Monday 5/20/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:35 AM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

May 20, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card with the 0.50 Pick 5 starting in Race 5 and it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 rolls in Race 7, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7 (9:00 PM EST)

2-Sister Mary Maude (7/2)-Was a beaten 4/5 chalk at YR on 4/24. Then had an even mile in the first start of the season and came 2nd. Went over to the Big M and was stuck was post 9. Tried to wire the field but faded and finished 2nd again. Could be tough to beat with this post draw.
3-R Melina (5/2)-Raced twice at Yonkers, took a picture and then broke stride as a chalk in the NY SIRES Stakes Final last September. Did tune-up with 2 nice qualifiers at Southern Oaks and Pocono. Banked over $374K last year and this is a logical play at a short price.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

3-GDS Thunder GB (6-1)-Not sure the 6-year-old can wire this field but has won that way at this class back on March 25th. Last week, Just Enough Stuff (8) got a ton of respect as the chalk, and Joe B won by controlling the mile. I’m banking on this race not unfolding in the same way.
5-Hopnroll Heaven (4-1)-Makes his 3rd start in town and rallied nicely in the late going. Will respect connections, Jason Bartlett is back for his 3rd straight steer and a more aggression drive could be on the way.
6-Pound For Pound (7/2)-This 5-year-old has won 2 of the last 3 and knows how to beat this kind. Closed in 55.2 in last but was paced compromised. This tepid morning line choice looks like a main player.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Gone Crazee (3-1)-This filly comes off a gate to wire win at PcD and could be ready to take its 1st picture at YR. Should be forwardly placed and is a threat if minds its manners.
6-Shirin (7/2)-Jordan Stratton does the steering for the Jessica Okusco barn. This gal has won 3 straight and has won all 3 races this year. Two victories came at Nfld, and this outfit has posted 41% winners in their 22 starts in the past 30 days. Could be stalking and shouldn’t blush at the competition.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

4-Duval Street (5/2)-Bumps up after an impressive win in a quick 151.3 mile and now needs to show that wasn't a fluke. Got the top off the gate and didn't look back. Has the gate speed to land on the point and could be difficult to tackle.
5-The Real One (20-1)-This will be only the 7th start this year and is still winless. Will swing for a price in a race that could have some lively fractions. Pat Lachance could work a stalking trip and be in striking range around the last turn.
8-Karloo Bradley N (20-1)-Took the long way around and that trip didn't end well. Missed a start, thinking that might help and now drops to a more competitive level. Joe B takes the lines, and my take is he will leave and get a decent seat, and here is another who could be in position to snag the leader.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3/3,5,6/2,6/4,5,8
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:36 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#1 ITELLYOUTHEFACTS (9-5)	Winless long time, will have no excuse to not take this field on front end.
#5 LIL WOADIE (2-1)	Blew past the favorite while 4-wide on the turn to win off freshening.
#6 MR. BUTCH WOMBLE (6-1)	Had speed, good post and 10/2-1-3 mark in 2023 to summon.
Race Summary	ITELLYOUTHEFACTS is running out of time to pick up his second win; however, he has been competitive against Louisiana-bred rivals and can maximize his speed from the rail. He dueled on the final turn and held second at one mile at Fair Grounds three starts ago. Bet to win and place and play 1-5, 1-6 and 5-1 exactas.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#1 BACK BAYOU (7-2)	Seeks duplicate of maiden win for new barn, cuts back from 7F to 5-1/2F.
#2 OVERPAID (2-1)	Been lacking stretch kick against better, ran well when fresh at Fair Grounds.
#4 SON CARLOS (5-2)	Benefits most from projected lively pace, use underneath in gimmicks.
Race Summary	BACK BAYOU shrugged off a challenge by the favorite and pulled away to a career-best speed figure and a 7F maiden victory at Evangeline Downs. He posted near identical fractions and finished 2/5 of a second faster than a $15,000/nw3 claimer on the same card. Bet to win and place.

Louisiana Downs - Race #5

#1 STEAL ME OVER (3-1)	Back with own kind, draws rail, beat the odds-on favorite at FG in sprint.
#4 SMARTY’S ANGEL (6-1)	Showed enough at Oaklawn Park to warrant long look in here.
#7 TIZ SWEET CANDY (7-2)	Held third in improved last two starts at 20-1 and 56-1 odds.
Race Summary	STEAL ME OVER was over-matched in an allowance route race, but she was in range of the 2-to-5 winner for a half mile before fading. She out-kicked the 3-to-5 favorite to break her maiden at Fair Grounds in the race prior at 6F. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Mountaineer Park

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race 3	$2 Daily Double (Races 3-4) $2 Exacta $1 Box $1 Trifecta $.50 Box $1 Superfecta $.20 Box
Claiming $4,000 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $7,800 • Post: 7:50P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE APRIL 20 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000 (W V A BRED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. STRATEGIC is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CONRAD THE RED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. STRATEGIC: Horse ranks in the top thr ee in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. AMAZING JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMast er Power Rating.
6	CONRAD THE RED	3/5	7/2
7	STRATEGIC	12/1	4/1
3	AMAZING JUSTICE	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	STRATEGIC	7	12/1	Alternator/Front-runner	77	76	92.9	62.6	51.1
6	CONRAD THE RED	6	3/5	Stalker	86	79	77.6	81.4	79.4
2	ANTHONY'S ROCKET	2	6/1	Trailer	74	65	73.9	59.7	50.2
5	BIG WAY	5	6/1	Trailer	77	62	55.0	61.6	55.6
3	AMAZING JUSTICE	3	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	79	73	62.2	65.8	60.8
4	GET OFF MY CLOUD	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	71	63.5	55.1	47.1
1	BLACK BULL	1	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	64	43.8	45.0	31.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:40 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger LakesPURCHASE

Finger Lakes - Race 1	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 1-2) * PICK 4 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $26,500 • Post: 1:15P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. SHARPAZ is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SHARPAZ: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. VAUNTED: Horse ha s a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	SHARPAZ	5/2	5/2
4	VAUNTED	5/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	SHARPAZ	2	5/2	Front-runner	87	86	89.0	79.0	75.0
6	THE MIGHTY DON	6	5/1	Front-runner	70	71	76.6	62.2	54.2
4	VAUNTED	4	5/1	Front-runner	82	78	74.0	70.2	65.7
1	BENJI BROWN	1	7/2	Front-runner	67	61	73.0	58.6	47.6
5	ENTICING PROSPECT	5	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	63	67	45.6	63.4	56.9
3	CATALINA ROYALTY	3	3/1	Stalker	72	64	67.3	60.7	53.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #3 - Post: 1:34pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#5 FACE ABARRIO (ML=5/2)
#7 MIDNIGHT MOONSHINE (ML=4/1)
#6 BOOM BOOM KABOOM (ML=6/1)

FACE ABARRIO - I have to like this gelding's chances at the shorter distance. Entered a $14,000 Claiming race at Aqueduct in the last race and raced on a muddy track finishing sixth. Expect better right here. Taking a drop in class figure points from his April 12th race at Aqueduct. Based on that knowledge, I will give this horse the edge. MIDNIGHT MOONSHINE - I really like that last effort on April 24th at Parx Racing where he finished first. You always have to be on the prowl for money generating jockey/trainer tandems; we have it right here. Ranks uppermost in earnings per start. A solid performance right here can increase that total. BOOM BOOM KABOOM - I think this gelding is very sharp right now. I like the fact that Gallimore brings him back to a race so quickly. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. This gelding is in excellent physical condition right now. Finished second last time around the track and comes back soon.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 TIEMPO PERFECTO (ML=7/2), #3 HOMETOWN HERO (ML=9/2),

TIEMPO PERFECTO - He's in all probability going to get baked on the top end. HOMETOWN HERO - You figure that this horse is going to be first just because he's always close. Just doesn't win frequently.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - MIDNIGHT MOONSHINE - Coming off his last race with the top speed figure of 69 at Parx Racing. He is the colt to beat today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 FACE ABARRIO is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 56

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SHE'S MO FANCY 5/2
# 7 PNEUMA 3/1
# 1 MONEY IS TIME 12/1

SHE'S MO FANCY looks formidable to best this field. Might see a different horse here with the blinkers change. Could best this group based on the speed figure - 54 - of her last outing. Sound average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a key contender. PNEUMA - Looks quite good for the conditions of this race today, showing solid numbers in dirt route races as of late. Nieves will almost certainly be able to get this mare to break out quickly here. MONEY IS TIME - Asmussen has a solid winning percentage with horses running in dirt route races. Has to be given a shot as she drops to compete against this softer lot.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11300 Class Rating: 47

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 ZULLY BELLA 5/2
# 5 KINDNESS IS FREE 10/1
# 6 SISTER CODE 9/2

I lean toward ZULLY BELLA here. The drastic drop in company can only help this one this time out. Has a solid shot for this event if you like back class. KINDNESS IS FREE - Appears to be the type to be helped on Lasix here. Rivera has a sound 22 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. SISTER CODE - This filly is a key contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2024, 07:41 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race #4 - Post: 5:21pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,200 Class Rating: 49

Rating:

#4 KANTIRUN (ML=3/1)
#5 KATELYN'S MESS (ML=6/1)

KANTIRUN - This is the only real stalker in the race. Traditional angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a nice one here. Taking a drop in Equibase class figure points from her April 28th race at Oaklawn Park. Based on that data, I will give this horse the advantage. Look for this filly to run lots better in this event. Last race at Oaklawn Park finishing fifth in the mud is no indication of her true talent. KATELYN'S MESS - Last time around the track on April 21st was a good tune-up for today. Got decent betting action in that one, but finished second. Will do better in today's race. She finished in the place spot Apr 21st, but was well in front of the show horse. It is my opinion that fillys run better the second time they get Lasix. Schleis puts this filly on it for the 2nd time today, so give this one a look. You have to really like that recent race speed rating, 43, which is the top last race speed figure of this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SECRET CITY (ML=2/1), #6 READY FOR WINE (ML=5/2), #1 TIZ A STRATEGY (ML=4/1),

SECRET CITY - 2/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any mount in a sprint of 5 1/2 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint event of late. This pony hasn't been near the winner at the finish line lately. Substandard speed rating last out at Oaklawn Park at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this pony will improve too much in today's race. READY FOR WINE - Should take this one off your list of contenders with the lack of early speed in that last route event. In any race of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to play a contender that has been sharp in sprint races of late. TIZ A STRATEGY - If you keep playing these kind of 'hanger' types, you're going to be dissatisfied most of the time. When examining today's class figure, she will have to register a much better speed rating than last race out to be competitive in this dirt sprint.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KATELYN'S MESS - The 'hood' on and you can't bet wrong. This horse should be long gone.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 KANTIRUN is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	4 with 5 with [1,2,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip