mugatu, who only compete in the event one or more runners scratch from the field by 9 a.m. Friday. That’s the manner in which 2022 Kentucky Derby upset winner Rich Strike eventually found himself in the field.

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$5 million Grade 1 Kentucky Derby // Saturday // Churchill Downs // Post Time 6:57 pm ET US // Race 12

1. Dornoch (Danny Gargan / Luis Saez) 20-1
2. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione) 3-1
3. Mystik Dan (Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr.) 20-1
4. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox / Flavien Prat) 8-1
5. Catalytic (Saffie Joseph Jr. / Jose Ortiz) 30-1
6. Just Steel (D. Wayne Lukas / Keith Asmussen) 20-1
7. Honor Marie (Whit Beckman / Ben Curtis) 20-1
8. Just A Touch (Brad Cox / Florent Geroux) 10-1
9. Encino (Brad Cox / Axel Concepcion) 20-1
10. T O Password (Daisuke Takayanagi / Kazushi Kimura) 30-1
11. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi / Ryusei Sakai) 10-1
12. Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) 20-1
13. West Saratoga (Larry Demeritte / Jesus Castanon ) 50-1
14. Endlessly (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) 30-1
15. Domestic Product (Chad Brown / Irad Ortiz Jr.) 30-1
16. Grand Mo the First (Victor Barbosa Jr. / Emisael Jaramillo) 50-1
17. Fierceness (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 5-2
18. Stronghold (Phil D’Amato / Antonio Fresu) 20-1
19. Resilience (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) 20-1
20. Society Man (Danny Gargan / Frankie Dettori) 50-1
21. (AE) Epic Ride (John Ennis / Adam Beschizza) 50-1
22. (AE) Mugatu (Jeff Engler / Joe Talamo) 50-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:20 AM

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

April 28, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Cal Expo has an 11-race card with the 0.20 Pick 4 starting in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (8:34 PM PST)

1-Cut A Rug (2-1)-Beaten odd-on chalk moves up but the TM races can be a hodge podge. Did come close to beating this kind from post 9. Then dropped, was bet hard and came up flat. Luke Plano gets the call, and he can get the best out of the
7-year-old.
4-Frewil Dakota Sven (12-1)-Caught the leaders with a 57.1 back half and now steps up. At this price is worth using, and has shown the ability to win at this level. Nick Roland will need to be closer to the top earlier in the mile, if so could surprise.
7-Gorgeous For Real (5/2)-Drops to the level of its last win that came 2 back. Logical play will likely be bet down and deserves respect.

Race 9 (8:56 PM PST)

1-Cal's Hope (9/2)-Cal simply doesn't like to win and is 1-32. It's near the end of the meet and if there was a time to cash the top check this is probably it. Lemoyne Svendsen could look to get a close-up seat and get sucked around to roll by late.
8-California Rocks (2-1)-Came off a sick scratch with a decent effort and was off 3 weeks before that start. Luke Plano sticks and despite the post draw this is the program chalk. Shouldn't have to break a sweat to land on the point and is the likely picture taker with a well rated mile.

Race 10 (9:18 PM PST)

3-Cenalta Token (8/5)-The short price is not easy to swallow but this is a soft bunch. The mare has won 4 of 16 at CalX and may have met a beatable field.
4-Prom Queen (5/2)-This is another with a questionable work ethic that lands in a good spot to post a win. Should be a player but needs Svendsen to work a smooth trip.

Race 11 (9:40 PM PST)

2-Iconic Image (4-1)-Come off a flat effort when dropped to face this kind. Probably is best suited to win by racing on the point. It looks like Roland could leave and try to control the mile.
3-Cenalta Token (8/5)-This the level for the Rene Goulet entry to shine. Jacob Cutting could work a stalking trip and look to sweep by off cover.
4-Prom Queen (5/2)-Went into the Jose Castillo barn on March 10 and since then has been in dull form. Drops to a soft spot, comes back in sequence, and could be ready to post a win versus this bunch.

0.20 Pick 4

1,4,7/1,8/3,4/2,3,4
Total Bet=$7.20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:21 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #6

#8 Readthecliffnotes	He goes second off the break after a fairly even comeback effort in which he just got past a few of them late. Think he's in line for a great tactical trip behind a couple more committed pace players.
#4 Ardanwood	He and #6 Camp Daddy are probably the most committed pace in here, and that makes this one a danger if nobody presses him too much early on. Capable of better than his last.
#3 Cantstealmythunder	The form is inconsistent, but his better recent stuff might keep him in the picture to finish for a piece as he makes his first career dirt start. Maybe he'll like it here.
Race Summary	Readthecliffnotes should get a pretty nice go of things today, and he presumably has some upside in the second start off the layoff.

Hawthorne - Race #7

#1 Tea With Lemon	He went to the bench off the flat July run here last year, but there are a couple races on his page that might keep him in the frame if he's ready to go.
#6 Kingswood	He has been in with a lot better company than this in those races on his page, but the last couple aren't really that compelling. Better stuff would do, but I'm not sold he's getting near it.
#2 Maqamat	The easier spot gives him some claim on this one, but I worry that he'll come alive too late like he has done in a lot of those starts on his page. Tough call.
Race Summary	Tea With Lemon doesn't look terrible if you draw a line through the last one, so I'll hope that he's ready to fire fresh and can get back to something competitive today.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#11 Grand Festival	He has had a lot of chances, but the three-back Tampa run gives a little hope at what should be a solid price. Worth a tiny swing in what otherwise feels like a top-heavy race.
#5 Secession	He's the one to beat with a little bit of positional pace that might serve him well as he makes his local debut. Some of the Turfway form could make him tough.
#9 Sendemdowntheroad	Modest expectations for this debuter out of the Rivelli barn, but he's not meeting a whole lot and wouldn't shock at first asking at this level.
Race Summary	Grand Festival isn't a strong lean, but he should be a solid price in a race where there isn't a whole lot to get excited about.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Golden Hour Wagers

PURCHASE

Golden Hour Wagers - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick 4
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $55,000 • Post: 4:38P
SA - R8 - FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER,126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING, OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (NON-STARTERS FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN THEIR LAST 3 STARTS PREFERRED)(HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SWEET HELLO is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * UNCONTROLLABLE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TIZZY TWISTER: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SWEET HELLO: Toda y is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. IRISH WAHINE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	UNCONTROLLABLE	8/5	9/2
6	TIZZY TWISTER	3/1	7/1
2	SWEET HELLO	8/1	8/1
5	IRISH WAHINE	4/1	8/1
1	WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE	5/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SWEET HELLO	2	8/1	Front-runner	84	79	81.8	62.2	53.2
3	UNCONTROLLABLE	3	8/5	Trailer	93	90	55.3	86.5	83.0
6	TIZZY TWISTER	6	3/1	Trailer	98	92	50.0	62.5	58.5
5	IRISH WAHINE	5	4/1	Trailer	89	77	47.2	82.4	77.9
1	WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE	1	5/2	Trailer	88	84	44.8	77.8	70.8
4	FLYMETOTHEMOONBABY	4	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	80	57.8	63.8	51.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:22 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for HawthornePURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race 3	WPS (12% Takeout) / $1 Exacta / 50 Cent Trifecta / 20 Cent Superfecta 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) / $1 Pick 6 (Races 3-8) / $1 Daily Double
Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 58 • Purse: $17,000 • Post: 3:50P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (HORSEMEN ENTERING ILLINOIS-BRED HORSES IN OPEN CLAIMING RACES WILL BE ASKED TO DECLARE THEIR CLAIMING PRICE AT TIME OF ENTRY). ILLINOIS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $37,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * POSITIONDUMONI: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. COWGIRL FRANKIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. COCKTAIL CUTIE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	POSITIONDUMONI	7/2	9/2
5	COWGIRL FRANKIE	5/1	5/1
6	COCKTAIL CUTIE	5/2	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	FERGIE ATTACK	3	4/1	Stalker	58	46	58.6	47.8	38.3
2	POSITIONDUMONI	2	7/2	Stalker	66	62	51.4	56.8	51.3
4	HOP AWAY HOTTIE	4	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	55	51	53.0	45.6	34.6
6	COCKTAIL CUTIE	6	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	66	57	52.0	50.0	45.5
5	COWGIRL FRANKIE	5	5/1	Trailer	73	64	2.2	56.8	54.3
1	FREEDOM ATTACK	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	65	60.6	42.8	33.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:23 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Laurel - Race #9 - Post: 4:26pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating:

#5 A B C YA (ML=7/2)
#1 CONNECTAMUNDO (ML=2/1)
#7 DIVINE CHILD (ML=3/1)

A B C YA - This jock and trainer have a favorable return on investment when they team up. Morici brings him back again. I propose you stick with this live gelding. I like the case that this gelding's last speed fig, 66, is tops in this field. CONNECTAMUNDO - McMahon drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more data to think this horse should run well at this level. Ranks number one in EPS (earnings per start). A solid try in this race will boost the lifetime earnings. DIVINE CHILD - Mancilla drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to figure that this horse has a shot at this level. I like this thoroughbred. Finished in front of today's favorite last out at Laurel, and I think he will do well versus this field today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 UNCLE CHINITO (ML=5/2), #2 UNDAUNTED STORM (ML=8/1),

UNCLE CHINITO - Notched a quite unimpressive speed rating last time out in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race on April 7th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that number. UNDAUNTED STORM - Oddsmaker's morning line of 8/1 make this racer a pass by my standards.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - CONNECTAMUNDO - After a freshening, has had a few races and today he enters a sprint race. Should be back in form, so I expect this horse to perform well right here.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 A B C YA on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:23 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Allowance - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 84

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ROCK YA LATER 5/2
# 5 INVINCIBLE STREAK 9/2
# 2 JESS AN AMERICAN 3/1

ROCK YA LATER looks respectable to best this field. He has put up formidable numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well against this group of horses. Lately Rivera has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. Rivera has one of the strongest jock ROI's on the grounds, returning to gamblers +17 percent. INVINCIBLE STREAK - He has been running solidly and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most respectable in this field. Solid average speed figs in longer quarter horse races make this equine a solid choice. JESS AN AMERICAN - Has decent Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. It's a good signal that Olmstead is using Escobedo on this entrant.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:23 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 77

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 28 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 28 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 KID BLUE 10/1
# 6 NO MI CULPA 2/1
# 3 MURAT 3/1

I've got to go with KID BLUE especially at a such a nice price. Diaz has this horse racing well and is a very strong pick based on the competitive Equibase Speed Figs recorded in sprint races recently. He should be given consideration given the strong speed figures. Had one of the most respectable Equibase Speed Figs of this group in his last contest. NO MI CULPA - Ought to come out solid - I have liked the way this horse has moved swiftly to the lead recently. Figueroa is very serious with this one, wheeling him right back. MURAT - Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt sprint contests in this bunch. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 77 - of his last affair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 04-28-2024, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3 - Post: 1:32pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $25,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#4 SCALLYWAG (ML=5/2)

SCALLYWAG - This gelding is in superb condition right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back promptly. I like this gelding. Has the top earnings per race in this contest.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 PAEZ (ML=3/1), #7 ROUKI (ML=4/1), #5 EIGHTYSIXCHEVY (ML=9/2),

PAEZ - This horse hasn't been close at the wire of late. ROUKI - I find it hard to invest in any entrant in a sprint event at 4/1 when he hasn't shown any successful endeavors in sprints in the last couple months. Would have to improve off that eighth place finish last time to make an impact here. This horse ran a mediocre speed fig last race out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's race running that number. EIGHTYSIXCHEVY - Just don't believe he is pegged at the proper price at the probable odds.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 SCALLYWAG to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 7
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None