Sunday 5/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:17 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 5/5/24

May 5, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, May 5, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-Marsh Creek
Backups/savers: 5-Highly Desirable; 7-Abitmischievous.

Forecast: Marsh Creek has done some very good work leading up to his racing debut, though it can’t be said he’s bred for grass. Nonetheless, here he is, in a turf sprint from the rail, in a field that really didn’t come up strong. If this grandson of the top class mare Indian Blessing can run, he can run, regardless of the surface, and with the barn’s “go-to” jockey J. Hernandez taking the call this sophomore son of Arrogate looks like a very live item. We suspect that if he breaks cleanly, he’ll be hard to beat.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 4-Slew’s Joy; 5-Established.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Slew’s Joy is a first-off-the-claim play for M. Glatt (24% with this angle) and also is making his first start as a gelding. Taken for $16,000 and returning for $10,000, the son of Slew’s Tiznow doesn’t have a healthy pattern, but on the barn switch alone probably deserves top billing in a weak affair. Established is comfortably drawn outside, drops to his lowest level ever, and is a three time winner over the local dirt track. Low percentage connections notwithstanding, the veteran gelding is the one to fear most.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:00 ET Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 2-All That Glory; 7-Tees Touch (GB); 5-Cathal (Ire).
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: All That Glory, a solid runner-up over this course and distance in a similar maiden grass dash for older horses, probably won’t have to improve much at all to graduate today. The T. Yakteen-trained colt just earned a career top speed figure that points him out as strictly the one to beat. A steady, strong work tab since raced is another plus. Tees Touch (GB) and Cathal (Ire) are Irish invaders making their U.S. debuts after displaying some promise during their juvenile campaigns. The former, a first time gelding trained by P. D’Amato, was 40-1 in his only start but ran quite well to be second before being privately purchased and imported. The latter, a good runner-up in a 14 runner affair while almost four lengths clear of the rest in a representative race at Dundalk in November, should be fit enough for J. Sadler to at least give a good account of himself.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Rhino
Backups/savers: 6-Mystic Spirit.

Forecast: Rhino is far from trustworthy but he’s back on dirt today and may appreciate the surface switch. Beaten as the favorite in both of his recent races following a layoff without no visible excuses, the son of Texas Ryano projects as the logical pacesetter and may be able to stay the course in a field lacking in late speed. Though a likely winner, he offers no value at 8/5 on the morning line.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:04 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Halfway Line (GB); 7-Mystification.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Here’s a challenging turf miler for first level allowance older horses. Use as many as your budget allows. Halfway Line (GB) hasn’t been particularly impressive in his a.m. breezes since arriving from France, but he’s form overseas is pretty good, so if he brings his best stuff in his U. S. debut he should be very competitive. He gets Lasix and A. Fresu and figures to be doing his best work late. Mystification is lightly raced with room to improve and finished a solid third under these conditions last month after making the pace under pressure throughout. His only win as accomplished as the controlling speed, so we suspect that strategy will be employed again today.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:35 ET Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 5-Show Card; 1-Scary Fast Ride.
Backups/savers:

Forecast: Show Card looks like a short price in this first level allowance sprint. She’s drawn cozily outside, earned a career top speed figure in her recent maiden score, and likely will continue to improve as she gains added experience for B. Baffert. Scary Fast Ride returns to the main track after failing to negotiate the Hillside Course in her most recent outing. With two wins and a second in three career outings over the local main dirt track, the S. McCarthy-trained mare seems likely to return to her best form today. She’s not a particularly quick type leaving the gate, though, so she’ll have to avoid trouble from her rail draw.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Alluring
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Alluring had a tough beat in a similar Hillside sprint for sophomore fillies last month but we’re expecting the talented sprinter to break through today in this year’s edition of the Senorita S.-G3. She employs an effective second flight, stalking style, retains regular pilot U. Rispoli, and shows speed figures that are gradually rising. The R. Mandella-trained daughter of Ghostzapper is ready for a stakes win, and at 3-1 on the morning line offers a reasonable gamble and an attractive rolling exotic single.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:40 ET Grade: C+
Main ticket: Bag’s Gold; 5-Crowining Gold
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Bag’s Gold has lacked punch when it’s been needed the most in recent races, so we’re not sure he can be counted on but on pure form the Vronsky gelding should be able to handle this restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming assignment. His recent numbers have been solid, so we’ll put him on top but with trepidation. Crowning Gold is a strong fit at this level and is re-equipped with blinkers, so we’ll toss him in as well.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:10 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 7-Big Summer; 10-Just Nails.
Backups/savers: 5-Excelia (Ire).

Forecast: Big Summer usually prefers to finish second or third (10 times) rather than win (four times), but this is a field the veteran mare can beat with one of her better efforts if she’s ready in her comeback. The barn has been ice cold all year and its record with layoff runners is weak, so there are question marks. Still, the daughter of Mr. Big is a three time winner over the local turf course and her work tab should have her plenty fit. Just Nails shows the route-to-sprint angle that always catches the eye and a repeat of her race before last – she was beaten a nose at this distance over the flat course while earning a career top number – makes here strictly the one to beat.

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RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Lincoln Hawk (Ire) ; 9-City Exile (GB).
Backups/savers: 6-Reckless Spirit.; 1-Barely Functional.

Forecast: Lincoln Hawk (Ire) was badly victimized by the race shape (slow early, fast late) and could make no impression when unplaced in a similar spot over 10 furlongs last time out. This shortening to a mile should help produced more pace, so this Irish-bred gelding has a chance to improve big time at a good price (he’s 8-1 on the morning line). City Exile (GB), freshened since early February, likes to lag and then blast home and like our top pick can be dangerous if he can get some help up front.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:17 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 5, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 14-race card and the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-One Last Laugh (5-1)-Outraced his odds last time versus this kind from the rail. Hunter Meyers needs to put this 7-year-old in a position to win and shouldn't be out of place tonight.
4-Louis The Horse N (5-1)-Aaron Merriman worked a smooth trip last week and won by open lengths. Steps-up but does good work at Nfld (6-3-2-0) and should offer a square price.
5-Mull Of Kintyre (7/2)-Has been in the hunt at this level and Justin Irvine can get the lead off the gate. Probably has the best gate speed and that tactical advantage could be the winning difference.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Lake Charles (3-1)-Tries hard and could beat this scattered crew but will need some hot fractions. Pretty much everyone moves up and it is not an easy race to read. This veteran can roll late and Irvine could have in play.
2-Cowboy Cool (4-1)-The Burke-Wrenn combo is tough to ignore as they click for 33% winners. Hard to leave off the ticket and should be in the hunt but doesn't make a habit of winning here (12-1-2-3).
7-Nvrfearlloydishere (5-1)-Bumps up after taking advantage of a pocket ride to take a picture. Beat Open company at Nfld in March and could be heard from with the right trip. Looking for a price and may be overlooked.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Ego Trippin (2-1)-Left to get a close up seat last time and took the lead early on. But was caught by the the morning line chalk #1 who came off cover to win its 2nd straight. Will look for a different outcome this time as Aaron Merriman grabs the lines.
5-Rock The Hill (5/2)-Will look to fade #1 the 9/5 chalk and get more value. Irvine should have the pedal down and has the gate speed to get the top or the pocket. The Roegner-Irvine combo has clicked for 32% winners over the last 30 days.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-Sawyer's Desire (9/5)-Makes the 2nd start off the bench and could be ready to roll with the inside draw. The short price isn't easy to take. But this veteran is like most in the field, a win at this level hasn't happened for a while. But back class could show tonight.
5-White Hair Rocks (7/2)-Beat this kind from the rail 2 back. Has enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and could be a clean trip away from another picture.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,4,5/1,2,7/2,5/1,5
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Hawthorne - Race #3

#2 Beehive	Not sure the price is going to be much, but I think she's supposed to be tough here on the rise after leading the whole way last out for an easy graduation. Might be able to control things again today?
#6 Reba Attack	She started putting things together in recent starts, and she will probably offer another appealing enough price on the board, as she never seems to take much cash. Perfect spying trip.
#1 Miss River Rat	Wonder if she may still get another chance around two turns someday, but her lack of pace makes her a tough sell against this group. She's talented enough to land this, but I really don't think she's getting the right race flow.
Race Summary	Beehive has been pretty honest through her five-race career, but she posted a sharp score last out when controlling the tempo, and she's not meeting any other super committed pace today.

Hawthorne - Race #5

#8 Calisue	She steps up off the $8,000 claim at Tampa last out, and there is some decent turf form on the page from last year. Can win right back.
#3 I'm Box Office	She has shown a little talent, and she returns off the bench after a flat run here in August. Guessing we'll see a better effort today and end up drawing a line through that one
#2 R Katiebug	She's an honest type who can do a little bit of everything, and she is fast enough to be up on the splits today but can rate a touch if needed.
Race Summary	Calisue might find a good spot spying the quicker players, and she almost always brings her baseline effort. Price might be playable enough.

Hawthorne - Race #8

#3 Performance Plus	His only turf tries came in tougher spots in New Orleans, but he made mild moves in both of those races late last year. Might stack up OK with these.
#2 Gianno	Never super thrilled for a dropper off a dull effort, but the class relief might help as he tries turf for the first time with a sire on top who gets decent turf numbers.
#7 Righteous Freedom	His form since coming back off the break hasn't been much to write home about, and now he drops in for a tag for the first time -- might win this anyway, but I'll let him beat me.
Race Summary	Performance Plus has some midrange price appeal while trying the turf again, and I don't think there's anyone in here that you really have to be that afraid of.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 2	Leg 2 of the Tropical Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $48,000 • Post: 4:18P
GP - R7 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). FOR STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES)(MAIDEN RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BIG BAND LUZZIANN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BIG BAND LUZZIANN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CRYSTAL COAST: Hor se ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. JUDGE JUDITH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	BIG BAND LUZZIANN	4/1	4/1
8	CRYSTAL COAST	5/2	5/1
2	JUDGE JUDITH	8/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	BIG BAND LUZZIANN	6	4/1	Front-runner	87	87	84.4	85.3	82.3
8	CRYSTAL COAST	8	5/2	Front-runner	85	78	82.6	84.2	78.2
2	JUDGE JUDITH	2	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	85	86	70.2	80.8	73.8
9	BOSTON PRINCESS	9	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	86	80	76.6	79.8	67.8
4	LADY DOMINANCE	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	88	40.8	67.3	58.3
7	BURNAWAY	7	3/1	Trailer	81	77	58.5	74.0	60.5
5	VICTORY BADGE	5	15/1	Trailer	76	66	38.5	66.1	49.6
3	NEOM CITY	3	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	79	72.3	72.3	58.3
1	PRETTYKEEN	1	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	75	69.8	76.2	70.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for CamareroPURCHASE

Camarero - Race 3	Pick 5 (3-7) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 3-4
Claiming $14,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 46 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 3:35P
FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 20 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 5 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $14,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * CROWN JAK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CHEROKEE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. SHE HAS CLASS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
5	CROWN JAK	4/1	7/2
3	CHEROKEE	9/5	9/2
1	SHE HAS CLASS	3/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CROWN JAK	5	4/1	Front-runner	59	58	69.0	37.6	33.1
3	CHEROKEE	3	9/5	Front-runner	39	43	47.6	46.4	42.9
6	JUST A FACTOR	6	5/2	Front-runner	46	30	40.0	32.8	26.3
4	AGAVE MIST	4	5/1	Front-runner	34	36	36.6	32.2	20.2
7	DAWN MOON	7	7/2	Front-runner	34	36	27.8	27.4	16.4
2	FROSTED BREES	2	2/1	Stalker	34	36	35.2	30.8	20.3
1	SHE HAS CLASS	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	41	28	46.8	45.4	37.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Remington Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 62

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 PHELICITOUS 4/1
# 8 DOG HOUSE ROSE 8/1
# 4 PAINT ME SWEET G 5/1

I think about PHELICITOUS here. She looks decent in this spot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the midpoint. DOG HOUSE ROSE - Her 58 average has this mare with among the best Equibase Speed Figs here. Looks competitive for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figures in short races lately. PAINT ME SWEET G - Has performed strongly recently in short races, posting a nifty 56 avg speed rating. He has been running soundly lately while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #6 - Post: 3:56pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $111,300 Class Rating: 85

Rating:

#8 CATCH THE DRIFT (ML=8/1)
#2 WORSHIP (ML=4/1)

CATCH THE DRIFT - Casse tried her against the males last time out. This should be a good spot. Always beware the longer priced horse when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. WORSHIP - Maiden is switching over to the dirt, and may not have liked the turf last out. Has a good chance to get to the winner's circle for the 1st time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 HALEY'S HONOR (ML=3/1), #7 MAKE MAGIC (ML=9/2), #3 PROMISING (ML=6/1),

HALEY'S HONOR - This questionable contender will probably be near the rear of the pack as this bunch crosses the finish. MAKE MAGIC - Don't think this steed is worth 9/2 in this race. PROMISING - This filly almost certainly won't be close at the finish.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - CATCH THE DRIFT - Equibase class figure today of 85. Taking a significant drop in the level of competition and should liven up against an easier group. Worth a prime bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #8 CATCH THE DRIFT to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Oaklawn Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $140000 Class Rating: 91

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $24,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE FEBRUARY 4, 2024 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 DIMATIC 5/2
# 9 COUNT DRACULA 5/1
# 6 GIVE ME A REASON 4/1

DIMATIC has a very good shot to take this race. Could best this field based on the speed fig - 87 - of his last contest. Is hard not to consider given the company run in recently. Can't overlook the connections here, a 15 winning percentage, one of the strongest at getting into the winner's circle. COUNT DRACULA - Look for a very good pace improvement from this equine who enters on Lasix today. Solid average speed figures in dirt route races make this horse a solid choice. GIVE ME A REASON - Has run well when racing a dirt route race. This racer has a terrific winning percentage in dirt routes.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-05-2024, 08:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Hawthorne - Race #2 - Post: 3:20pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 68

Rating:

#1 HEAVENLY HASH (ML=8/5)

HEAVENLY HASH - The rider/handler pair of Cohen and Rodriguez has a strong return on investment together. This filly is obviously on the improve with speed figs of 30, 57, 69 last three out. Have to like the way Rodriguez has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 SWEET CRYSTAL (ML=3/1), #3 C C'S WORLD (ML=9/2), #2 YOU'RE A DANDY (ML=5/1),

SWEET CRYSTAL - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent success in sprint affairs in order to bet on her. Would have to move up off that tenth place finish last time to make an impact here. C C'S WORLD - Tough to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the stab. Tough to keep following this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. The rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class rating of today's race. Mark this animal as a likely underpriced contender. YOU'RE A DANDY - If you keep selecting these sort of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be dissatisfied frequently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - HEAVENLY HASH - This widely used handicapping theory still works today. Bet on a sprinter coming back within ten days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 HEAVENLY HASH is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None