Thursday 6/27/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Churchill Downs - Race #3

#4 Strummin	Price might be just a tiny bit better this time around, and while there's a case to be made that he'll be along too late yet again today, there are a lot of unknown variables in this race. Willing to give him the edge on consistency.
#1 Tap Into This	He could be ready to go for a capable team, so get a look at him on the track and tote ahead of this. Rail is no bargain, but it wouldn't be a shock to see him work out a trip.
#7 Bright Skittle	Dirt is a question, but he rallied well in stakes company last time out and might get past some of these in his local debut. In the mix.
Race Summary	Strummin has been an underneath type so far, but I'll take the known commodity with reliable form today in hopes that one of these debuters commands enough cash to keep the price at least a little bit interesting.

Churchill Downs - Race #5

#10 D Day	He drew in from out wide on the AEs when rained over to the main last out, and I am really interested in seeing him get over to the turf. Could see him bringing something a lot better today.
#9 Send Cash	He can be tough at second asking after flashing pace and just fading late, but that kind of pace is dangerous with any upside with that first start under his belt. Respect.
#7 He's Elusive	Think he might have a little longshot appeal in the gimmicks after making only a mild move after getting loose ahead of his last, but that line might be a touch better than it looks at first glance.
Race Summary	D Day showed a little bit of late enthusiasm after a wide debut trip on the main track, but he might have quite a bit of upside while getting over to the turf. Solid lean.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#1 Maylen	Her best stuff might be just a slight bit light for this group, but I think the race shape will flatter her ability to settle off the pace and bring one rally after saving some ground from the rail draw.
#10 Iuka Miss	I think she's supposed to bring something better today after a flat first run off the claim, but she raced for twice this price that day and at least has a little proven form getting past horses.
#7 Nothing But Time	Think she might be the best of the forward players, but there are still a few others in here who figure to chase before they quit and might make her work for it. Consider.
Race Summary	#3 Where Is She and #2 Ghee For the Win both make sense on deeper plays, but I have concerns about both of them. Maylen has some honest, if uninspiring, form that might hold up well if the speed and chasing types give way late.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Delaware Park - Race #1

#5 MS GLORIA JEAN (7-2)	Need only to duplicate latest to win again, today’s Best Bet.
#2 MISS FABIANA (2-1)	Overhauled by odds-on fave, can make good use of her speed in this field.
#3 CHAMPAGNE DANCE (8-5)	Broke maiden for $12,500 in prior dirt start but will be an underlay.
Race Summary	MS GLORIA JEAN executed a major form reversal to spring a 13-1 upset in a six-horse field. She swung 3-wide mid-turn, inhaled a pair of sub 2-to-1 favorites and surged clear in the 4-path at 5F. The added ground and livelier pace flow should help in her repeat attempt. Bet to win and place and play 5-2, 5-3 and 2-5 exactas.

Delaware Park - Race #2

#2 MONEY SONG (6-1)	Won here after arriving from Tampa last year, recent works encouraging.
#1 GEAUX YOSHKA (2-1)	Well-traveled 5yo romped in easier condition two starts back, one to beat.
#4 LITIGANT (4-1)	Returns to Delaware in better form than when he left in the fall.
Race Summary	MONEY SONG recaptured some of his 2023 form in a 6F win three starts back, was cooked in a fast 7F pace next out, then tracked the 44-1 winner for fading in a higher-tagged claiming sprint at Tampa Bay Downs. He worked well on the Delaware Park main track since his return and is worth a win and place bet at a decent price. Also play a 1-2-4 exacta box.

Delaware Park - Race #4

#7 PRINCE MARCO (6-1)	Lightly raced 5yo chased sharpie off layoff, won 5 of 7 starts prior up front
#1 DESERT RULER (8-1)	No match for top one and 0-9 at distance, but he can rally for share on best effort.
#2 REMEMBERING WILBUR (2-1)	Earned his top speed figure in game 6F upset for this barn two back.
Race Summary	PRINCE MARCO chased three-peat winner Borracho (13-48, $603k) while 3-wide and ‘kept on’ to finish third in his first start locally. He should be tighter in his second start after two months away, draws a favorable post with speed to his inside and warrants respect at 6-1 on the morning line. Bet to win and place and play a 7/1,2/ALL trifecta.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

PURCHASE

Penn National - Race 5	W-P-S/ Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta / Daily Double Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 65 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 7:41P
FOR REGISTERED PA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Stalker. SWAN is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SWAN: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Spe ed Figure at the distance/surface. GRAN PATRONA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
3	SWAN	5/2	2/1
1	GRAN PATRONA	6/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	GRAN PATRONA	1	6/1	Front-runner	64	67	73.3	52.9	45.4
4	TOOTALOO KANGAROO	4	7/2	Front-runner	56	58	71.1	55.0	49.0
3	SWAN	3	5/2	Stalker	72	62	76.8	58.8	56.8
6	DANCING CHIME	6	4/1	Trailer	59	47	37.3	45.1	36.1
7	PHONE EATS FIRST	7	6/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	17.1	54.0	47.5
2	IMAGINE RITA	2	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	41.4	31.8	20.8

Unknown Running Style: CARDINAL WAR CRY (6/1) [Jockey: Torres Jomar - Trainer: Salvaggio Jr M W], ROSALIE K (12/1) [Jockey: Salgado Anthony - Trainer: Martin Jr Charles E].

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware ParkPURCHASE

Delaware Park - Race 2	$1 Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / $1 Double / .50 Pick 3 (Races 2-4) .50 EARLY Pick 4 (Races 2-5)
Claiming $5,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $15,500 • Post: 1:00P
(PLUS UP TO 50% OTHER SOURCES) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 27, 2023. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 27, 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 27, 2024 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. CLASS ACTOR is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * CLASS ACTOR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GEAUX YOSHKA: Horse ran ks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LITIGANT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Spee d Figure at the distance/surface.
5	CLASS ACTOR	8/1	4/1
1	GEAUX YOSHKA	2/1	9/2
4	LITIGANT	4/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	CLASS ACTOR	5	8/1	Alternator/Front-runner	83	79	82.4	62.8	56.8
3	JOHN'S PROMISE	3	3/1	Stalker	82	67	70.2	59.7	51.7
4	LITIGANT	4	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	74	46.2	67.2	61.2
1	GEAUX YOSHKA	1	2/1	Trailer	89	78	61.2	80.2	75.7
7	CHROME HEIR	7	8/1	Trailer	75	71	11.8	66.0	54.5
2	MONEY SONG	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	83	82	75.6	61.0	50.5
6	MISCHIEVOUS JUAN	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	77	55.4	58.8	50.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Horseshoe Indianapolis

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $18000 Class Rating: 54

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $15,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 EMERSON'S DREAM 8/5
# 5 CAROLYN'S ANGEL 15/1
# 3 WISE MARY 5/1

EMERSON'S DREAM is my choice. A solid 61 avg class figure may give this mare a distinct class edge against this group. WISE MARY - The equipment change of blinkers going off today should make a difference. Looks very good to be on the front end at the first call.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 4:50pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $28,600 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#2 THATSITTHATSALL (ML=8/1)
#1 TIME TO WATCH (ML=2/1)
#5 PRACTICAL GIZMO (ML=12/1)


THATSITTHATSALL - The jockey and handler combination have a profitable return on investment when they team up. I'm focusing on the class of this magnificent animal, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. Comparing how the horses in this field have fared under similar conditions, I see this animal has the highest speed figure for the distance/surface. This equine brings in a lot of cash per race. Utmost in this race. TIME TO WATCH - Last time, was entered in a race at Woodbine in a race with a class rating of 76. Dropping drastically in Equibase class figure in today's event puts her in a solid position right here. This filly should be at the fitness peak, this far into her form cycle. PRACTICAL GIZMO - My experience tells me to watch out for this horse in this contest

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HOBBIE CLASS (ML=3/1), #7 ROOKIE COURT (ML=7/2), #3 HEKLA'S AURA (ML=6/1),

HOBBIE CLASS - Difficult to wager on at 3/1 odds after the two most recent showings. In any event of 5 furlongs, I like to back a contender that has been looking good in short distance contests recently. ROOKIE COURT - Hard to put your dough on the win end of any mount that finishes second and third as often as this thoroughbred does. HEKLA'S AURA - This mare is always in the mix, but just doesn't get the job done. Difficult to wager on her on the top end.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Go with #2 THATSITTHATSALL on top if we're getting at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21120 Class Rating: 64

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 PAULA M 3/5
# 5 REALITY CHECK 4/1
# 1 RAINBOW SMILES 5/1

PAULA M is the most favorable bet in this race. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Williams have shown strong results recently. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the midpoint of the race. Like the results in the last several races. REALITY CHECK - This filly with Cunningham in the irons makes her a solid contender. Could beat this field given the 52 Equibase Speed Fig earned in her last outing. RAINBOW SMILES - Is difficult not to consider based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 53 avg - of late. A solid 69 avg Equibase class rating may give this filly a distinct class edge against this group of animals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belmont at the Big A - Race #2 - Post: 2:06pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $100,000 Class Rating: 102

Rating:

#5 KHAFRE (ML=8/1)
#1 DONEGAL MOMENTUM (ML=4/5)
#6 LAMBETH (ML=5/1)


KHAFRE - I like when a campaigner wins after shipping in from elsewhere. It shows that they really like the track here. I'll take this gelding to win again. The jock/trainer duo of Davis and Handal has a strong return on investment together. The most recent speed fig of 102 is the top last race speed figure in the group. DONEGAL MOMENTUM - Earnings per start is something that I think can be an important handicapping factor. This racer is ranked numero uno in this group. It looks like Castellano had to become familiar with this colt on May 16th when riding him for the first time. Back aloft again today. Came home fast in the last race at Belmont at the Big A. That type of move bodes well for his chances in this field. LAMBETH - Rode this mount on December 31st and Lezcano is back again in the irons today. The return on investment when Lezcano and Mott partner up is outstanding. Going on Lasix for the 1st time. While a widespread handicapping angle, it's still quite important to know.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 BANK FRENZY (ML=5/2),

BANK FRENZY - This gelding in all probability won't be close at the finish line.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 KHAFRE to win at post-time odds of 7/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5,6] Total Cost: $6