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This should be a fantastic featured fight on the prelims leading us into the main card of UFC 302. Both fighters are kickboxers whom have displayed solid striking with knockout power. Let's first address the elephant in the room… Cesar Almeida's kickboxing decision win over Alex Pereira. As impressive as that is and a talking point for those backing Almeida, that fight was 10 years ago. Yes, a decade ago and over their 3 kickboxing bouts Pereira won 2 of them. So let's settle down a little on that storyline. In 2023 Cesar had scheduled MMA bouts canceled against the likes of Michael Cora, who's currently supporting a 5-6 record and Kevem Felipe with an 8-7 record. While Roman Kopylov was on a 4 fight winning streak in the UFC with all wins coming by knockout. Even though Roman wasn't fighting the highest level of competition in the promotion, he was at least sparking these guys out inside the distance. The only 2 notable fights for Almeida was his Dana White Contender Series fight and his UFC debut. Neither were impressive at all. On DWCS, Cesar beat Lucas Fernando whom then signed with LFA losing his next bout. After that Cesar defeated a one dimensional fighter in Dylan Budka who held Cesar up against the fence for literally a round and a half while landing only 1 strike over that span, than gassed himself out completely by middle of round 2 allowing Cesar to finish him. That won't be the case on Saturday night. First off the experience level in MMA is a wide gap with Cesar only having 5 fights while Kopylov has 3 times the cage experience with 15 pro fights. I understand Almeida's has plenty of kickboxing fights… but going from Dana White's Contender Series to another Apex bout to now featured prelim just before pay per view starts is a large step up. Stylistically speaking, no doubt both men will seek to work at range on the feet utilizing their high level kickboxing arsenal. I do believe Roman will mix it up keeping Cesar off balance with takedown attempts. Even if he isn't successful, those attempts should force Cesar into uncomfortable positions on the feet. Almeida can stuff takedowns when his back is up against the fence, but has displayed an inability to defend in center of cage. In his last 2 fights he was taken down 6 times and is a vulnerability I expect Kopylov to make attempts exposing. Training with Dagestani wrestlers rounding off his skill set will add level changes into his game. He doesn't shoot many takedowns but in this situation it would be very advantageous of him to time takedowns behind some of Cesar's kicks. I was actually impressed with Roman's grappling against Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez in his most recent bout. Fluffy has extremely high level BJJ and thought he displayed improvements and expecting an even better version of him Saturday night. Lastly, I find it a little suspect that Cesar's making the jump from kickboxing to MMA now and oddly sprinkled MMA bouts in 2016, 2021 and now Not fully committed to crafting his MMA skills while still competing in kickboxing is a red flag. Now with only 5 pro fights and on the wrong side of 35 now 36 years old makes me feel like this is a last ditch effort to fight in the octogen. Give me Roman in this spot to get the job done!
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