Sunday 6/2/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:36 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/2/24

June 2, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, June 2, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 2-Ketonia (Fr); 5-O K Rose
Backups/savers: 1-Pace Lane.

Forecast: Ketonia (Fr) stretches out after a series of turf sprints, including a good runner-up at this level last time out that produced a career top speed figure. Based on her steady, one-paced running style, the French-bred filly shouldn’t be any less effective around two turns, so in a race that is likely to be slowly run early the P. D’Amato-trained sophomore projects to settle in the second flight and have every chance from there. O K Rose raced in a bit of traffic to the head of the lane, got clear, and closed with interest when third over this course and distance at this level last month. She’s a little shy on numbers but retains J. Hernandez and really won’t have to improve much to be in the thick of things close home.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: Bella Renella; 3-Dancing Dana
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Bella Renella was life-and-death to beat $16,000 sellers at 50 cents on the dollars two weeks ago in her first outing since February and returns on the two level class drop for low profile connections who apparently want to unload her. If the seven year old mare has one good one left (a huge if) she can win again but at 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower she offers no wagering value due in no small part to her suspect current condition. Dancing Dana has a similar patten. Away for nine weeks, she settled in the second flight before producing enough of a late kick to win at this level last month but isn’t being raised in class, not exactly a sign of confidence. However, in a five runner affair the C. Lewis-trained daughter of Clubhouse Ride is a major player in a race that probably should be left alone.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Lisa’s Nonno
Backups/savers: 6-Diamonds Danzing.

Forecast: Lisa’s Nonno missed by a head with a career top performance at this level over this track and distance last time out and a similar performance today should be sufficient in this allowance optional claiming miler The M. Glatt-trained daughter of Jimmy Creed is a late-developing type that has finished in the frame in four of five Santa Anita outings and employs a stalking style that should keep her free and clear of traffic. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and is likely to go a bit lower as a logical top pick.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:39 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Vegas Burner; 6-Queen’s Code
Backups/savers: 5-Lewis Bere (Fr).

Forecast: 1-Vegas Burner returns to a sprint and switches to grass in his second start since being claimed out of a maiden $50,000 win by S. Knapp, who wisely shortens him up in this starter optional seller than came up somewhat lackluster. A repeat of his highly rated score two runs back should be sufficient. Queen’s Code has finished first or second in five of seven career outings over the local lawn and though never particularly generous under pressure he’ll likely be prominent throughout in a race that projects to offer moderate splits. This will be his third start off a layoff, and it could produce a carer top performance.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Catmansue; 7-California Bay
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Catmansue stretches out for the first time in this first level allowance state-bred affair and has the pedigree to improve around two turns for a stable that excels with the sprint-to-route angle. With the addition of blinkers and the return to dirt (quite possibly his preferred surface), the son of Cat Burglar seems certain to employ gate-to-wire tactics, and if he can shake loose early he may never look back. Based on speed figures, his J. Mullins-trained stablemate California Bay is the one to fear most. Primarily a grass specialist but third in his most recent two races (both on dirt), the late-running son of California Chrome is a one-paced grinder but has figures that can win and therefore is a “must” use in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:43 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: Charm Your World; 7-Just Nails.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Though she didn’t earn much of a number when winning her debut at 27-1 in late April over this course and distance, Charm Your World was visually quite pleasing in victory and returns in an allowance event that could easily be within her capabilities. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, this full sister to Santa Anita Derby-G1 winner Rock Your World appears to have a touch of quality and catches a field with plenty of zip that should complement her late-running style. Just Nails is solid on numbers and projects to be on or near the lead, though she’ll have a reasonable chance, too, if held up early and allowed to run late. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Anywho; 6-Richi (Chi)
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Anywho returns from Keeneland, where she won her seasonal debut quite impressively over a sloppy track against a stakes quality field that indicates she is at least as good if not better than she was last year. Clearly most effective around one turn, the J. Sadler-trained four-year-old projects to settle just behind the leaders and then kick home when given her cue. Fast enough on numbers to win today’s renewal of the Desert Stormer S. for fillies and mares, the daughter of Bolt d’Oro should offer good wagering value at or near her morning line of 5/2. The B. Baffert-trained South American invader Richi (Chi) was a middle distance/router in graded stakes events in Chile, so this race might be nothing more than a prep affair to get her feet wet in her first outing since December. It’ll be interesting to see how she performs at six furlongs as her recent gate drill indicates she has plenty of speed and quality.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:47 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: 4-Moonlight Tryst ; 1-Smiling Forever
Backups/savers: 1-Smiling Forever.

Forecast: Moonlight Tryst ran too well to lose in her debut last month, finding her best stride late to close a big gap before just running out of ground in a main tack dash for older maiden fillies and mares. She switches go grass (bred for it), gets an extra half furlong to work with, and adds blinkers, so we’re expecting the daughter of American Pharoah to step forward in a big way for an outfit that has solid stats with the second time starter angle. At 5/2 on the morning line, the D. Hofmans-trained four-year-old is a win play and rolling exotic single.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:36 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 2, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a big 16-race card set to begin the week. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

4-One Last Laugh (6-1)-Cashes checks frequently but winning doesn't happen regularly. Gets a big post edge on the program choice and could be no worse than in the pocket after the wings fold. Should be there at the wire and may finally take its 1st picture since 3-24.
8-Birthday (2-1)-Gets handicapped with outside posts and has shown the ability to win when dealt that hand. There isn't a lot of gate speed in this filed, could get the top and not look back.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

3-The Longest Yard (8/5)-Mohawk shipper has 1.50 and change speed on the 7/8's oval up North. Last raced on 5-25 so is put right in and may need a race to acclimate. Would like to fade, hasn't hit the board in 2 tries here. But has good gate speed and if handles the turns could land on the point and be difficult to tackle.
4-Beach Forecast (10-1)-Will look for a price in a race with a big chalk who may need a race on the oval. The Ciocca barn has been clicking and this 4-year-old drops to a more competitive level. Could land near the top of the stack and benefit from an efficient trip at a juicy price.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

1-Not Today (4-1)-This is another Ciocca entry who could be in-line for a ground saving trip. Finished a nice 2nd from the 2nd tier in last versus this kind. Looks like a pocket ride is a good possibility.
3-Tremendous Play (9-1)-Gets needed class relief and draws inside which shouldn't hurt chances. Could get a cozy trip and at the morning line price is worth a swing.
6-Coop A Loop (9/5)-Has won at this level but will be a short price and needs the right trip to cash the top check. Ronnie Wrenn has the gate speed to get the top, and if that happens without much strain it could be picture time for the 6th time in 16 races.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

4-Son of Sona (25-1)-This isn't an easy race to read and wanted to have someone with a decent draw on the ticket. Keith Kash Jr needs to provide a sharp steer but has won recently at this level while most have not. Will use at this price and fade #7 the 2-1 chalk who steps up off 2 straight wins.
8-Don't Take My Keys (9/2)-This veteran got on the engine and made every call a winning one. This won't be as easy, but the 6-year-old finds ways to win. Has won 12 of 52 at Nfld and recent form has been too good to leave off the ticket.
9-Shamrock (6-1)-Will look for Billy Davis Jr to follow #2 off the gate and then land in a good seat. Needs some luck but has proven to be competitive versus this kind and has a pilot who can provide a winning trip from the 2nd tier.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

4,8/3,4/1,3,6/4,8,9
Total Bet=$36
`

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:37 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #3

#12 Miyako	She ran evenly in the debut try at Keeneland, but she might make some more sense on the move to the turf, and she's meeting a group with a lot of pace-and-fade lines on the page. Blinkers might keep her a bit more interested early.
#3 May May Strong	She's capable of something better than she showed at Keeneland last out, and the move to turf might help her show it. Mild worry that she's meeting other pace, but I wouldn't be surprised to see her like this trip.
#1 Determined Candy	Wouldn't be any surprise to see her land this after a useful Laurel debut, but I really worry about her becoming too short a price with something to prove while trying the locals over new footing.
Race Summary	Miyako has some appeal in this second start while trying turf, as I think she'll be in a spot to get past some of these late in a race with the potential for unreliable pace. Would feel decent about being two deep here.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#6 Immensitude	She probably isn't far off things here if she has any upside in the second stateside start off the layoff, and her tactical pace should keep her in a great spot.
#4 Be My Sunshine	She might be the right midrange price player to sweeten things up, as she comes out of a deceptively good effort last time out and might find a decent spying spot. Interesting.
#7 Delahaye	She's an obvious player in here, but she's likely to get bet and just got beat a similar margin by the same runner who handled the top choice last out. Underlay today?
Race Summary	Immensitude seems competitive if she holds form from a tough allowance spot last out, but there might still be some upside to get her home from a perfect spot tracking the pace. Be My Sunshine is intriguing at a midrange price.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#7 Will Take It	Wonder if he has a chance to spring a mild upset with these while stepping up off the graduation run. His recent form is interesting enough once you forgive the Arkansas Derby try.
#3 Dragoon Guard	He's probably supposed to win this off the super sharp run last time out, and he should be in another perfect pressing spot. Bet there is still more here.
#9 Gun Party	He caught a couple tough horses in his first two starts, and he graduated here in the Derby Day finale a few weeks ago. Something similar to that solid score would keep him in the picture.
Race Summary	Will Take It may offer an OK price in after dropping back in to graduate with special weight company last out. This is a more reasonable spot to try winners again, and the recent form fits.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:37 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lone Star Park

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race 5	Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $.50 Pick 5 (Races 5-6-7-8-9)
Claiming $7,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 85 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 3:27P
(PLUS UP TO $2,700 OPEN ATB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500. TEXAS BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PLANTERS PUNCH is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * AMERICAN ICON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. IOWA HAWKEYE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PLANTERS PUNCH: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). Today is a sprint an d the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. JOHNNY APPLESEED: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	AMERICAN ICON	5/2	4/1
6	IOWA HAWKEYE	9/5	4/1
2	PLANTERS PUNCH	10/1	7/1
1	JOHNNY APPLESEED	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PLANTERS PUNCH	2	10/1	Front-runner	66	69	70.4	63.2	53.2
3	RACE FOR DOUGH	3	15/1	Stalker	62	53	45.6	37.0	23.0
5	AMERICAN ICON	5	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	83	75	49.4	76.8	73.3
6	IOWA HAWKEYE	6	9/5	Trailer	79	81	62.3	76.2	71.7
1	JOHNNY APPLESEED	1	6/1	Trailer	72	71	49.8	69.2	61.2
4	MESSAGE DISCIPLINE	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	76	71	66.0	63.2	57.2
7	RU MOR STARTER	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	53	63	17.1	59.7	50.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:38 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Santa Anita ParkPURCHASE

Santa Anita Park - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double $0.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5 Leg 1 of the $1 Golden Hour Pick 4
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 101 • Purse: $100,000 • Post: 4:15P
DESERT STORMER S. - FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH IF MADE ON OR BEFORE THURSDAY, MAY 23, 2024, CLOSED WITH 8 OR BY SUPPLEMENTARY NOMINATION OF $2,000 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY. $750 TO ENTER AND AN ADDITIONAL $750 TO START WITH 100,000 GUARANTEED OF WHICH $60,000 TO THE WINNER, $20,000 TO SECOND, $12,000 TO THIRD, $6,000 TO FOURTH AND $2,000 TO FIFTH. 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES ALLOWED 2 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 4 LBS. A TROPHY WILL BE PRESENTED TO THE WINNING OWNER.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PRINCESS OF TIME is the Lone Front-runner of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * ANYWHO: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(s print or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RICHI (CHI): Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's win p ercentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CHISMOSA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. OUTSIDE THE LAW: Today is a sprint an d this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	ANYWHO	5/2	5/1
6	RICHI (CHI)	2/1	5/1
1	CHISMOSA	4/1	6/1
2	OUTSIDE THE LAW	20/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	PRINCESS OF TIME	7	8/1	Front-runner	87	88	79.3	84.6	73.6
2	OUTSIDE THE LAW	2	20/1	Stalker	94	91	96.2	83.0	73.0
4	ANYWHO	4	5/2	Stalker	96	99	86.0	95.2	91.2
3	TOM'S REGRET	3	5/1	Stalker	95	92	83.1	82.1	73.1
1	CHISMOSA	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	103	100	66.8	86.2	82.2
5	DELITEFULL HART	5	5/1	Trailer	91	85	54.8	83.1	73.6

Unknown Running Style: RICHI (CHI) (2/1) [Jockey: Hernandez Juan J - Trainer: Baffert Bob].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Energy Downs 307 Racing - Race #6 - Post: 3:35pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#6 JUSTIN SPEIGHT (ML=6/1)
#1 CARRIZO SPRINGS (ML=10/1)

JUSTIN SPEIGHT - When Cardoso and Hibdon team up on animals the return on investment has been terrific at +85. Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter trip should be better for him. Ran in the last race against a tougher field at Fonner Park. The move down in class ranks should suit him well. CARRIZO SPRINGS - He'll be laying in stalking position, right behind the early speed. Ran last race out against a high class rated field at Miles City. The move down the class scale should suit him well. This thoroughbred has increased his speed ratings from a fig of 22 to 46 to 55 in a row. I usually like playing sprint horses who are 3-4 races into a comeback.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 OPTIMAL (ML=5/2), #8 FASCINATED (ML=3/1), #2 TOP STAR (ML=5/1),

OPTIMAL - You should normally gamble against favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last three weeks. FASCINATED - Notched a substandard speed rating in the last race in a $5,000 Optional Claiming race on May 19th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating. TOP STAR - I find it hard to play any entrant in a short distance race if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last 60 days. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will make a winning move in today's event. That last speed fig was somewhat easily forgotten when compared with today's class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 JUSTIN SPEIGHT on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $250000 Class Rating: 106

OLD FORESTER MINT JULEP S. - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 EXCELLENT QUESTION 15/1
# 4 BE MY SUNSHINE 8/1
# 6 IMMENSITUDE (FR) 4/1

EXCELLENT QUESTION looks to be a formidable contender especially at a long price. With Ortiz getting the mount, watch out for this pony. This pick will feel the med change - now going off Lasix today. This conditioner has done soundly as of late with entries racing at this distance and surface. BE MY SUNSHINE - With a reliable jockey who has won at a respectable 18 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. IMMENSITUDE (FR) - Is worth serious consideration and may be a bet - strong speed figs (104 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. Must be carefully examined here on the basis of the figures in the speed section alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:38 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Equibase Special

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - SO - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $49000 Class Rating: 85

GP - R2 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $50,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING OR CLAIMING PRICE $50,000. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (IF DEEMED

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MO CALIENTE 6/1
# 4 MAGIC HEART 9/5
# 3 EHSAAN 8/1

I give the nod to MO CALIENTE here. Looks quite good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in turf route races recently. Recently Vasquez has been hot which may give the edge to this gelding. He has been running very well and the speed figures are among the most competitive in this field. MAGIC HEART - Could best this field here, showing competitive figures of late. Had one of the best Equibase speed figs of this group in his last competition. EHSAAN - Has recorded sound Equibase speed figs in turf route races in the past. He has a decent distance/surface win record - 2 for 5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-02-2024, 10:38 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 2:08pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,700 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#2 FLAWLESS RULER (ML=9/2)

FLAWLESS RULER - Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this campaigner is meeting an easier group than in the last race at Woodbine. You have to be keen on that last race speed fig, 85, which is the best last race speed rating of this field.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 SIR SAMUEL (ML=2/1), #5 ARRIVISTE (ML=3/1), #3 ROYAL HUDSON (ML=7/2),

SIR SAMUEL - The fifth place finish in the last race was not the best. If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned often. ARRIVISTE - This entrant hasn't shown much life in the last two affairs. The speed figs are going downward. I'm not wagering on this steed off of that trend. Quite unimpressive speed figure last out at Woodbine at 1 1/16 miles. Don't believe this less than sharp equine will improve too much in today's event. ROYAL HUDSON - This bunch is a whole lot tougher than the ones he met in the last event. Will probably be instructed to pay some respect to his elders today.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - FLAWLESS RULER - The TrackMaster Power Rating tells me that this thoroughbred looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm investing.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 FLAWLESS RULER is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass