Sunday 6/9/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:15 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know - Santa Anita - 6/9/24

June 9, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Sunday, June 9, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Video

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 1-Rose Maddox
Backups/savers: 2-Yerwanthere.

Forecast: Rose Maddox generally is considered a late-running sprint specialist, but her route form actually is quite good as well. Never worse than second in four starts over this one mile trip, the veteran daughter of Grazen is solid on numbers, lands the good rail, and always has been genuine and dependable. There should be enough early speed signed on to compliment her style, so at 5/2 on the morning line we’ll make her a win play and main push in rolling exotics play.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 2: Post: 1:32 PT Grade: C+-
Main Ticket: Shes Just Fluffy; 3-Keychain Girl
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Shes Just Fluffy broke her maiden in her second career start for $50,000 over this track and distance last September but then disappeared. She returns in a nw-3 $20,000 seller, which is one condition above what she’s eligible for, but we’ll assume the softer nw-2 for this this level wasn’t written or simply didn’t fill. The bottom line is that the barn is strong with layoff runners, so there’s a reasonable expectation that the S. Miyadi-trained filly will pick up where she left off in a race that came up quite weak. Keychain Girl held on to defeat a restricted $16,000 field last month but did so with a final furlong that barely shaded 15 seconds. The speed figure will need to be improved to produce a repeat score at this level.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 3: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Dr. Soulfire; Johnny Drama; 2-Habeas.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Dr. Soulfire is a first-off-the-claim play for trainer S. Knapp (solid stats with this angle) and based on his sharp recent win and today’s lackluster competition the veteran gelding looks set for a repeat despite the raise in class. He’s most effective when held up early and cut loose late, and with U. Rispoli staying aboard he appears to be a solid top pick. Johnny Drama was a vet scratch out of a race May 17 and he didn’t breeze again until June 2, so there’s a condition question surrounding the son of Goldencents, who hasn’t raced for more than two months but has form that is good enough to win at this level over a course that he clearly likes (two wins in four starts). Drawn comfortably outside in the field of six, he’s guaranteed a soft stalking trip while being reunited with “win rider” A. Fresu. Habeas moves up in class after being nosed out in a dirt sprint for $20,000 last month. Turf has never being his thing, but you have to run in the races they write, so here he is.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 4: Post: 2:37 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: 5-We’ll Do It Live; 4-Dorie Miller
Backups/Savers: 6-Satellite Heart.

Forecast: We’ll Do It Live isn’t particularly fast on numbers but she has consistent recent form that includes a moderate score at this level last month. She looks like the controlling speed and this abbreviated sprint distance fits her fine. In the frame in five of six starts over the local main track (with two wins), she’s a trustworthy sort who will take them as far as she can. On pure numbers, Dorie Miller is clearly a major contender, though her lack of tactical speed in a bit concerning. She’ll be doing her best work late.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 5: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: Apple Fest; 8-Jai Ho
Backups/savers: 4-Irish Rose

Forecast: Apple Fest shows up in a maiden claimer for the first time and numbers earned over this turf course when facing tougher foes earlier this season make her quite dangerous at 6-1 for the always-potent B. Baffert/J. Hernandez team. With a clean break she’ll inherit an ideal ground saving, stalking trip and have every chance to earn a diploma against the softest field she’s ever faced. Jai Ho was odds-on at this level last month but packed it in under pressure in the final furlong and wound up a highly disappointing fourth. Perhaps she will improve in her first start off the claim for S. Knapp and maybe patient tactics, which she might prefer, will be employed.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 6: Post: 3:41 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 5-Tom Horn; 1-Disobey
Backups/savers: 3-Soul of Midnight.

Forecast: Tom Horn stumbled badly at the start, lost all chance, and was never knocked about when off the board at this first level state-bred level in his first outing since last summer at Del Mar, so we’ll draw a line through the race and give him another chance. Speed figures that were earned last year are good enough win if repeated, so we’ll put him on top and hope for better luck. Disobey will be gunned from the rail to make the running and if can shake loose early the lightly raced son of Mineshaft could be dangerous. He’s been sparingly raced throughout his career but on his best day – especially with the return to six furlongs – he’s right there with these.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Man Among Men
Backups/savers: 4-Crosby Beach; 2-Maltese Falcon.

Forecast: Man Among Men is five years old with only five career starts, but his most recent win against a lesser non-winners of two field was fast and visually impressive, so this son of War Front may be capable of scoring right back despite the required class hike. The R. Mandella-trained horse has excellent tactical speed and can kick it in late but must show that this prototypical miler can be just as effective at a mile and one quarter. At least he’s bred for it.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 8: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: Mc Vay
Backups/savers: 3-Parenting.

Forecast: We’re not sure what quite got into him, but Mc Vay was stunning in his recent maiden win that produced by far a career top and stakes worthy speed figure, and if he can duplicate that performance in this year’s renewal of the Affirmed Stakes he’ll be really hard to beat. Perhaps the torrid fast pace in that race, which greatly complimented his closing style, made him look better than he is, but after being pitched too high in a series of graded stakes races his confidence-building maiden victory should lead to bigger and better things.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
RACE 9: Post: 5:17 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: Highplainsdrifter
Backups/savers: 11-Keep It Coming; 8-Charley Pride.

Forecast: Highplainsdrifter ran much better than the line will show in his only start exactly one year ago over this course and distance when running into traffic and losing his best chance through the lane. Unfortunately, the M. Puype-trained gelding then had to be sent home. If returns as well as he left – and as a first time gelding he probably will - the son of Mr. Big absolutely can run with this group and at 6-1 on the morning offers a good gamble. K. Desormeaux was aboard in that race, rides him back, and the work tab is steady if not noteworthy. We’re expecting a major effort.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:15 AM

Al Cimaglia: Running Aces Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 9, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Running Aces has a 12-race card with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 9. The sequence has a $3,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (8:40 PM EST)

4-My Friskie Boy (4-1)-Got a pocket ride in last and made the most of it to draw off by over 4 lengths. Got an efficient trip but won't downplay the win and the same trip is a possibility again. It was the 1st start in a month since shipping in from CalX and might be even better tonight
6-Rockinscience (6-1)-Has raced on a sloppy track in 2 of the 3 last starts and still came away with one picture. Jacob Cutting could provide a winning steer if he gets a close-up seat off the gate.

Race 10 (9:00 PM EST)

2-Picoso (3-1)-Likes to race near the top of the stack and Cutting should have no problem working that trip. Looks like a main player and a dry track would help.
6-PD's Gabriel (6-1)-Makes the 3rd start for the Johnson barn and couldn't connect after having the rail in the other races. Todd Warren is at the controls my take is he will come off cover and not look to land on the point. Expecting improvement in the 3rd start off a sick scratch.

Race 11 (9:20 PM EST)

3-Grab Da Moni (9/2)-Moved up to this level in the 2nd race in town and raced well leaving from post 7. But broke at the start last time, and that happens from time to time. Should offer a square price and be forwardly placed off the gate. Could surprise with a sharp steer and if minds its manners.
4-Never Mind N (7/2)-Took charge early on and didn't look back in last. This veteran may have liked racing on a sloppy track last week. But he may have also gotten acclimated to this surface after shipping in from HoP. Could double up at a fair price and may not have come with his best race yet.

Race 12 (9:40 PM EST)

3-California Rock (6-1)-This 8-year-old could show some gate speed at this level. Will look for an aggressive steer by Svendsen. Could land on the point and not look back.
5-Stick With Cramer (3-1)-Was used hard from post 7 and did land on the point but the trip took its toll. Makes its 4th start at Aces and gets some post relief. Luke Plano could work a less taxing trip and that could be the winning difference.

0.50 Late Pick 4

4,6/2,6/3,4/3,5
Total Bet=$8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:17 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #4

#1 Blue Squall	There are more likely winners in here, but I'm hoping the price is fair with a handful of potential forward players who might flash some speed and cross in front of her. Cozy inside cutback trip?
#7 Emery	Her debut score last year sent her right into Grade I company where she was fourth behind the eventual Breeders' Cup winner, and it's tough to poke holes in the super-sharp comeback score at Keeneland. The one to beat.
#5 Legadema	She has put together a couple nice wins in a row, but I worry that her ceiling isn't quite as high as a couple of the others in here. In the mix.
Race Summary	Blue Squall turns back after failing to stay late going long in Oaklawn stakes company in April, and she might find a good spot while covered up early.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#5 Rocketeer	Hoping he still has a little upside after just the first two starts, as I think one more move forward would put him in the picture with the tough player drawn outside of him.
#6 Nash	He's probably supposed to win this after the good run in the Pat Day Mile behind the next-out Preakness winner, and he has handled two turns OK in the past.
#4 West Saratoga	Still a little surprised he was only 22/1 in the Derby, but gets back into a more reasonable spot today and has landed some underneath shares in a couple decent spots. For a piece.
Race Summary	Rocketeer could still have room to improve with just two races under his belt, and he should be in a great spot for another first-over trip.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#10 Mission River	Nothing wrong with the way he's coming into this on paper, and he draws well for a first-timer with some room to sort things out from the outside. Get a look at him.
#5 River Ridge	Price might be OK here despite the decent Tampa and Hawthorne form, and he might be a bit better fit with these than it looks at first glance.
#9 Sahalat	He looks like one of the ones as he finally puts two races together for the first time here in his 5-year-old season. Well drawn to pick a spot.
Race Summary	Mission River goes first time out for a barn that typically does good work with this kind, and he's got the fashionable kind of pedigree that wins a lot of races.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:17 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Emerald Downs

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta $.10 Superfecta / $.50 Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) $.50 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 3:49P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN RACES, CLAIMING RACES AND STARTERS RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). WASHINGTON BRED CLAIMING PRICE $6,250.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * RESERVOIR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top thr ee in TrackMaster Power Rating. OLIVIAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MEAN SHARON: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse's average winning dis tance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). DON'T TELL HYDEE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface .
6	RESERVOIR	3/1	5/1
3	OLIVIAN	7/2	6/1
2	MEAN SHARON	6/1	7/1
4	DON'T TELL HYDEE	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	OLIVIAN	3	7/2	Front-runner	79	79	89.0	61.0	54.5
2	MEAN SHARON	2	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	76	72	75.0	69.8	62.3
6	RESERVOIR	6	3/1	Stalker	77	78	80.5	69.0	64.5
4	DON'T TELL HYDEE	4	5/2	Stalker	76	71	59.8	65.0	58.5
1	KERRYGOLD LADY	1	9/2	Trailer	80	74	62.0	69.0	64.0
5	LUVAHAPPYENDING	5	5/1	Trailer	75	72	49.3	63.6	52.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:18 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Coast To CoastPURCHASE

Coast To Coast - Race 5	Race 7 from Santa Anita Leg E of the Coast to Coast Pick 5
Optional Claiming $80,000 • 1 1/4 Miles • Downhill Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 106 • Purse: $57,000 • Post: 7:13P
SA - R7 - (RAIL AT 10 FEET). RACE 7 FROM SANTA ANITA. DOWNHILL TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER AT A MILE OR OVER ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * MALTESE FALCON (IRE): Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. LIVING LIFE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CROSBY BEACH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DEAN MARTINI: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
2	MALTESE FALCON (IRE)	7/2	9/2
1	CARMELITA'S MAN	8/1	7/1
7	LIVING LIFE	5/1	7/1
4	CROSBY BEACH	3/1	8/1
3	DEAN MARTINI	12/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	DEAN MARTINI	3	12/1	Front-runner	108	105	108.2	102.0	93.5
5	CALM SEA	5	4/1	Front-runner	105	102	107.6	102.6	91.6
4	CROSBY BEACH	4	3/1	Front-runner	109	104	101.0	105.4	101.9
6	MAN AMONG MEN	6	4/1	Front-runner	103	99	98.5	95.1	86.6
8	HUDSON RIDGE	8	12/1	Stalker	102	104	94.6	98.5	85.0
7	LIVING LIFE	7	5/1	Trailer	106	105	86.0	99.4	88.4
2	MALTESE FALCON (IRE)	2	7/2	Trailer	105	105	84.2	102.6	98.6
1	CARMELITA'S MAN	1	8/1	Trailer	108	103	84.2	100.8	93.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:18 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Optional Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $41,500 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#3 SUNDAY BLING (ML=8/1)
#6 BOBBY BRINKLEY (ML=7/5)
#2 CHAMPAGNE STOOPER (ML=5/2)
#7 BLING MOUNTAIN (ML=8/1)

SUNDAY BLING - The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. This gelding is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Caldwell. BOBBY BRINKLEY - This jock/trainer duo has been producing a very lucrative ROI, right at +80. A thoroughbred coming back this quickly after a sharp outing is a good sign. CHAMPAGNE STOOPER - The recent speed fig of 90 is the best last race fig in the field. BLING MOUNTAIN - State bred races are generally easier than 'open' company, and this gelding's move into the 'state bred' class today should make him tough in here. Nice return on investment for this rider and handler duo.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 VIETNAM VICTORY (ML=4/1),

VIETNAM VICTORY - This gelding finished off the board on January 14th and wasn't even close in the last race either. This runner ran a somewhat easily forgotten speed rating last time out. He shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat in today's race running that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - BOBBY BRINKLEY - This gelding just raced on June 1st. I'm betting on him today and advise you to do the same.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 SUNDAY BLING is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:18 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Trial - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 69

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS ACCREDITED WYOMING BREDS. WEIGHT . 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 9 RUNAWAY DYNASTY 7/2
# 1 BANQUET 20/1
# 5 MONDAY MORNIN MERLE 5/2

My selection in this event is RUNAWAY DYNASTY. Should be given consideration given the sire numbers TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. Is a solid choice - trainer has sported quite good numbers for two year olds with some good returns for investors. Canales has a strong winning percentage with horses racing in short races. BANQUET - Should definitely be given consideration against this group of horses in this race based solely on pedigree numbers. Deserves a try with one of the most respectable sires on the grounds. MONDAY MORNIN MERLE - Prominent in earnings per start at the distance/surface in this lot. He will almost certainly show competitive support based on trainer figures which can be very important in two-year old races. One of the top sire stats in this 2 year old group with a sold ROI of +16.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Santa Anita

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $34000 Class Rating: 79

FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 9 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $32,000, IF FOR $28,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 DORIE MILLER 3/1
# 3 DEFICIT MAJA 4/1
# 5 WE'LL DO IT LIVE 2/1

DORIE MILLER looks solid to best this field. Should best this group here, showing very strong figs of late. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is formidable for this animal. Has to be considered in here if only for the very strong Equibase speed fig posted in the last contest. DEFICIT MAJA - Has some interesting angles which make this entrant a play. Look for this animal to be close at the finish versus these mounts. WE'LL DO IT LIVE - Bonde has her trained solidly to break promptly out of the starting gate. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in this race in her last contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2024, 08:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Golden Gate Fields - Race #1 - Post: 1:50pm - Starter Allowance - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $16,500 Class Rating: 90

Rating:

#3 COWBOY KISSES (ML=8/1)
#4 GALLAND DE BESOS (ML=3/1)
#5 GOLDENSUNRISE (ML=9/5)

COWBOY KISSES - This one has recorded the best recent turf speed fig at the distance and surface. I am keen on that last race on May 12th at Golden Gate Fields where he finished third. This gelding earned a nice speed fig of 91 in his last race. That speed figure should be lofty enough to prove victorious today. This gelding has plenty of ability on the turf. Could be long gone by the time they hit the stretch. GALLAND DE BESOS - I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. You have to like this horse changing from dirt to turf for the first time. He finished on the board on a sluggish dirt track on March 9th. A sign he may take to turf. Gelding took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. GOLDENSUNRISE - This speedy sort should profit from this shorter distance. This jock and trainer have a positive return on investment when they join forces. I'm focusing on the class of this race horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 REGAL PATRIOT (ML=7/5),

REGAL PATRIOT - I usually try to beat these types of probable favorites off the long layoff. He's likely going to get cooked up front.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#3 COWBOY KISSES is the play if we get odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass