Wednesday 6/12/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #3

#2 Run Jalen Run	Think he'll be the right one today and finally earn the graduation win, as he's got pace near the inside to prompt the other main contender drawn on the fence.
#1 Capital Connection	He has a little bit of pace that might force him to try to go from the inside today, but he doesn't typically finish his races with a whole lot of punch in the stretch call, so I think the top choice is going to have a few key advantages.
#5 Gagliardi	The press-and-fade turf route run might have him set for something better while turning back on the main track. Capable team makes this one dangerous, but I am not sure the price is going to reflect the outstanding questions.
Race Summary	Run Jalen Run and Capital Connection seem like the right pair, but I think the former should get a perfect pressing trip to put away the latter, and there doesn't appear to be a whole lot of serious finishing punch to come get them late.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#7 Super Corinto	He's not the most likely winner in here, but I think he's capable of something a lot better while making his second start of the season while getting some significant class relief on the drop out of Grade II company. Could be set for better.
#4 Salute the Stars	He can be a handful while dropping out of graded stakes company, and he was 4.90-1 in the Grade I Haskell last summer, so he has been logical with much tougher in the past. Better today.
#1 Classic Catch	Price might be OK today as he makes his third start off the bench after a modest kind of run last out, but he got a wide trip that day behind a tough winner in Hit Show, and he might be capable of something better today.
Race Summary	Super Corinto has some appeal while trying this softer bunch -- his last two races have been in the 2023 Dubai World Cup and the 2024 Grade II New Orleans Classic, so it wouldn't be a big surprise to see him wake up against these.

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#4 Bettera	Wonder if he might be worth a midrange price look while stepping up off the claim. He ran a pretty good one against cheaper last out and should be in line for another great spying trip. Overlooked?
#3 Trumptastic	Mild worry that he's starting to head in the wrong direction after a modest kind of run for twice this tag at 2.26-1, but his better stuff obviously fits with this group. I don't know....
#2 Macaw	Toyed with having him on top here, as he showed some pace in the debut with cheaper that suggests he should be right up on the splits again today while adding a furlong. Claimed with purpose?
Race Summary	Bettera might be a little cheap, but I think he exited a couple decent special weight tries prior to that run last out and could be be better fit than his price suggests.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#4 ASPIRING COMEDIAN (8-5)	Takes magnified class drop, returns to dirt, best effort wins it.
#3 DOWNPATRICK (12-1)	Roughed up off layoff with first-time Lasix, could make gimmick wagers pay.
#7 CLEVER TIGER (7-2)	Regrouped after traffic trouble, got beat a length when last seen in November.
Race Summary	ASPRING COMEDIAN gets in light-weighted for his third start with Lasix, third start as a gelding and third start this year. He was no factor for $30k on Keeneland’s synthetic surface against the likes of 4-1 firster Drunken Sailor and next-out allowance runner-up Patch O’Brien, but he figures tough if he stays in closer contact early. Bet to win and place and play 4-3 and 4-7 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #5

#1 ROUNDTOP (2-1)	Met eventual stakes winners last fall, strictly the one to beat with Lasix in return.
#4 MAJOR MACK (6-1)	Can carry his speed a long way if he handles the transition to the lawn.
#5 SUMMER SOLIDER (4-1)	Clement firster worked in Florida and New York; dam was stakes-placed on turf as 2yo.
Race Summary	ROUNDTOP rallied for minor awards in a pair of longer grass routes to start his career last fall. He gets Lasix for his seasonal debut and gets upgraded after facing eventual Grade 3 winner Neat (4-7, $353k) and turf stakes winner Fulmineo (9/2-4-1, $179k). Bet to win and place on today’s Best Bet.

Delaware Park - Race #7

#6 MR MOX (4-1)	Knocking on winning door at this level, exits fast race, good value play.
#2 FLAT LUCKY (5-2)	Towers over field if you discount latest, recent :48 work encouraging.
#8 RAHMER (10-1)	Can rally into gimmick wagers at big price, had trouble lines in last three starts.
Race Summary	MR. MOX swung 5-wide for the stretch drive but was out-kicked by the troubled winner in the same spot at Laurel Park. The raced timed 2/5 of a second faster than a $30k/nw3 claimer on the same card. He's worth a win and place bet and as part of a 2-6-8 exacta box.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Ajax Downs

PURCHASE

Ajax Downs - Race 3	Win / Place / Show / Daily Double / Exactor / Triactor / Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) Pick 5 (Races 3-4-5-6-7)
Trial • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 71 • Purse: $9,000 • Post: 2:24P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR NOMINATION PAYMENTS AND FURTHER STAKES RACE DETAILS, SEE THE QROOI STAKES BOOK.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * SUGAR N PRIDE: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rat ing. PRETTY MAGICALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SENATOR OF MAGIC: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
4	SUGAR N PRIDE	2/1	5/2
5	PRETTY MAGICALL	9/2	9/2
3	SENATOR OF MAGIC	5/2	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	EYEM MAXIMUS	1	3/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	55	49	6.8	0.0	0.0
2	CHASING BUTTERFLIES	2	8/5	Slow	55	52	6.4	0.0	0.0
3	SENATOR OF MAGIC	3	5/2	Average	61	54	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	SUGAR N PRIDE	4	2/1	Fast	69	66	3.4	0.0	0.0
5	PRETTY MAGICALL	5	9/2	Average	70	57	3.9	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill DownsPURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 6	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9) / Super Hi-5
Claiming $50,000 • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $66,000 • Post: 3:18P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $40,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. NEW BEAT is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NEW BEAT: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. I HAD THAT ONE TOO: Horse ranks in the top th ree in TrackMaster Power Rating. BROUGHTY FERRY: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. MALU: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. LADAN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Pow er Rating.
6	NEW BEAT	7/2	7/2
7	I HAD THAT ONE TOO	5/1	6/1
4	BROUGHTY FERRY	3/1	9/1
3	MALU	5/2	10/1
2	LADAN	15/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	NEW BEAT	6	7/2	Front-runner	87	72	76.4	67.8	57.3
3	MALU	3	5/2	Stalker	73	73	57.5	67.9	61.9
5	FASTA LAVISTA BABY	5	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	69	67.8	58.2	49.2
1	NORISKIT NOBISCUIT	1	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	75	53.8	68.1	58.1
2	LADAN	2	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	82	71	50.0	65.0	59.0
7	I HAD THAT ONE TOO	7	5/1	Trailer	85	87	73.2	76.0	70.5
4	BROUGHTY FERRY	4	3/1	Trailer	83	74	62.5	66.1	59.1

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10300 Class Rating: 76

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SCREENPLAY 5/2
# 3 FREE MAKER 6/1
# 7 BIG TICKET 3/1

My selection in this race is SCREENPLAY. Recent figs for the jock - 30 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this group of horses. Badrie will almost certainly be able to get this gelding to break out early for this event. Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last race. FREE MAKER - Ran a strong last race. Has performed very well recently in sprint races, posting a nifty 70 avg speed rating. BIG TICKET - Anderson has one of the top winning percentages in this group with entries running at this distance and surface. Overall the Equibase Speed Figs of this equine look decent in this competition.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Louisiana Downs - Race #1 - Post: 4:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 67

Rating:

#2 ARIEL M D (ML=6/1)
#1 TROUBLE WITH SUGAR (ML=2/1)


ARIEL M D - My expertise says this is the lone stalker in the race. This filly registered a strong speed figure of 67 in her last race. That figure should be strong enough to prove victorious this time out. In this race here, this horse has clearly shown signs that she likes the grass. Her Equibase speed figures are the highest in the field for this distance and surface. Have to watch for this animal on the turf. Last race at Louisiana Downs, scored a big turf fig. Have to think she can do it again in this race. TROUBLE WITH SUGAR - This magnificent animal has a lot of class. A good sign in a turf race like we have today. I like this mount. Should be familiar with this level since she ran against the same type last time around the track at Evangeline Downs. Made up a ton of ground running 5 furlongs in the last race. Should do well on the stretch-out today. Don't throw out based on last race finish. She didn't hit the board, but made a nice move in the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CHAPELLETE (ML=5/2), #6 DOMINA (ML=7/2), #4 SHE'S MO FANCY (ML=8/1),

CHAPELLETE - When examining today's Equibase class figure, she will have to garner a much better speed fig than last time around the track to be competitive in this turf route. DOMINA - This filly is always in the money, but just doesn't finish first. Tough to invest in her on the win end. Mediocre speed rating last race out at Louisiana Downs at 1 mile 70 yards. Don't think this racer will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - ARIEL M D - Jackson is making good money with this horse. Tops in earnings per start.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 ARIEL M D is the play if we get odds of 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 2:30pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $40,000 Class Rating: 87

Rating:

#4 MAJOR MACK (ML=6/1)
#7 ZEVON (ML=10/1)


MAJOR MACK - I think the shorter trip will help this colt stay the distance. Taking a trip down in the class scale; has the ability to make his presence felt. This mount has a lot of class. A good sign in a race on the turf like we have today. ZEVON - Gelding has shown some speed. This shorter distance should be better for him. Have to make this gelding a contender; he comes off a sharp outing on May 23rd.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ROUNDTOP (ML=2/1), #5 SUMMER SOLDIER (ML=4/1), #9 ST. NEOTS (ML=4/1),

ROUNDTOP - Can't play this chalk horse off the long layoff. SUMMER SOLDIER - Doesn't look to be worth 4/1 in today's event. Pass on him this time. ST. NEOTS - Don't think this questionable contender is worth 4/1 in this clash.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 MAJOR MACK on the nose if you can get odds of 7/5 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [4,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Penn National

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 8.3f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 82

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MAY 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE APRIL 12 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 BROOKLYN GIRL 2/1
# 2 DUST BUNNY 5/1
# 3 HAPPYBIRTHDAYCOREY 9/2

My pick for this event is BROOKLYN GIRL. Ought to be given a chance - I like the figures from the last competition. Has been running in the most competitive company of the group recently. She has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the strongest in this field. DUST BUNNY - She has been travelling admirably as of late while recording solid Equibase Speed Figures. With a +12 ROI, this jockey and handler combo has produced very strong profits recently for wagerers. HAPPYBIRTHDAYCOREY - With a formidable 74 speed rating last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest.