Tuesday 6/4/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Presque Isle Downs - Race #5

#5 Lady Hamilton	Her pace probably makes her a handful while getting back over synthetic footing, as there isn't a ton of other serious speed to bother her early. Better stuff would do.
#3 Cidstayinurlaine	She only beat one home last out in what was not a promising debut over the local footing, but I think she might be in line for a perfect trip pressing the top choice. Capable of better today?
#7 She's a Bossy Girl	She's in good form and has some solid past running lines over the surface here, and I'm guessing she'll end up spying the top pair early on. In the mix.
Race Summary	Lady Hamilton and Cidstayinurlaine seem like the right pair to me, but I think 'Hamilton's pace is a touch more committed, and she's not still a question mark over the local surface.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#8 Elle's Dancer	Wondering if the synthetic surface is the key for her after the dull run at Horseshoe Indianapolis, but she showed the kind of pace in her career debut at Turfway to think she might find a good attacking trip from out here today. Interesting enough on the surface switch.
#3 St. Susan	Not totally sure what to think of this one turning back for the local debut, but the last race looks competitive with this group if she's able to bring something similar going short.
#2 Oh My Mia	She's a threat with her best, but the form can be hit or miss, and she hasn't been finishing her recent races with a whole lot of punch. I don't know...especially if the price gets short.
Race Summary	Elle's Dancer has some appeal from the outside draw -- I'd love to see her flash some prompting pace from the outside while likely enjoying the surface switch.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #7

#6 Gavel	Think he's going to be tough with these while trying synthetic footing for the first time, and he gets a great draw for his versatile early pace. In the mix throughout -- think he'll like it here for a barn that has known their way around synthetic footing better than almost anyone around.
#4 Disco Cents	Wonder if he might be the price intrigue while stepping up off the cheap score here last time around, but I like that he was getting a class hike off the bench and stayed well after showing sharp pace. Could get brave if he doesn't take too much heat.
#2 Twilight Dancer	Tactical pace should enjoy the cutback, but I worry that he might be overbet in what feels like a competitive race. One of the ones if he handles the new footing.
Race Summary	Gavel and Disco Cents should both be prominent early, but I think the former is likely to get a perfect first-jump trip today with a chance to score right back.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Parx - Race #1

#7 BLUEY (5-2)	Win and a near miss in short sprints at the $7,500 level, draws outside.
#1 CONNECTING (8-1)	Earned his top speed figure, ended 2-year winless drought at 7F.
#4 KATIE’S NOTION (8-5)	Made brief, wide bid into fast pace but flattened out as the favorite.
Race Summary	BLUEY rallied to miss by a neck and win going away in his two short sprint tries for this barn. He rallied inside to best two deep closers when he won at this level. Bet to win and place and play a 1,7/1,4,7/ALL trifecta.

Parx - Race #2

#2 DREAM KNIGHT (6-1)	Can use his speed well with alert break, has the right pilot to do it.
#4 SMOKIN HOLIDAY (5-2)	Steps up in class off a runaway front-end victory in a six-horse field.
#7 COLES CONUNDRUM (4-1)	Can stalk and pounce for a share as light weight in the field.
Race Summary	DREAM KNIGHT can be excused for hitting the gate last out, but he looms a front-end threat in this spot with Paco aboard for the first time. He chased a fast 7F pace two starts back, finishing behind odds-on winner Prince Marco and recent come-from-behind victor Mean Tweets. He exits a top barn but is worth a win and place bet nonetheless. Also play 2-4 and 2-7 exactas.

Parx - Race #3

#1 SUENO PROFUNDO (8-1)	Price shot with ideal set-up on surface switch for new connections.
#6 MY MAN WOODY (7-2)	Romped her three starts back, faltered in last pair, enters new barn.
#2 NUEDORF (9-5)	Three-time winning 3yo meets mostly nw/2 types in repeat attempt.
Race Summary	Florida shipper SUENO PROFUNDO should get ample pace flow to launch a contending rally at a tempting price in his first U.S. start on conventional dirt. He chased a rapid pace but didn’t lose ground two starts back, then raced evenly while 4-wide in a follow-up try. Bet to win and place.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race 2	Daily Double / Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) / .20 Pick 6 Jackpot
Claiming $5,000 • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $14,500 • Post: 4:30P
(INCLUDES UP TO $4,000 LAVPF) FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 4, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. FAST VERDICT is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FAST VERDICT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. CHARCO: Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SPARKIN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or f ourth start after a layoff.
2	FAST VERDICT	6/1	7/2
1	CHARCO	8/5	5/1
4	SPARKIN	9/2	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CHARCO	1	8/5	Front-runner	86	85	80.8	63.2	59.2
5	TRIPPER JOHN	5	2/1	Front-runner	80	58	79.2	59.8	53.3
4	SPARKIN	4	9/2	Front-runner	76	78	75.2	62.8	56.8
2	FAST VERDICT	2	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	93	83	52.6	63.7	60.2
3	DONNA'S COURT	3	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	64	45.2	52.8	43.3

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Assiniboia DownsPURCHASE

Assiniboia Downs - Race 5	.20 PICK 3 (Races 5-6-7) / .20 SUPERFECTA / .20 TRIACTOR / EXACTOR
Stakes • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 83 • Purse: $24,000 • Post: 9:15P
TABOGA OVERNIGHT S. - FILLIES AND MARES, 3-YEAR-OLDS & UPWARD. WEIGHT, 3-YEAR-OLDS, 117 LBS. OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $14.400 ONCE IN OTHER MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR RESTRICTED IN 2024 ALLOWED 5 LBS. NO NOMINATION FEE - $100 TO ENTER - $100 TO START.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * DAMN THE TORPEDOES: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SPITTEN KITTEN: H orse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. HALFINTHEWRAPPER: Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. SOARING LADY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/sur face (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MELISANDRE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	DAMN THE TORPEDOES	3/1	5/1
2	SPITTEN KITTEN	4/1	6/1
7	HALFINTHEWRAPPER	2/1	7/1
1	SOARING LADY	15/1	8/1
3	MELISANDRE	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	HALFINTHEWRAPPER	7	2/1	Front-runner	83	80	80.4	68.4	58.4
2	SPITTEN KITTEN	2	4/1	Front-runner	75	89	70.2	78.2	67.2
3	MELISANDRE	3	5/1	Stalker	83	74	61.6	81.0	75.0
8	DAMN THE TORPEDOES	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	89	69.0	74.2	69.2
5	ORANGE THEORY	5	20/1	Alternator/Stalker	90	88	42.4	71.4	61.9
1	SOARING LADY	1	15/1	Trailer	84	84	48.0	78.8	70.8
4	STORMIEIS BLUE	4	10/1	Trailer	86	80	40.5	76.4	69.9
6	SPUN LINE	6	12/1	Trailer	90	87	32.1	68.9	55.4

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $6,250 OR LESS IN 2023 - 2024 OR CLAIMING PRICE $13,500. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $13,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 SHE'S A BOSSY GIRL 3/1
# 3 CIDSTAYINURLAINE 6/1
# 6 SERENADE A KITTEN 5/1

SHE'S A BOSSY GIRL has a competitive shot to take this race. Have to think this racer will make a good impression again this time out. Reason to like this mare as she has in the saddle one of the best jocks using winning percentages over the last month. Should come out sharp - I have liked the way this mare has moved quickly to the lead recently. CIDSTAYINURLAINE - Sharp gains over time for this rider and handler duo. Has been running solidly lately and should be up near the lead early on. SERENADE A KITTEN - Overall the speed figs of this pony look competitive in this race. Love when any equine makes a quick reversal of fortune.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #3 - Post: 6:43pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#6 SIR SAHIB (ML=8/1)
#3 CRAZY KATER (ML=5/1)
#4 CURLINGTON (ML=7/2)
#8 RECONVENE (ML=8/1)


SIR SAHIB - In this race here, this pony has clearly shown signs that he likes the turf. His speed figs are the highest in the field for this dist-surf. Running on the turf today, you should review a horse's class. This one has the top number in the bunch. He has the highest earnings per race entered. Take a good look at this horse. Lets try to beat the morning-line choices with this gelding. Just missed last out, but ran a respectable race. CRAZY KATER - Last time, was entered in a race at Laurel in a race with a class figure of 89. Dropping significantly in Equibase class figure this time around puts him in a solid position right here. This gelding runs very well off of a layoff. Last time out, ran the last quarter in less than 25 ticks. An indication he can close well, and should be right there at the end this time around. CURLINGTON - Ran last out against a better field at Penn National. The move down the class scale should suit him well. This rider/conditioner duo has been producing a very beneficial ROI, right at +39. Everybody's got their favorite tracks, but if you ask this horse, I think his answer would be Penn National. Have to make this gelding a win candidate; he comes off a good race on May 16th. RECONVENE - This trainer brings horses to the grass ready to go, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 RESTORED ORDER (ML=5/2), #11 COPPERHEAD CREEK (ML=6/1), #2 WICKED MAD (ML=8/1),

RESTORED ORDER - May 11th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. This gelding finished out of the money on April 12th and wasn't close in the last race either. COPPERHEAD CREEK - Earned a mediocre speed rating last time out in a non-classified race race on May 16th. Unlikely to see an improved performance off of that fig. WICKED MAD - Didn't hit the board on Sep 24th at Pimlico. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 SIR SAHIB to win if you can get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4,8] with [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4,8] with [3,4,8] with [3,4,8] Total Cost: $6

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $49680 Class Rating: 102

IND - R7 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, RESTRICTED OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 4 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 PERUVIAN LUCKY 20/1
# 2 MIDNIGHT WEST 5/1
# 12 KING ICE 9/2

PERUVIAN LUCKY is my selection and the potential return justifies the precarious nature of the long odds. MIDNIGHT WEST - Will probably go to the front end and might never look back. KING ICE - Is a solid choice - given the 102 speed figure from his most recent race.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,400 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#2 WEEKEND BUZZ (ML=9/2)
#4 RED HOT POWER (ML=5/2)


WEEKEND BUZZ - A racer coming back this soon after a nice contest is a good omen. Using this rider/handler combination is a good choice. Trainer, Trevino, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today. RED HOT POWER - I think that today's shorter distance should help this gelding.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 PECKS NOT BAD (ML=2/1), #3 BABA LOOEY (ML=4/1), #6 OHIO EAGLE (ML=5/1),

PECKS NOT BAD - This racer hasn't been on the track since May 1st. Not even any works. Disappointing rating last time around the track at Thistledown at 6 furlongs. Don't think this questionable contender will improve too much in today's event. BABA LOOEY - Pedestrian speed figure last time around the track at Thistledown at 5 1/2 furlongs. Don't think this vulnerable equine will improve too much in today's race. OHIO EAGLE - Hasn't finished in the money in any sprint affairs recently. Not likely to see him doing it this time either. Just can't play any runner right back after he doesn't hit the board after any very long layoff. Finished eighth in his most recent performance with a mediocre fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 WEEKEND BUZZ to win. Have to have odds of at least 2/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass