Friday 6/28/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-28-2024, 07:33 AM

Al Cimaglia: Messenger Pace-Yonkers Trot Pick 5 Analysis

June 28, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card featuring the Messenger Pace Final and the Yonkers Trot Final. The first jewel of the pacing triple crown has a $225,000 purse and is carded as Race 7. In Race 8 the first jewel of the trotting triple crown rolls and it has a $300,000 purse. The 0.50 Pick 5 starts in Race 5, it has a $75,000 guaranteed pool, and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5 (8:20 PM EST)

1-Favorite Beach (3-1)-Exits the Per Engblom barn after an efficient win at this level and is now a Travis Alexander trainee. Slides in 3 slots, comes back against the same kind, and will respect chances of doubling up.
2-McAngel (9/2)-Recent races have been dull but has been facing much better. This will be the 2nd start on Lasix, gets post relief, and could take command when the wings fold. This looks like a wake-up spot, but it is a competitive race and can't fully trust.
3-Pure Silky (7/2)-Posted a win in its 1st start for the Bako barn. Does have the gate speed to get the jump on others. This should be a more difficult test but well within reach due to a tactical advantage.
4-Dragons Lucky Lady (5/2)-Not loving at the morning line price as recent form hasn't been much. But raced better last time than the line looked. Came the back half in a quick 55.2, passed a couple down the lane for a change but the fractions were soft. Should get a lively pace here and may finish best of all.

Race 6 (8:40 PM EST)

1-Miss Dottie Mae (7/2)-This will be the 3rd start after a sick scratch and Dottie should have enough jump to protect the rail. Is only 2 for 17 this year but should be forwardly placed and could offer a square price.
3-Mighthavtime N (5-1)-Qualified well on 6-21 and had been idle since 4-19. Will look for the New Zealand bred mare to fire hot in her US debut.
4-Super Girl (3-1)-Doesn't start quickly but can finish in a hurry. Has come 2nd in the last 2 starts and now gets post relief. Should be closer to the leader turning for the wire this time.

Race 7 (9:20 PM EST)

1-Armada Hanover (4-1)-Looked good last week in its Yonkers debut and came with a sharp rally to finish a close 2nd behind the one below. Paced the 2nd half in 55.2 and exploded through the last turn. Tim Tetrick should be on the point early on and could post a win with a pocket ride.
4-Howlenthehills (2-1)-Lost considerable ground in the Elimination on the first turn because of interference due to a breaker. Got the lead anyway and didn't look back. The Alexander pupil was 0-8 as a freshman and is a perfect 6 for 6 this year. Should get an early lead and the race will likely go through the American Ideal colt.

Race 8 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Bargain (10-1)-The Nancy Takter pupil races well on the Yonkers oval (3-2-1-0) but does have breaking issues. Had a very good outing in the Elimination. Took the lead and was looked in the eye but wouldn't be passed. Yannick Gingras knows how to leave and could be on the point or in the pocket on the 1st turn. Should be a player at a price, if minds its manners.
8-Situationship (3-1)-Willing to take a swing here and will fade #1 the 3/2 program chalk who hasn't raced at Yonkers. The Svanstedt pupil is sharp and is looking for its 3rd straight. The 8-post is a challenge but has big gate speed and if gets the top it could be taillights for the rest.

Race 9 (10:00 PM EST)

1-Brave By Design (9/5)-Went gate to wire in last and now bumps up. Fits with this crew and should be in line for a similar trip.
5-P L Oscar (5/2)-Does have good gate speed and that's an advantage but hasn't been finishing off miles. Goes without trotting hopples and that may help. Using because of tactical speed, and this isn't a deep group. Will trust the connections and look for improvement.

0.50 Pick 5

1,2,3,4/1,3,4/1,4/3,8/1,5
Total Bet=$48

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-28-2024, 07:34 AM

Woodbine Pick 4 Friday, June 28

June 28, 2024 | By Frank Carulli

WOODBINE PICK 4
Friday, June 28, 2024

Bet a little, win a lot. That has been the theme of Woodbine’s Pick 4 the last two Fridays, spanning races 4 through 7. Only one favorite won and six of the eight winners paid $11 or more. The base 20-cent wager on the winning combinations returned $186 and $336, respectively. Here’s a look at this week’s Pick 4:
WDB 4th race (2:54 p.m. EST) -- FORTYFIVESEVENTY returns from a 10-month layoff and tries the turf for the first time since 2022 in the day’s featured $40,000 optional claimer at 1-1/16 miles. But she won 2 of her last 3 starts at this level against fillies and mares, ran third in a crowded Woodbine Oaks last summer and has a strong turf race to summon as a 2-year-old, when she finished between two eventual stakes winners. NOVEL is a longshot worth considering in her first start on the grass. She upset the 1-to-9 favorite in her seasonal debut, then raced far back in stakes company. Her sire, Frac Daddy, was Grade 3-placed going long on the turf. SWINGING MANDY could get brave on the lead with apprentice Sophia Vives carrying co-light weight. She led clear into the turn last out at 6F, then re-rallied into photo-finish view after the top pair passed by.
WDB 5th race (3:26 p.m. EST) -- Since July of last year, the eight entrants are a combined 6-for-74 with three runner-up finishes. That bodes well for morning-line favorite ANSELMO, who just missed in the same spot after six months away. He made a 4-wide middle move to the lead, drifted wider in the stretch and got caught by the odds-on favorite. He is today’s solo play in the Pick 4 sequence.
WDB 6th race (3:57 p.m. EST) -- ARASHI returns to the lawn for his second start as a 3-year-old. He won through disqualification to break his maiden on the turf, then ran second in the $250,000 Cup and Saucer Stakes behind My Boy Prince (5-9, $539k), a four-time stakes winner and Grade 1 runner-up. BRITISH ARTILLERY chased a torrid pace and tired to begin his season last year, but he is working smartly for his 2024 seasonal debut for a 21-percent layoff barn. He ‘loomed a threat’ in upper stretch in the Toronto Cup Stakes at one mile but couldn’t stay with the favorites, who ran 1-2.
WDB 7th race (4:28 p.m. EST) -- Nine Ontario-sired maiden claimers are scheduled to go post-ward in the 6-1/2F finale. JOEYBONES is the top pick off a well-bet and useful debut. He takes a magnified class drop in a field that has combined for two seconds and four thirds in 60 starts, gets in light-weighted and gets Lasix. But with plenty of room to spare on the ticket, hit the ‘ALL’ button.

Suggested 20-Cent Ticket
WDB 4th Race: 2, 3, 4
WDB 5th Race: 8
WDB 6th Race: 3, 4
WDB 7th Race: ALL
Cost for 20-cent ticket: $10.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-28-2024, 07:35 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#2 Asternia	There isn't a ton of super serious pace lined up today, and she might be quick enough to control the tempo while dropping out of a decent try in Grade II company. Think it's her race to lose.
#1 Benedetta	I'm going to lean a bit on these top two, as I think they get the right kind of flow up top, and this one has a Grade III placing on her resume and has some obvious upside while dropping out of Grade I company.
#6 Into Champagne	She makes a lot of sense while turning back and drawing a line through the flat Kentucky Oaks effort. The winner that day rolled again a couple weeks back, and this one might be in a great spot to spy the top choice from the start.
Race Summary	Asternia has the kind of pace that might make her dangerous here, but she can also press the splits if someone else wants to have a go at it. Benedetta should bring better today.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#2 Above All Else	There are a couple other potential tracking types, but her last suggests that she could be the controlling pace again today in a race that doesn't have a lot of other committed early burn. Tighter this second time around two turns?
#4 Centuria	She might be a bit more competitive with these than the price will suggest, but she's going to need to find just a little bit punch in the lane if she's going to be seriously threaten the better ones in here.
#10 I Am the Sauce	Wouldn't argue too hard with anyone who landed here, as something like the debut try would keep her in the frame again, and she'd be really tough with any step forward from that. One of the ones in a fun race.
Race Summary	Tough one, but I don't think being two deep here would be the worst idea. Others to consider -- #7 Soundbite is going to take some cash and could drill these off a couple of useful dirt shares to start his career, but I'm just not super excited about him at the likely price. Also kept going back to #6 Stratospheric maybe for a piece despite the fact that his sire is much better on dirt than turf.

Churchill Downs - Race #8

#4 Black Dog	Check her out on the tote and track ahead of this, but she has been working regularly ahead of this for a capable team. Wouldn't be a surprise.
#6 Tizntshelovely	She might be capable of something better than the flat try at 2.22-1 in the debut try, and she's the only one in here with any experience. Not sure how much that will count for, but it might be something.
#11 Olivia's Potion	Lots of potentially interesting debuters lined up today, including her stablemate one stall closer to the fence. #4 Atomic City could be useful in these underneath slots, too.
Race Summary	Tough to separate a lot of these, but Black Dog has a couple important points of appeal for me and appears to be coming into this the right kind of way. #9 Trading Secrets might be worth a small look on stretch tickets at first asking?

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-28-2024, 07:35 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #1

#3 CRIMSON NIGHTS (5-2)	Ran second in triple ‘key’ $15k sprint, hit board twice for $25k as a 3yo.
#4 ECHO SEVEN (2-1)	In the money in 3 of 5 last year, drops below claim level for return.
#1 AZIEL (3-1)	Beaten favorite in 2 of last 3, but both races produced follow-up winners.
Race Summary	CRIMSON NIGHTS has kept busy in the morning, getting ready for her seasonal debut. She has raced for higher claiming tags except when she finished second – ahead of three next-out winners – in her only try at this level. Bet to win and place and key #3 over 1,4,5,6 in the trifecta.

Woodbine - Race #2

#5 MEKO MAKEE (8-1)	Switches from turf, had trouble in $25k sprint on Tapeta that came back strong.
#1 MOON OVER EGBERT (3-1)	Like top pick, should benefit from projected lively pace scenario.
#7 CELENTANO (7-2)	Gets class relief, has tactical speed and better post to use it from.
Race Summary	MEKO MAKEE lacked late kick in a well-bet turf sprint, now returns to the synthetic track, where he last ran for $25,000. He was ‘throttled down’ behind a wall of horses on the backstretch, made a mild bid and flattened out, but the race produced two next-out winners and a runner-up who averaged a 71 Beyer speed figure. Bet to win and place and play a 1-5-7 exacta box.

Woodbine - Race #3

#3 LEFT IN MY DUST (20-1)	Monster move from far, far back in debut, steps up in class.
#7 VINI VIDI VICI (3-1)	First foal out of a stakes-placed sprinter who earned $443k.
#1 LEMON TWIST (20-1)	Longshot worked well on synthetic track, then showed speed on turf in debut.
Race Summary	LEFT IN MY DUST is a must use in all gimmick wagers at 20-1 on the morning line. He could win with an alert start, something that evaded him in his debut. He spotted the field a city block, then made an eye-catching 6-wide move on the turn that he sustained until the final 100 yards. Bet to win and place and play a 1-3-6-7 exacta box.