Tuesday 4/30/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #5

#14 Oscars World	He needs a lot of scratch help to get in, but coming out of a race that was much tougher than what he's going to find in this spot today if he heads to post.
#6 Battle of Normandy	He's the likeliest winner in this group while dropping out of graded stakes company, but he was beaten at 4/5 a couple times last year against similar, so I wouldn't argue too hard if you wanted to stand against. Think he'll finish best.
#5 Millers Rite	Lots going on here as he moves around two turns on the turf for the first time while rising to try winners, but he has a little pedigree appeal for the new trip at what should be a nice price.
Race Summary	Oscars World probably doesn't run today, but he's interesting if he does while coming out of a graded spot behind a pretty talented winner.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#8 Admissible	She might offer a midrange price while being capable of something better than she showed last time around. I think the Gulfstream form was encouraging, and maybe a slight bounce back keeps her in the frame with these.
#1 Queen of the Mud	I probably won't go any deeper than these two, as she's already a bit of a proven commodity on the turf in a spot with a couple sharp dirt pace types lined up. Perfect tracking trip inside?
#4 Quick Munny	Dangerous speed has run some big ones, but she probably has company early today and might be a little overbet here?
Race Summary	Admissible has some appeal after wide and even run at Keeneland last out, and I think the race flow might work in her favor to run on late.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#11 Bad Boy For Life	Decent enough lean for me to this one in the finale while dropping back in for a tag after a couple unsuccessful starts against tougher. The barn has done solid work in these kinds of local spots. Enough to like at a midrange price.
#1 Global Stage	He's probably supposed to drill these after landing three underneath shares with special weight types, but he's almost sure to be odds-on for the third time in a row.
#10 Maliblue	He battled and faded in the debut run, but he took some cash that day and now goes for the new team off the claim -- could see him being better meant than the running line suggests.
Race Summary	Bad Boy For Life gets back into what is probably a better spot for him after a couple special weight runs, and he might be sitting on something better in this second start off the brief break.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #1

#6 MAGIC IN MOTION (3-1)	Was in motion for too long before debut race, today’s Best Bet.
#7 HOOSIER DADDY NOW (7-2)	Breezed a :48 bullet for return, presumably with blinkers on.
#1 KNEEDEEPJUSTICE (9-5)	Second against ‘Motion’ off six-month layoff, moves outside in.
Race Summary	MAGIC IN MOTION took some play in his debut, ran off for a half-mile pre-race, then tracked a moderate pace and got up to finish fourth in a 10-horse field. He gets Lasix again and gets a strong call for a win and place bet.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #2

#4 DRESSED IN PURPLE (5-2)	OK gate works, need not be much, hoping trainer sweeps daily double.
#3 RIBBONS AND LACE (7-2)	Long gap in training, gets in light, dam was 30/5-8-1 and $123k earner.
#5 SALTY SUE (8-5)	Has speed, back in for a tag, suspect company lines offset morning-line price.
Race Summary	Not crazy about morning-line favorite SALTY SUE, who gets class relief for her second start as a 4-year-old, but whose winning rivals when she raced for a claiming tag are a combined 6-for-59 to date. Going to try first-time starter DRESSED IN PURPLE, whose dam was 29/4-4-2 and raced in a Grade 2 stakes in her first season. Bet to win and place.

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race #4

#2 JUSTA SIMPLE GIRL (9-2)	No match for tigress, fits better here, went 3-4 with De La Cruz in 2023.
#5 MY MY MUNNY (5-2)	Projects dream trip in repeat bid in second start of 6-year-old campaign.
#6 GONNABEE (7-2)	Packs late wallop, tries blinkers, new barn good with these types.
Race Summary	JUSTA SIMPLE GIRL dueled for the lead again before odds-on winner Protomagic (8-38, $206k) passed by for her fourth win in a row at Turfway Park. She shortens up to 5-1/2F off a :59-3/5 workout at the Horseshoe but must avoid a front-end battle again. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Claiming $32,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 92 • Purse: $62,000 • Post: 1:14P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. JUMP INTO THE FIRE is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JUMP INTO THE FIRE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. AMAZON QUEEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. LUNA MOTH: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). GUANA CAY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has r un well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. SUNNY ISLE BEACH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	JUMP INTO THE FIRE	2/1	7/2
5	AMAZON QUEEN	4/1	8/1
6	LUNA MOTH	5/2	9/1
1	GUANA CAY	8/1	9/1
4	SUNNY ISLE BEACH	7/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	JUMP INTO THE FIRE	2	2/1	Front-runner	95	84	91.3	81.7	76.2
1	GUANA CAY	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	91	84	87.4	83.4	74.9
5	AMAZON QUEEN	5	4/1	Trailer	93	80	78.2	85.2	80.7
6	LUNA MOTH	6	5/2	Trailer	87	89	74.0	82.8	74.8
4	SUNNY ISLE BEACH	4	7/2	Trailer	90	80	70.6	83.2	77.7
3	MY GOOD FORTUNE	3	6/1	Trailer	89	83	54.2	79.2	69.2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx RacingPURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5)/ Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Maiden Special • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 87 • Purse: $50,000 • Post: 1:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. PRINCE COLTON is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PRINCE COLTON: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top t hree in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LUCKY LINUS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the dis tance/surface.
6	PRINCE COLTON	5/1	8/5
7	LUCKY LINUS	5/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
8	EVOLUTIONARY	8	9/5	Stalker	66	65	47.7	54.5	47.0
6	PRINCE COLTON	6	5/1	Trailer	77	78	68.0	76.0	72.0
7	LUCKY LINUS	7	5/2	Trailer	73	64	64.9	61.0	56.5
1	I NEVER SAY NEVER	1	20/1	Trailer	0	0	34.1	34.1	22.6
4	UNIWINNER	4	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	10.4	56.9	51.9
2	OMAHA EIGHT	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	52.4	49.5	40.5

Unknown Running Style: CONFISCATED (6/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Silvestre - Trainer: Demasi Kathleen A], TEDDYS BAT (8/1) [Jockey: Castillo Angel - Trainer: Velazquez Daniel].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:09pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 OUR BET (ML=2/1)
#6 OKIE TROUBLE (ML=3/1)
#2 PEARL'S CODE (ML=5/2)


OUR BET - Rode this entrant on March 27th and Pusac is back again in the irons in today's contest. Chleborad drops her down to this class level. You don't need too much more from the horse's history to think this animal is in a good spot at this level. I like this mare. Has the uppermost earnings per race in this one. OKIE TROUBLE - I really like sprinters that make a fast turnaround. The jock/conditioner twosome of Triana and Padilla has a strong return on investment together. PEARL'S CODE - This affair sets up for this filly. I call this the 'Lone Stalker' scenario. When the real running starts, she'll be in perfect stalking position. Have to make this filly a strong challenger; she comes off a solid outing on April 9th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SAYAAD AIN'T SO (ML=6/1), #3 SERENDIPITY COCO (ML=8/1),

SAYAAD AIN'T SO - Hard to take this pony at these odds after the finish (eighth) in the last affair. Don't feel this horse will make an impact in today's event. That last speed rating was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. SERENDIPITY COCO - This mare hasn't had any positive outcomes in short distance affairs in the last sixty days. I'd like to see more preferred recent showings with morning line of 8/1.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - OKIE TROUBLE - This filly has the best last speed figure at Will Rogers Downs. Must be considered in your gambling.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Save the win bets for another race
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 73

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 30, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 FATHER WALSH 5/2
# 4 FOLLOW THE SIGNS 2/1
# 2 BIG BAD BUD 10/1

FATHER WALSH looks to be a strong contender. The big drop in company can only help this entrant today. This gelding should be given a shot just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. Has competitive Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look. FOLLOW THE SIGNS - Has run solidly when racing a dirt sprint race. Could beat this field given the 72 speed rating garnered in his last outing. BIG BAD BUD - Should be given consideration as he drops to compete against this softer bunch.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,200 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#3 ENZOEXPRESS (ML=8/1)
#2 MUNI MUNI SLEW (ML=7/2)


ENZOEXPRESS - If this gelding gets out of the gate cleanly, he'll be tough to catch. Don't throw this thoroughbred out due to his last affair at Mahoning Valley Race Cour where he finished seventh on a track listed as good. Should improve this time around. MUNI MUNI SLEW - Every now and then I take some time off, when I come back to the track I feel refreshed. I think it's the same with this gelding as he always seems to run well after a vacation. You'll be making money right and left by turning your racing money onto this jockey/trainer combination.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 K P SILVER BULLET (ML=9/5), #4 CRIMSON ROCKET (ML=2/1), #6 THE RED MAN (ML=5/1),

K P SILVER BULLET - Difficult to play any thoroughbred in a sprint clash at 9/5 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple of months. I normally try to beat this kind of chalk. Extended vacation and no drop in level of competition. CRIMSON ROCKET - Run-of-the-mill speed fig last out at Mahoning Valley Race Cour at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't feel this runner will improve too much in today's race. THE RED MAN - Hard to put any cash on this gelding on the win end. Likes to finish in the money though.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 ENZOEXPRESS is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $13500 Class Rating: 78

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING 10,000 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JANUARY 30 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 KEEP ATTACKING 7/2
# 6 CHARLIE'S BEACH 9/2
# 1 CHARTED 2/1

KEEP ATTACKING looks to be a solid contender. Ought to be given consideration in this contest if only for the decent Equibase Speed Figure earned in the last competition. Must be given a chance given the class of races run recently. Has garnered formidable Equibase Speed Figs in dirt sprint races in the past. CHARLIE'S BEACH - Must be given consideration based on the very good speed fig recorded in the last contest. Some strong figs have been posted by this trainer's starters racing at this distance and surface. CHARTED - Will probably go to the lead and could never look back. This animal is prominent in this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface.