Thursday 6/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:41 AM

Jeff Siegel's What You Need to Know: - Santa Anita - 6/13/24

June 13, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita “What You Need to Know
Thursday, June 13, 2024

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “What You Need to Know” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

View Jeff Siegel’s Prime Plays Videos Video

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RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: Dr Ruben M; 5-Pavel’s Etoile.
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Dr Ruben M is a first timer with a series of nice drills on his resume and looks very well-meant in this five turf dash for juveniles. The son of Vino Rosso is a smooth athlete with an easy way of traveling and has shown enough speed to be effective at this abbreviated trip despite his pedigree suggesting he should be more effective at longer trips. Interestingly, at 5/2, he’s not the morning line favorite, that honor assigned to Pavel’s Etoile, (2-1), who likely was best in her debut facing fillies last month when she broke slowly, rallied with interest, but simply ran out of room to miss by a half-length as the public choice. She gets an extra half furlong to work with and has the pedigree to enjoy turf.

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RACE 2: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 6-Ocasek
Backups/savers: 1-Thunder Ball; 4-This Is a Joke.

Forecast: Ocasek makes his first start since last summer at Saratoga for new trainer K. Mulhall in his first try in a maiden claimer and his first as a gelding. Well-backed on the tote in each of three Eastern races, he was disappointing in his final two starts against maiden special weight company after initially impressing when second in his debut in a fast, highly rated race. He’s trained like he’s fit and ready and projects as the controlling speed in a field with very little of it, so we anticipate he takes control early and then says “Bye Bye Love” to his five rivals.

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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Main Ticket: 4-Cane Creek Road; 2-Give Me the Lute
Backups/savers: 7-Proof He Rides

Forecast: Here’s an evenly matched group of starter allowance turf sprinters, and no result would surprise. Use as many as you can afford; small ticket players can concentrate on the three listed above. Cane Creek Road is a tough-as nails, genuine and consistent gelding who has finished first or second in five of 10 starts over the local lawn. He employs a good stalking style, and in a race that projects to have an easy early pace, the son of Bayern should be just where he wants to be every step of the way. Give Me the Lute has solid numbers and will to win (10-for-33 lifetime). His best effort will make him very tough.

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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: C+
Main Ticket: Luther Pass; 5-Citadino
Backups/Savers: none.

Forecast: Luther Pass has hit the board in four of five career starts and is overdue to graduate in this bottom rung maiden claiming main track miler for older horses. He had no excuse in a similar affair last month, but this looks like an easier group, one that he should be able to handle from a stalking spot. Citadino removes blinkers (like that angle) after finishing a distant third at odds-on in the same race out top pick exits. Maybe he’ll improve for new trainer J. Periban following a $20,000 claim and with a clean start that could allow him to set the pace and perhaps get brave.

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RACE 5: Post: 3:12 PT Grade: B+
Main Ticket: 3-Iscereamuscream; 5-Rascality
Backups/savers: 6-Soho

Forecast: This is stakes-quality first level allowance turf sprint for sophomore fillies, and it will take a good one to win it. Iscreamuscream won her debut stylishly last fall over this course and distance with a strong number but then disappeared. She returns for P. D’Amato (strong stats with layoff runners) with a series of excellent breezing-type drills that should have her fit and ready. The daughter of Twirling Candy is a first time Lasix user and can be capable of coping with any type of race shape. Rascality finished a sharp runner-up in the Senorita Stakes over a mile last month and returns to the distance of her impressive maiden score two runs back. She’s a solid fit on speed figures and projects to draft into a good pressing/stalking position and have dead aim and every chance from there.

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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: X
Main Ticket: Nooni; Lee’s Baby Girl
Backups/savers: none.

Forecast: Nooni brought $1.8 million at the OBS March sale after a warp speed workout of :20 1/5 during the preview session over the trampoline-styled all weather strip and is the first B. Baffert-trained juvenile filly to make it to the post in this five furlong dash. We’ve noticed her tendency to lean out a bit on the turn, but It may not better; she’s listed as the 4/5 morning in favorite. Lee’s Baby Girl was well-meant in her debut on grass last month and displayed ability when a solid runner-up in a fairly fast grass event. If she can duplicate that race on dirt, she’ll be competitive right back.

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RACE 7: Post: 4:12 PT Grade: B
Main Ticket: 4-Yellow Sun Dress; 8-Head for Om
Backups/savers: 1-Pink Ace.

Forecast: Yellow Sun Dress seeks her third straight score over the local lawn in this starter allowance sprint for fillies and mares, and on pure numbers she looks capable of extending the streak. The M. Glatt-trained daughter of Karakontie has an ideal stalk and pounce style that is effective regardless of pace flow, and with a nice, easy breeze since raced to tick her over she should fire another winning shot. Headed for Om is virtually identical to our top pick in the speed figure department and is another that prefers to settle behind the leaders and then blast home. She’s the one our top pick must worry about the most.

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RACE 8: Post: 4:42PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 5-Bessie Coleman
Backups/savers: 3-Willow Cove; 2-Betty Pack

Forecast: Bessie Coleman completely blew the break in her debut, spotting the field 10 lengths and perhaps even more, then produced a miraculous rally to finish second, beaten less than a length, in a similar state-bred abbreviated dash for older state-bred fillies and mares. If she leaves with her field, logic says she will graduate today, though you never can be sure what you’re going to get in a horse’s second start. Worth noting (and perhaps be concerned about) is the late scratch on May 29 and no works for eight days after that, though she did look fine (just galloping through the stretch) in a five furlong 1:05 flat move that was not much more than a two minute gallop.

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RACE 9: Post: 5:12 PT Grade: B
Main ticket: 8-Badda Bing (Fr); 7-The Rabbi
Backups/savers: 2-El Rey Rey; 10-Moonlight Sonata; 3-All That Glory.

Forecast: Badda Bing (Fr) was visually quite impressive in his debut win in Ireland in February, after which he was purchased privately and imported in what may prove to be a good acquisition. The P. D’Amato-trained sophomore quickened from off the pace to win with something left, so if he runs back to that performance in his new surroundings, the French-bred should be capable of being quite competitive. The race projects to have very quick early fractions that will compliment his late running style. The Rabbi was 41-1 in his debut sprinting over the local lawn but shouldn’t have been. The son of Hard Spun settled far off the pace and then uncorked a powerful late bit to win going away like a colt with a future. It’s possible he’ll eventually prove to be just a late-running sprinter, but maybe not. One things for sure, he’ll have all the help he needs up front.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:42 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#4 Run Carson	He was pretty solid in that debut score on the Gulfstream turf, and he might have some upside while getting back to that footing after an OK try on the main track. Will have to turn the tables on Bear River.
#3 Bear River	He finally got that second score after keeping some very tough company along the way since last year, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him score right back if he can hold that form on the surface switch. Bigger danger if it comes off?
#5 Smokey Smokey	He makes sense in here while bringing solid form, and he just landed a stakes win at Aqueduct with a perfect pressing trip similar to the one he should get today. Tough.
Race Summary	Run Carson has a little bit of appeal at a midrange price while getting back over to the turf, and he might still have some upside with just the two career starts under his belt.

Churchill Downs - Race #7

#6 Air It Out	He was second best at this level a couple starts back, and he figures to land another trip that will give him every chance on the far turn. Like the way he held form against tougher last out.
#4 Peek	He finished behind the top choice when they recently met, but he has pretty reliable form that stacks up well with these. Biggest concern is that he has already had his chances and doesn't always punch home with a ton of enthusiasm. He can win this, but he's not really for me today.
#1 Lou's Legacy	Nothing wrong with earning $105k without winning a race, and he finds a slightly softer spot today than he has been used to seeing. Along late to threaten.
Race Summary	Air It Out has pretty solid form, especially if you forgive the two-turn try in a tough race in New Orleans in March, and the price might still be OK today.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#1 Spartan Queen	Her form has always been all over the place, so I'm willing to give her a pass for the last one that sent her off for a three-month break. The winner that day has turned into a nice one, and something like the two-back run might keep her in the frame at an OK price.
#5 Mrs. Astor	Her baseline form makes her a player in here, but her lack of early pace can be a limiting factor for her and may leave her too much to do again today. Obvious player if you just need to get through this race.
#8 Mo Shiro	Considered him on top, but I'm excited to see him come back today after he went to the bench last summer. He was getting decent at Fair Grounds last year and might have enough talent to be competitive with this kind at a decent price.
Race Summary	Spartan Queen might find a decent spot while tucked in on the fence, and she has a little positional pace in a race without a ton of serious early burn. Consider #11 Tarneema off the clunker last out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:42 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Delaware Park - Race #1

#1 HAPPY RIDE (4-1)	Should sit ideal trip in three-peat attempt after winless 2023 campaign.
#4 ANNA’S DREAM (2-1)	Lightly raced but 4-for-10, plunges off layoff, speed will be tested.
#2 RAISE YOUR GAME (3-1)	Should benefit from returns, gets more pace to rally into.
Race Summary	HAPPY RIDE arrives from Tampa Bay Downs off back-to-back victories and in a new barn. He led clear most of the way two starts back, then chased a faster pace and prevailed in a more likely scenario for today’s race. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#7 FABULOUS CANDY (3-1)	Right set-up, right price to build on solid Delaware Park record.
#3 GO MARGIE GO (2-1)	Travels well, fires fresh, takes class drop off the claim.
#5 LOVELY LIZA (10-1)	Another steady check-getter to use in gimmick wagers on the stretch-out.
Race Summary	FABULOUS CANDY earned her top speed figure in a near miss at this level two starts ago, then ran second as the favorite for $25k to enhance her Delaware Park record to 5/2-3-0. She should sit an ideal stalking trip in her bid to upgrade a series of in-the-money finishes. Bet to win and place.

Delaware Park - Race #8

#6 RALLY BOARD (8-1)	Showed promise in both starts, idle since February claim at Fair Grounds.
#5 LOOK SHARP (2-1)	Hitting best stride at age 4, couldn’t reach winning favorite in local bow.
#1 DUTCH MILLS (3-1)	Avoided trouble, rallied 4-wide, won when fave was DQ’d at Oaklawn.
Race Summary	RALLY BOARD, claimed out of a $30k maiden claiming romp at Fair Grounds, rated kindly up front and ‘dominated’ six rivals in his seasonal debut four months ago. He shows a steady work tab at Delaware and draws a favorable post to repeat. Bet to win and place but don’t expect 8-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Equibase Special

PURCHASE

Equibase Special - Race 3	Leg 3 of the Santa Anita All Turf Pick 3
Optional Claiming $100,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Age 3 • CR: 98 • Purse: $55,000 • Post: 5:12P
SA - R9 - (RAIL AT 20 FEET). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $100,000. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $100,000 (HORSES ENTERED FOR THE ALLOWANCE ARE PREFERRED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MOONLIT SONATA: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. EL REY REY: Ho rse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SKETCHY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ALL THAT GLORY: Today is a route and this is the horse' s third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races. SORRENTO SKY (IRE): Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
10	MOONLIT SONATA	4/1	7/1
2	EL REY REY	5/1	7/1
6	SKETCHY	15/1	7/1
3	ALL THAT GLORY	7/2	7/1
9	SORRENTO SKY (IRE)	12/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	ALL THAT GLORY	3	7/2	Front-runner	95	100	94.8	94.8	85.8
1	CHARGE FOR GOLD	1	20/1	Front-runner	95	92	87.0	87.5	75.5
9	SORRENTO SKY (IRE)	9	12/1	Stalker	95	91	90.9	90.9	82.9
6	SKETCHY	6	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	92	93	93.2	88.4	79.9
5	RASTAMAN VIBE	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	94	91	87.6	84.0	67.5
10	MOONLIT SONATA	10	4/1	Trailer	93	96	102.8	91.8	85.3
4	PROMISSIO	4	8/1	Trailer	93	93	93.8	87.0	70.5
2	EL REY REY	2	5/1	Trailer	93	95	83.4	90.6	81.6
7	THE RABBI	7	8/1	Trailer	89	87	82.5	82.5	70.0

Unknown Running Style: BADDA BING (FR) (3/1) [Jockey: Fresu Antonio - Trainer: D'Amato Philip].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:43 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream ParkPURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 8	$1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta / $1 Super Hi 5
Maiden Claiming $25,000 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 73 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 4:20P
(RAIL AT 59 FEET). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE TAPETA COURSE AT ONE MILE AND SEVENTY YARDS)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. FIRST SHOT FIRED is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * FIRST SHOT FIRED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. CHROMOTION: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NO PLEBEIAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FRANKS MIMI: Horse has run a Good Race wi thin the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	FIRST SHOT FIRED	3/1	3/1
4	CHROMOTION	4/1	7/1
2	NO PLEBEIAN	6/1	9/1
7	FRANKS MIMI	9/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	WE GOT THIS	3	8/1	Front-runner	0	0	75.0	66.2	52.2
4	CHROMOTION	4	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	72	71	102.3	63.9	59.9
5	REMERTON	5	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	79	66	59.4	60.6	53.1
1	FIRST SHOT FIRED	1	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	80	73	75.8	79.6	72.1
6	R R EMPIRE	6	20/1	Trailer	72	62	67.9	61.4	48.9
7	FRANKS MIMI	7	9/2	Trailer	69	68	64.5	64.5	57.5
2	NO PLEBEIAN	2	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	78	68	53.4	65.2	59.2
8	ADMIRAL CURL	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	74.5	56.2	45.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 73

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 28 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 13 ALLOWED 4 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 7 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 MISS BARB 7/2
# 4 NEGOCIADORA L R 4/1
# 3 CHICA RABIOSA 5/1

My selection in here is MISS BARB. With Rivera in the saddle guiding her, this filly will almost certainly be able to break out quickly for this event. This filly is a solid choice based on her earnings per start in dirt route events. Facing a much easier field than last time out. NEGOCIADORA L R - Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 67 speed rating which is one of the top in this field. Is worth looking at and may be a bet - strong speed figures (66 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. CHICA RABIOSA - Must be considered given the class of races run lately. Could best this group based on the Equibase speed fig - 64 - of her last contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #3 - Post: 1:35pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#6 WARRIOR'S PLACE (ML=5/2)

WARRIOR'S PLACE - Was in a $5,000 Claiming race at Turfway Park in the last race. That clash had a class rating of 85 and he is moving down today. A certain strong challenger. Great chance for this pony. Big late speed and should have good position. Don't throw out based on last race finish. He didn't land in the top three, but made a nice move in the lane making up ground. Could be dangerous at a possible price.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 CONNECT ME (ML=7/2), #2 DAWN WEST (ML=4/1), #3 CALLOWAY PEAK (ML=9/2),

CONNECT ME - Granted the last race was strong, finishing first. The lack of any recent activity raises some concerns though. DAWN WEST - Finished fourth on May 30th after the extended layoff. Doubtful if there will be any betterment in this race. Hard to put your cash on the win end of any entrant that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - WARRIOR'S PLACE - This gelding is ready to do some damage in today's contest. He has recorded three excellent speed figs over his last three events.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 WARRIOR'S PLACE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [4,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:43 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $30000 Class Rating: 76

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TWIRLING TROILLET 4/1
# 1 BROTHER RICE 7/5
# 6 HEZMORETHANREADY 10/1

I think TWIRLING TROILLET is a competitive choice. This selection will feel the med change - now going off Lasix today. Milligan has a strong win percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Over time, this conditioner has a decent ROI at this distance/surface. BROTHER RICE - Has quite good speed figs and has to be considered for a bet in this competition. Had one of the best Speed Figures of this field in his last contest. HEZMORETHANREADY - Could beat this group given the 68 speed rating earned in his last outing. This gelding must be considered just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint contests alone.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2024, 06:44 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #3 - Post: 5:48pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $28,600 Class Rating: 75

Rating:

#3 PLUS POWER (ML=5/2)

PLUS POWER - I think that a sprinter coming off a layoff will usually run her best in the 3rd or 4th start back. The 66 most recent race figure looks sound on paper.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 BIG GINGER (ML=2/1), #2 HELLUVA HOLIDAY (ML=7/2), #4 HEKLA'S AURA (ML=9/2),

BIG GINGER - Equibase speed figures tell a tale of lessening form. HELLUVA HOLIDAY - This stretch-runner should have a rough go of it to get up with the lack of speed in this race. Finished third in her most recent performance with a somewhat easily forgotten speed fig. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch. HEKLA'S AURA - You believe this equine is going to win just because she's always close. Just doesn't win regularly. Would have to move up off that sixth place finish last time out to make an impact here. The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this contest when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this racer as a possibly overvalued equine.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #3 PLUS POWER to win if you can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	None
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Thursday 6/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

Thursday 6/13/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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