Sunday 6/23/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:17 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 6/23,24

June 23, 2024
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays
Sunday, June 23, 2024

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS – FOURTH RACE – POST: 2:13 ET
BEST PLAY: 10-FLOODLITES (3-1)

Forecast: The first timer Floodlights looks intriguing in this four and one-half furlong main track juvenile dash, and in a wide open, unclassified field the son of City of Light looks like a live item, the extreme outside draw notwithstanding. He shows just two published works but the first one was a bullet half mile breeze at Keeneland (:47 flat from the gate) that was the fastest of 35 for the distance and the second a :51 2 half mile breeze that we’ll assume was nothing more than gallop. From the Wesley Ward barn, whose stats with debut runners always is outstanding, this promising colt gets to load last and hopefully breaks first and if can do that he’ll offer good wagering value at or near his morning line of 3-1.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
BELMONT AT THE BIG A – FOURTH RACE – POST: 2:35 ET
BEST PLAY: 2-PIVOTAL MOMENT (7/2)

Forecast: This maiden special weight turf sprint for juveniles is loaded with question marks, but here is what we do know: Pivotal Moment has trained like a stone runner and will be very difficult to outrun if he performs up to expectations. The son of Bolt d’Oro brought $330,000 at the OBS April sale after smoking a furlong in 9 3/5 seconds without much urging at all and has done everything right in recent weeks since joining the Christophe Clement barn. They could very well be others in the lineup that are equally talented (we haven’t seen most of them) but our top pick is a very good athlete with action that is quick and smooth, so if he breaks running it would not surprise us if he made the running and be long gone. Listed at 7/2 on the morning line and with the stable’s “go to” rider J. Rosario getting the call, let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic key.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:18 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 23, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park begins the week with a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

2-Nashing Hill (9/5)-The 5-year-old ships in from Scioto, doesn't make many starts at Nfld and hasn't taken a picture there
(3-0-0-0). On paper should be the winner but doesn't have big gate speed and it might be best to not try to wire the field. Using but can't completely trust.
6-Back In My Day (5-1)-The Roegner trainee drops, but has won and cashed checks versus Open company at Nfld. Will respect chances as the pace could be lively. Needs a sharp steer, if so, can grind its way around and be in position to tackle the leader down the lane.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Big Bad Caviar (5/2)-Has had limited success facing Open Handicap company and now drops. Will probably look to land on the point and not look back. That trip and outcome could happen but not might not be automatic at this class.
3-Son Of Sona (12-1)-Similar to #1, drops from facing Open Handicap competition but this veteran shows a recent win at that level. Best to respect, Keith Kash could work a cozy trip with this post draw and should be a healthy price.
4-Toes In The Water (9/2)-Davis Jr will do the steering, same as last time when she broke at the start. That's a positive in my view and also bumps up here. Stepping up after breaking stride and finishing last is not common. But instead of being suspicious, my play will be to use, as Tye Loy the conditioner, also owns a chunk.

Race 13 (10:24 PM EST)

3-Risenshine Seaside (7/2)-This Burke 5-year-old hasn't had the same success as last year but should be a major player tonight. Ronnie Wrenn steers, he is batting 34% winners on Burke entries and should be forwardly placed off the gate.
5-Liteningonthebeach (5/2)-This trainer driver combo (Bercury-Merriman) is combining for 27% winners and the 4-year-old ships in from the Meadows. Should be player with this post draw and may not have to work too hard to land on the point. This was Merriman's choice over #2 and needs to conserve enough gas early on to be there at the wire.

Race 14 (10:46 PM EST)

1-Incredible Man (1/1)-Finished 2nd at 6/5 and drops again in search of a win. Merriman gets the call and may have met a beatable field. Hard to leave off the ticket and will use despite a tiny price.
2-The Downtown Bus (7-1)-East coast invader had a needed start on 6-14 and put in a no-move mile from the 8-hole. Will take a swing the 9-year-old is here for a purpose and will look for an improved effort in the 2nd start in town. Should have enough gate speed for Kurt Sugg to work a cozy trip.
9-Record Machine (10-1)-This veteran has hit the board in 48% of its Nfld races and has taken 14 pictures. Drops and Chris Lems could get off the gate in good shape as the inside pair should be leaving. Could pop at a price if lands a close-up seat.

$1.00 Late Pick

2,6/1,3,4/3,5/1,2,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:18 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Lone Star Park - Race #3

#4 Brilliant Spin	Price might be OK while this one moves around two turns for the first time, as his two turf tries haven't been that bad. Might be in the right spot heading into the far turn.
#5 Run Bryce Run	He has a right to be tough while trying the local company for the first time with a couple of decent races from Santa Anita on his page, but I imagine the price is going to get a little short.
#1 Young Pope	He'll need something better on the rise today, but I don't think there are a ton of heavy hitters lined up in here, so he's in the mix for another share.
Race Summary	Brilliant Spin should get a good run while right up on the pace throughout, and I'm hoping he'll offer a fair price again today while getting this first route test.

Lone Star Park - Race #6

#8 Sunlit Song	Price might not be much, but he has some stakes form on the page that makes him an obvious threat against this kind of softer group while qualifying for this by way of his winless 2024 campaign.
#4 Saline River	His turf form is pretty strong when isolated from some modest dirt tries on the page, and he has the speed and versatility to track the more committed players early while still getting the jump on any deep threats.
#1 Bizzee Channel	He's not what he was a few years ago, but he is still a decent enough fit with this kind at the local level, and he should find a nice spot while tracking the splits from the fence.
Race Summary	Sunlit Song is probably supposed to win this one while facing an easier group than he has seen in some time, and I think it's a pretty logical race on paper between him and Saline River.

Lone Star Park - Race #7

#4 Just a Sip	Enough of these might be content to press or spy the speed to give her a chance to steal this one with an aggressive ride, as she might still have some upside in the second start off the break and already owns an OK dirt running line.
#9 Honor Cat	Her better stuff would probably do, but she has already come up short at 9/5 and 6/5 with similar at the meet. Maybe the cutback will get her over the top, but I'd want something a bit more appealing on the board than last time.
#8 Marquee Lady	I liked her last, and she wouldn't be any surprise on the rise while spying the speed. Any upside in the third start would keep her in the frame with any of these. Either way, they might have a fun season with her at Remington.
Race Summary	Just a Sip turns back but might still be quick enough to be in the mix early on, as she showed some chasing sprint pace in her debut at Remington last fall. Dangerous from the bell.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gulfstream Park

PURCHASE

Gulfstream Park - Race 5	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1.00 Bet 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 68 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 2:57P
FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (IF NO THREE-YEAR-OLDS ARE ENTERED, OLDER WEIGHT WILL REVERT TO 122 LBS.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. TIZ ERIN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * TIZ ERIN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. REPAYNT: Horse has run a Good R ace within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. REINA MAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
5	TIZ ERIN	5/1	5/2
1	REPAYNT	9/2	5/1
9	REINA MAR	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	TAPPING GIRL	2	15/1	Front-runner	0	0	61.5	50.5	39.0
5	TIZ ERIN	5	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	76	70	88.2	62.6	59.6
1	REPAYNT	1	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	64	60	78.7	56.9	49.9
9	REINA MAR	9	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	64	51.8	52.8	46.3
8	RED HAIRED GAL	8	7/2	Trailer	71	68	63.5	54.1	46.1
7	SILJIM	7	12/1	Trailer	0	0	52.1	52.1	40.6
3	CAJUN GAL	3	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	60.1	45.5	33.5
6	MISS DIZ	6	5/2	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	50.2	50.2	38.7

Unknown Running Style: TIZ D AMAZIN LADY (20/1) [Jockey: Reyes Leonel - Trainer: Gonzalez Javier E].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:19 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Grants PassPURCHASE

Grants Pass - Race 5	$2 WPS $1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Pick 4 (Races 5-6-7-8)
Maiden • 350 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $5,600 • Post: 2:40P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, (INCLUDES UP TO $300 ORC) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * NO SEDONA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NSM TAKE THE CASH: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster P ower Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY BETS ON JET: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Jockey/Trainer combina tion return on investment is at least +20.
3	NO SEDONA	2/1	3/1
6	NSM TAKE THE CASH	8/1	6/1
7	MY BETS ON JET	9/2	9/1
2	EL MOMIAS	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LA BICHOTA	1	12/1	Slow	0	0	7.1	0.0	0.0
2	EL MOMIAS	2	5/1	Average	63	59	4.0	0.0	0.0
3	NO SEDONA	3	2/1	Average	70	70	4.3	0.0	0.0
4	CHICKS BLACK FEATHER	4	10/1	Average/Trouble-prone	0	0	4.7	0.0	0.0
5	EL DRAGON	5	8/1	Fast/Trouble-prone	59	56	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	NSM TAKE THE CASH	6	8/1	Slow	68	62	6.2	0.0	0.0
7	MY BETS ON JET	7	9/2	Fast	60	56	3.3	0.0	0.0
8	CORONA CRYSTAL JP	8	20/1	Slow	0	0	8.6	0.0	0.0
9	CPR MYFAVORITEWAGON	9	15/1	Slow	0	0	8.1	0.0	0.0
10	EZ COWBOY GAME	10	10/1	Average	0	0	5.6	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:19 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Monmouth Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:19pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $19,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#4 RAW POWER (ML=3/1)
#6 SHE CAN SCAT (ML=5/2)
#2 GENERAL ROBINSON (ML=6/1)

RAW POWER - Taking this jockey/conditioner combination is a good decision. Was in a $30,000 Claiming race at Monmouth Park last out. That event had a class rating of 78 and she is moving down in today's race. A certain win candidate. SHE CAN SCAT - Shipped in on June 8th to take the top prize here. Take right back again. Camacho is up for another race today after riding aboard this horse for the first attempt on June 8th and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better. When Camacho and Delgado work together on animals the ROI has been fantastic at +105. GENERAL ROBINSON - I am keen on that last contest on Jun 8th at Monmouth Park where she ran second. This filly is the longer price of the 'split' entry from the barn of Delgado. Getting a weight break of 12 pounds from last race at Monmouth Park on June 8th. Certainly could make the difference in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 HARPER BE GOOD (ML=3/1), #5 LA SIERVA C (ML=9/2), #7 AMY MULE (ML=8/1),

HARPER BE GOOD - Finished sixth on June 2nd after the long layoff. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this contest. Just can't bet on this mount. Didn't show me anything positive last time out or on October 23rd. LA SIERVA C - Had to give me much more in the last race. Never made much of an impact. AMY MULE - 8/1 is too short of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back outings. This pony ran a mediocre speed figure last time out. She shouldn't run better and will probably suffer defeat in today's event running that figure.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Hal - SHE CAN SCAT - At Monmouth Park on Jun 8th this filly posted a speed figure of 76 in her last race. She has the greatest last figure in the field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 RAW POWER on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 10:19 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $26078 Class Rating: 51

FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE, FOUR, FIVE, AND SIX YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 SHESGOTSPIRIT 5/2
# 5 SHE'S SOLID SILVER 2/1
# 1 BACKSEAT BABY 3/1

I've got to go with SHESGOTSPIRIT. This animal is ranked high in this group of animals in earnings per start at the distance/surface. SHE'S SOLID SILVER - Strong jock with handler figures make this horse a very strong pick. Has decent early lick and will probably fare soundly versus this group of animals. BACKSEAT BABY - Very good chance today with second time Lasix. She looks decent in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 11:07 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #7 - Post: 4:11pm - SO - 6.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $65,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating:

#8 GASLIGHT DANCER (ML=3/1)
#1 KING MOONRACER (ML=8/1)
#3 DEVIL'S CAY (ML=10/1)

GASLIGHT DANCER - In this race here, this thoroughbred has clearly shown signs that he likes the grass. His Equibase speed figs are the highest in the field for this distance & surface. This colt is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. Another way to determine class is EPS (earnings per start). This racer has the uppermost in the bunch. I think he'll be close at the finish line. This equine has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Vazquez, and this one could bound home the winner. KING MOONRACER - If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see he has recorded the top speed rating at the distance and surface. A repeat effort right here and this horse has a superb chance to win. Horses out of the barn of Weaver have been solid on the turf. Should perform well in this race. Ran a speedy time for the last quarter on May 18th at Belmont at the Big A. Anything close in this event should get the job done. Weaver drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more knowledge to think this horse is in a good spot at this level. DEVIL'S CAY - Look for this gelding to run better in today's race. Last race at Belmont at the Big A finishing fourth on the soft turf is no sign of his true talent. I seem to always make money betting Morley horses on the turf. That barn has a dominant win percent for this distance/surface. Had a dominant closing move last time around the track, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar performance today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. Horse didn't hit the board in last race, but did beat half the field, and made up ground down the homestretch. A slight improvement and this horse should be right there at the finish line.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LI'L LANG (ML=5/1), #5 BUSY MORNING (ML=5/1), #4 OKALOOSA (ML=8/1),

LI'L LANG - Tough to put your dough on this front-runner. Too much early zip in the event. BUSY MORNING - Much too far back in the first part of the last route race will probably make it tough to make an impact today in this sprint clash. In any event of 6 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in sprint contests recently. Disappointing fig last time out at Gulfstream Park at 1 mile. Don't believe this runner will improve too much today. OKALOOSA - Not likely for this mount to do much this time out. The extended rest time is a troublesome sign. No picnic to back any vulnerable equine in a short distance event if he hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple of months. He probably cannot repeat that last stretch drive effort and win against this group. Doubtful that the speed figure he earned on Oct 12th will be good enough in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 GASLIGHT DANCER on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3,8] Total Cost: $6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-23-2024, 11:08 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Wyoming Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Allowance - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $13800 Class Rating: 76

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2024 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 POLITICAL HOTTIE 10/1
# 4 TEMPTING COWBOY 8/1
# 7 CHILE CARTEL 5/1

POLITICAL HOTTIE is the top bet in this contest and is a decent value bet given the line. She should be given a shot given the competitive speed figs. Going in a short race gives this filly a competitive shot. Reliable average speed figs in short races make this animal a definite contender. TEMPTING COWBOY - The odds may be right on this entrant. Expect a much improved outing with the drop. CHILE CARTEL - With Canales uptop her, this filly ought to be able to break out early in this race. This filly looks good in this race since Canales has a solid win percent with horses going this distance.