Sunday 6/16/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:18 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 16, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
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Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a low 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

1-Joelsyy Hanover (7-1)-This level is a test for many in the field and this 6-year-old is no exception. Looking for Kurt Sugg to get the Millner trainee rolling off the gate and to be quick enough to land in the pocket. Could surprise at a price if that happens.
2-Thornbush Hanover (4-1)-Went off at 2/5 and raced like it on 6-9 drawing off by >3 lengths. Takes a good jump up to race at this level, so it is not automatic. But Aaron Merriman will likely land on the point and control the mile. Looks like a double-up possibility, and hopefully won't be bet hard.
8-Lake Charles (6-1)-Drops to a spot to shine but has to cope with the 8-hole and the one above getting the jump when the wings fold. Did take a picture on 4-7, the last time in this cheap, and might have the best gate speed in the field. It won't be easy, but at this price will use and not risk being a ticket buster.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

4-Soutwind Amazon (1-1)-Drops, Ronnie Wrenn gets the call, and there is no inside gate speed. The old-timer has a lot of things in his favor and will rely on the 14-year-old to bring a top effort tonight.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

2-Herecomescharlie B (4-1)-My guess is this veteran will be better than 4-1 at post time. Willing to take a swing there is a cozy trip coming. If that happens, could surprise and has done good work at Nfld (54-10-6-8).
7-Joggingtothebank (5/2)-Gets a post edge that could be a winning difference over #8. Merriman will have his foot through the floorboard when the wings fold. If he lands on the point without much strain, it could lead to the 3rd win in the last 4 starts.
8-Don't Take My Keys (6-1)-Cashes a lot of checks but hasn't been stringing wins together. Needs some racing luck from out here but if the pace is quick good things could happen. Need to use at the morning line price, and doesn't have to lead every step of the way to win.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-Catch Me Conrad (9/2)-Finished a good 2nd on 6-2 at this level. Then put in a start at an Ohio Fair and suffered broken equipment. Draws the rail and now Merriman arrives on the scene. Looks like a solid play but not seeing the morning line price holding up.
3-Incredible Man (5/2)-Tried to get on the engine and not look back. That plan worked for a while but slowed to a crawl in the late going. Drops to a nice spot to post a win and should be a main player.
9-Dealt A Winner (4-1)-Classy veteran gets stuck with the 2nd tier after winning its last 3 starts, but it could work out. Should get away with a close-up seat following #1 off the gate. Best to respect chances to continue taking pictures, there is little doubt Merriman will be out and rolling from the word go.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1,2,8/4/2,7,8/1,3,9
Total Bet=$27

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:19 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #2

#1 Mo For Us	She's probably tough here at another short kind of price after a modest running line that was the result of some trouble in the last one. Think she'll be in a good spot throughout from the inside.
#3 Wowsers	Honest finisher typically just ends up with a little too much to do, but she's likely to show up with another solid rally for at least a share. Seems like the most reasonable alternative.
#7 Sombra Dorada	She offered early pace and folded up in the lane in the debut run, but there really isn't a whole lot of other speed lined up in here. Could see her controlling or attacking the pace from the outside from the start. Think the top two will be tough, but she's not out of the question as a pace/flow angle.
Race Summary	Mo For Us has enough tactical speed to keep tabs on Sombra Dorada, who gives me a little bit of worry with her outside pace, and I think 'Us will be able to handle this group if she can finally track a clean trip.

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#4 Sugar Hook	Think he might have a claim on this at a bit of a price while working out the right kind of spying trip, and he may not be as far off these right now as the price suggests. Worth a look.
#12 Rebel Red	He was a bit underwhelming at 2.59-1 in the American debut last out, but he was coming off a break back to October 2022, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him move forward with that race under his belt. Not sure he's going to offer the right kind of price to tempt me enough.
#2 Rocky Joy	He looks like the most committed early pace from the inside after getting reeled in late here last month, and something similar to that run probably makes him tough right back. Capable.
Race Summary	There are a couple of races on Sugar Hook's page that I don't dislike entirely, and I wonder if he can find a perfect spot tracking Rocky Joy early and grind this out after getting the jump on the finishing threats.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#2 Cajun Cruiser	He and the next guy come out of the same race and make the same hike off the claim. There are not a lot of finishing lines in this one, and his ability to get past horses late might make him competitive at a midrange price.
#8 Midnight Ambition	Positive hike off the claim for a team that has done some good work together, and his positional pace should have him in the perfect spot turning for home.
#12 Gun Show	He can bring something better today while getting blinkers and dropping the price in a big way, but I'm not that enthusiastic about him overall, especially if the price gets short.
Race Summary	#1 Hallelujah Harris got a long look here, too, while making the second start back and having hints of finishing form. Cajun Cruiser is a proven finisher in a race that might be crying out for someone to scoop it up late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

PURCHASE

Lethbridge - Race 6	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Starter Allowance $6,250 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $7,300 • Post: 3:20P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOR HORSES THAT HAVE STARTED FOR CLAIMING $6250 OR LESS IN 2023-2024 (RAN FOR TAG) AND SINCE RUNNING FOR $6250 OR LESS HAVE NOT WON A RACE FOR HIGHER THAN $6250 (INCLUDES HIGHER WAIVER) A STARTER $6250 OR HIGHER AN ALW OR STAKE. NW 2-3-4-5 WILL BE CONSIDERED $4000 CLAIMING RACES FOR ELIGIBILITY. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Trailer. KUHL STAR is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LITTLE CASINO: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TOP OF TH E ROCK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. KUHL STAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top t hree in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	LITTLE CASINO	9/5	3/1
1	TOP OF THE ROCK	2/1	9/2
2	KUHL STAR	7/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	TOP OF THE ROCK	1	2/1	Front-runner	75	70	87.5	68.6	62.6
6	LITTLE CASINO	6	9/5	Front-runner	77	72	72.5	80.4	78.4
2	KUHL STAR	2	7/1	Trailer	77	67	41.4	72.6	68.6
3	UNUSUAL ACCOUNT	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	64	64.0	66.8	57.8
4	THE HYBRID	4	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	66	0.0	66.2	58.7
5	HEY JASPER	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	62	0.0	61.4	51.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:20 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie MeadowsPURCHASE

Prairie Meadows - Race 10	Win/ Place/ Show/ Quinella / Exacta / Trifecta (.50 Minimum) Superfecta (.10 Minimum) / Daily Double
Optional Claiming $30,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 91 • Purse: $36,500 • Post: 7:51P
FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 TWICE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, WAIVER CLAIMING OR IOWA BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 16, 2024 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * SEA TO SUCCESS: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. CONCEPT: Today is a s print and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. BOLT FORTY FIVE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PEACE DOG: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. TRIPULANTE: H orse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	SEA TO SUCCESS	7/2	6/1
2	CONCEPT	6/1	6/1
1	BOLT FORTY FIVE	5/1	7/1
6	PEACE DOG	5/2	8/1
5	TRIPULANTE	2/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BOLT FORTY FIVE	1	5/1	Front-runner	86	86	90.0	80.8	73.3
2	CONCEPT	2	6/1	Front-runner	88	90	80.4	78.4	71.9
4	NORWAY BEACH	4	8/1	Front-runner	79	82	74.0	70.8	60.3
5	TRIPULANTE	5	2/1	Stalker	93	82	72.8	76.6	70.6
6	PEACE DOG	6	5/2	Stalker	85	88	64.2	79.6	74.1
3	SEA TO SUCCESS	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	100	78	76.2	82.4	77.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race #3 - Post: 2:48pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#4 SUMMANUS (ML=5/2)
#1 UNCLE LEON (ML=3/1)

SUMMANUS - Gelding failed to win as the public choice in a $5,000 Claiming race last time out. Was a good performance even though he finished second. A wise man taught me to wager on the lone speed horse. Take a look at this horse. The June 2nd affair at Emerald Downs was at a class level of (88). Dropping to a lower level drastically, so he should be in a good position to win. Have to like the way Perez has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today. UNCLE LEON - My experienced judgement tells me to watch out for this mount in this contest

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 AWESOME MOVE (ML=2/1), #6 AIN'T NO SISSY (ML=6/1), #2 PEDAL TO THE METAL (ML=8/1),

AWESOME MOVE - In any contest of 5 1/2 furlongs, I like to wager on a contender that has been looking good in short distance races recently. AIN'T NO SISSY - Not easy to wager on any racer in a short distance event if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months. This mount ran a disappointing speed figure last time around the track. He shouldn't run much better and will likely suffer defeat today running that figure. PEDAL TO THE METAL - It's a major step to win in a Maiden Claiming event and then step up and beat winners.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - SUMMANUS - When a campaigner has a big edge over the rest of the field in Power Rating, I make a bet.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 SUMMANUS on the win end if we get at least 8/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5600 Class Rating: 53

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 TIZ CURLY JOE 8/5
# 1 MR MAKUNOUCHI 4/1
# 2 PRIME TIME PORTA 2/1

My selection for this race is TIZ CURLY JOE. Stewart has him trained quite well to break rapidly out of the starting gate. The speed fig of 63 from his most recent race looks respectable in here. Look for a much better performance with the drop. PRIME TIME PORTA - Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the difference to a major improvement. Should go to the lead and may never look back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:20 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ajax Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $13000 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ONTARIO SIRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 EYESA DASHA WACKY 2/1
# 1 TEE REX 8/5
# 3 DOUBLE DASHIN CORONA 9/2

I think EYESA DASHA WACKY is a decent choice. Has competitive Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a wager in this event. Broadstock has a formidable 22 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. Has a very strong shot in this race if you like back class. TEE REX - Have to bet on this money-making jock and conditioner twosome. Looks solid versus this field and should be one of the leaders. DOUBLE DASHIN CORONA - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the bunch going into the halfway point of the contest. The Equibase speed fig of 59 from her most recent affair looks strong in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2024, 06:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:14pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#1 BEBEDOURO (ML=5/2)
#3 WICKED MELODY (ML=5/1)

BEBEDOURO - Torres and Lobo perform well when they team up. It's hard to beat a +116 return on investment for a jockey and conditioner. The most dangerous animal in racing is the lone speed horse. If they let him get away early they probably won't catch him. Ran last race out against tougher competition at Churchill Downs. The move to a lower level should suit him well. WICKED MELODY - You'll be generating profits right and left by turning your bankroll onto this jockey/handler combination. I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a comeback. A repeat of that latest race on May 21st where he recorded a speed rating of 70 looks strong enough to prove victorious in this contest. Personally, I wouldn't worry about where he finished in his last race (fourth). Should improve in today's race, with some pretty good odds.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LORD DIAMOND (ML=7/2), #8 ZECA DIABO (ML=4/1), #2 LET'S GO CHAMP (ML=5/1),

LORD DIAMOND - Didn't look so good last time. Probably won't make a winning move in today's event. ZECA DIABO - Tough to support any runner in a short distance race if he hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with oddsmaker's morning line of 4/1. The rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this race when I look at the Equibase class figure of today's race. Mark this horse as a possibly overvalued contestant. LET'S GO CHAMP - Didn't hit the board on Apr 6th at Oaklawn Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. This horse ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure last race out. He shouldn't run much better and will probably get beat in today's event running that fig.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 BEBEDOURO is going to be the play if we are getting 9/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPER HI-5 WAGERS:	Pass