Wednesday 5/1/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #6

#3 Claire's Jete	She might be quick enough to get in the mix while moving to the turf, and she has logged a couple works since the Keeneland debut run. Wouldn't be surprised to see better today.
#5 Bolt's Broad	She's short on excuses at this point, but her better stuff stacks up well enough. Spying trip might give her the perfect chance to finally punch home.
#9 Pendulum	She has been a logical player in all five career starts, but I worry she's going to be a bit overbet again today compared to her realistic chances of landing this.
Race Summary	#11 Leo Toro is another to consider while going second out after what feels like a useful debut, but Claire's Jete might have some upside on the surface switch while also making her second start.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#2 Donegal Forever	He comes out of a decent enough race and has the feel of the kind of horse who might enjoy a more leisurely marathon run while hopefully keeping the chalk in his sights.
#7 Next	Probably silly to stand against him after the kinds of races he posted on his page last fall, but his only loss last year came off the bench, and I wonder if the presence of Classic Causeway will keep him just honest enough?
#3 Red Run	He might be able to land a piece of this with a one-paced kind of effort, but I wonder if he's just the tiniest bit light to land it?
Race Summary	Donegal Forever needs better than we've seen, but he's an unknown commodity at this kind of on long trip, and he might find himself in a good spot while watching it unfold.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#2 Double Your Money	His overall form might be a bit stronger than it looks at first glance, as he's been in the frame late in all three of his lifetime stakes tries. Some intrigue while cutting back.
#6 No Nay Mets	He can stick around better with the comeback under his belt, and maybe fans get a touch better price on the board today?
#8 Bear River	He has actually run OK in a couple of those turf starts, and he might be able to get past a couple of these late to share at a price.
Race Summary	The race shape might work perfectly for Double Your Money to sit just a few lengths behind the pace and hope an early battle leaves some tough forward players vulnerable late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#8 TOUGH DAME (15-1)	Showed stretch pulse in first route attempt behind odds-on winner.
#7 STYLISH ANNA (3-1)	Should lead for as far as she goes while making third start in 25 days.
#5 LUCKY IN LOVE (5-2)	Rallied for minor awards in 5 of last 7 starts, changes riders.
Race Summary	TOUGH DAME is worth a longshot stab on the class drop in her third start. She took some money but never threatened after a bumpy start in her debut, then stretched out in distance on the turf and improved in the stretch while no threat to the 1-to-5 winner or 4-1 runner-up. She switches back to the main track and gets ample pace flow to rally into. Bet to win and place and play an 8/5,7/ALL trifecta.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #2

#1 R FIREBIRD (3-1)	Visually impressive in maiden romp, sheds 7 pounds, barn keeps ‘em sharp.
#3 ROCK ME AMADEUS (5-2)	Lived up to the hype despite trouble in her first start at 7F.
#2 BUCCHANERA (4-1)	Dramatic form reversal with Lasix for new barn after three months away.
Race Summary	R FIREBIRD awakened on the class drop last out, surviving a spirited 3-way duel on the backstretch to take the lead, then accelerating powerfully in mid-stretch to keep the trip-sitting runner-up at bay. Bet to win and place and play 1-2, 1-3 and 3-1 exactas.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#1 OUR LITTLE TIGER (6-1)	Can stalk and pounce as light weight in field off useful route try.
#7 KIKI LOVE (9-5)	Strictly the one to beat on class drop with proven record at the distance.
#3 BOY IS SHE A LADY (7-2)	Ran second in 7F race two back dominated by closers.
Race Summary	OUR LITTLE TIGER saved ground while chasing class-dropping fave Calendula (10-48, $110k) but finished out of the money in her first route attempt. She sheds 5 pounds and draws the rail on the cutback to a more suitable distance. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Thistledown

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 2	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) $.10 Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $28,000 • Post: 1:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. IRISH UNITY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FREE SAILIN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the l ast seven days. IRISH UNITY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CHANNEL FURY: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff.
2	FREE SAILIN	3/1	9/2
1	IRISH UNITY	5/1	6/1
3	CHANNEL FURY	2/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	IRISH UNITY	1	5/1	Front-runner	92	91	91.8	88.0	80.5
3	CHANNEL FURY	3	2/1	Stalker	99	97	76.6	90.2	84.7
2	FREE SAILIN	2	3/1	Stalker	105	104	74.2	101.2	98.2
4	STORMIN'UNCLEJACK	4	10/1	Stalker	91	92	61.8	88.0	81.5
5	EMPIRE'S FIRE	5	9/5	Trailer	95	97	65.8	93.8	87.3
6	CREDIT RIVER	6	15/1	Alternator/Trailer	96	80	47.4	66.2	57.2

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta DownsPURCHASE

Delta Downs - Race 8	Exacta / Trifecta (.50 min.) / Superfecta (.10 min.) Daily Double (Races 8-9)($1 min.) / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) / Pick 5 (Races 8-12)
Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 77 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 8:01P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEARS OLD FILLIES, ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2022, WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE LASSIE FUTURITY. $500 DUE THE DAY BEFORE ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $6,000.00 DUE THE DAY BEFORE ENTRY TO TRIALS. WEIGHTS: 124 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO NOON THE DAY BEFORE ENTRY TO TRIALS. CASH OR CASHIER CHECK ONLY !)(AT THE DISCRETION OF DELTA DOWNS THE TRIALS MAY BE RUN WEDNESDAY MAY 1, AND THURSDAY MAY 2, 2024. IF ONLY ONE DAY OF TRIALS IS DEEMED APPROPRIATE THE TRIALS WILL BE RUN ON WEDNESDAY MAY 1, 2024.(*ALL HORSES NOMINATED TO THIS RACE ARE SUBJECT TO SUBSTANCE TESTING (HAIR TESTING) AS OUTLINED BY LQHBA REFER TO WWW.LQHBA.COM OR WWW.DELTADOWNSRACING.COM).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * JP SPECIAL JOLLA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at th e distance/surface.
8	JP SPECIAL JOLLA	5/2	6/5

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ROGUE EFFORT	2	15/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	9.1	0.0	0.0
8	JP SPECIAL JOLLA	8	5/2	Average	80	80	0.0	0.0	0.0
9	MAGGIES DASHN EAGLE	9	7/2	Fast	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: EYESA RACY SECRET (5/1) [Jockey: Castaneda Noe - Trainer: Hernandez Leonel], GRAY THORNS (12/1) [Jockey: Garcia Jr Juan F - Trainer: Sanchez Hector J], RF GOLD HEART DUCK (6/1) [Jockey: Gutierrez Arnulfo - Trainer: Roberts Sr K

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 68

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 1 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 K D KAKES 3/1
# 5 SONADOR 5/2
# 6 ARLYNE'S CROWN 2/1

K D KAKES figures to be the wager in here. This filly gets a boost with Gonzalez in the irons. Could best this group based on the speed rating - 67 - of her last effort. Has garnered solid speed figs in dirt sprint races in the past. SONADOR - Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying decent figures lately and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 62 under similar conditions. Bettors get an edge when playing this trainer in a dirt sprint race. ARLYNE'S CROWN - This mare obviously likes the distance, going 2 / 13 in her races as of late. Will probably compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this group.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $36000 Class Rating: 66

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 LIL GIN N CLASS 5/2
# 8 SPOONER 6/1
# 10 GALOSHES 8/1

My pick in here is LIL GIN N CLASS. Could best this group of animals here, showing respectable numbers of late. The speed fig of 73 from her last affair looks competitive in here. Has recorded strong speed figures in dirt sprint races in the past. SPOONER - This filly looks good in this event since Klopp has a strong win percent with horses going this distance. Roman has been sizzling the last month, winning at a nifty 18 percent clip. GALOSHES - Looks strong versus this group of animals and ought to be one of the front-runners. Entrants trained by Lauer in dirt sprint races are normally sound.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:46pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $16,000 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#1 PUT IT BACK DAVE (ML=5/1)
#8 HIT THE BULLSEYE (ML=9/2)


PUT IT BACK DAVE - You always have to be on the patrol for bankroll building jockey/trainer tandems; we have one right here. A big drop down in class figure points from his April 17th race at Evangeline Downs. Based on that knowledge, I will give this thoroughbred the edge. HIT THE BULLSEYE - Recent speed figs show solid pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CAJUN CYCLONE (ML=8/5), #4 AUTUMN ROB (ML=4/1), #3 HUDSON'S DAY (ML=8/1),

CAJUN CYCLONE - If you keep selecting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be frustrated frequently. AUTUMN ROB - Tough to wager on any steed in a short distance clash if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple months. HUDSON'S DAY - This questionable contender showed very little last time finishing tenth. Don't see any hint of improvement in today's event. Don't think this horse will do much running in today's event. That last fig was mediocre when compared with today's class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #1 PUT IT BACK DAVE on the nose if you can get odds of 6/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #5 - Post: 2:45pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $32,000 Class Rating: 96

Rating:

#7 CHANTRY FLATS (ML=8/1)
#6 BOITANO (ML=6/1)
#3 GREY STREAK (ML=6/1)


CHANTRY FLATS - I have to figure Newton is making a good move here. This gelding can only benefit from the shorter trip. BOITANO - My experience tells me to be on the alert for this horse in this event GREY STREAK - This thoroughbred should be motoring in the stretch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 COOL QUARTET (ML=5/2), #8 CLASSIC KING (ML=7/2), #2 ATKINS (ML=4/1),

COOL QUARTET - I usually try to beat these types of probable favorites off the long layoff. This horse ran a substandard speed fig last out. He shouldn't run better and will probably suffer defeat in today's race running that number. CLASSIC KING - This runner ran a common rating in the last race. He shouldn't run much better and will probably lose in today's event running that rating. ATKINS - Don't feel this horse will do much running in today's race. That last fig was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 CHANTRY FLATS to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	7 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Skip