Thursday 6/6/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Scott Shapiro: Belmont Festival Special Wagers, Best to Worst

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June 5, 2024
In recent years, racetracks have really opened up the horizontal options for horseplayers on big days. This is once again the case during the Belmont Stakes Festival held this year at Saratoga where NYRA has 13 “Special Wagers” available.

There will be lots of content analyzing the races within these sequences, as well as suggested tickets in the coming days, but first let’s take a look at the overall attractiveness from a gambling perspective of the many options at our disposal in Saratoga Springs this week.


1. 2-Day Pick 5 (All Turf)- What is there not to love about a 15% takeout Pick 5 over two days of high-quality racing? Very little in my opinion. Add to the mix a pair of Friday stakes that includes an outstanding edition of the New York Stakes (G1), as well as a full field for the Jaipur (G1) on Saturday, and you have the wager of the week. No doubt I will be diving in heavily at 1ST Bet/ XpressBet come Friday evening at 5:30 PM eastern.

2. 2-Day Pick 6 (All Dirt)- Much like the “2-Day Pick 5” there is little to dislike about a $1 minimum Pick 6 with a 15% takeout spread over two of the best days of racing all year. That said, depending on your opinions this could get a little chalky. If you like Thorpedo Anna in the Acorn (G1), Gun Pilot in the True North (G2), one of the morning line choices in the Met Mile (G1), and Sierra Leone in the Belmont Stakes (G1), I would avoid going too deep into your budget for this wager. If you are against a few of them, this could make your weekend.

3. New York- Belmont Stakes Double- I really like the idea of a $5 minimum first and foremost for the six “Special” Daily Doubles offered during the 2024 Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, but it might be a bit of overkill having five of them close with the final leg of the Triple Crown. I will avoid a few of them, but not this one. The New York is the race of the day on Friday and of course the Belmont is the race of the month.

4. Saturday Triple Play (All Turf)- Keeneland’s Director of Wagering Development Jim Goodman is one of the game’s good guys and his invention of the All-Turf Pick 3 has been a great addition to wagering menus across the country. These “Triple Play” wagers would rank even higher for me if they offered up Keeneland’s 15% takeout, but nonetheless they are a lot of fun and can be very lucrative at times. Of the four Double options, this one stands out with the inclusion of the Jaipur.

5. Acorn-Belmont Stakes Double- NYRA’s version of the Kentucky Oaks-Kentucky Derby Double combines two of the biggest races of the weekend making it hard to knock, but it lacks a bit of attraction this year for those of us who believe Thorpedo Anna is the clear one to beat at a likely short price in this year’s Acorn.

6. Friday Triple Play (All Turf)- There is absolutely nothing wrong with a three-race sequence that consists of a starter allowance and a pair of allowance optional claimers over the sod. The field sizes make it even more appealing. Dive in if you have a strong opinion. Unfortunately, I do not so I will tread lightly early on Friday.

7. Intercontinental- Belmont Stakes Double- With Roses for Debra likely to be a short price in the Intercontinental, this wager is probably best utilized if you are against her or Sierra Leone in the Belmont. If those two both cross the wire first, the payout is likely to underwhelm.

8. Just A Game- Belmont Stakes Double- This is a fine wager if you have a strong opinion in this year’s Just A Game (G1), but I struggle to want to go too deep or spend too much here with trainer Chad Brown having five of the seven entered in Friday afternoon’s one-mile event over Saratoga’s Inner Turf. I would definitely avoid spreading deep in the Just a Game with too many of the Brown gals. Take a stand.

9. Thursday Triple Play (All Turf)- No issue with the concept of these All-Turf Pick 3’s other than the 19% takeout, but with all the high-quality racing in upstate New York this week, do we really need to dive head first right off the rip into a sequence that kicks off with a maiden claimer?

10. Met Mile- Belmont Stakes Double- Most years a Daily Double with two of the ten biggest races in North America would be extremely attractive. Unfortunately, this year’s Met Mile is not a great gambling event. With National Treasure and White Abarrio likely to take most of the money, this wager is only appealing to me if you are against one of them or against Sierra Leone in the Belmont Stakes.

11. Gold Cup- New York Double- I have a lot of interest in wagering on the New York both horizontally and vertically. I have little interest though in the Belmont Gold Cup making this a pass for me on Thursday afternoon.

12. Sunday Triple Play (All Turf)- Same thoughts as Thursday with a maiden claimer included plus who is saving part of their weekly budget for this? Feels like this a wager for those who have a big few days or those chasing (not recommended).

13. 2-Day Pick 4- A fun idea as often is the case in North American racing is ruined by the 24% takeout. Combine that with a two-mile turf race to get the sequence started and you have an easy pass for yours truly despite some fun races included within the four-race slate.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #3

#6 Mo Rum	He gets in for a tag for the first time after chasing a nice winner last time out, and he should be in line for a trip that gives him every chance to get first jump and try to stay from there.
#9 Mount Craig	He tries this easier kind of spot after a long string of tough special weight spots -- he has earned almost $200,000 while still winless, and they'd take home another $85,000 or so if he won this and got claimed. Seems like a pretty low-risk, high-reward dip into the claiming ranks.
#12 Mandalorian	He didn't have the best break in the debut run before making a mild move, but he probably has some upside while dropping in class with that race under his belt.
Race Summary	Mo Rum might offer a decent enough price against this softer group, and I wonder if he'll be able to find a little bit more late enthusiasm while facing easier company.

Churchill Downs - Race #4

#2 Sierra Sky	She might be too cheap at this point in time, but she steps up to try winners for the first time and may have moved forward a bit into this point of her 3-year-old season. Midrange price chance?
#5 Weigh the Risks	Tough call for me, as she races for top connections while lacking a little bit on overall form. Not sure the price is going to reflect her realistic chances in here, but even these types can often fire big ones for this team.
#10 Simply In Front	Her better form would be tough today if she can step forward at all from the comeback try, and she brings some pretty tough company lines with her to this one. Wouldn't surprise.
Race Summary	Sierra Sky has some appeal while rising to face winners, as I think she's going to be in a really good spot tracking the early splits and could still have a touch of upside.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#7 Cash Equity	There are some pretty tough customers in his company lines over the last year, and he almost always turns in an honest finishing effort. Can be tough with his better stuff.
#2 Salute the Stars	He faced some decent runners in those graded sophomore stakes last year, and I'm guessing we can forgive his last after the dull run sent him to the bench. Better fresh today?
#11 Leading the Charge	He's back off the nearly two-year break, so I'm treading lightly with what is otherwise consistent form against cheaper crews overall than he's going to find here. Still admire his consistency and his proven ability to fire fresh.
Race Summary	Cash Equity has some solid form from last year that would make him a handful today, and there is no Du Jour or Gold Phoenix lined up for him this time around.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 FABULOUS CANDY (8-1)	Right set-up, right price to build on solid Delaware Park record.
#3 GO MARGIE GO (2-1)	Travels well, fires fresh, takes class drop off the claim.
#7 LOVELY LIZA (10-1)	Another steady check-getter to use in gimmick wagers on the stretch-out.
Race Summary	FABULOUS CANDY earned her top speed figure in a near miss at this level two starts ago, then ran second as the favorite for $25k to enhance her Delaware Park record to 5/2-3-0. She should sit an ideal stalking trip in her bid to upgrade a series of in-the-money finishes. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#1 MR MOX (5-1)	Knocking on winning door at this level, tough post in crowded field.
#3 FLAT LUCKY (7-2)	Towers over field if you discount latest, recent :48 work encouraging.
#11 RAHMER (12-1)	Can rally into gimmick wagers at big price, had trouble lines in last three starts.
Race Summary	MR. MOX swung 5-wide for the stretch drive but was out-kicked by the troubled winner and today’s rival BONNIE BILL in the same spot at Laurel Park. The raced timed 2/5 of a second faster than a $30k/nw3 claimer on the same card. He has to negotiate the rail draw with a new pilot but is worth a win and place bet and part of a 1-3-11 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#2 BIG ANDY MORT (15-1)	Much improved try at Oaklawn off similar rest, can upset if he takes to turf.
#5 PHOTO COPY (9-2)	Did not finish in ‘hurdles’ marathons, was competitive in $30k turf routes prior.
#6 HOYA (8-1)	Second in MSW company here last fall, made middle move and flattened out in latest.
Race Summary	BIG ANDY MORT arrives at Delaware off an encouraging effort against $50k Arkansas breds at Oaklawn Park. He rallied 4-wide into the stretch and finished third in a longshot extravaganza at one mile on a sloppy track. He scratched from a turf-to-dirt MSW race and runs for $16k today with blinkers added. Bet to win and place and play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

PURCHASE

Camarero - Race 4	Pick 4 (4-7) / Pick 3 (4-6) / Exacta / Trifecta / Daily Double 4-5
Claiming $4,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 63 • Purse: $6,000 • Post: 4:00P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE JUNE 6 AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 21 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 6 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 6 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SNOWZILLA: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MADAM ALPHA: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SIREN'S LUCKY SONG: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibas e Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. STYLISH KITTEN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
4	SNOWZILLA	2/1	4/1
3	MADAM ALPHA	3/1	7/1
7	SIREN'S LUCKY SONG	20/1	8/1
6	STYLISH KITTEN	10/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	SNOWZILLA	4	2/1	Front-runner	68	56	67.8	56.4	52.9
7	SIREN'S LUCKY SONG	7	20/1	Front-runner	66	64	66.8	40.8	29.3
2	LADY TAPATIA	2	5/1	Front-runner	64	66	62.4	36.6	27.1
3	MADAM ALPHA	3	3/1	Trailer	62	60	56.2	57.0	52.5
6	STYLISH KITTEN	6	10/1	Trailer	71	57	45.0	48.2	40.7
5	HUSH Y'ALL	5	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	48	41	60.0	45.6	40.6
1	LITTLE GARDENS	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	47	43.2	25.0	12.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair MeadowsPURCHASE

Fair Meadows - Race 8	$2 Exacta / (.50) Trifecta / (.10) Superfecta / $2 Daily Double
Allowance • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $21,120 • Post: 9:16P
FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PAULA M is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PAULA M: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MISS LONG LEGS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CREES VA LENTYME: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. REALITY CHECK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. RAINBOW SMILES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
4	PAULA M	8/5	4/1
7	MISS LONG LEGS	5/1	6/1
3	CREES VALENTYME	12/1	9/1
6	REALITY CHECK	15/1	10/1
2	RAINBOW SMILES	12/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	PAULA M	4	8/5	Front-runner	58	60	79.4	56.2	47.7
9	SHOOTIN RUN	9	12/1	Stalker	50	52	52.8	45.4	30.9
3	CREES VALENTYME	3	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	63	58.7	45.5	30.5
5	SHAWK'S LIL MIA	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	56	52	57.5	48.9	39.4
6	REALITY CHECK	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	56	55.0	52.2	44.2
8	SEATTLE WILDCAT	8	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	58	60	51.3	44.4	35.4
7	MISS LONG LEGS	7	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	69	65	22.6	60.5	55.5
2	RAINBOW SMILES	2	12/1	Trailer	66	59	30.0	55.6	47.6
1	GOSPEL FAITH	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	53	61.6	46.0	32.0
10	SPLITSECONDECISION	10	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	62	51	34.0	39.0	22.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Special Wager

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $23800 Class Rating: 84

IND - R3 - FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR THREE YEAR OLDS OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE NOVEMBER 6, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 INDIANA BRED MAIDENS AND INDIANA BRED CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MAJOR SPARKS 5/1
# 14 MINE OWN STAR 10/1
# 8 CLEARING WAIVERS 12/1

I have to support MAJOR SPARKS here. Expect this equine to be right there at the finish versus these ponies. Is worth considering and may be a wager - strong Equibase Speed Figures (85 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Recent figures for the rider - 19 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field. MINE OWN STAR - With Correa getting the mount, watch out for this pony. Put up a formidable speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. CLEARING WAIVERS - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this gelding.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #8 - Post: 8:13pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $36,100 Class Rating: 65

Rating:

#5 CALM COOL (ML=7/2)


CALM COOL - Aboard this thoroughbred on May 10th and Salles is yet again in the irons this race. The May 10th race at Woodbine was at a class level of (71). Dropping down the ladder based on class significantly, so she should be in a good position.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SILENT PATSY (ML=5/2), #6 HIGH TREASON (ML=3/1), #3 STORMY OCEAN (ML=6/1),

SILENT PATSY - Earned a run-of-the-mill speed fig last time out in a $15,000 Maiden Claiming race on May 12th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that figure. HIGH TREASON - If you keep choosing these kind of 'bridesmaid' types, you're going to be disillusioned often. This mare has had numerous races at Woodbine and still no triumphs. STORMY OCEAN - I'm forecasting a less than stellar go of it out of her today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #5 CALM COOL on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delaware Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 81

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE DECEMBER 6, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MR. MOX 5/1
# 2 BAHAMA CHANNEL 12/1
# 5 BONNIE BILL 6/1

MR. MOX has a very strong shot to take this race. Overall the speed figs of this racer look very good in this contest. I expect a very good performance from this equine whose trainer has one of the most favorable ROI percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. Earned a sound Equibase Speed Figure in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest. BAHAMA CHANNEL - Has performed solidly recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 74 avg speed figure. BONNIE BILL - Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager for this event.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #8 - Post: 4:05pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,700 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#5 WISSAM SHARAF (ML=6/1)
#11 FRENCH BREAD (ML=8/1)


WISSAM SHARAF - You always have to be on the lookout for money making jockey/conditioner teams; we have one right here. Owns the highest speed fig on the turf at this distance. FRENCH BREAD - Hess comes to get aboard after getting to know the gelding in the last event. Taking a big drop in class figure points from his April 24th race at Keeneland. Based on that valuable data, I will give this animal the advantage. This one has recorded the best recent turf speed rating at the dist/surf.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 COACH PETRO (ML=5/2), #6 CALL ME CASSIUS (ML=7/2), #1 FULL ARMOR (ML=9/2),

COACH PETRO - This favorite may be out of form without any recent workouts. Hard to put any dough on this colt on the front end. Likes to hit the board though. Will probably be stranded with too much to do down the homestretch. CALL ME CASSIUS - Based on the pace scenario in this race, this animal doesn't fit in here. With a single front-runner and this horse having to race from behind, he sure has a tough assignment. This horse hasn't been in the money in either of his last couple of efforts. FULL ARMOR - This horse hasn't had nary a single morning drill after running so well on May 15th. Will probably be at the rear with much too much to do in the lane.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WISSAM SHARAF - I like to check out the TrackMaster Platinum PPs to look for the top entrant in earnings per start. This horse looks good to me so I'm making a prime investment on him.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 WISSAM SHARAF is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,11]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None