3-24-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Robert Ferrringo

0.5-Unit Play. Take Penn State (+10.5) over Florida

Yeah, I know, “why the hell is ******** releasing a 0.5-Unit play?” Well, it’s because I like the situation but with only two games on the board it isn’t like we’re going to fool the oddsmakers. It’s not like they have left the door completely open with this line so it's only worth a dabble. Bottom line: there are a couple weak lines in the Sweet 16 games. But March is just not like Nov. or Dec. where you can find some joke lines to beat. The oddsmakers are on point this time of year and you are essentially going straight-up against the lines. Those aren't the highest value situations so they don't demand regular-sized plays.

But at the same time, I think that the line is at least 3.5 points soft. I originally was going to be dark for today, but this line is just too tantalizing. Penn State is 4-1 ATS as an underdog of 7.0 or more this year and they have managed outright wins at Michigan State and at Illinois. Guys like Jermelle Cornley are all heart and they aren’t going to give up anything. Florida is coming off a blowout win over Miami. But that game was completely different because of the in-state rivalry factor. If you also add in the fact that the Gators may be looking ahead to a trip to New York City (if they win) then you have the makings of a postseason Letdown/Look Ahead situation. Florida doesn’t play any defense and they are just 2-6 ATS against the Big 10. So for all of those reasons it’s worth a (very) small play.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Kevin Rogers

Houston at Utah
Play: Under 193

Both the Rockets and Jazz have tightened up their defense as of late, with the two teams meeting up for the final time in the regular season. The home team has won each of the first three matchups, as Utah knocked off Houston in Salt Lake earlier this month, with the game finishing UNDER the total. The Jazz have gone UNDER the total in eight of their last ten games, with each of their last seven at home going below the total, while only one of those home games have eclipsed tonight's total. All four of Houston's road games this month have finished UNDER the total, with low-scoring victories at San Antonio, Charlotte, New Orleans, and Denver. I see the defensive intensity staying up, with the Rockets and Jazz going UNDER the total.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Chip Chirimbes

Golden State at San Antonio
Play: San Antonio -10.5

The Golden State Warriors have gone in the wrong direction this season after it appeared that they were on the brink of the NBA playoffs last year. San Antonio is getting healthy and are gearing up for the playoffs. This one shouldn't even be close from start to finish. TAKE SPURS!

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Tom Freese

Rockets at Jazz
Pick: Under 193

Houston is in a 26-6 ATS UNDER System that says to Play UNDER on road teams when the Total is 190 to 199.5 points if they are off an underdog win vs. a Division rival if both teams in this game have a winning record. Utah is 20-11 UNDER as favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they are 10-1 UNDER after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Jazz are 7-0 UNDER their last 7 home games and they are 23-9 UNDER their last 32 home games vs. the Rockets. 10* PLAY ON 'UNDER'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Marc Lawrence

91% NBA Fan Appreciation Play

Play: Detroit Pistons +5.5

When the Pistons take on the Bulls in Chicago this evening they will be playing with same season revenge off a SU favorite loss, a role in which Detroit is 29-12 ATS when facing an opponent off a same season revenge game. With Detroit owns a win percentage of .575 or less on the season in these games they improve to 10-1 ATS since 1990. With the Bulls in off back-to-back same season revengers and having a triple revenger up next against Miami, look for the Pistons to hit on all cylinders this evening.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Matt Fagro Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs - Tuesday March 24, 2009 8:35 pm
Pick: 3 units ATS: Golden State Warriors +10.5 (-110)



San Antonio has won 20 straight home meetings against the Warriors and there really is no reason to believe that it will end here. Or is there? The Spurs are not playing good right now as they have dropped two straight games at home and even though those came against the Celtics and Rockets, those losses can linger. Especially when it is tough to get up for the next opponent and what real incentive is there for the Spurs to get up for Golden St.? San Antonio has a pretty big game in Atlanta tomorrow night and that means one thing. Tim Duncan sits either tonight or tomorrow night. It is still undecided on which way the Spurs will go on that and while it is more likely for him to sit tomorrow in the second of the back-to-back set, it could very well be tonight with a much tougher opponent on deck for tomorrow. Either way, we get a good number on a team that is playing pretty well. Golden St. has won four of its last seven games and while it has lost five straight games on the road, the last three have been quite competitive. The Warriors got off to a horrible start this season but since January 11th, they have gone 15-17 which is far from playoff material but considering the start to the season was 10-28, this has been a huge turnaround. It is no coincidence that Golden St. has played better when Monta Ellis is in the lineup. The Warriors are 11-9 in the 20 games he has played in so they are no doubt a better ballclub when he is in the lineup. The Warriors lost by 35 points in the first meeting against the Spurs this year but Ellis was not playing. They lost in overtime at home in the second meeting and that was him having just an average game. It is also important to note that San Antonio had both Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan on the court and they scored 32 points each. The Spurs are without Ginobili and could be without Duncan this time around. Golden St. falls into a very solid situation. Play against favorites of 10 or more points that are averaging between 92 and 98 ppg going up against a team that is allowing more than 102 ppg, after a game where both teams scored 90 points or less. This situation is 25-6 ATS (80.6 percent) since 1996. The philosophy is simple in that a low scoring game could be expected and that always favors the underdog, especially when that underdog is receiving double-digits. Also, Golden St. is 19-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against an opponent this season. 3* Golden St. Warriors.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

JMK winners

10* Utah
10* Spurs
5* Florida

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

vegas-runner | CBB Sides Triple-Dime Bet

650 Auburn -3.0 (-110) SportBet vs 649 Baylor
Analysis: *** NCAABB 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***



Tue, 03/24/09 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NBA Total Double-Dime Bet
646 SAN / 645 GSW Over 207.5 BetUS
Analysis: ** NBA 2* PERSONAL PLAY **

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

NSA's Selection
CBB Penn St @ Florida 9:00 PM EST 20* Florida -10.5
CBB Baylor @ Auburn 7:00 PM EST 10* Auburn -3.5
NBA LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City 8:00 PM EST 10* Oklahoma City +8
NBA Houston @ Utah 10:35 PM EST 10* Houston +5.5
NBA Golden St @ San Antonio 8:30 PM EST 10* San Antonio -8.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Stan Lisowski
4* Auburn
3* Bulls
3* Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Teddy June (major fade material now. He is on a major losing streak and he refuses to update his site showing his 1-12 record)

Rockets +6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Indian Cowboy

6 Unit Play. NBA Total of the Month. Take Under 207.5 between Golden State @ San Antonio Spurs (Tuesday @ 8:30pm est). We hit a big play in cbb yesterday and hopefully that translates into a big play win for us in the nba today. It's been a while since I released a big play in the NBA as I'm not the type of person to release many big plays, but I feel like my research has yielded a potential golden nugget, why not step out? It's a long betting season and our standard wager is 4* and today it is a 6*. It just depends on what presents itself for us to step out or not and today I believe we have a nice spot to do so. The Spurs host the Warriors today and the Spurs come off back to back losses to both Houston and Boston by 2 and 3 points respectively. This team is obviously a bit peeved and the way they show their frustration is through defense. The Spurs have quietly gone under in their last 5 games and 7 of their last 10. They just held the Rockets to 85 points (Under 177) and the Celtics to 77 points (Under 183). Prior to that they held the Timberwolves to under (189.5), Phoenix to 98 points (game totaled at 201) and Charlotte to 78 points (game totaled at 178). Now, they face a Golden State team that is very competent and capable. But, this team struggles against strong defenses on the road. Remember, GS only put up 88 at Chicago, 91 at Detroit and 89 at New Orleans. The Warriors have solid depth but they will be without Biedrins, Crawford and Belinelli is questionable. The last time these two teams met the Spurs won in overtime and that game totaled 215 in overtime and totaled and 190 in regulation. So, for the fact that game totaled 190 in regulation in Golden State, and the fact that this total is set at 207.5 when the Spurs come off back to back home losses is significant. I expect the Spurs to likely give up no more than 90 points to the Warriors today while the put up points in the low 100's likely. I have this game at 193 or so which is a double-digit differential to where the total stands now. The under is 6-0 when the Warriors play a team with a winning home record of more than 60% - meaning when the Warriors play good teams on the road, they hold serve with sound defense against this team. The Under is 5-0 for the Spurs following a straight up loss and the Under is 6-0 for the Spurs when they face a team with winning % less than 40% meaning the Spurs take their anger out well with sound defense off a loss and against weaker teams they play even better defense. Plus, this is a sound public fade which adds a bit of an icing on the cake for us as well. We have quite a bit of factors working for us and it is a long week, but I believe we have a strong shot at a cover for the under here.


4 Unit Play. Take Florida -10.5 over Penn State (Tuesday @ 7pm est). Your write-up by 11am eastern. I'm glad we were able to cash with our 5* selection yesterday on the over between Richmond vs. Charleston. Although, I wish we could have cashed on the secondary play with Belmont who covered the entire game and fell short in the end. We still made some money on Monday and it's a long week. As per today, as you know I follow the Big10 and the SEC closely - both for basketball and football. This is an awful lot of points for a Big 10 team in Penn State and the public seems to agree to a tune of 65%. What you have is what folks will talk about today as a Big10 clash vs. the SEC. Penn State had it fairly easy early in defeating George Mason and Rhode Island at home (both good teams - but both who they faced at home) - as they defeated a top 90 team and a top 75 team. Now, they face a top 30 team in Florida on the road. Remember Penn State lost to Ohio State by 14, Purdue by 14, Michigan by 20 and Minnesota by 20. Florida has played 5 straight unders and Penn State has played 5 of 6 overs. This goes to show that Penn State's offense has been sound at home but on the road they stagger on offense. Plus, their defense is not as sound right now while Florida's defense is solid currently and they are playing great basketball at home. Heck, Florida just beat a solid Miami team at home by 14 who is ranked in the top 40. This team also beat a Jacksonville team at home by 22. Why can't this team beat a Penn State team who is at best as good as Miami and cover the -10.5? Nick C. is considering the NBA draft as a Gator and I would expect him to have a big game today and this puts Billy D on the national spotlight again as one of the two games that is highlighted in the nation today. I expect Florida to take advantage of this situation and be able to produce plenty of fireworks on offense today. Remember, Florida puts up on average 77.5 points per game and they just dropped 74 on a Miami team that plays great defense. If Miami was only able to score 60 on Florida's defense, than Penn State is really going to struggle. Remember, once again, this team put up just 51 points at Michigan, 44 at Wisconsin, 47 at Purdue, 59 at Ohio State and 59 at Minnesota. I have this game around a 76-62 type of ball game as the Gators barely hit the cover, but do so while the majority of the public takes it up the chin a bit here. Remember, it is always a decent bet to fade a public underdog. The Nittany Lions are 1-5 ATS as road underdogs of late and Florida is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Good luck,

Indian Cowboy

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

EZ Winners

1* Auburn -3

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

Kelso:

25 units Bulls
25 units San Antonio

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 3-24-09

fairway jay
Golden State Warriors r645
+9.0 (-110) / 3 units