Monday 6/10/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:38 PM

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 10, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The 0.50 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 8, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8 (9:20 PM EST)

2-C-Bet Hanover (4-1)-Recent form has been good and picked up a win at YR and at M1. Steps up and might be overlooked. Will respect chances, can get a similar trip and winning 3 straight isn’t out of the question. Will fade #3 Air Force Hanover who is 8/5 in the morning line and that feels like an underlay.
4-Eminem Hanover (8-1)-Drops to a more competitive level and Brent Holland has some gate speed to use. Could leave and get the jump on others and the price is right to take a swing.
6-Arden Messi N (12-1)-Drops to a winnable level but needs a sharp drive. This could be a spot for Joe B to stalk and then take advantage of a quick pace. Time will tell if looking for prices in this leg was the right strategy.

Race 9 (9:40 PM EST)

5- Gamblingterror (9/2)-Raced well versus better to come a close 2nd coming off an injured scratch. Not really feeling any of the others in this field, and sometimes it’s best to not over think. Should be a major player, comes back in sequence and hopefully the ML price holds up.

Race 10 (10:00 PM EST)

5-Laz (5/2)-Has been in sharp form in the last 3 races and those were versus this kind. Makes the 1st start off a claim by the DiDomenico barn. Will likely be good again but might be bet down.
7-Human Cocktail (6-1)-Wired this type in last but that was from the 4-hole. Drawing post 7 helps the price and there isn't a lot of gate speed inside. Might not land on the point but should get a close-up seat and that could be enough for a picture.

Race 11 (10:20 PM EST)

1-This Is The Plan (2-1)-Drops and with this post draw it is difficult to leave off the ticket. Also using because there were price shots taken in earlier legs. But can't completely trust so will use 2 others.
2-Hunters Hero (4-1)-Will toss last from the 8-hole at this level. Will need a strong effort to win and usually does well with a cozy trip. Should get that tonight and could roll by down the lane.
7-Leonidas A (8-1)-Well, on the drop it does make some sense to use at this price. Could pop if gets a sharp steer. The days of getting respect because of back class has passed for me, at least versus this kind.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

2,4,6/5/5,7/1,2,7
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:39 PM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2

#1 Xerces	She has never been much, but she showed a little life last time out and is worth another look on the move around two turns despite a flat try in her only previous route effort. Could plug along to land this.
#7 Lady's Chant	She had one-paced tactical speed in her local debut last time around, and she could be in line for a similar kind of trip from out here today. One of the ones.
#3 Last Glimmer	She has been in some much deeper spots than she's going to find today while racing for a tag for the first time, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see her stack up well with this bunch.
Race Summary	Xerces might offer an OK price while stretching out today, and I'll take her last at face value and hope she is set to find her best form over the local footing.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #6

#10 Alpha Cat	That one-paced effort was a step in the right direction last out, but he still has some proving to do with only those two dull running lines on the page from Aqueduct. Think he'll be an OK fit with the local crew in what does not feel like the deepest route special weight we're going to see all summer.
#3 Streamsong	He didn't miss by much when getting his feet over this surface for the first time, and something similar probably keeps him in the frame right back. Think the race flows well for him.
#2 Cash Bail	Would like to see him settle and make one run in a spot where there are a few potential forward players and a little cheap pace lined up.
Race Summary	Alpha Cat is worth a look while making his local debut, and the price might be OK to see if he likes it here. Think it might come down to the top pair.

Presque Isle Downs - Race #8

#1 Gruit	Taking a swing in the finale with this guy. He ran....not bad...in those first two starts last season before his form went sour for the rest of the meet, and maybe he'll rediscover whatever his better form is while racing fresh again today. Clunks along late?
#5 Emma at the Gate	Guessing he can come forward off the debut run, but I'm a little worried about the potential race flow that might favor someone with a more proven rating gear. Upside today.
#9 Change the Hour	He makes a lot of sense on form, but he's really short on excuses at this point in time, figures to offer another modest price, and might have his hands full with a couple other pace and chasing types lined up. Not for me at something like the ML offering.
Race Summary	Not sure how excited you're supposed to get about the running lines from most of these, and the two who seem most capable on paper might be caught up in at least a mild early battle. Gruit can save ground and rally at a price?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:39 PM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Louisiana Downs - Race #1

#1 OUR DETERMINATION (2-1)	Enters high-percentage claim barn off easy maiden win up front.
#3 GUTZY (5-2)	First non-allowance try on the main track in a long time, rallies to complete exacta.
#5 LETMIKEFIGUREITOUT (6-1)	Seized the moment after the favorite ran into trouble at Fair Grounds.
Race Summary	OUR DETERMINATION controlled the pace and drew away from the second favorite to break his maiden after a runner-up finish at Fair Grounds to launch his career. The interior fractions stacked up okay for that day’s races and he gets the repeat nod for a win and place wager as today’s Best Bet.

Louisiana Downs - Race #2

#7 LIFE ON THE NILE (7-2)	Lands in ideal spot for barn in the midst of 10-for-24 streak.
#8 BIG FIG (8-1)	Couldn’t sustain middle move as the beaten favorite on drop to this level.
#4 RUN SMITTY RUN (9-2)	Towers over field on best, vet voided claim in the fall, fired blank in return.
Race Summary	LIFE ON THE NILE led for 6F in three of his last four route attempts but couldn’t hold on. He should get the jump on his main rivals despite the cutback to a long sprint. He has been a big money burner, but can cash in for a victory today. Bet to win and place and play a 7,8/4,7,8/ALL trifecta.

Louisiana Downs - Race #4

#6 CCED FOR STEPH (5-2)	Returns to winning level, pressed sharp rival at Evangeline.
#1 SHE’SMYSMOKESHOW (6-1	Plays to a steady beat at various sprint distances, use in gimmicks.
#3 CADEAU DE PAIX (3-1)	Won the duel but got caught by the favorite at 6-1/2F in local bow.
Race Summary	CCED FOR STEPH won from on and off the pace at Fair Grounds to become the only two-race winner in the field this year. She chased two-time allowance winner She Has It All (3-9, $82k) at Evangeline Downs last out but lacked late kick. She is a strong bet from a favorable post to win for the first time at 5-1/2F. Play 6-1 and 6-3 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:42 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 5	Win / Place / Show / Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double / Pick 3 (.50 Minimum) Pick 4 (.50 Minimum)
Maiden Claiming $20,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-6 • CR: 51 • Purse: $22,593 • Post: 5:48P
FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * NATUSIA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. SHESGOTSPIRIT: Today is a sprint and t his is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NATIVE QUEEN: Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
5	NATUSIA	9/5	3/1
7	SHESGOTSPIRIT	3/1	3/1
4	NATIVE QUEEN	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	NATIVE QUEEN	4	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	52.6	17.2	7.7
5	NATUSIA	5	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	67	53	45.8	36.3	33.3
7	SHESGOTSPIRIT	7	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	51	60	33.4	41.2	36.7
6	CANADIAN JANE	6	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	11	54.3	12.0	3.5
3	SHE'S SOLID SILVER	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	41.5	15.1	9.1
1	R N B BABY	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.6	15.2	4.7
2	REVENANT	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	24.6	16.1	4.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:42 PM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Special WagerPURCHASE

Special Wager - Race 1	Leg 1 of the Horseshoe Turf Pick 3
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $40,000 • Post: 4:14P
IND - R5 - (RAIL AT 12 FEET). FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. SARGENT HULKA is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * J'S NAUGHTY BOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. GOLDDIGGENDEVIL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. MON UMENTALJUSTICE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. BLACK WHITE N GOLD: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. SARGENT HULKA: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
2	J'S NAUGHTY BOY	6/1	6/1
8	GOLDDIGGENDEVIL	4/1	7/1
1	MONUMENTALJUSTICE	5/2	7/1
6	BLACK WHITE N GOLD	3/1	8/1
5	SARGENT HULKA	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BACKYARD JUSTICE	7	9/2	Front-runner	80	74	70.2	74.4	65.4
6	BLACK WHITE N GOLD	6	3/1	Front-runner	82	79	64.5	70.2	59.2
4	TACKLIN FUEL	4	30/1	Front-runner	41	58	37.6	37.6	23.1
5	SARGENT HULKA	5	7/2	Stalker	75	71	80.0	71.4	60.4
1	MONUMENTALJUSTICE	1	5/2	Trailer	81	76	77.4	69.7	65.2
2	J'S NAUGHTY BOY	2	6/1	Trailer	88	81	56.8	75.3	68.8
8	GOLDDIGGENDEVIL	8	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	82	77	35.1	67.3	63.3
3	LOONY	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	72	73	49.0	41.6	31.1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:42 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Presque Isle Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $15000 Class Rating: 61

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 7 LADYS CHANT 5/2
# 3 LAST GLIMMER 3/1
# 2 UPTOWN CAT 3/1

I've got to go with LADYS CHANT. Should go to the lead and may never look back. Must be given consideration based on the respectable speed rating posted in the last contest. Has to be carefully examined against this field displaying formidable figs recently and an average speed figure of 58 under similar conditions. LAST GLIMMER - Should be given consideration here on the basis of the numbers in the speed department alone. Martinez has been hot the last month, winning at a nifty 21 percent rate. UPTOWN CAT - I like the jockey on this filly - decent chance to win the race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:42 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Mountaineer Park - Race #6 - Post: 9:05pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,900 Class Rating: 54

Rating:

#2 TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK (ML=8/1)

TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK - Stalking speed. My sidekicks and I like this thoroughbred. Last out, this one was in a race at Mountaineer Park in a race with an Equibase class figure of 66. Dropping drastically in class figure this time out puts her in a solid position in today's race. Should do well in this event. Weight shift of -7 from May 5th race at Mountaineer Park.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 HERE COMES LOVIE (ML=1/1), #6 RED ROSEBUSH (ML=8/5),

HERE COMES LOVIE - Hasn't raced or had any morning activity since May 5th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. RED ROSEBUSH - A strong thoroughbred that's been running well, but she's been off the track in the mornings of late. Don't think this horse will make an impact in today's race. That last speed rating was quite unimpressive when compared with today's class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #2 TWELVEO'CLOCKROCK to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:43 PM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 5:20pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 71

Rating:

#3 CADEAU DE PAIX (ML=3/1)

CADEAU DE PAIX - This mare is in exceptional condition right now. Ran second last out and comes back promptly. This equine is number one in earnings per race. She looks nice in today's clash.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 CCED FOR STEPH (ML=5/2), #2 OOCHIE (ML=7/2), #1 SHE'SMYSMOKESHOW (ML=6/1),

CCED FOR STEPH - The Brain always cautions me to keep away from ponies in short distance affairs that haven't finished in the money in sprint affairs lately. This morning-line choice hasn't been to the track in awhile. No morning activity since last race. OOCHIE - A pattern of deteriorating speed figs 66/60/48 for this runner. SHE'SMYSMOKESHOW - The finish position of fourth in the last race shows me that this animal may be going off form.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #3 CADEAU DE PAIX to win if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2024, 01:43 PM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $29700 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OPTIONAL OR OHIO BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 10 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 10 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 KEY TO SUCCESS 2/1
# 3 OAXACA 7/2
# 4 LIBERTY BELLE 6/1

KEY TO SUCCESS could be the bet in here. Shows strong speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group. Could beat this group of animals given the 88 speed fig garnered in her last outing. With a sound 77 average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. OAXACA - Aviles has a winning percentage of 20 over the last month. Aviles will almost certainly be able to get this mare to break out early here. LIBERTY BELLE - She has recorded quite good numbers under today's conditions and will probably fare well versus this group. This mare obviously likes the distance, going 3 out of 18 in her races recently.