Wednesday 6/5/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #6

#5 Trouble's Roaring	Mild worry about the fact that he has been prone to settling for a lot of underneath slices, but he gets over to the turf today with reliable form and will be right there if he improves even a touch on the new surface.
#10 Alcove	He can move forward here while getting to the turf at second asking, but he's likely to be another short price and meets a couple other interesting players. One of the ones.
#4 Lieutenant General	Not a whole lot yet from him in a couple dirt starts, but there is some pedigree here to suggest he might like the new trip today for a team that typically excels in this kind of spot.
Race Summary	Move #14 D Day right to the top if he draws in. Trouble's Roaring has been knocking on the door and should be in a great spot tracking the action.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#8 Plum Tricky	Willing to give her a look right back against winners after showing a new dimension last out when tracking the pace and powering past. She's drawn well to replicate the trip today.
#3 Sundance Feature	She has already flashed a lot of talent through two races and drilled a special weight group when getting dirt for the first time here last month. Top choice might have her in her sights the whole way. Interesting to see how she steps up.
#2 Popperina	She's in for a tougher test today, but she has been pretty honest through four starts with consistent finishing form. Wouldn't be a shock.
Race Summary	Plum Tricky looked sharp in the Keeneland graduation run last out, and I'd love to see her find a similar trip while sitting close and watching everything unfold in front of her.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#5 Henro	He's getting a class test today while facing some stakes types, but he has some pretty honest finishing form that might give him a chance to get by these late.
#2 Doncho	He's the best of these on form, but there are a couple other potential forward players in here. Obvious threat at what probably won't be an appealing price.
#3 Beeline	He has some bounce-back potential while turning back to a sharper trip, but he's another who figures to be in the early mix and could be vulnerable late.
Race Summary	A couple of six-furlong stakes winners line up today, and I'm hoping their pace will help Henro get a fair tempo to kick at. His Oaklawn form is heading in the right direction, and I bet he's capable of something better than he showed in his only other local start behind Mystik Dan last fall.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 SIDNEY’S BID (8-5)	Projects dream trip, no excuse to not upgrade in-the-money finishes.
#2 NET WORTH (8-1)	Gets needed class relief, can rally into gimmick wagers at good price.
#6 ARMY CADET (2-1)	Buried lesser in latest, shook duel but couldn’t contain the fave in race prior.
Race Summary	SIDNEY’S BID has two seconds and five thirds in his last 11 starts, finishing behind the likes of favorite Lapinski Union, three-race winner Ghoststryder and recent $8k/nw4 runner-up Bold Medication. He offers little value at 8-5 on the morning line but should rally to victory with plenty of speed up front. Bet to win and play 5-2 and 5-6 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#2 IT’S HAMMERTIME (6-1)	In capable hands, strong bloodlines to win at first asking.
#6 FORTHELOVEOFRUN (6-5)	Sparred to upper stretch, held second to first-out fave, looms odds-on.
#5 HELLO SUNSHINE (3-1)	Stepped it up for final prep for 21-percent barn with 2-year-olds.
Race Summary	IT’S HAMMERTIME worked a bullet from the Delaware Park gate May 24, hails from a solid first-out barn and should offer enough value for a win and place bet with FORTHELOVEOFRUN likely to draw odds-on attention. His sire was a multiple graded stakes winner of $1.2 million and his dam was 18/3-7-3 with $242k in earnings, a stakes-placed sprinter and stakes-winning router for the same barn. Bet to win and place and play a 2-6-ALL trifecta.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#2 MISCHIEFNESS (9-2)	Found right level after 8 months away, move forward makes her tough.
#7 DAISY’S ANGEL (2-1)	Debuted in MSW company, good works on Belmont lawn leading to 3yo debut.
#1 TAPPING FOR JOY (10-1)	Bypasses home base at Charles Town for this spot, use in exotic wagers.
Race Summary	MISCHIEFNESS raced evenly on the class drop to this level in her seasonal debut. But she took some money and showed marked improvement with Lasix on the stretch-out in distance. Bet to win and place in a suspect field and play a 1-2-7 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 2	$1 Double / $1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-4) .50 EARLY Pick 4 (Races 2-5)
Maiden Special • 5 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 72 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 1:00P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. FORTHELOVEOFRUN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FORTHELOVEOFRUN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highes t average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	FORTHELOVEOFRUN	6/5	1/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	FORTHELOVEOFRUN	6	6/5	Alternator/Stalker	86	84	70.2	62.0	60.0

Unknown Running Style: SURFSIDE MOON (7/2) [Jockey: Sanchez Mychel J - Trainer: Lawrence II James L], IT'S HAMMERTIME (6/1) [Jockey: Maldonado Gabriel - Trainer: Capuano Gary], BOURBON N LACE (8/1) [Jockey: Rodriguez Jaime - Trainer: Pecoraro Anthony

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle DownsPURCHASE

Presque Isle Downs - Race 8	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 6:09P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Trailer. TIZ TACT TOE is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ TACT TOE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. BOURBON THUNDER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SIR TERRE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest averag e Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
3	TIZ TACT TOE	5/2	3/1
5	BOURBON THUNDER	4/1	9/2
4	SIR TERRE	2/1	8/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SIR TERRE	4	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	91	69.6	61.4	58.9
3	TIZ TACT TOE	3	5/2	Trailer	82	84	74.8	80.0	75.0
5	BOURBON THUNDER	5	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	85	89	65.4	73.2	67.7
6	REGAL SPEAKER	6	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	90	77	49.0	65.6	57.1
2	ADIOS BOBBY	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	85	80	60.4	50.2	38.7
7	LEAVE 'EM LOADED	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	84	77	54.8	64.4	54.4
1	J P CORNETTA	1	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	70	47.0	61.0	50.5

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $17000 Class Rating: 48

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $11,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $9,000 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LADY LAWRENCE 5/2
# 7 APRIL FIRST 8/1
# 8 IMALOTTALADY 4/1

LADY LAWRENCE looks solid to best this field. Players should feel comfortable with this pick given Coa's recent gains at the window. Reed has her trained quite well to break rapidly out of the starting gate. APRIL FIRST - Her 55 average has this filly with among the most competitive speed figures for this event. With Davis getting the mount, watch out for this equine. IMALOTTALADY - This pick will feel the med change - with second time Lasix today. Her chances to score are much better today facing this less demanding group.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #8 - Post: 4:22pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $141,000 Class Rating: 106

Rating:

#2 DONCHO (ML=5/2)
#7 BEAR RIVER (ML=8/1)


DONCHO - I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough outings since the layoff and should be fit. Lovell brings him right back. I recommend you stick with this hot gelding. Lovell, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this event. A positive sign. BEAR RIVER - Horse is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big performance today. This campaigner coming off a sharp performance in the last 30 days is a solid contender in my humble opinion. Look at this pattern of improvement. 72/90/106 are the last three speed ratings.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BEELINE (ML=2/1), #6 OTTO THE CONQUEROR (ML=6/1), #4 TIME FOR TRUTH (ML=6/1),

BEELINE - 2/1 is not pegged at the proper price for any horse in a sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs that hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event recently. The speed figure last race out doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this animal as a questionable contender. OTTO THE CONQUEROR - 6/1 odds isn't enough for this participant when scrutinizing the most recent outings. TIME FOR TRUTH - All types of crazy speed signed up for this race. Almost no chance for this early speedball. Not easy to bet on any thoroughbred in a sprint clash at 6/1 when he hasn't shown any positive results in sprints in the last couple of months.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 DONCHO to win at post-time odds of 8/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	2 with 7 with [1,5,6] Total Cost: $3
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race #1 - Post: 5:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#6 TWIST OF FAITH (ML=5/2)


TWIST OF FAITH - Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 WORK FROM HOME (ML=2/1), #3 UTILITY (ML=3/1), #1 SO SMOOTH (ML=7/2),

WORK FROM HOME - Hasn't been on the Penn National oval in the last 3 weeks. Cause for some concern. This stretch-runner should have a rough go of it to get up with the lack of pace in this race. UTILITY - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1. Not likely that the rating he registered on May 22nd will be enough in this event. SO SMOOTH - A come from behinder like this one needs a speed battle to set things up and he isn't likely to get one this time around. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this group off of that last speed rating. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class figure, so put him on the likely underpriced equines list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 TWIST OF FAITH is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12500 Class Rating: 79

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 5 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 5 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 HPNOTIQ RHYTHM 9/5
# 5 AGADOR SPARTACUS 7/2
# 2 FUTURE VICTORY 4/1

I favor HPNOTIQ RHYTHM here. Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this racer look competitive in this race. With Colon in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out early for this event. With a very good 80 Equibase speed fig last time out, will surely be a factor in this affair. AGADOR SPARTACUS - Have to wager on this gelding with the formidable earnings per start in dirt route events. With a solid 70 Equibase Speed Fig last time out, will definitely be a factor in this outing. FUTURE VICTORY - Is difficult not to consider based on Speed Figures which have been very good - 66 avg - of late. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Ouzts should have this gelding in excellent position to win the affair.