Wednesday 5/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #4

#6 Vertisalute	She chased briefly before giving way in her career debut here last October, but she's back today with Lasix and a couple improving works under her belt. Wouldn't be a shock from a good outside spying spot.
#3 National Diamond	Someone thought she would be OK at some point, as she was sent to post at 20 cents on the dollar in her debut here last year, and she didn't really pick up at all in that one or her comeback race here last month. Player in a soft spot, but nothing to get too excited about here.
#5 Bold Ruby	She's probably supposed to be tough today while going second off the break after finishing up well enough last out, but she didn't get past anyone in that four-horse field and might be overbet today.
Race Summary	Vertisalute needs to come forward off the first run if she's going to score today, but she has some upside off the break while getting Lasix today. Price might be OK.

Thistledown - Race #6

#5 Bulls N Berry	Like that she's back quick off the good run last time out, and she steps back up while stretching out for the first time. Could see her plugging away to get this.
#4 Flattering Heart	She's another with some proving to do on class, but she has been rallying well at Turfway and can be along for a share of this one.
#1 Remembering	She might drill these without much trouble, but the price is going to be short again after finishing second at 1/5 last time around. She's supposed to win this.
Race Summary	Bulls N Berry and Flattering Heart both have a little bit of midrange price appeal in a race that becomes pretty wide open if you think Remembering is beatable.

Thistledown - Race #8

#7 Lightening Lottie	Can't believe I'm landing here, but I think today is her day. She doesn't have any real excuses anymore, but she is not meeting a deep crew today and gets a great draw to force the issue from the start. Graduation time.
#3 Gemshine	She's a reasonable alternative while getting blinkers off the break, and you can probably forgive her for the last one considering she didn't return to the tab until April.
#5 Thirty Something	Her better stuff holds up well enough to land a piece here, but I'm not totally sold that she's going to find her way past all of these today.
Race Summary	Lightening Lottie is probably another short kind of price, but she's not meeting a whole lot and might finally get home today. Gemshine makes a lot of sense if you draw a line through the last one. Two-horse race?

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Penn National - Race #1

#3 BELLS ARE RINGING (6-1)	Long series of works for debut; dam came out of blocks running.
#2 DONEGAL DANNY (8-5)	Solid numbers as a 2yo, makes seasonal debut with blinkers back on.
#1 EASTER BET (9-5)	Appears stuck in ‘third’ gear thus far, moves outside in.
Race Summary	BELLS ARE RINGING, one of three first-time starters, shows a steady work tab and her dam, Bells Are Ringing (43/5-12-4, $170k), had speed, was a first-out runner-up and a second-out MSW runaway at Penn National. Play 3-1 and 3-2 exactas.

Penn National - Race #3

#4 SOUPER CATCH (4-1)	Classy 10-year-old might remember how against this field.
#7 AMPERSAND (9-2)	Can’t seem to get out of his own way at the start, takes the class plunge.
#3 SIR SAHIB (6-1)	Good move after slow start from post 10 against similar foes.
Race Summary	SOUPER CATCH lacked late kick in a longer route race off the Kreiser claim, but he can make amends with a projected ideal stalking trip. He is reunited with Chiappe, who was aboard when he got beat at 1-to-9 odds. Bet to win and place and play a 3-4-7 exacta box.

Penn National - Race #4

#3 HE IS BAD (3-1)	Good Penn National record, seeks duplicate of latest on barn switch.
#6 KAZ MUNNINGS (7-2)	Steady check-getter at this level and distance, last won with Vargas.
#2 MARTINKELLY (2-1)	Good speed, held to finish second in last two go-rounds at Penn National.
Race Summary	HE IS BAD adapted well to rating tactics and blew past the favorite to win going away when last seen two months ago. The same scenario could play out today for his new trainer. Bet to win and place.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race 2	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 2-5)/ Exacta 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $5,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $18,000 • Post: 1:07P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 8. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT ONE MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. COLONEL JUAN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * ALLEVARE: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CREATE AG AIN: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. COLONEL JUAN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Ratin g. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LOOK OUT LAMBO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	ALLEVARE	5/1	5/1
6	CREATE AGAIN	12/1	5/1
4	COLONEL JUAN	3/1	7/1
3	LOOK OUT LAMBO	8/5	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	ALLEVARE	2	5/1	Front-runner	94	91	87.8	70.0	64.0
6	CREATE AGAIN	6	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	92	88	77.8	72.6	64.6
4	COLONEL JUAN	4	3/1	Stalker	83	73	62.0	69.0	62.0
3	LOOK OUT LAMBO	3	8/5	Alternator/Trailer	83	72	69.6	74.6	70.6
1	JONNY QUIST	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	71	73.8	58.8	50.8
5	WIZARD SERRAT	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	71	59.0	56.8	47.8
7	LONG GRAY LINE	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	58	42.2	58.0	45.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Horseshoe IndianapolisPURCHASE

Horseshoe Indianapolis - Race 5	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 50 Cent Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $12,500 • 7 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $23,800 • Post: 4:14P
(RAIL AT 36 FEET). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (INDIANA BRED MAIDEN AND LIFETIME CONDITIONAL RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * LILY'S HOME: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest aver age Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. ISA LEI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HONEYTOWN: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. NOSHUGFORPOP: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
10	LILY'S HOME	4/1	4/1
13	ISA LEI	8/1	6/1
7	HONEYTOWN	12/1	7/1
11	NOSHUGFORPOP	5/2	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	TWO HEARTED	4	15/1	Front-runner	72	57	76.4	34.1	19.6
13	ISA LEI	13	8/1	Front-runner	72	62	68.8	59.4	45.9
3	STUPENDOUS	3	8/1	Front-runner	68	64	48.3	39.8	30.8
2	EASTERN SUNRISE	2	10/1	Front-runner	65	43	29.4	23.7	0.2
1	SPLIT DECISION	1	6/1	Stalker	75	72	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	HONEYTOWN	7	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	67	63	70.4	49.4	38.9
10	LILY'S HOME	10	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	68	52.1	58.8	51.3
9	RUN RUN RABBIT	9	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	59	57	43.7	50.5	32.0
5	LUCKY LESSON	5	10/1	Trailer	65	55	62.6	55.9	37.9
6	OH POLLYANNA	6	7/2	Trailer	74	67	0.0	0.0	0.0
12	DEE DEE B	12	6/1	Trailer	74	68	0.0	0.0	0.0
8	CATTY CRUISE	8	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	52	48	54.6	48.0	26.5
11	NOSHUGFORPOP	11	5/2	Alternator/Trailer	74	75	50.9	36.0	26.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:43pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#7 AMPERSAND (ML=9/2)
#9 WAHOOWA WAHOOWA (ML=10/1)


AMPERSAND - Ran last out against a better field at Laurel. The move down the class ladder should suit him well. WAHOOWA WAHOOWA - I think that this race's shorter trip should help this gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 REBEL RULER (ML=3/1), #6 ADY'S MUNNY (ML=7/2), #4 SOUPER CATCH (ML=4/1),

REBEL RULER - When scrutinizing today's class figure, he will have to register a much better speed figure than in the last race to battle in this dirt route. ADY'S MUNNY - This gelding registered a speed rating in his last affair which probably isn't good enough in today's race. SOUPER CATCH - This horse hasn't shown much in the last pair of races. Disappointing rating last time out at Penn National at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - AMPERSAND - Finished a disappointing sixth at Laurel on March 2nd. But that was in the slop. Expect much better in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 AMPERSAND on the win end if we get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $27500 Class Rating: 79

FOR REGISTERED OHIO FOALS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MARCH 8 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MUTINY 9/5
# 1 VISUAL MISSION 8/5
# 3 UNEEDTOCOMEHOME 6/1

MUTINY looks to be a quite good contender. Will almost certainly come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. Must be given consideration in this race if only for the very good speed fig put up in the last contest. He has posted solid figs under today's conditions and should fare well versus this group. VISUAL MISSION - Looks solid for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races lately. Could best this field based on the Equibase speed fig - 76 - of his last outing. UNEEDTOCOMEHOME - Looks very strong against this group and will most likely be one of the front-runners.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Speed Index Race - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 70

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WITH AN AVERAGE SPEED INDEX OF 90 AND UNDER. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MISS ORIENT EXPRESS 2/1
# 3 CHICKSDIGMYMONEYBAGS 8/5
# 4 SHAKEN 5/2

I've got to go with MISS ORIENT EXPRESS. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in lately. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this mare. It's a good signal that Broadstock is using Castillo on this one. CHICKSDIGMYMONEYBAGS - Is worth a close look and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (79 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Will probably go to the lead and should never look back. SHAKEN - Looks respectable for the conditions of this race today, showing solid figs in short races recently. This gelding has a good win percent in short races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Evangeline Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:30pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 57

Rating:

#4 STARSHIP NOLA (ML=9/2)


STARSHIP NOLA - That 49 fig this mare notched in her last affair tells me she's a key player today. Earnings per race is something that I believe can be a most important handicapping factor. This horse is ranked at the top of the list in this field. Dropping 5 pounds from last race. Could be a deciding factor today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #10 QUEENIE'S LEROY (ML=2/1), #2 WATCH THE COAST (ML=4/1), #1 MINE YOUR BIZ (ML=5/1),

QUEENIE'S LEROY - Awfully tough to wager on this steed when he hasn't been showing any signs of readiness of late. Notched a mediocre speed fig last time out in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race on April 6th. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure. WATCH THE COAST - Finished ninth last time out. Would have to get better to land in the top three in today's event. MINE YOUR BIZ - This entrant just hasn't looked ready of late. The speed figure in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this mount as a possibly overvalued contestant.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #4 STARSHIP NOLA to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 8
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass