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686 San Diego St. -3.0 (-120) BetUS vs 685 St. Mary's (Cal.)
Analysis: ***** NIT TOURNAMENT 5* GAME of the YEAR *****
(BUY the 1/2 PT down to -3)
As soon as St Mary's took care of Davidson, I knew I'd be looking to back San Diego St in their next one...if of course the number was offering Value...The reason for that is simple, SDSt has been sitting back awaiting the Winner, and getting a chance to rest up and practice for 4 days...while St Mary's had to play Davidson on Monday Night...
More importantly, the heart and soul of St Mary's, Mills was definitely looking to play his best game against the well known Curry...and he didn't disappoint...
Now though, they have to face a team who they already beat during the season...on a short turn around...And I really feel that gives SD St a significant Edge
Also, when you take a close look at that 1st Match-up between the 2, you will notice that SD St was a 3pt Fav...who lost the game SU by 3...But dig a little deeper and you will notice that SD St played terrible in that December meeting...Shooting only 33% from the FT LINE...Yes, I said 33%...so at 60% they could have very easily gotten the Win...
Finally, SD St is as UNDER-VALUED of a team as you will find this late in the Season...and the "Public Perception" is actually that St Mary's is the Better Team...And they couldn't be more Wrong...
Not only do I have SDSt Ranked Higher than them in my PR...making them a 4Pt Fav in this match-up...But add to that the fact they have played the Tougher Schedule...are just as mature...and Playing at Home...and that "True Number" is more like -7.5/-8...
Also, LVSC's own Ken White admitted that no team is playing better than SD St is right now...and stated that this line could have easily been sent out much higher due to all the surrounding circumstances...But with the mis-leading loss early in the season to St Mary's...and the fact the Public is going to back them over SD St even at a Pick...There was no need to go higher than what they sent out...
So Bottom Line, we have a situation that really favors the HOME team...and a HUGE EDGE on the Line...Now they just need to go out and play to their capabilities, and no need to play beyond...And we should be able to get the Money...and Win our NIT 5* GOY with SAN DIEGO ST Tonight...VR
Wed, 03/25/09 - 8:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Money Line Double-Dime Bet
678 ORL (-130) SportBet vs 677 BOS
Analysis: ** NBA 2* (5.5PT) BONUS TEASER PLAY of the DAY **
SIXERS -4.5 & MAGIC +2...(2*)
Although these TEASERS don't get GRADED for BetLikeAPro...Since I'm betting it for myself, I decided that I would pass it along, VR...
Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Wednesday
NCAA Basketball
100* Play Kentucky (+3) over Notre Dame (NCAA)
Kentucky is 7-1 ATS in road games when playing their 2nd game in 8 days
Kentucky is 4-0 SU & ATS vs. Notre Dame since 1997
Kentucky is 3-0 ATS coming off a win by 3 points or less
100* Play St. Mary’s (+3) over San Diego State (NCAA)
St. Mary’s is 4-1 SU & ATS vs. San Diego State
St. Mary’s is 5-1 SU & ATS in road games when the line is +3 to -3
St. Mary’s is 13-2 SU coming off an OVER the total
100* Play UTEP (+1) over Richmond (NCAA)
UTEP is 4-0 SU & ATS in road games when the total is between 140 and 149.5
UTEP is 4-1 SU & ATS over the last 5 games
UTEP is 10-3 ATS in non-conference games this season
UTEP is 7-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games
ANALYSIS: The Irish have now played eight games in a row under the total and overall have not played high scoring games at home this season, as their 2-9 O/U record will show. The defense for the Irish has been pretty good down the stretch here especially at home. In the last seven home games Irish opponents are only shooting 39.7% from the field and averaging 63.3 ppg. Even though the Irish are on a nice winning streak the offensive efficiency has dropped, in the last eight games they have only surpassed an offensive efficiency of 1.00 in one game. The Wildcat defense has been pretty strong all season. Overall they are holding opponents to 38.7% from the field and have held the last five opponents to an offensive efficiency less than 1.00. The Wildcats at times seem to stagnate on offense and run the shot clock down. Despite playing some up-tempo opponents the games have not been that fast paced. It’s been quite a while since each of these teams played a game with the total scoring exceeding 135 points. Each of these teams is winning with defense and with a trip to the Garden at stake I think the team that plays the best defense will win this one.
New orleans catches denver in their second road game after they played a tight one in phoenix earlier this week . Great line value because of denvers recent success, but new orleans is playing their best ball of the year and looking to move into a tie with denver for the 4th seed in the west . Stan has them winning by 9-11 points
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