Saturday 6/8/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2024, 07:30 AM

Jon White: Belmont Stakes Selections

June 5, 2024 | By Jon White
Ten 3-year-olds are poised to clash in the Belmontoga Stakes this Saturday (June 8).

I say “Belmontoga Stakes” because this year’s $2 million Belmont Stakes has been moved to Saratoga and shorted to 1 1/4 miles from its usual distance of 1 1/2 miles due to Belmont Park being under construction.

From the rail out, the field for this year’s 156th running of the Grade I Belmont Stakes consists of Seize the Grey (8-1 on David Aragona’s morning line), Resilience (10-1), Mystik Dan (5-1), The Wine Steward (15-1), Antiquarian (12-1), Dornoch (15-1), Protective (20-1), Honor Marie (12-1), Sierra Leone (9-5) and Mindframe (7-2).

This will be the first time in history that the Belmont Stakes has been run at Saratoga.

Below are my Belmont Stakes selections:

1. Mindframe
2. Sierra Leone
3. Mystik Dan
4. Seize the Grey

This year’s Belmont features a showdown between Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Preakness Stakes victor Seize the Grey.

You have to go back to 2013 for the last time that different winners of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness clashed in the Belmont. That 2013 Belmont attracted Derby winner Orb and Preakness hero Oxbow, but neither won the Belmont.

After Palace Malice finished 12th in the Run for the Roses, he won the Belmont by 3 1/4 lengths at odds of 13-1. Oxbow finished second at 10-1. Orb, the 2-1 favorite, had to settle for third in the field of 14.

D. Wayne Lukas trained Oxbow. Lukas also conditioned Will Take Charge, who wound up being voted the 2013 Eclipse Award-winning 3-year-old male despite being an also-ran in the three Triple Crown races.

Will Take Charge finished eighth in the Kentucky Derby, seventh in the Preakness and 10th in the Belmont. After those uninspiring performances, Will Take Charge went on to win the Travers Stakes and Pennsylvania Derby and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic when losing by a scant nose to the older Mucho Macho Man.

Will 2024 be the same as 2013 in that the Belmont will not be won by either the Kentucky Derby winner or Preakness winner? I believe so. I am thinking that the winner of the 2024 Belmont is going to be probable favorite Sierra Leone or undefeated Mindframe. I had a devil of a time trying to decide which one of those two to make my top pick, but I’ve opted for Mindframe.

It’s not as if I’m taking a wild stab by picking Mindframe to win. He is the second choice on the morning line.

I was blown away by Mindframe when he was unveiled in a seven-furlong maiden race at Gulfstream Park on March 30. Not only did he run up the score in the lane to win by 13 3/4 lengths, I loved the way he relaxed so nicely early when sitting a couple of lengths or so off the pace for jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be back aboard in the Belmont.

In his maiden victory, Mindframe posted an excellent final time of 1:21.72. He was credited with a 103 Beyer Speed Figure. It’s the highest Beyer among the 10 entrants in Saturday’s Belmont.

Admittedly, that wasn’t the strongest bunch of maidens left in Mindframe’s wake on March 30. Far from it. But two of his victims have subsequently won. Runner-up One Sharp Cookie wired a group of Florida-bred maidens when victorious by 2 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong race on May 23 at Gulfstream (77 Beyer). Ponce de Leon, fifth to Mineframe on March 30, won a 6 1/2-furlong maiden sprint by 3 lengths on May 25 at Woodbine (88 Beyer).

Mindframe’s next start came in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claimer on the Kentucky Derby undercard. It was the third race of the day. Mindframe ran on a wet, drying-out surface listed as good. The track had been labeled muddy for the first race and later was upgraded to fast for the sixth race.

Again ridden by Ortiz, Mindframe showed the way by a length or so through the early stages, then widened in the stretch and won by 7 1/2 lengths while “geared down in the final sixteenth,” according to the Equibase chart. His final time was 1:43.17. He recorded a 97 Beyer.

How good is Mindframe? Who knows? Is he a superstar? Maybe. Or is he biting off more than he can chew in the Belmont? This also is a possibility.

I consider it to be a positive that Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher and owners Mike Repole and St. Elias Stables are willing to run the lightly race Mindframe in the Belmont. With such a promising 3-year-old, they certainly could have taken a more conservative approach and found a much easier spot for Mindframe. This sign of confidence in Mindframe is one of the reasons Mindframe is my top pick in the Belmont.

Mindframe also is Matt Shifman’s top choice in the Belmont for Horse Racing Nation.

“The move from an allowance victory to a Triple Crown race is significant. The fact that Pletcher is making the move has to be considered an endorsement,” Shifman wrote. “Mindframe lacks in experience, but his pair of brilliant victories suggests he could be any kind. He is bred to handle the distance. Mindframe is the top choice on the chance that he will run this field off their feet.”

Mindframe is by Constitution. If Mindframe does succeed in the Belmont, a son of Constitution will have won the only two Belmont Stakes held at a distance different than 1 1/2 miles from 1926 to this year.

In 2020, due to COVID, the Belmont Stakes kicked off the Triple Crown series and was decided at 1 1/8 miles. Tiz the Law, who like Mindframe is by Constitution, won the shortened Belmont by 3 3/4 lengths.

Constitution is by Tapit, who has sired a record-equaling four winners of the Belmont Stakes. Tapit’s Belmont winners have been Tonalist (2014), Creator (2016), Taprit (2017) and Essential Quality (2021).

Lexington is the only other sire with four Belmont winners: General Duke (1868), Kingfisher (1870), Harry Bassett (1871) and Duke of Magenta (1878).

I came very close to going with Sierra Leone as my top pick in this year’s Belmont. This race seems made to order for the talented $2.3 million auction purchase. He is just two noses away from being five for five.

Sierra Leone lost Aqueduct’s Remsen Stakes by a nose on a muddy track last Dec. 2. He lost the Kentucky Derby by the same margin at Churchill Downs on May 4 after lugging in and bumping Forever Young during the stretch run.

I heard Richard Migliore say on America’s Day at the Races that the bumping between Sierra Leone and Forever Young was started by Forever Young when he came out in upper stretch.

Yes, when looking at the head-on, it appears that Forever Young came out and initiated the contact with Sierra Leone. It appears that way because the front part of Forever Young’s body is angled toward the grandstand when the first bump occurs. But if you watch it closely on the pan, you will see Sierra Leone actually comes over and slams into the hind end of Forever Young, which is why the front part of his body is angled toward the grandstand. Saying that the bumping was started by Forever Young is just flat incorrect. It was started by Sierra Leone, who “bumped, shoved and basically mauled Forever Young” during the stretch run, as Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin wrote.

Sierra Leone previously had lugged in during a race, something he also had done when he won Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes by 1 1/2 lengths.

Any way you slice it, Sierra Leone ran a big race in Louisville to lose by the narrowest of margins. Trainer Chad Brown is hoping an equipment change for the Belmont in the form of what is called a cage bit will help the Gun Runner colt not revert to his tendency to lug in.

“He’s been doing great, bounced out of the Derby, which can obviously be a tough race on horses, beautifully,” Brown said in a Daily Racing Form article written by David Grening. “He’s training really good here [at Saratoga], just hoping we have a good trip. There are [not] as many horses to run down [as in the Derby], hopefully it’ll be a little easier on him. I just hope he runs the same race he ran in the Derby.”

If Sierra Leone does run the same race he ran in the Kentucky Derby, which produced a 99 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort, I can’t help wondering if that will be good enough to get the job done in the Belmont.

Sierra Leone’s top Beyer to date has been his 99 in the Kentucky Derby. Is he worth betting at a short price when not one, not two, but three of his Belmont opponents have recorded a Beyer of 100 or higher? I don’t think so.

As noted earlier, Mindframe’s 103 is the top Beyer Speed Figure in the field.

Mystik Dan, a Goldencents colt, ran a 101 Beyer on a muddy track when winning Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes and a 100 Beyer when victorious on a dry track in the Kentucky Derby.

Kenny McPeek trains Mystik Dan. McPeek won the 2002 Belmont with Sarava.

Seize the Grey, who is trained by Hall of Famer Lukas, came away with a 100 Beyer for his front-running Preakness score.

Lukas has won the Belmont four times: Tabasco Cat in 1994, Thunder Gulch in 1995, Editor’s Note in 1996 and Commendable in 2000.

After having won the Kentucky Derby and finished second in the Preakness, Mystik Dan is the division’s leader going into the Belmont, which is reflected by this week’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old Poll. Mystik Dan is ranked No. 1. Sierra Leone is No. 2. Seize the Grey is No. 3.

By the way, McPeek’s win with Sarava in 2002 is definitely one of my least-favorite Belmonts.

In the Kentucky Derby that year, Medaglia d’Oro experienced a troubled start, then rallied from 10th to finish fourth at odds of 6-1. In my opinion, many made a mountain out of a molehill regarding Medaglia d’Oro’s trouble in the Derby. Thus, I felt that he became a so-called “wise-guy horse” in the Preakness, going off at a ridiculously low 3-1 when higher odds would have been justified.

I labeled Tuscan Gold a wise-guy horse in this year’s Preakness. It was my view that he probably was getting more support in the wagering than he deserved vis-a-vis his chances of winning the race. Sent off at 4-1 in the Preakness, he finished fourth.

Medaglia d’Oro, like Tuscan Gold, finished fourth in his Preakness.

After Medaglia d’Oro was soundly defeated by 17 1/4 lengths in Baltimore, his trainer, Bobby Frankel, said he was shipping the colt back to Southern California. Frankel said he probably would be looking at stakes races on the grass at Del Mar for Medaglia d’Oro. But instead of doing that, Frankel sent Medaglia d’Oro to the Belmont, which I took as a huge positive.

Why did I feel that Medaglia d’Oro was a live longshot in the Belmont at 16-1? Because I thought that Frankel, a native New Yorker, would not have sent Medaglia d’Oro to run in the Belmont unless the trainer felt the colt would do a lot better than he did in the Preakness. I didn’t think Frankel would risk being embarrassed in an important New York race by having the son of El Prado turn in another bad performance.

Medaglia d’Oro did follow his thrashing in the Preakness by running a good race in the Belmont. But, unfortunately for me, it was not quite good enough.

Sarava won by a half-length for McPeek at 70-1. Sarava returned $142.50, which broke the record for highest $2 win mutuel in the history of the Belmont Stakes. The previous record had been Sherluck’s $132.10 in 1961. Sarava’s $142.50 is still the record.

Medaglia d’Oro, the 2002 Belmont runner-up, paid $12.00 to place.

Protective, slated to run in this year’s Belmont, is a son of Medaglia d’Oro.

You may recall that the 2002 Belmont was the one in which War Emblem was thwarted in his attempt at a Triple Crown sweep when he finished eighth as the 6-5 favorite after stumbling at the start.

REVISITING THE 2013 BELMONT STAKES

While Sierra Leone undergoes an equipment change for this year’s Belmont in that he will be racing with a different bit, the winner of the 2013 Belmont, Palace Malice, also had an equipment change for that renewal. Palace Malice had blinkers removed for the Belmont after wearing them for the first time in the Kentucky Derby.

I wrote this in my 2013 Belmont Stakes recap for Xpressbet.com: “In the Kentucky Derby, with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith in the saddle, Palace Malice set a crazy pace (:22.57, :45.33 and 1:09.80) and finished 12th. And then, in the 1 1/2-mile Belmont, when racing without blinkers and with Smith again aboard, Palace Malice won by 3 1/4 lengths after he sat close to the pace through the first mile (:23.11, :46.66, 1:10.95, 1:36.47), which was pretty demanding for a 1 1/2-mile race.

“Many believe that Palace Malice took off early in the Derby because of trainer Todd Pletcher’s decision to add blinkers to the colt’s equipment. However, Smith feels something else besides the blinkers actually was more responsible for that.”

Three days after the Belmont, Smith said on Steve Byk’s SiriusXM radio program At the Races that he felt a sloppy track had more to do with Palace Malice running so fast early in the Kentucky Derby than the addition of blinkers.

“There was a lot of rain the night before the Derby and the racetrack was real sloppy for the race,” Smith said. “The game plan was to just ride him out of there and sit in a stalking position. Well, when we broke, I kind of rode him out of there a little bit. But he broke so well that when I did that, he was basically gone. And then with all that noise behind him [18 horses splashing loudly on the sloppy track], I truly believe it just scared him to death. I mean, he was just flat running off with me. He just ran right through the bridle. So therefore Todd decided to take the blinkers off for the Belmont.”

In fact, the Kentucky Derby was the only time Palace Malice would ever have blinkers on in his 17-race career.

Palace Malice was one of five Pletcher trainees in the 2013 Belmont. Pletcher also sent out Revolutionary (who finished fifth), the filly Unlimited Budget (sixth), Overanalyze (seventh) and Midnight Taboo (12th).

Pletcher has three of the entrants in this year’s Belmont. They are Mindframe, Antiquarian and the maiden Protective.

Rags to Riches in 2007 became Pletcher’s first of four Belmont Stakes winners. The other three have been the aforementioned Palace Malice in 2013, Tapwrit in 2017 and Mo Donegal in 2022.

Even though Rags to Riches stumbled at the start and had a wide trip, she won the Belmont by a head. Finishing second was no less than Curlin, who was inducted into the national Hall of Fame in 2024 after being voted Horse of the Year in 2007 and 2008.

As I’ve written numerous times, I strongly believe it is wrong that Rags to Riches isn’t in the Hall of Fame. But it’s also become increasingly clear to me that too many feel otherwise, which is why I have come to the conclusion that Hall of Fame membership for her is not going to happen.

I’ve heard some people say that they think Rags to Riches doesn’t belong in the Hall of Fame because she didn’t race enough. Well, she made seven career starts, which was one more than Justify, who is being inducted into the Hall of Fame this year.

And, yes, I know some may argue that while it’s true that Justify made one less start than Rags to Riches, Justify deserves to be in the Hall of Fame because he accomplished something historic by becoming this country’s 13th Triple Crown winner.

But the truth is that Rags to Riches also achieved something historic. In 2007, she became the first filly to win the Belmont Stakes in more than 100 years. No filly had won the Belmont since Tanya in 1905.

To this day, while there have been 13 Triple Crown winners, only three fillies have ever won the Belmont Stakes. They are Ruthless in the first running of the Belmont in 1867, Tanya in 1905 and Rags to Riches in 2007.

For those who don’t feel that Rags to Riches did enough besides her Belmont Stakes victory to merit Hall of Fame membership, I submit that she did win a total four Grade I races. That’s more Grade I victories than Genuine Risk and Winning Colors, who both are in the Hall of Fame, as they should be.

Since races in this country were first graded in 1973, only five fillies have won a Triple Crown event. The number of Grade I wins for these five fillies is listed below:

5 Rachel Alexandra
4 Rags to Riches
3 Winning Colors
3 Swiss Skydiver
2 Genuine Risk

SECRETARIAT’S BREATHTAKING BELMONT

One of the things I’m the most proud of was predicting in print in the spring of 1973 that Secretariat would end a 25-year Triple Crown drought. Because of that prediction, I was on pins and needles when he went into the Belmont Stakes with a chance at Triple Crown glory.

Keep in mind that because Secretariat was by Bold Ruler, many questioned whether he had the stamina to win the Kentucky Derby at 1 1/4 miles. Not only did he win the Derby, his final time of 1:59 3/5 broke the track record by two-fifths of a second, a mark that still stands 51 years later.

But could Secretariat win going 1 1/2 miles? Despite the fact he had not yet run in a race as long as 1 1/2 miles, Secretariat was hammered down to 1-10 favoritism in the Belmont Stakes. But there still was the possibility that he would join the seven horses who got beat in the Belmont with a Triple Crown on the line since Citation’s sweep in 1948. Those seven horses were Tim Tam (1958), Carry Back (1961), Northern Dancer (1964), Kauai King (1966), Forward Pass (1968), Majestic Prince (1969) and Canonero II (1971).

But, of course, not only did Secretariat win the Belmont Stakes, he did so by a ridiculous 31 lengths to become a Triple Crown winner, as I had predicted in my high school newspaper, the Lewis and Clark Journal.

This is from my sports column on March 22, 1973:

“SPORTS FOCUS

“A Look at Triple Crown

“By Jon White

“Going out on a limb and living dangerously, I dare say that 1973 will be a historic year as Secretariat will become the first Triple Crown winner since the great Citation in 1948.

“The 1972 Horse of the Year made his [1973] debut an impressive one as he exploded to a 4 1/2-length triumph in the $27,750 Bay Shore Stakes at Aqueduct last Saturday.

“Ridden by regular rider Ron Turcotte, Secretariat put on his usual late burst of speed to easily put away Champagne Charlie and Impecunious, who finished second and third.

“Running the seven furlongs in 1:23 1/5 over a sloppy track, the outstanding son of Bold Ruler appears to be able to beat anybody, anywhere, anytime and at any distance.

“Secretariat is owned by Meadow Stables and trained by Lucien Laurin, who produced last year’s winner of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, Riva Ridge.

“Secretariat currently is the ‘people’s choice’ and looks to be odds-on at this stage to win the Kentucky Derby in May.”

Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes victory is widely regarded as the greatest performance by a Thoroughbred in American racing history.

While I watched Secretariat’s Belmont, it was thrilling to see him “moving like a tremendous machine,” as Chic Anderson famously described it during his call of the race for a CBS television audience of some 15 million.

Secretariat’s final time of 2:24 in the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion” slaughtered Gallant Man’s track record by a 2 3/5 seconds. As Anderson noted, “that is a record that may stand forever.”

Secretariat.com’s Steve Haskin this week wrote about Secretariat’s Belmont. I highly recommend that you read it: https://www.secretariat.com/what-you...riats-belmont/

Haskin noted that in the 51 years since Secretariat’s Belmont Stakes, “no one has come even remotely close” to his record of 2:24. The two fastest Belmont winners since Secretariat “were Hall of Famers A.P. Indy and Easy Goer, both of whom would have been beaten 10 lengths by Secretariat. And he would have beaten the previous record holder, Hall of Famer Gallant Man, by 13 lengths.

“…To give you an idea of how wide the chasm is between Secretariat’s record and the times Belmont winners have been running this century,” Haskin added, “the average time since 2000 has been 2:28 3/5, which is an astounding 23 lengths slower than Big Red. And those figures include the two Triple Crown winners, American Pharoah and Justify.”

Entrants in this year’s Belmont Stakes who have Secretariat appearing in their pedigree are Resilience, Mystik Dan, The Wine Steward, Antiquarian, Dornoch, Honor Marie, Sierra Leone and Mindframe.

JUSTIFY’S CITY OF TROY WINS EPSOM DERBY

Thanks to a $100 future book wager I made on Justify for the 2018 Kentucky Derby at odds of 100-1, a ticket I ultimately cashed for $10,000 at the Wynn Race Book in Las Vegas, he forever will be one of my favorite racehorses.

Of course, after winning the roses, Justify would go on to become this country’s 13th Triple Crown winner.

After leaving the racing stage, Justify has truly become fantastic sire. In his latest achievement as a stallion, a son of his, City of Troy, won the 245th running of the Epsom Derby by a decisive 2 3/4 lengths last Saturday (June 1).

It was the record-extending 10th Epsom Derby victory for trainer Aidan O’Brien.

Bob Baffert, who trained Justify, posted this on the social media platform X: “Congratulations to Team Aidan O’Brien on his 10th Epsom Derby win. City of Troy was superb -- following in the footsteps of his sire, Justify – a brilliant racehorse who continues to stamp himself as [a] spectacular sire.”

What Justify has accomplished already at stud has been nothing less than phenomenal.

Daily Racing Form’s Nicole Russo wrote: “Justify is the sire of Eclipse Award champion Just F Y I, European champions City of Troy and Opera Singer, and Australian champion Learning to Fly; he is represented by stakes winners in the U.S., Canada, England, Ireland, France, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.”

After City of Troy suffered his first loss when finishing ninth while making his 3-year-old debut in the Two Thousand Guineas, he regained his luster with his Epsom Derby victory. The Thousand Guineas has been his lone defeat in five career starts.

O’Brien, in a mea culpa, said that he “made mistakes” in training City of Troy for the Two Thousand Guineas, adding that the Kentucky-bred colt was “too fresh” and “unprepared” for that race.

After City of Troy’s triumph last Saturday, O’Brien was effusive with his praise for the colt. When asked if City of Troy was the best of O’Brien’s 10 Epsom Derby winners, the legendary horseman said: “I’d say no doubt.”

It was just a year ago that O’Brien executed a similar Epsom Derby “rebound victory” with Auguste Rodin. The Deep Impact colt won the Epsom Derby after having flopped in the Two Thousand Guineas when finishing 12th.

Contributing to City of Troy’s Epsom Derby win was yet another ride that was an absolute masterpiece on the part of Ryan Moore. Toward the back of the pack in the early going, Moore managed to deftly guide City of Troy through traffic while rallying in the field of 16.

Though City of Troy no longer has an unblemished record, what he did in the Epsom Derby clearly shows that he is one of the most talented racehorses on the planet.

ROMANTIC WARRIOR WINS AGAIN, THIS TIME IN JAPAN

Last Sunday at Tokyo Racecourse, Romantic Warrior proved a punctual 5-2 favorite in the Group I Yasuda Kinen. The 6-year-old Irish-bred Acclamation gelding is based in Hong Kong.

Romantic Warrior’s dam is the Street Cry mare Folk Melody. Street Cry sired the amazing Zenyatta, America’s Horse of the Year in 2010. Zenyatta won her first 19 starts before ending her racing career with a valiant head loss to Blame in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

The Yasuda Kinen was Romantic Warrior’s fifth consecutive win, all at the Group I level. He has been victorious in 11 of 16 career starts.

In addition to Romantic Warrior’s multiple Group I victories in Hong Kong, he won the Group I Cox Plate and Group I Turnbull Stakes last year in Australia.

With Romantic Warrior’s win in the Yasuda Kinen at about mile on grass, he secured an automatic berth in this year’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile on Del Mar’s turf course in early November through the Breeders’ Cup Challenge Series’ Win and You’re In races.

One gets the feeling it’s probably a longshot, but how marvelous would it be to see Romantic Warrior show up for this year’s Breeders’ Cup Mile?

During his current winning streak, Romantic Warrior has prevailed by a nose, a nose, a neck, a neck and a half-length. This ability to constantly win close decisions brings to mind this country’s great gelding John Henry. Many of John Henry’s 39 lifetime wins came in a photo finish.

John Henry was voted Horse of the Year in 1981 at age 6 and again in 1984 at age 9. I seriously doubt that we will ever see another 9-year-old Horse of the Year.

On my list of the Top 100 Thoroughbreds to have won in North America during the 20th century and 21st century so far, John Henry is No. 23, as shown below (in parentheses, when applicable, is where the horse ranked on BloodHorse’s list of the Top 100 Racehorses of the 20th Century):

1. Man o’ War (1)
2. Secretariat* (2)
3. Citation* (3)
4. Kelso (4)
5. Spectacular Bid (10)
6. Native Dancer (7)
7. Dr. Fager (6)
8. Seattle Slew* (9)
9. Count Fleet* (5)
10. Affirmed* (12)
11. Ruffian (35)
12. Swaps (20)
13. Forego (8)
14. Phar Lap (22)
15. Flightline
16. American Pharoah*
17. Buckpasser (14)
18. Damascus (16)
19. Round Table (17)
20. War Admiral* (13)
21. Tom Fool (11)
22. Colin (15)
23. John Henry (23)
24. Zenyatta
25. Regret (71)
26. Seabiscuit (25)
27. Whirlaway (26)
28. Sunday Silence (31)
29. Exterminator (29)
30. Cigar (18)
31. Nashua (24)
32. Arrogate
33. Alydar (27)
34. Easy Goer (34)
35. Ghostzapper
36. Curlin
37. Personal Ensign (48)
38. Alysheba (42)
39. Rachel Alexandra
40. Justify*
41. Bold Ruler (19)
42. Landaluce
43. Shared Belief
44. California Chrome
45. Gallant Man (36)
46. Tiznow
47. Equipoise (21)
48. Gun Runner
49. Gallant Fox* (28)
50. Sysonby (30)
51. Northern Dancer (43)
52. Assault* (33)
53. Armed (39)
54. Sir Barton* (49)
55. Omaha* (61)
56. Ack Ack (44)
57. Discovery (37)
58. Majestic Prince (46)
59. Arts and Letters (67)
60. Stymie (41)
61. Pan Zareta
62. Challedon (38)
63. Noor (69)
64. Skip Away (32)
65. Busher (40)
66. Gallorette (45)
67. Coaltown (47)
68. Sword Dancer (53)
69. Riva Ridge (57)
70. Grey Lag (54)
71. Devil Diver (55)
72. Dahlia (50)
73. All Along (68)
74. Invasor
75. Zev (56)
76. Ta Wee (80)
77. Twilight Tear (59)
78. Native Diver (60)
79. Holy Bull (64)
80. Precisionist
81. Inside Information (67)
82. Shuvee (70)
83. Twenty Grand (52)
84. Sham
85. Alsab (65)
86. Lady’s Secret (76)
87. Genuine Risk (91)
88. A.P. Indy
89. Silver Charm (63)
90. Susan’s Girl (51)
91. Cicada (62)
92. Go for Wand (72)
93. Slew o’ Gold (58)
94. Bald Eagle (74)
95. Exceller (96)
96. Wise Dan
97. Tim Tam
98. Top Flight (66)
99. Manila
100. Princess Rooney

*Triple Crown winner

CORRECTION

During the years that I have been making morning lines at Santa Anita (beginning in 2009) and at Del Mar (starting in 2020), racing official Charlie McCaul has been a huge help to me from the racing office at both tracks. Also, from time to time, McCaul has let me know when he has seen a mistake in my weekly Xpressbet.com blog. He spotted an error in last week’s blog.

When taking a look back at Flightline’s spectacular 19 1/4-length victory in Del Mar’s 2022 Pacific Classic, I wrote: “When starter Tucker Slender pushed the button to send the Pacific Classic runners on their way, Flightline was involved in a bit of bumping leaving the gate, but it was nothing significant. He then vied for the early lead without jockey Flavien Prat having to hustle him to do so.”

It actually was starter Jay Slender who pushed the button, not his father, retired starter Tucker Slender.

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THOROUGHBRED POLL

Below is the Top 10 in this week’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 296 Senor Buscador (19)
2. 268 Idiomatic (9)
3. 214 National Treasure (3)
4. 178 Master of The Seas (1)
5. 171 First Mission
6. 150 Adare Manor
7. 113 White Abarrio
8. 77 The Chosen Vron (1)
9. 48 Skippylongstocking
10. 47 Saudi Crown

TOP 10 IN THIS WEEK’S NTRA TOP THREE-YEAR-OLD POLL

This year’s NTRA Top Three-Year-Old will conclude next week following the Belmont Stakes.

Below is this week’s Top 10:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 309 Mystik Dan (24)
2. 283 Sierra Leone (3)
3. 271 Seize the Grey (4)
4. 180 Catching Freedom
4. 180 Forever Young
6. 169 Muth (1)
7. 127 Thorpedo Anna (1)
8. 68 Fierceness
9. 48 Nysos
10. 44 Resilience

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2024, 07:30 AM

Race of the Week: Saratoga's Ogden Phipps | Saturday, 6/8

June 5, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
We're coming off a $410 score in this space last week in Santa Anita's Honeymoon Stakes, so let's keep it rolling.

The Belmont Stakes Festival runs Thursday through Sunday at Saratoga, and all eyes will be on Saturday's close to the Triple Crown series. But a spectacular, 9-stakes lineup on that day also includes what easily could be considered the race of the year so far in the Breeders' Cup Distaff division with the Grade 1 Ogden Phipps. The 1-1/8 miles test goes as Race 7 of 14 on Belmont Stakes Day and should provide one heck of a halftime show.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners IDIOMATIC, PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS and RANDOMIZED bring elite-level resumes. SOUL OF THE SEA is a Grade 2 winner, while multiple Grade 3 winner RAGING SEA is Grade 1-placed. What a select lineup from 6 entrants.

Pace:
Rail-drawn RANDOMIZED has made the early lead in 7 of 8 starts and knows just one way to go. TIZZY IN THE SKY and IDIOMATIC will be in very close pursuit and could result in a hot pace despite the smaller field size.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-RANDOMIZED: First of 2 Chad Brown trainees in the field in what could be a huge week for the conditioner of Belmont Stakes favorite Sierra Leone. Second start since nearly wiring the Breeders' Cup Distaff, coming up a half-length short vs. Idiomatic in that neutral site matchup at Santa Anita. Disappointing when second in her Grade 2 Ruffian comeback against Soul of an Angel and will take them as far as she can on the front in search of a third career Saratoga stakes score (won '23 Wilton, Grade 1 Alabama).

#2-TIZZY IN THE SKY: Todd Pletcher rep wired the Top Flight at Aqueduct by 9 lengths last time, but will find the pace scenario here as difficult as it gets in terms of quality speed. All 4 career wins have come wire-to-wire and speed jockey Kendrick Carmouche famously prefers the front. He's a longshot to outlast the speed in this one.

#3-PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS: The 2023 Kentucky Oaks, Acorn and Test winner finished a no-match third behind Idiomatic in the '24 return race for both 5 weeks ago in Churchill's La Troienne. She had run out 10 consecutive races in her form cycle prior to the well-earned break from September through May and figures to improve in her second start back for trainer Brendan Walsh. He's a fantastic 25% winner "2OL" in these kind of form cycle moves. Still has something to prove against older fillies/mares, but you're going to see a much better effort than last time.

#4-SOUL OF AN ANGEL: South Florida-based mare makes her second spin for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., and her first road trip to New York was a rallying success in the Grade 2 Ruffian over Randomized. Pedigree suspect to have the same kick over 1-1/8 miles that she showed in that 1-turn mile at Aqueduct, though it's impossible to overlook the huge leap forward she made for Joseph after modest stakes and allowance career previously. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides, which never hurts, but often leads to an underlay price ... especially for a mare 24-1 in victory last time out.

#5-IDIOMATIC: Here 9: 8-0-1 season a year ago laid legitimate claim to Horse of the Year consideration and made her an obvious choice for Champion Older Mare. She's won from the lead, pressing and as far back as fifth, so she doesn't need a particular race set-up. Likely sits second/third here under regular rider Florent Geroux, who is a perfect 6-for-6 on her back in the current win streak. Training very well since the La Troienne and did win the Personal Ensign easily over this track and distance last summer.

#6-RAGING SEA: Book-ends the field for trainer Chad Brown and provides a late threat to the rail speedster Randomized. Returned from her light, 4-race sophomore season with an eye-catching win in Keeneland's Grade 3 Doubledogdare, a race that has since seen third-place finisher Scylla has come back to win twice at Churchill, including a graded stakes last weekend. Curlin filly broke her maiden here in 2022 and is a pure, 9-furlong type who gets a great pace set-up.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
IDIOMATIC has been nearly automatic and handles wet or dry conditions.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
No large prices expected to factor in the exacta, whiles tris and supers not recommended.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$50 Daily Doubles IDIOMATIC with VALENTINE CANDY and NASH in the Race 8 Woody Stephens ($100).

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-06-2024, 07:32 AM

Jeremy Plonk: 2024 Belmont Stakes Post Draw Reaction

June 3, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
Saturday’s 156th Belmont Stakes – to be run at historic Saratoga this year and next while Belmont Park continues its rebuild – attracted 10 runners at today’s post position draw, led by Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (post 3) and Preakness upsetter Seize the Grey (post 1). It’s the first Belmont showdown of opposing Triple Crown series winners since Orb and Oxbow in 2013 and just the eighth such occurrence since 1990. But it’s Kentucky Derby runner-up Sierra Leone (post 9) expected to be favored, pegged the 9-5 choice by NYRA oddsmaker David Aragona.

Horseplayers on the 1/ST BET and Xpressbet platforms can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on the Belmont Stakes if your win bet finishes second or third.

The pace of the 1-1/4 miles Belmont, shortened 440 yards from its usual 1-1/2 miles trip due to the track configuration at the Spa, figures to come from unbeaten Mindframe (post 10), wire-to-wire Preakness winner Seize the Grey and Remsen / Fountain of Youth front-running winner Dornoch (post 6). Seize the Grey drawing the rail obviously puts him right up into the mix once again if he breaks cleanly. Mindframe from the far outside gives the inside-outside early pace scenario that sometimes turns up the heat more than it appears on paper in the hustle to maintain and keep position.

Deep-closing Sierra Leone won’t be impacted by the starting position, but certainly would benefit from a fast early pace, as would Honor Marie (post 8), who exits a troubled trip in Louisville.

The Belmont Stakes Festival runs Thursday through Sunday at Saratoga, including a Friday card that features Kentucky Oaks heroine Thorpedo Anna in the Grade 1 Acorn for fillies. Saturday’s Belmont Stakes Day card gets underway at 10:45 am ET and features 9 graded stakes races. The undercard’s headliner is Breeders’ Cup Classic winner White Abarrio’s return in the $1 million Met Mile (Race 10).

//

Saratoga // Race 12 // 6:41 pm ET // $2 million Belmont Stakes // 1-1/4 miles

1-Seize the Grey (Jaime Torres // D. Wayne Lukas) 8-1
2- Resilience (Junior Alvarado // Bill Mott) 10-1
3-Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez Jr. // Kenny McPeek) 5-1
4-The Wine Steward (Manny Franco // Mike Maker) 15-1
5-Antiquarian (John Velazquez // Todd Pletcher) 12-1
6-Dornoch (Luis Saez // Danny Gargan) 15-1
7-Protective (Tyler Gaffalione // Todd Pletcher) 20-1
8-Honor Marie (Florent Geroux // Whit Beckman) 12-1
9-Sierra Leone (Flavien Prat // Chad Brown) 9-5
10-Mindframe (Irad Ortiz Jr. // Todd Pletcher) 7-2

//

Full Schedule: Belmont | Saturday, June 8, 2024

Race 1 | 10:45 am ET | allowance | start of pick 5
Race 2 | 11:18 am ET | allowance | start of pick 4
Race 3 |11:52 am ET | allowance | start of pick 5
Race 4 | 12:31 pm ET | True North Stakes | start of pick 4
Race 5 | 1:11 pm ET | Poker Stakes | start of pick 5
Race 6 | 1:51 pm ET | Suburban Stakes | start of pick 4
Race 7 | 2:36 pm ET | Ogden Phipps Stakes | start of pick 6
Race 8 | 3:22 pm ET | Woody Stephens Stakes | start of pick 5
Race 9 | 4:08 pm ET | Jaipur Stakes | start of pick 4
Race 10 | 4:52 pm ET | Metropolitan Handicap | start of pick 5
Race 11 | 5:36 pm ET | Met Mile | start of pick 4
Race 12 | 6:41 pm ET | Belmont Stakes
Race 13 | 7:27 pm ET | maiden
Race 14 | 7:02 pm ET | allowance

//

Special Wagers

Thursday-Friday Daily Doubles ($5 base, 18.5% takeout)
Belmont Gold Cup-New York Stakes

Thursday-Friday Pick 4 ($2 base, 24% takeout)
Belmont Gold Cup, Just A Game, Intercontinental, New York Stakes

Friday-Saturday Daily Doubles ($5 base, 18.5% takeout)
New York Stakes-Belmont Stakes
Acorn-Belmont Stakes
Intercontinental-Belmont Stakes
Just A Game-Belmont Stakes

Saturday Daily Double $5 base, 18.5% takeout)
Met Mile-Belmont Stakes

Friday-Saturday All Dirt Pick 6 ($1 base, 15% takeout)
Acorn (F), Suburban (S), Woody Stephens (S), Phipps (S), Met Mile (S), Belmont Stakes (S)

Friday-Saturday All Turf Pick 5 ($.50 base, 15% takeout)
Just A Game (F), New York (F), Poker (S), Jaipur (S), Manhattan (S)

Additional $3 Triple Play-All Turf Pick 3s offered daily

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:44 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Saratoga - 6/8/24-

June 8, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Saratoga “Prime Plays”
Saturday, June 8, 2024

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 10:45 ET Grade: B+
Prime Play: 3-General Partner
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: General Partner was scheduled to make his sophomore debut in an allowance race on Kentucky Derby day at Churchill Downs but was a late scratch and didn’t record an official breeze until nine days later. He should be fit and healthy enough to win today’s event, a one mile main track affair that should be well within his capabilities. The son of Speightstown earned big numbers during his juvenile campaign, so if he picks up where he left off the C. Brown trained first time Lasix user projects to lead from gate to wire. Among the notable performances during his 2-year-old season were a dominating maiden sprint win at Saratoga and a runner-up outing behind Timberlake in the Champagne S.-G1.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: A-
Prime Play: 7-Prince of Monaco
Backups/savers: 4-Valentine Candy; 1-Book’em Danno.

Forecast: Prince of Monaco makes his first start since finishing fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1 and while he was outrun and not terribly comfortable in that two turn event the son of Speightstown should return in peak form based on his outstanding sprint resume from last year and his superior series of recent workouts at Santa Anita. His pace-stalking/pressing style, which netted him two graded stakes victories in extended sprints at Del Mar last year, makes him perfectly suited for this seven furlong journey, as highlighted by his victory in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 and before that his easy score over stable mate Muth in the Best Pal S.-G1. Regular pilot F. Prat returns while Lasix is added for the first time, so at 7/2 on the morning line this high quality colt offers strong wagering value in the win pool and as a confident rolling exotic single.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 12: Post: 6:41 ET Grade: A-
Prime Play: 10-Mindframe
Backups/savers: 9-Sierra Leone

Forecast: Mindframe has won his first two starts in extraordinary fashion like a colt with championship aspirations., He’s been asked a tough question in the year’s edition of the Belmont Stakes-G1 but if he’s as good as he’s cracked up to be – and we believe he is – the son of Constitution can leap to the head of the class with a victory that appears well within his grasp. Extremely fast on speed figures despite not being asked for anything close to his best stuff in his firsts two outings, the T. Pletcher-trained colt projects to fold over from his outside draw and inherit an ideal stalking position that will provide him with every chance take control when given his cue. Favored Sierra Leone will provide elite competition. He’s won three of five starts and is two noses short of being undefeated due to trouble that was mostly of his own doing, but with a change of bit he has done none of that lugging in nonsense in recent workouts to provide hope that trainer C. Brown has gotten him literally straightened out. These are the two that we’ll hammer in the exotics, with preference on top to the new kind of the block, Mindframe.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:58 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/8/24

June 8, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Saturday, June 8, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 2-Bad Uncle Barry; 2-Broheim
Backups/savers: 2-Broheim.

Forecast: Bad Uncle Barry has been away since October but has trained like he’s fit and ready for M. Glatt, who has an exceptional record with layoff runners. The son of Good Magic is four years old now but still has time to become quite a useful race horse and showed last year that one turn grass racing might be his favorite thing to do. At this extended sprint distance he should be capable of tagging the speed close home. Broheim makes a trainer change from L. Mendez to M. McCarthy and seems certain to improve after breaking slowly and never threatening in a fast, highly rated main track sprint. The son of Not This Time has trained very well since his debut and with a clean start this time he should be on or near the lead throughout.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 1-Where’s the Loot; 4-Special Club.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: The winner of this first level allowance main track sprint almost certainly will be one of the two favorites. They’re tough to separate, but we’ll give the edge on top to Where’s the Loot, who overcame a poor start to prove tons the best in a maiden $50,000 dash last month. While this is a tougher assignment, the T. Yakteen should easily inherit the role as the controlling speed (assuming he breaks well this time) and have every chance to wire the field. Special Club returns to dirt (perhaps his preferred surface) and will be charging in the final furlong. He’s the likely favorite but ‘Loot is faster on figures and earned his number despite trouble.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 3: Post: 1:59 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 1-Respect the Crown; 4-Discrepancy; 3-Ace Ace Baby
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claiming $20,000 main track sprint for fillies and mares has nothing in it to embrace, so we’ll go three deep and hope that’s enough., Respect the Crown has been chasing tougher and should greatly appreciate this drop to the lower level. She’s never displayed much tactical speed, so she’ll need to find clear sailing from her rail post. Discrepancy is another dropping to the bottom and like our top pick tends to be sluggish during the early going, However, a repeat of her race before last – a solid second on grass with a career top speed figure – puts her in the thick of things. There is no guarantee she can do the same on dirt, though. Ace Ace Baby is yet another class dropper trying to find her proper level. She’s got some early speed and will take them as far as she can.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: City Exile (GB); 5-Ottoman Prince (IRE)
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: City Exile (GB) seems fairly solid in this allowance optional claimer over a mile on grass and should be set to regain his winning form after finishing a solid second in a similar affair over this course and distance last month. The Irish-bred gelding retains J. Hernandez and projects to enjoy an ideal stalking trip in a race that is likely to offer a moderate early pace. The “other D’Amato – Ottoman Price (IRE) - has been a bit of a disappointment so far in two local outings and has yet to master the art of changing leads but he continues to impress in the morning and probably is worth giving one more chance to.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: C
Main Ticket: 2-El Diablo Rojo; 6-Brutto.
Backups/savers: 7-Oil Can Knight.

Forecast: This bottom rung maiden $20,000 sprint looks like it belongs at Los Alamitos. El Diabolo has good recent form over the Santa Anita main track and is clearly the one to beat, though his overall record (38 starts, three wins) makes him difficult to trust, even against this lackluster band. He’s 3-1 on the morning line and would be okay at that price, but we have a hunch he’ll go lower. Britto always has liked the local dirt track, having finished first or second in five of seven starts. Plus, he did win his race before last in Orange County, so relatively speaking he’s in good form. Our best advice is to tread lightly.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 1-D’ Oro Dash
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: D’ Oro Dash finished a smart second behind subsequent stakes winner Wine Me Up in his only outing last summer at Del Mar. The Bolt d’Oro colt returns with a series of sharp team drills that should have him fit and ready. The switch to grass isn’t likely to be any issue for this first time Lasix using sophomore, who hails from a barn that has outstanding stats with layoff runners. If he breaks well from the rail, the M. Glatt-trained colt almost certainly will be on the lead and then he can take it from there.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: 4-Nothing Like You; 3-Show Card.
Backups/savers: 1-Jane Austen.

Forecast: The two B. Baffert-trained fillies can orchestrate this year’s edition of the Summertime Oaks-G2, a prestigious event for sophomores that only drew four entrants. Nothing Like You pulverized her foes in the recent Santa Anita Oaks-G2 and this is a slightly easier assignment, so top billing certainly will go to her. With stablemate (and noted front runner) Show Card drawn just to her inside in post three, J. Hernandez on the favorite seems likely to employ stalking tactics and allow her barn mate cut out the early fractions before engaging her at the appropriate time. ‘Card will be trying two turns for the first time – she should like it – and won’t give up without a fight. These are the two we’ll be using, but if you’d feel safer tossing in Jane Austen as a backup, feel free to do so.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: 8-Dream Princess; 4-Indy’s Star; 3-Madiha.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Here’s a messy starter optional claiming turf miler for fillies and mares that looks on paper to be chaotic, so you probably should spread as deeply as your budget allows. Dream Princess looks as good as any at 4-1 on the morning and arguably deserves a very slight edge on top after finishing second in a similar spot over this course and distance last time out. She retains J. Hernandez and is capable of winning on the lead or from a second flight, stalking position. Indy’s Star just outfooted our top pick in the aforementioned race while producing a good enough late kick to score with the help of the race shape. If she can turn in two like, the L. Powell-trained daughter of Honor Code will be quite dangerous once again. Madiha takes a class drop from Fran’s Valentine S. to this $32,000 claimer. She’s not particularly big on winning (three wins and a combined 10 seconds, and thirds) and is a little too one paced to be trusted but we suspect she’ll find a way to clunk up and at least get a part.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:45 PT Grade :C+
Main ticket: 4-Recalcitrant; 3-Big Celebration; 6-Eltonsingstheblues
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: There’s plenty of suspect early speed in here so let’s prefer those that have shown they can finish a bit. RecalcitrantBig Celebration probably will employ patient tactics as well and if she’s ready to fire off the bench – she’s been away since October – the daughter of Mr. Big could be a factor strong threat through the lane in her first start in a claimer. Eltonsingstheblues may be the best of the speed types but will be challenged early, often, and late. We’ll toss her in just in case she can shake loose early.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 10: Post: 5:40 PT Grade: C
Main ticket: 7-Ferrariano; 1-Carver
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Ferrariano was somewhat compromised by a sloppy start but then enjoyed a perfect trip and simply couldn’t seal the deal when tagged on the line in a similar moderate claiming event last month. This shortening to a mile probably is what he wants, so we’ll give him another chance in this restricted (nw-2) $32,000 seller. In his first start since December of 2022. Carver made the running before faltering when it mattered last month in a first level allowance turf miler. Maybe he needed the outing, but the fact that his connections are dumping him into a modest claimer indicates they’ve pretty much given up on him. Yet, from a pure pace standpoint and in a race lacking in closers, the J. Sadler-trained ridgeling must be given a look.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: The Battle of Lake Erie Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 8, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a loaded 16-race card with their signature event, the $200,000 Battle of Lake Erie as the headliner. The main event rolls in Race 11 which also starts the $1.00 Late Pick 4. The field for the Battle is deep in talent and the sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Bythemissal (2-1)-Made its season debut on 5-26, had the 8-hole in the Joe Auger Memorial at Phl and raced well but finished 5th. Ruthless Hanover finished first in 147.2, which is a great mile but not as good as last year's world record setting performance of 146.3. The point is, it wasn't a bad loss at all, and now Missal should be tuned up to post its 1st win of 2024. This race probably goes through the Ron Burke trainee who is a perfect 3 for 3 at Nfld.
3-Coaches Corner (12-1)-Per Engblom pupil is having a fine year and Jason Bartlett knows how to get the most out of him. Raced big in the Auger from post 7. Doesn't have great gate speed but seems to have a giant heart. Could surprise if the speed falters and Bartlett is in striking range. Is worth a swing at the morning line price, or close to it, and would use in gimmicks as well.
9-Desperate Man (4-1)-Will need to have some luck from the 2nd tier but the trip couldn't get much worse than in last. Raced huge in the Auger to get nosed out for 3rd after being parked 1st over just after the 1/4 pole. Didn't leave to protect position after starting from the rail and then pulled early but couldn't find a seat. In context Ruthless Hanover could be an odds-on choice in this filed with a reasonable post. So, it's best to not sleep on this 6-year-old who could land a decent seat and this time get a smooth trip.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

2-Beautiful Seaside (9/2)-Recent form has been dull but this is a spot to wake up at a price. This will be the 3rd start since a sick scratch. Has hit the board in 2 of 3 at Nfld with 2 pictures. Chris Page can provide a winning trip with this post draw.
6-Delightful Act N (6-1)-Has been in fine form even after drawing the 8 and 9 holes in 2 of the last 3 races. Hunter Myers
has the gate speed to blast out and land on the point or be no worse than in the pocket. Expecting a square price and an aggressive drive.
8-Strong Poison (5/2)-This will be its Nfld debut and will probably be bet down even from the 8-hole. Will be seeking its 3rd straight after wiring Open company at Scioto. This is the best horse, and will probably be difficult to tackle if takes to the oval.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Racing For Three (5/2)-Draws well and is a perfect 3 for 3 at Nfld. Likes to win in general, has taken 5 pictures in 12 tries in 2024. Should be out and rolling from the word go and is a main threat if pilot Trevor Smith does his job.
7-Hey Hey Mama (10-1)-Has big gate speed and should be tight enough after being used hard in last. That was the 1st start after a sick scratch and does good work at Northfield (7-5-1-1).

Race 14 (!0:46 Pm EST)

4-Noble Dale (9-1)-Shipped in from Scioto and raced from the back. Raced wide, still finished well, and should be fully engaged tonight. Elliott Deaton can work an efficient trip and be in the hunt at the wire.
5-Magic By The Sea (5/2)-Went off at 1/5 at ScD, went to the half in 54.3 and faded badly. Can make amends here but hasn't won at Nfld in 4 races. Could beat this bunch with a top effort and hopefully won't be over bet.
9-Heerz Popeye (7-1)-Downed the program chalk #5 by almost 7 lengths from the 10-hole last time. Needs some luck from the 2nd tier but the rail horse could leave. Can double up at good price if gets off the gate in good shape.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,3,9/2,6,8/2,7/4,5,9
Total Bet=$54

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race 7	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Late Daily Double
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $18,900 • Post: 3:35P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN OR CLAIMING SINCE MAY 8 ALLOWED 3 LBS. (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. MIDNIGHT ESCAPE is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LOFTY ADJUDICATOR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. MIDNIGHT ESCAPE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WELL CONNECTED: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30.
4	LOFTY ADJUDICATOR	2/1	4/1
1	MIDNIGHT ESCAPE	3/1	5/1
2	WELL CONNECTED	9/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	THATSAFACTJACK	3	6/1	Front-runner	89	87	92.2	74.6	67.1
5	CAJUN BROTHER	5	5/1	Front-runner	90	87	70.6	78.2	70.2
4	LOFTY ADJUDICATOR	4	2/1	Stalker	102	94	83.6	92.6	90.1
2	WELL CONNECTED	2	9/2	Stalker	92	90	79.6	86.0	79.5
1	MIDNIGHT ESCAPE	1	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	103	93	71.4	83.6	78.1
6	EL GAVILAN	6	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	69	77	83.9	41.3	27.8
7	FLY HOME	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	78	57.4	57.2	44.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill DownsPURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 3	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Allowance • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 93 • Purse: $127,000 • Post: 1:43P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OVER A MILE SINCE APRIL 8 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $35,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CURL GIRL is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CURL GIRL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. CATMIN T: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. TAKE SHAPE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	CURL GIRL	6/5	3/1
1	CATMINT	3/1	7/1
2	TAKE SHAPE	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	CURL GIRL	6	6/5	Alternator/Front-runner	94	93	87.2	91.1	88.1
1	CATMINT	1	3/1	Stalker	89	86	96.7	88.2	83.7
2	TAKE SHAPE	2	6/1	Stalker	86	91	70.6	80.7	73.7
3	PRETTY PROVOCATIVE	3	7/2	Trailer	86	79	89.4	83.6	76.1
4	CONDONE	4	8/1	Trailer	87	86	49.2	81.8	74.3
5	LIGHTBULB MOMENT	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	59	64.3	64.3	52.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Century Mile - Race #2 - Post: 4:15pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 78

Rating:

#2 LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR (ML=9/5)

LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR - A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a good race is a good sign. Although I sometimes have doubts about a pony who flopped as the favorite in his last race, this gelding got a solid speed figure and fits well here. This gelding garnered a good speed fig of 80 in his last event. That fig should be good enough to score this time. Came home in quick time in the last race. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MOONSHINE NOW (ML=3/1), #4 CASHLINGS (ML=4/1), #6 SIMMS (ML=6/1),

MOONSHINE NOW - The fourth place finish in the last race coming after the long breather is definitely not a positive signal. CASHLINGS - This gelding hasn't had any positive results in short distance contests in the last couple of months. The fig last race out doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the class figure of today's affair. Mark this mount as a likely underpriced equine. SIMMS - Speed figs of 69/65/60 are in motion on a downward course. This entrant ran a pedestrian speed rating last race out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely suffer defeat in today's race running that rating.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR - The TrackMaster Power Rating tells me that this fine animal looks good versus the rest of this field. I'm wagering.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 LIFESBEENGOODSOFAR to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:59 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Lone Star Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Optional Claiming - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $34500 Class Rating: 98

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MARCH 8, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 INTERSTELLAR 7/2
# 3 SPOILER 5/2
# 2 DON'TASK DON'TTELL 9/2

INTERSTELLAR looks to be a competitive contender. Has been running strongly lately and should be on the lead early on. Has been constatntly racing well recently. SPOILER - Will most likely compete solidly in the pace contest which bodes well with this field. Looks like a strong candidate for the exotics. DON'TASK DON'TTELL - Could provide positive returns based on formidable recent speed figures with an average of 94. Has respectable Equibase Class Figures relative to this field - worth a look.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 11:59 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Parx Racing - Race #1 - Post: 12:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $45,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#9 GREYHOUND STATION (ML=4/1)
#4 MOONLIT MAGIC (ML=6/1)
#10 BALENCIAGA BETTY (ML=10/1)

GREYHOUND STATION - Was in a $50,000 Maiden Claiming race at Churchill Downs last race out. That race had a class number of 78 and she is moving down in this race. A certain contender. Popular handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. Should run big today. MOONLIT MAGIC - Quite frequently, I play a maiden that finished in the place spot easily ahead of the show horse in her last race. Haddock rode this thoroughbred for the initial time last time around the track and comes right back in today's contest. Linder adds Lasix for the second time today. Could make the difference right here. BALENCIAGA BETTY - Horses that finish in the place spot in Maiden races and finish well in front of the show horse are generally good bets next time out. This filly is in fine physical condition, having run a nice race on May 18th, finishing second. I think this filly is ready to run a good one. She's had enough races since the vacation and should be fit.

Vulnerable Contenders: #12 ON ANOTHER LEVEL (ML=7/2), #1 BIG DREAMER (ML=5/1),

ON ANOTHER LEVEL - Can't play this chalk horse off the extended vacation. BIG DREAMER - Finished fourth last time. Would have to advance to be on the board in today's race. Tough to support any less than sharp equine in a sprint event if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last sixty days.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 GREYHOUND STATION to win if we can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,9,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,9,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,9,10] with [4,9,10] with [4,6,7,9,10] with [4,6,7,9,10] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-08-2024, 12:00 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $22500 Class Rating: 81

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 NO CAP 6/5
# 3 CLARINA 3/1
# 1 CANDY LITZ 5/1

NO CAP has a very strong shot to take this race. Displays the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 81 speed figure which is one of the top in this field. Ought to be given consideration for this event if only for the quite good speed figure put up in the last outing. Has been travelling in the most competitive company of the group recently. CLARINA - Has quite good Equibase speed figs and has to be considered for a wager in here. Will most likely come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved speedily to the front end recently. CANDY LITZ - Investors using horses with this rider and handler duo have done solidly lately. Looks decent versus this field and should be one of the leaders.