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Re: 3-26-09
Matt Rivers
200,000* ABSOLUTE LOCK OF MY LIFE!
Your winner here is on Villanova!
Matt Rivers
200,000* ABSOLUTE LOCK OF MY LIFE!
Your winner here is on Villanova!
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Re: 3-26-09
Robert Ferringo
7-Unit Play. Take Villanova (+2.5) over Duke
Note: This is our NCAA Tournament Game of the Year.
This is the matchup that I was hoping for when I saw the brackets released on Selection Sunday. I can’t fully explain why, but I simply feel like Villanova matches up particularly well with this Duke team and that the Wildcats have the athleticism and the guard play to win this game outright. Throw in the fact that Villanova should have strong support from a pro-Big East crowd in Boston and I think that the underdog will get it done here.
In several ways this ‘Nova team reminds me a bit of the West Virginia squad that knocked off Duke last year and their guards are better than the VCU team that tore up Duke in the first round of 2007. Villanova has four talented, fearless, get-to-the-basket guards that will not be intimidated by going up against the Dukies. Villanova also has four athletic frontcourt players that should be able to at least hold their own on the glass if not hold a sizeable advantage there. Dante Cunningham is no Joe Alexander, but he is a talented post player that can step away from the basket and make shots. He is the Wildcats leading scorer and was an All-Big East performer. But Cunningham isn’t even the Money Man for this Wildcats team. That would be Scottie Reynolds, the best guard in the tournament that no one is talking about. Two years ago, as a freshman, Reynolds went bonkers at the end of the year, topping 20 points in six of his last seven games, including a 40-point outburst in a win at Connecticut. Last year he closed the season with three of five at 20+, including 21 and 25 in the opening two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. The kid is fearless and skilled and I don’t think that the Blue Devils have anyone to guard him. Now, Reynolds had been banged up over the last week or so and he’s only managed 21 points in his last three games. I’ll be stunned if he doesn’t have at least that many points in this game tonight.
Duke is Duke. You can’t really knock them. They are a damn fine team and they deserve to be where they are. They also have some big wins in the nonconference this year. But if you look at the teams that beat them this year – Michigan, Wake, North Carolina, B.C. and Clemson – they all have things in common. All five of them have at least one exceptional scoring guard, a la Reynolds. Also, four of the five (Michigan is the exception) was bigger and stronger than Duke on the interior. And finally, all five teams beat Duke on the road, outside the coziness of Cameron Indoor. Villanova is at least as good as Michigan, Clemson or Boston College, so I think that they can win this game.
I brought up the fact that they are playing in Boston. To me that makes a significant difference. One of the things that makes Duke so tough to beat is the fact that the officials are so disgustingly pro-Duke it’s playing against a sixth player. And that’s not Duke-bashing. That’s me having watched about 45-50 Duke games just in the last two years and seeing it with my own eyes. But there won’t be ACC or Big East officials working tonight’s game (and if we end up with Ed Hightower I’m going to kill someone) so they will be less inclined to give Duke those “questionable” calls that they rely on. And if things do start to look fishy, don’t think for one second that the Boston crowd, with plenty of Philly fans making the trip, won’t let them hear about it. Villanova will have the crowd behind them, and for an underdog that’s a huge plus. Duke has not played well against the Big East – going just 2-8-1 ATS against them – and Duke has not been a good bet in the NCAA Tournament – 1-5 ATS overall and 2-10 ATS as a favorite.
Finally, does anything strike you as odd about this line? This is Duke, so the oddsmakers don’t have to do anything to entice the betting public to get behind the Blue Devils. But isn’t this line strangely low? Well, I went back over the last 12 years and analyzed how Duke performs in the line range of Duke +2 to Duke -5 and the results were about what I expected. This current group of Dukies is just 5-10 ATS in this line range. Over the last five years the program is just 10-17 ATS in this range and if you go all the way back to 1997-98 the Duke Blue Devils are just 18-28 (39.1 percent) against the spread between +2 and -5. Also, they are just 6-14 ATS in this line range, since 1997, in games played after Feb. 11. And if you look back over the last four years here were the spreads for their last games of the year: -4 (WVU), -6 (VCU), -5 (LSU), -4 (Mich. St.), +2 (UConn)*, +3.5 (Kansas), -13.5 (Indiana), -4 (Arizona)*, -4.5 (Florida), +9.5 (UConn)*, -1 (Kentucky). That’s 11 games and Duke was 1-10 SU, 3-8 ATS. If you throw out the Indiana and +9.5 Connecticut spreads you can see that in games with “tight” lines the Blue Devils are just 2-7 ATS and they lost outright in eight of the nine games. That, to me, is an indicator.
2.5-Unit Play. Take Missouri (+4.5) over Memphis
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 141.5 Missouri vs. Memphis
I think I’ve made my case pretty clear against the Memphis Tigers over the last few weeks. They are the most overrated team left in the field by virtue of the fact that they haven’t played anyone and they haven’t beaten anyone all season long. Their best win was over a soft Gonzaga team – and that’s it. Well, Utah beat Gonzaga this year and so did Portland State, but that doesn’t mean that they’re Final Four contenders now does it? In fact, Memphis’ win over No. 55-rated Maryland – the team that finished EIGHTH in the ACC – is the third-best win that Memphis has this year. I understand that they dominated that pathetic excuse for a conference that CUSA is this season, and that they made a mind at the window doing it. But Missouri has faced off against twice as many Top 50 opponents this year (16) than Memphis (7) and has an edge in Top 50 wins by a WIDE margin (11 to 4). Frankly, Missouri has played better against better competition this year. Further, Missouri has wins over Oklahoma, Kansas, Texas, USC and Cal. I would take just about any one of those wins over a victory against Gonzaga.
The teams that beat Memphis this year – Syracuse, Georgetown, Xavier – all had one thing in common: strength on the interior. All three of those teams had big forwards that could bang on the glass with Memphis. Memphis is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so most of their offense is simply throw it up on the glass and go get it. Well, I believe that Missouri is big enough and strong enough to hold its own on the interior. If they do that they will force Memphis’ guards to make plays and hit shots. They won’t do it. Memphis’ guards played out of their heads last weekend. And while you might look at that and say, “See, they are capable of playing that well.” I look at it and say, “They’ve never played that well in their lives and they aren’t going to do it again.” Case in point: Memphis shot 58.5 percent against Maryland! They shot 52.6 percent from 3-point land (10-for-19)! So what do you think the odds are that a team that shoots 32.9 percent from 3-point territory (No. 230 in the country) comes even close to hitting 50 percent from deep again? I think the odds are pretty slim.
Memphis isn’t playing Tulane. The’re not playing Tulsa. They’re not playing Southern Miss. In the Sweet 16 Memphis will be playing big boy teams from big boy conferences. I think that this Tigers team is garbage, and even if they win I’ll be right back betting against them to get smoked by Connecticut. I think we have an outright winner here, but regardless I’d like to think that the points are good.
1.5-Unit Play.TEASER:Take Villanova (+7.5) over Duke (10 p.m.) AND Take Missouri (+9.5) over MemphisComment
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Re: 3-26-09
DOC
6 Units Memphis -4.5
3 Units Villanova +2
NHL
5 Unit Play. Take Nashville +110 over San Jose
These two teams will meet for the fourth time this year tonight in Nashville, with San Jose tied for first place in the west with Detroit while Nashville is one point out of the eight and final spot for the playoffs. Two of the meetings happened in November were the teams split each, winning on each other home ice with Nashville giving up 57 shots at Anaheim and escaping with a 4-3 win in their first meeting of the season. The last two games with the Sharks the Predators have giving up an average of thirty five shots vs. San Jose which seems high but is right on par for a San Jose team that averages 34 shots vs. the league. San Jose comes into tonight off a 6-5 shootout loss last night in Chicago in a game that saw them come back from a three goal deficit to tie the game in the final moments and to get a point by going to the overtime. Last nights loss was the Sharks first since having some closed door meetings with the highest brass in the organization, with the amount of effort it took for this team to come back last night for a team that is still dealing with a ton of injuries I can't see how they will match a rested and desperate Nashville team energy tonight in just about what is the definition of a must win game and while that doesn't mean a automatic win for the Predators the Sharks will also start backup goalie Brain Boucher adding to the list of things Sharks are up against tonight with besides a hungry Nashville. Ton of value with the home puppy
2 Unit Play. Take Edmonton at Phoenix Over 5.5
Phoenix has lost all three meetings this year to the Oilers with the first two games going over before the last one in February stayed under all listed at 5.5 goals. Oilers head coach Craig Mactavish quoted in the audio saying 'zero chance of anybody but Roloson starting until a playoff spot is solidified'. While I am sure he knows more than me but Roloson has played a ton lately and tonight will be his twenty third straight start since February 8th, with his last game vs. Detroit on Tuesday where he was barrage with 44 shots and didn't let one get by him until late in the third period after the high powered Red Wings offense just keep up a consist attack. I watched most of that game and it looked like to me he was tired, the Oilers seem like they went into a shell trying to protect a 1-0 lead that ultimately back fired on them. Now they head to the desert to face a young, loose Phoenix team playing for pride and more importantly to get better for next year. The odds maker makes little adjustment to the style these teams played when meeting each other this year where in the first two meetings went over the 5.5 with under money attached before the last game where they put some over money where the game stayed under. These two teams have average 54 shots a game and six goals in the three meetings this and we get very little adjustment here with another 5.5 with small juice attached. I made this total at 6 flat by numbers and at the very least I think should be 5.5 over minus 30. With all that said has me on the over here.Comment
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Re: 3-26-09
IC
4 Unit Play. Take James Madison +6.5 over Old Dominion (Thursday @ 7pm est). Let's ride the San Diego State win to another pod winner hopefully today. Give JMU a lot of credit. They went into Liberty and won by 23 and beat Mt. St. Marys at home by 11. Liberty was ranked outside the top 200 but they had just crushed Rider at home and JMU just waltzed in and won by 23 points on the road. This team is a top 125 team that faces a top 100 team within their own conference today in ODU. This team beat ODU by 8 on the road and most recently lost to ODU by 6. In games like these, often you see the team that lost the mots rencet meeting gets the revenge - you see this countless times in the conference tournament as well. You think to yourself, that's crazy, how did this team beat them in the regular season and now lose today? It's all motivation - and in a tournament such as this, where it's not the Dance, just another opportunity to play, motivation becomes more of a factor. I like how JMU shoots 75.7% from the line as compared to ODU who shoots 63.3% from the line. ODU keeps getting it barely covering against Belmont and the Citadel winning by 8 and 8. Keep in mind they were down to Belmont at half and most of the way. Now, they face an ODU team that has beat this team on the road before (then lost at home to this team) and is not intimidated from the opening tip. ODU has been pressing its luck a bit of late but I think despite if they win this game, JMU getting the 6.5 points is a very nice play here given that they shoot better free throws and heck, they have a 50% of winning this game outright so why not take the points here. The Road team is 7-2 ATS between these two squads of late.
4 Unit Play. Take Under 202.5 between Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls (Thursday @ 8pm). I wrote an article about the myth of hoops consensus on the page today and if you get a chance check it out. I have changed my spreadsheets accordingly. As per today's play, let's ride the Under today in Chicago. If you are looking for another play, I took a long look at the Pistons today at home against the Lakers and a possible over there, but I laid off as the Lakers have some revenge coming into that game and they are playing strong basketball. I think the under here in Chicago is live. For starters, Derrick Rose is said to be questionable. Next, the Bulls have revenge against the Heat from their loss earlier this year when Wade hit the 3 point shot at the buzzer after stealing the ball. The Bulls are running just 7 deep right now as Kirk took over the point guard duties against the Pistons - and won. I understand the last contest between these two teams went over, but it also went into overtime sessions. There was 208 points scored in regulation in that game when the Bulls were an active 5 point dog. This game is a bit different as the Bulls are favored. The last time these two teams met in Chicago, the Heat won 95-93 and the game totaled at 188. Prior to that in Miami, the game totaled at 167 when these two teams met the day after Christmas. I think the total is placed as high as it is because of what happened in the last contest but these two teams are more of an under team when they face each other. The last 4 of 5 and 5 of 7 between these two have gone under. This is the last road game for Miami before they return home. This team just faced Indiana and comes off a very low scoring game that totaled 178 and that game's total was set at 204.5. Against Memphis, this team put up 94 points and the total closed at 176 from the line originally being set at 195. This team also played an Under at Cleveland (189), New Jersey (184) and Philly 162. The Bulls are just running 7 deep as well and I feel that this game will be a bit more methodical as the Bulls will run Tyrus Thomas, Gordon, Kirk, Salmons, Tim Thomas, Noah, Miller and Hunter. Note: Tyrus and Lindsay only played 4 minutes a peice roughly against the Pistons - so really, this team ran 6 guys for quite a bit of the game.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.Comment
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Re: 3-26-09
Winners Inc. Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, March 26, 2009
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$500,000 NCAA TOURNAMENT SWEET 16 PLAY OF THE YEAR
808 Duke -2.5 9:55 ESTComment
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Re: 3-26-09
STAN SHARP
TRIPLE DIME
MEMPHIS -4.5 0VER MISSOURI @ 930 est
Memphis showed they were for real on saturday with their total destruction of maryland . Tonight they face a missouri team that was life and death with marquette on sunday . Memphis is way too talented for missourI and should advance to the next round with an easy win . Stan has memphis winning by 10- 12 points . *** TRIPLE DIME ***
"SWEET 16 GAME OF THE MONTH "Comment
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Re: 3-26-09
MATT FAG RO
**8** #1 RATED TNT MARCH REPORT *61% RUN*
***** won another Star Attraction TV game as Boston stayed within the number against Orlando! His NBA BIG GAME Reports have been money going 68-45-1 ATS (60.2%) with his last 114 TOP PLAYS and since the All-Star Break he is a TREMENDOUS 25-16 ATS (61%)! Last month, his #1 TNT Report won (Houston 2/26) and this one will just as easy!
PORTLANDComment
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Re: 3-26-09
The real animal
Pick title: 3* Pittsburgh -6 1/2 at Olympic
Pick Date: 03/26/2009
Pick description:
Xavier is a formidable dog historically but I can't go against any team that beat Connecticut twice this year. That to me is just an unbelievable accomplishment and the Panthers can thank the spectacular Sam Young, who had 56 points in the two games versus the Huskies and closed out last weekend's action pouring in 32 versus Oklahoma State. I really believe this is the year Pittsburgh gets the monkey off their back and advances to the Final Four. They've been stymied in the past having not reached that point and actually never defeating anybody higher than a #6 seed. Providing Young and DeJuan Blair don't get into early foul trouble, they should outlast Xavier. That wasn't a great Wisconsin team the Musketeers beat last week to get here and their first round win over Portland State was a joke. I'm not sold on this team away from home either. While they prevailed last week against relatively easy foes to reach the Sweet 16, Xavier lost on the road at Richmond, Charlotte, Duquense, and Dayton in conference play. They lost to Duke by 18 points on a neutral floor in December. I firmly believe the Elite Eight team last year that had Drew Lavender, Josh Duncan, and Stanley Burrell was far better than this year's Xavier squad. I also sense the best thing that might have happened to the Panthers is their first-round loss to West Virginia in the Big East tournament. It served as a wake-up call and also should have them very fresh for the big dance. They are 0-2 ATS so far in this tournament and dropped three straight to the number dating back to the Mountaineer game. This team is just too good to continue not getting the bacon. Take Pittsburgh.Comment
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Re: 3-26-09
Stu Finer
2500 Dime Sweet 16 Big Dance Winner #1
Missouri (141) vs Memphis (-4') @ Glendale, AZ - 9:35 p.m. EST
In this battle of Tigers, look for the ones from Memphis to dominate as they'll blast Missouri by double digits tonight. Mizzou just doesn't have the size inside to compete with Memphis as Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart will repeatedly crash the boards and have their way inside. And then there's super frosh Tyreke Evans who runs the show for Memphis. This team just pounded Maryland by 19 points and shot better than 58% from the floor in doing such. They play great defense (ranked fourth nationally) and will force a poor outside shooting Missouri team to make deep shots. It's not happening tonight for a Mizzou team that should've lost to Marquette last Sunday and is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a neutral site dog. Memphis is on spread runs of 20-11 as a chalk and 6-1 in non-conference games, They've won 27 straight games and while it's been a nice run for DeMarre Carroll (tweaked his left ankle yesterday) and Missouri, it comes to a close tonight as John Caliparai's Tigers blow em out.
MEMPHIS (-4') 2500 Dime High Roller
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Stu's 2500 Dime Sweet 16 Big Dance Winner #2
Villanova (148) vs Duke (-2) @ Boston - 9:55 p.m. EST
Villanova benefitted last week from playing its first two games basically at home in Philly against opponents that the Wildcats matched up well against in American and UCLA. No such luck tonight in Boston as Duke continues its high-level of play and covers this small price. The Blue Devils have shot better than 40% from beyond the arc in five straight games (all wins) and they'll be draining treys again tonight. Coach K's club has won 10 of its last 11 games with the lone loss coming in the regular season finale at UNC. Nova has failed to cover in three of its last four overall and is 1-4 ATS in its last five as a neutral site dog. Look for the Devils to throw a variety of defenders, such as Nolan Smith, Elliott Williams and Jon Scheyer at the Cats' Scottie Reynolds in an attempt to frustrate and slow down the Nova scorer. Gerald Henderson and Kyle Singler will keep driving to the hole for inside hoops, or kicking it outside for open looks as Duke scores this win and cover to advance to the Elite Eight.
DUKE (-2) 2500 Dime High Roller
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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #1
Purdue (134) vs UConn (-6') @ Glendale, AZ - 7:05 p.m. EST
Forget about being distracted about possible recruiting violations as those have nothing to do with this UConn team and the Huskies will beat Purdue by double digits tonight. The Huskies blasted UTC and Texas A&M last weekend and tonight the undersized Boilermakers (just one starter over 6-foot-8) will be dominated inside by Jeff Adrien, Hasheem Thabeet and the Huskies. UConn is on ATS runs of 5-1 on neutral courts, 5-2 in non-conference games and 4-1 when laying points on a neutral court. Purdue lost three of its last four regular season games, and then benefitted by playing the Big Ten Tournament close to home in Indianapolis before slipping past both Northern Iowa and Washington last weekend. But they certainly don't have the athletes to stay with the Huskies as Purdue's season draws to a close tonight. Another big performance from Jeff Adrien and the Huskies as they roll.
UCONN (-6') 100 Dimes
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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #2
Xavier (+7) vs Pittsburgh (138') @ Boston - 7:25 p.m. EST
Xavaier has the bulk and size to bang around with Pittsburgh and the Muskateers, who were bounced in the Elite Eight last year, will easily stay inside this number tonight in Boston. Xavier has won and covered three of its last four overall, all on neutral courts, and they've covered four straight non-conference games. They start three players who are all taller than Pitt's tallest (DeJuan Blair) as this team is big at every position. The Panthers are on ATS slides of 1-5 in the Big Dance and 1-4-1 as a neutral site favorite after struggling with both East Tennessee State and Oklahoma State in the first two rounds. Levance Fields is still battling through a groin injury and Pitt is facing a defensively tough Xavier team that has held five of its last eight foes under 60 points. Big effort tonight from B.J. Raymond and the Muskateers as they give Pitt all it can handle in staying inside this price.
XAVIER (+7) 100 Dimes
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Stu's 100 Dime Big Dance Trio Game #3
Xavier (+7) vs Pittsburgh (138') @ Boston - 7:25 p.m. EST
Both of these clubs pride themselves on tough defense and points will come at a premium as this Sweet 16 battle stays under the final price. Pitt has stayed low in five of its last six neutral court affairs and five of its last seven non-conference games. The Muskateers have stayed low in four straight overall and seven straight versus teams with winning records. They've limited their last four opponents to just 52.5 ppg and held seven of their last eight opponents under 60 points. They've got the size to bang with the Panthers and this game will stay under the final total.
UNDER (138') 100 DimesComment
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