Tuesday 5/14/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Thistledown - Race #4

#2 Pace	He has already had a lot of chances, but he at least has some finishing form in a race where a handful of them figure to be stopping by the top of the stretch. Think he gets home with some better punch second off the long break.
#3 Greers Ferry	He’s another who is getting short on excuses, but he has been in with some decent groups at Oaklawn and should get a big jump on the top choice.
#5 Outa Jail on Bail	Nothing from him in the Keeneland debut last month, but he probably has some upside while getting around two turns with a local crew. Wouldn’t shock, but I couldn’t get too enthusiastic about him.
Race Summary	Pace ran a good one off the layoff last out, and I think a mild move forward would make him one of the ones from off the pace here.

Thistledown - Race #5

#6 Mighty Les	Not sure the price is going to be much here, but I think he’s supposed to handle this group. He has some tactical pace in a race without much serious speed, and he caught a tough winner last out.
#1 Without Objection	He’s the other pace while rising off the $25,000 graduation, but I worry that he might take heat from the top choice the entire way. One of the two.
#2 Bourbon on Fire	Finisher steps up after finally graduating in a cheap Oaklawn spot, but he might be able to get past enough of these to snag a piece. Might need more pace help than he’s going to get.
Race Summary	Mighty Les was no match for a tough winner last time out, but he should get a great run of things while prompting the pace from the start.

Thistledown - Race #8

#6 Corner Office	There are a couple potential pace players lined up in this one, and he might find himself in a spot to land a finishing trip after spying and fading last time out. Some appeal.
#2 Powerful Moon	He proved a good fit with similar last time out and has some pace that could make him dangerous, but I worry he’s going to have some company.
#3 Keranos	He might be getting past some of these late while turning back, and he was only a few lengths off it against similar at Mahoning earlier this year.
Race Summary	Corner Office might be able to settle just a touch further off the pace today, and he’s capable of offering better than we saw last time out.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#4 WASHITA VALLEY (5-1)	Solid work tab, dam came out running for the same barn.
#1 PONZA (1-1)	Five seconds and a third in the past year, will be short price again.
#7 MEGA SHACK (3-1)	Dueled and finished 2-1/2 lengths behind Ponza in shorter sprint.
Race Summary	WASHITA VALLEY debuts off a 1:00-4/5 bullet gate work for Bravo, who strikes at a good percentage and is overdue for a first out winner. Her dam, Washita Princess, won in her MSW debut at Canterbury Park and followed with an allowance win for the same barn. Bet to win and place and play a 4-1 exacta.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6

#3 STOLEN KISSES (3-1)	Appeared ready to pounce on leaders in latest, lacked kick, likes Will Rogers.
#6 STORMY BISONETTE (5-2)	Had no breathers until she drew away powerfully in the stretch.
#7 ALL AFLUTTER (6-1)	Ran 1-2-3 in her last three starts at this level but was no match for ‘Stormy.’
Race Summary	STOLEN KISSES broke flat-footed, rushed up into good stalking position off a 3-way duel but lacked stretch kick as the favorite. She won three of her previous six starts at Will Rogers and expect a contending run today. Bet to win and place.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #7

#9 REBELENA (4-1)	Could take some catching with alert break, wears blinkers for first time.
#4 MIZ RITHYM (7-2)	Improved try at 73-1 behind 3-to-5 winner despite 4-wide trip.
#2 MYSTICAL CODE (3-1)	Chased odds-on winner in first one-mile test, topped ‘Rhythm.’
Race Summary	Hoping blinkers make a difference for Rebelena, who can maximize her speed if she breaks cleanly from post 9. She stretches out in distance for the first time and her dam won three races, all going a route of ground. Play a 9-ALL exacta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 6	$2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box $2 Pick 3 (races 6-8) $1 Wheel
Claiming $10,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $14,200 • Post: 9:05P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $8,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LATER DAYS: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SWEET QUEEN BEE: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CONTENT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and hor se has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
3	LATER DAYS	8/5	9/2
6	SWEET QUEEN BEE	5/2	9/2
1	CONTENT	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LATER DAYS	3	8/5	Front-runner	85	76	98.8	75.4	70.9
4	DIVINE MARTHA	4	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	79	77	85.6	55.6	46.6
6	SWEET QUEEN BEE	6	5/2	Stalker	85	77	80.8	81.0	76.0
2	GIRL BYE	2	9/2	Stalker	76	74	72.8	67.2	59.7
5	LIL BUT DELICIOUS	5	10/1	Trailer	69	69	55.5	65.0	56.5
1	CONTENT	1	5/1	Trailer	84	87	53.4	71.6	65.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for ThistledownPURCHASE

Thistledown - Race 4	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Pick 3 (Races 4-5-6) / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 4-8)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 79 • Purse: $26,400 • Post: 2:20P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. GUT INSTINCT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GREERS FERRY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUT INSTINCT: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PACE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
3	GREERS FERRY	8/5	3/1
6	GUT INSTINCT	4/1	9/2
2	PACE	7/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	GUT INSTINCT	6	4/1	Front-runner	78	70	62.9	63.4	55.4
3	GREERS FERRY	3	8/5	Alternator/Stalker	85	81	66.6	74.2	71.2
2	PACE	2	7/2	Trailer	76	73	63.6	65.6	59.1
7	RIESENBERG	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	79.8	62.0	55.5
1	CLOAK AND DAGGER	1	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	55.0	45.5	35.0
5	OUTA JAIL ON BAIL	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	54.0	54.0	47.0
4	MOBOT	4	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	48	40.6	44.8	30.8

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at FanDuel Horse Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23500 Class Rating: 66

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING 10,000 FOR HORSES THAT HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 TRUIST 7/2
# 5 WILDWOOD RUBEN 3/1
# 4 SPAN 10/1

I have to support TRUIST here. Could best this group based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 60 - of his last effort. Has run soundly when travelling a dirt sprint race. This field is much softer than the last one he faced. WILDWOOD RUBEN - Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This one ranks at the top in this field. Expect this equine to be close up at the finishing post versus these horses. SPAN - Will make a good outing versus this bunch. The trainer wheels this horse back soon to race again.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5 - Post: 3:03pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#7 MEGA SHACK (ML=3/1)
#6 JIMMY SLICE (ML=4/1)


MEGA SHACK - Good return on investment for this jockey and trainer tandem. This gelding is in fine physical condition. Ran third on Apr 23rd. It looks like Kimes had to learn all about this gelding on Apr 23rd when riding him for the initial time. Back on again today. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the vacation and should be fit. JIMMY SLICE - A first time starter with this conditioner. Caster wins a 27 pct of the time in these here situations. Caster seems to have this gelding primed for a big effort. His workout pattern is great.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PONZA (ML=1/1), #4 WASHITA VALLEY (ML=5/1),

PONZA - This racer has been a disappointment to the horseplayers as the favorite time and time again. This gelding is always close, but just doesn't win. Difficult to wager on him on the top end. WASHITA VALLEY - Don't think that this gelding has value at 5/1 this time around.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MEGA SHACK - This gelding is stepping up with each contest. He has shown a notable points increase in his speed ratings over his last two races.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 MEGA SHACK is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	7 with 6 with [2,4,5] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Parx Racing

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 69

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 MY MAN WOODY 2/1
# 3 CODE ENFORCER 4/1
# 6 I'M NOT A BABY 10/1

I've got to go with MY MAN WOODY. Should come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved speedily to the front end recently. Brown is trying to score with this horse by bringing him back so soon. Expect this equine to be right there at the finishing post versus these ponies. CODE ENFORCER - This gelding is a definite contender based on his earnings per start in dirt sprint races. Must be given a chance based on the formidable Equibase Speed Figure posted in the last contest. I'M NOT A BABY - Gallimore has shown excellent profits (+6 return on investment ) at this distance/surface. Gallimore is trying to prove victorious with this horse by bringing him back so soon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #6 - Post: 6:10pm - SO - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#10 ZOOM ERIN (ML=12/1)
#2 TRIPLE L'S CUTTER (ML=15/1)


ZOOM ERIN - Likes to go to the front end and the fact that today is a shorter trip should be advantageous. The latest speed fig of 87 is the top last race fig in the group. TRIPLE L'S CUTTER - This jockey and conditioner have a profitable ROI when they combine forces. Speed figures on the grass point to this horse as a legit contender. Has the best in the field for this dist-surf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 IRONIT (ML=3/1), #6 SUPER CINDY (ML=7/2), #8 MS. CAJUN QUEEN (ML=9/2),

IRONIT - I don't normally play a probable favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last three weeks. The pace situation just isn't too promising for this early speedster. Many other ponies would have to scratch to aid her chances. SUPER CINDY - Hasn't hit the board in any short distance races lately. Doubtful to see her doing it in today's event either. MS. CAJUN QUEEN - 9/2 odds isn't enough for this participant when scrutinizing the most recent outings. Registered a pedestrian speed fig last time out in a $20,000 Optional Claiming race on March 24th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ZOOM ERIN - Love the latest bullet work. Should perform well today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #10 ZOOM ERIN to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip