Saturday 6/29/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2024, 10:28 AM

Race of the Week: Saturday's Highlander at Woodbine

June 26, 2024 | By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:
An $870 score in the Salvator Mile in this space last time we convened provides summer momentum into Saturday's big card at Woodbine. Five stakes races are offered in greater Toronto, featuring 2023 King's Plate hero Paramount Prince and 2023 Beverly D / EP Taylor heroine Fev Rover in separate events. My focus will be on the turf sprinters clashing in Race 7, the $200,000 Grade 2 Highlander.

Field Depth:
Grade 2 winner FILO DI ARIANNA has the field's signature win and has clearly held the strongest company lines overall. OCEANIC is Grade 2-placed and has the second-best strength of schedule. Stakes winners include SECRET RESERVE and WITTY.

Pace:
For a 6-furlong turf sprint, there's not a committed speedball. STEP FORWARD has shown early interest on synthetic, while SECRET RESERVE figures to pop from the rail. You won't want to be a deep closer in this field if you expect to take the top prize.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

#1-SECRET RESERVE: Only 3 of 23 lifetime starts have on turf, so there's no certainty he'll show the expected early speed that looks possible. Best case is if he pops and fires, taking them as far as he can.

#2-COUNTY FINAL: Cutting back from 5 straight 2-turn races, the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap pacemaker didn't show enough in prior turf sprints a year ago to give serious backing here. Less appealing of the uncoupled Saffie Joseph Jr. stablemates compared to Saratoga Flash.

#3-OCEANIC: Big-time late threat was runner-up in this race last year and might very well be the horse to beat if the pace situation looked a bit hotter. Sparkled late at Keeneland in a very fast race in his only start this year and could be better than ever at age 7.

#4-SARATOGA FLASH: Versatile running style in routes, it will be curious to see what Adam Beschizza can work out in terms of pace in his first time aboard the veteran. His best races are near the front, and given the shorter trip, look out if he's 1-2-3 into the far turn while freshened since March and off a bullet workout.

#5-OLD CHESTNUT: Fourth-place finisher in the '23 Highlander has lost 10 straight because he tends to hang and flatten out late in races. Better on turf than synthetic and could improve with the return to his preferred footing.

#6-FILO DI ARIANNA: The class of the field has a versatile turf sprint running style that will be handy on Saturday and should be right in the mix. Went to the front when paired with Kazushi Kimura and the Mark Casse barn goes back to that rider who's had success with this 8-year-old.

#7-HUNT MASTER: Allowance performer has been bounced around surfaces and distances and doesn't appear at the turf sprint level of some of his competition. His last 2 riders have jumped saddles to ride competitors in the Highlander.

#8-STEP FORWARD: Potential early speed player has been more effective on synthetic than turf in his career, but with only 9 lifetime starts it's too early to make that full declaration. Solid Tapeta sprint last out in his first stakes bid and has some upside for Mark Casse.

#9-WITTY: Deep closer fires with remarkable consistency given his running style, landing exacta finishes in 9 of his last 10 starts. It's hard to be 16-for-22 in the exacta rallying from the clouds in turf sprints. Curious to see blinkers removed, but his form without them prior was pretty similar. Outside draw and long stretch at WO are plusses for his style.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
FILO DI ARIANNA has been facing the best turf sprinter in America recently, Cogburn, and should get a dynamite trip here near the front against easier foes than that one.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
SARATOGA FLASH has been double-digit odds in his last 3 starts and could be overlooked again Saturday.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$65 exacta FILO DI ARIANNA over OCEANIC. $35 exacta FILO DI ARIANNA over WITTY.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-27-2024, 10:29 AM

Scott Shapiro: Churchill & Woodbine Saturday Picks

June 27, 2024 | By 1/ST BET
Saturday is a big day of racing both in Louisville and Toronto and Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are celebrating with a promotion involving the cards at Churchill Downs and Woodbine Racetrack. Simply bet at least $100 on the Stephen Foster Day card at Churchill and $100 or more on the Canada Racing Festival Card at Woodbine and score a $25 bonus. This would be a fun promotion on average cards, but it is that much better given the high quality of racing at these two venues on Saturday.

Here is how I plan to go about earning my $25:

Saturday, Churchill Downs

Race 5:

There should be an honest early pace at the very least in this first-level allowance event for 3YO fillies at two-turns. I am hopeful #12 Yes Indeed will be able to navigate a favorable off the pace trip from her far outside draw. The $850,000 daughter of Bolt d’Oro has raced three times thus far, including a pair of runs at a route of ground and has the most upside in this group. Things did not go her way on debut in New Orleans when she got off to a slow start and ran a much-better than looks seventh but she bounced back in a big way in her second start when she stretched out and got a much more favorable voyage. She ran fine in her first start against winners at Keeneland in April before heading to the sidelines for a nearly three-month break but once again did not have a great trip. With several morning drills under her belt since her last race, the OBS April 2022 purchase should be set for a career best performance at a playable 6-1-morning line price. I will bet her to Win and play a Daily Double into my top choice in the sixth.

Wagers:
$30 Win 12
$10 Daily Double 12-5
Total = $40

Race 6

This second-level allowance event at a mile and a sixteenth features a number of horses who probably have already seen their best days but that is not the case for #5 Hurry Hurry. The son of Accelerate is 4 for 10 in his career with one of those victories coming over this surface back on May 10. Trainer Matthew Sims has been patient with this colt and thus far it has paid off. Hurry Hurry finished a non-threatening third at this level last out but meets a softer group in here and should be ready to get back to his best in his third start off the break. He should be rolling late under Luan Machado.

Wager: $30 Win 5

Race 11: Stephen Foster (G1)

Admittedly, I had a tough time getting past the top choices in this year’s Foster. #2 First Mission is the deserving favorite off of his four-length victory over the off going in the Alysheba (G2) on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. The Street Sense colt has done very little wrong thus far and is likely to find his way to the front end. #9 Skippylongstocking is extremely likely to go off as the second choice and should sit just off First Mission early on. The son of Exaggerator has earned nearly $2.3 million and has proven he can take his game on the road. These two stand out a bit against this field. I expect one to win.

With the likelihood of a logical winner, the value is likely to come underneath in the exotics where I am hoping to squeeze #1 Pyrenees into the number. The Into Mischief colt has not run as fast as First Mission or Skippylongstocking but has improved steadily and could be sitting on a career best at the right time. The Cherie DeVaux trainee has been up close to the early pace in his last few starts but I expect him to sit more of a mid-pack ground saving trip on Saturday with Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks winning jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. back aboard.

Wagers:
$2 Trifecta Wheel 2+9 with 1 with 2+4+5+9 = $12
$2 Trifecta Wheel 2+9 with 2+4+5+9 with 1 = $12
$ 3 Exacta 2+9 with 1 = $6

Total +$30

Saturday, Woodbine

Race 1:

The Canada Racing Festival kicks off with a maiden special weight for 2YOs conducted at six-furlongs over the sod and I expect a big move forward for #6 Mobula. The Twirling Candy filly broke from the rail on debut and was caught along the inside in a three-horse battle on the front end before understandably tiring late. Trainer Nathan Squires is just 1 for 9 over the last 30 days but five of his starters have hit the board, so he is clearly sending out live runners. With the invaluable racing experience under this gal’s belt and a more favorable outside draw, the Keeneland September 2023 purchase makes for an interesting option to get things rolling up north.

Wager: $20 Win 6

Race 6: Selene Stakes (G3)

The Selene is the first of five graded stakes events on the Canada Racing Festival card and there is no doubt #7 Witwatersrand merits big respect off of her dominant four-length romp in a seven-furlong non-graded stake last month. The Qatar Racing filly has won 3 of 4 over this surface and has already won at a route of ground last year, but I prefer #6 Waves of Mischief at what should be a better price. The Into Mischief filly won going two-turns on debut at Keeneland and then was beaten in her first start against winners in the Hilltop at Pimlico. Trainer Brendan Walsh often means business when shipping to Toronto posting a 4 for 22-record at Woodbine over the last three years with an ROI of $2.94. Walsh’s addition of blinkers should help Waves of Mischief move forward in her third lifetime try.

Wager: $40 Win 6

Race 8: Dominion Day Stakes (G3)

Last time out, #6 Paramount Prince was beaten to the lead in his first start in nearly three months. That seems unlikely on Saturday where on paper there is very little early speed signed on in this 9-furlong event over Woodbine’s all-weather surface. The Society’s Chairman gelding has been unable to get to the wire first thus far in his career when stalking just off the pace but when he controls the early tempo, he has proven tough to get by. That should be the case in his second start off the bench with regular rider Patrick Husbands back aboard. Gate-to-wire in the Dominion Day!

Wager: $40 Win 6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:50 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays - 6/29/24

June 29, 2024

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL PRIME PLAYS
Saturday, June 29, 2024

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS – 7th RACE – POST: 3:52 ET
Prime Play: 5-Win for the Money (9/2)

Forecast: We’re not entirely sure that Win for the Money can duplicate the quality of his highly rated win in a listed stakes at Gulfstream Park last month but in his present form we wouldn’t be surprised if he extends his winning streak to three in this year’s edition of the Wise Dan S.-G3. The rapidly developing son of Mohaymen earned a career top 102 Beyer speed figure in victory while benefitting from a perfect, pace stalking trip, and in a race that projects to have a modest early pace the five-year-old gelding is likely to enjoy a similar journey and have every chance to upset the even money morning line favorite, Ottoman Fleet (GB), who is proven at this level but not necessarily faster on numbers. Based on the discrepancy in price, ‘Money is worth a reasonable gamble at or around 9/2.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS – 8th RACE – POST: 4:25 ET
Prime Play: 2-Shotgun Hottie (4-1)

Forecast: Scylla deserves the favorite’s role in this year’s renewal of the Fleur de Lis S.-G2 over nine furlongs on dirt, having won four of six career starts including three for three over the local main track, most recently the Shawnee S.-G3 over this track and distance earlier this month. But at 6/5 on the morning line, she won’t offer much wagering value facing her sternest assignment ever, so let’s pivot to the tough-as-nails older mare Shotgun Hottie, listed at a much more enticing 4-1 on the morning line. Fresh from a career top performance in a nearly six length score in the Alaire DuPont Distaff Stakes at Pimlico last month, the daughter of Gun Runner always has been just a cut below the best in her division but based on her recent dominating score she’s never been better and is facing a group her best race can handle. With a lovely second flight, stalking style that will provide every chance for a repeat win, the Cherie DeVaux-trained five-year-old offers an excellent money making opportunity in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS – 9th RACE – POST 4:58 ET
Prime Play: 1-Green Light (3-1)

Forecast: At first glance the lightly raced Green Light appears to be ambitiously placed in the listed American Derby after destroying much softer maidens over this course and distance last month in his third career start. But based on numbers and the projected race flow, the son of Hard Spun seems highly likely to leave lower on the tote than his morning line of 3-1 and in fact will be a solid favorite and one to beat. In his maiden score, the R. Brisset-trained sophomore pressed the pace one off the rail to the head of the lane before quickening when given his cue to draw off effortlessly like a good colt in a 10 length blow out. In a race that promises to produce soft early splits, ‘Light should inherit the role as the controlling speed from his good inside draw (or simply settle into a soft stalking spot) and then take it from there.

__________________________________________________ ____________________________
CHURCHILL DOWNS – 12th RACE – POST 6:32 ET
Prime Play: 8-Pipsy (Ire) (7/2)

Forecast: Pipsy (Ire) finished an excellent second in her debut last summer in Ireland behind a subsequent stakes winner while more than seven lengths clear of the rest. She then then reeled off three straight victories, including a listed stakes affair before taking the rest of the year off. She returned to competition in the Soaring Softly S.-G3 in her U.S. debut at Aqueduct last month with a simply mind-boggling performance. The daughter of Kodiac-GB dwelt at the start in the six furlong dash to spot the field a half dozen lengths, but miraculously ran past her rivals with a furious late kick to be up in time like a filly with enormous quality. Despite her last-to-finish performance, the diminutive, quick-actioned filly actually owns a ton of early speed, and if she manages to leave with her company she should be more than capable of wiring the field. She’s listed at 7/2 on the morning line and we’d be thrilled if we could get it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:51 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late PIck 4 Analysis

June 29, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Hoosier Park has a 12-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and the sequence will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9 (9:56 PM EST)

1-Grand Revival (5/2)-Didn't set the world on fire in Kentucky. Shipped back and raced evenly to finish 3rd versus straight Open company. Now gets some class relief and returns to face the same kind it beat on April 6. Should get a cozy trip, and if so, has no excuse for not taking a picture.

Race 10 (10:18 PM EST)

1-Lyin' Eyes (3-1)-Beaten chalk versus the same type in last should get an efficient trip. Does well racing near the top of the stack and that's where this girl should be.
3-Jada Caroline (7/2)-Comes off a sharp win in a quick mile and is now looking for its 3rd straight. Regular pilot Atlee Bender should be aggressive at the start and could be right there at the wire again.
5-Teelatini (6-1)-Went off at 1/5 and didn't disappoint on 6-22 and now steps-up to face a much tougher group. The price should be right to take a swing in the 2nd start on Lasix. Should be rolling down the lane, and could catch the leader if in striking range at the head of the stretch.

Race 11 (10:40 PM EST)

3-Adashious Hanover (4-1)-Picked up a win with a sharp drive by Trace Tetrick and now faces a bigger test. Tetrick could put this mare in a position to win and should offer a square price.
5-Elegant A (10-1)-Won, then stepped up to this level and didn't really have a chance. Should get a better trip and might surprise at a big price.
8-Walkin On Sunshine (7/2)-Beat straight Open company but was DQ'd last time. Faces easier, the post makes the price and there should be an honest pace. This mare can leave, get a good seat, and then look to roll by down the lane.

Race 12 (11:02 PM EST)

8-Bridge To Jesse's (9/2)-Was a beaten chalk against this kind in last, and at 11 doesn't bring its A-game every night. This is an ugly race, could get off the gate here and land a decent seat. Will rely on John De Long to put the veteran in play and be in the hunt at the wire.
9-Deadline Hall (7/2)-Makes its HoP debut and should relish the company. Has been working on smaller ovals but took a 3-year-old mark last year at M1 in 153.3. This is a race without much form. Although 0-8 this year, this could be a spot to wake up as this is a field full of question marks.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

1/1,3,5/3,5,8/8,9
Total Bet=$18

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:51 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #9

#1 Green Light	He validated a solid race back in April with a graduation romp here last month, and he's got a touch of speed in a race with nothing but finishers lined up. Slow walks them home?
#4 Lagynos	He has been landing shares with some good groups this year, and he might wind up in a decent spot on the fence if this group starts to bunch up on a modest pace. One of the ones.
#8 Brilliant Bertie	He has really been putting things together in those recent starts, and I think he's probably quick enough to find a good spot spying the top choice while never being too far off it.
Race Summary	Green Light drilled 10 others last time out -- rolling home by more than 10 -- and his mild tactical ability should serve him very well in a race without any confirmed pace. Graduation riser might be the one to beat.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#2 First Mission	Hate to be here at too short a price because I'm not sure his best stuff is really all that much better than a few others in here, but I think his reliable form makes him the right one. He should be in a perfect spot right behind the pace from the start. Pair him up with the next guy at a price?
#3 Happy American	His form has typically been hot and cold in spurts, so I'm wondering if his last was a hint at something better. He's in deep water today, but he can be a reliable finisher and was third in this spot last year at Ellis. One-run finisher for a piece?
#9 Skippylongstocking	Not much to argue with on his better stuff -- or the recent form. That said, he has always found this kind of company just a tiny bit deep, and I wouldn't want to be here at anything too short on the board. Obvious player with a great trip waiting for him from the outside. Tough call.
Race Summary	Draw a line through First Misson's Pegasus World Cup and you're left with pretty compelling (and imposing) form. First-jump run should get him home here, so I'll see if Happy American can hold his form another race and share again this year over a surface he has historically liked.

Churchill Downs - Race #12

#11 Just Better	I expected maybe a touch better from her last out, but she caught a logical and tough winner in the Hilltop and might have more to offer today. Tactical pace should be able to work out a trip from the high draw, and I like that Dettori stays here instead of the Penn Oaks winner.
#8 Pipsy	She flew home going short to land her North American debut off the bench last month at Aqueduct, but she is still an unknown quantity on the stretch around two turns -- that sprint punch doesn't always translate. She's fun, but also a probable underlay.
#2 Mo Fox Given	She was in the frame with some of these at 58/1 in that Keeneland Grade II in April, and she wasn't too far off again last time out. Finisher can rally for another piece.
Race Summary	Just Better would feel extremely playable at anything like the 12/1 ML offering, as she might still have a little upside and should get a perfectly timed run from close range with Dettori up.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:52 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Laurel Park - Race #2

#2 MALINOIS (8-1)	Strong recovery from stakes flop, won last three starts at 1-1/16 miles.
#3 LUIGI’S SPIRIT (2-1)	Six-figure Laurel earner lost at 1-to-5 odds in the mud in lone try since February.
#1 MAGICAL MONARCH (7-2)	Lone four-race winner in the field, three by 9-plus lengths.
Race Summary	MALINOIS won three in a row at this distance while ascending through conditions, was eased in the Tesio Stakes and bounced back with his top speed figure when second to the favorite at Delaware Park. He’s set to surpass $100,000 in earnings as a 3-year-old in 2024 and is worth a win and place bet.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#6 HAPPY UNION (4-1)	Projects right trip and the right price in bid for her first win in 2024.
#5 MIT MAZEL (2-1)	Laurel Park lover hasn’t raced in more than a year, let alone for a $7,500 tag.
#1 SHELL BELLE (7-2)	Finished first or second in 7 of last 10 starts, most going a route of ground.
Race Summary	With plenty of speed in the field and two of the favorites returning after voided claims by the veterinarian, HAPPY UNION offers a safe alternative at a decent price. She rallied to finish in the money in 4 of 5 starts this year but has yet to break through with a victory. Bet to win and place.

Laurel Park - Race #7

#2 SWILL (9-5)	Rally at 6F two back was slowed by stretch ‘float,’ but he should sit similar trip.
#7 FIVE DREAMS (6-1)	Dueled through rapid splits at Parx before trip-sitting longshot caught him late.
#3 THE JUDGE AND JURY (5-2)	Well-traveled 5yo tries to regain top form at track where he last won.
Race Summary	SWILL, re-claimed by Russell for $40,000, tries a long sprint for the first time in more than a year. But he could work out an ideal trip as he did two starts back, circling wide on the turn, only to float wide at the top of the stretch and get beat a length. Bet to win and place.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:52 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Churchill Downs
PURCHASE

Churchill Downs - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Pick 5 (8-12)
Stakes • 1 1/8 Miles • Dirt • Ages 4 and up • CR: 105 • Purse: $500,000 • Post: 4:25P
FASIG-TIPTON FLEUR DE LIS S. - GRADE 2 FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * SHOTGUN HOTTIE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FREE LIKE A GIRL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. SCYLLA : Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. XIGERA: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. OCCULT: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	SHOTGUN HOTTIE	4/1	5/1
1	FREE LIKE A GIRL	6/1	6/1
4	SCYLLA	6/5	7/1
6	XIGERA	9/2	8/1
5	OCCULT	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	FREE LIKE A GIRL	1	6/1	Stalker	105	100	91.4	91.6	87.6
2	SHOTGUN HOTTIE	2	4/1	Stalker	103	104	86.0	99.6	94.6
6	XIGERA	6	9/2	Stalker	102	96	84.8	88.2	79.2
4	SCYLLA	4	6/5	Stalker	98	103	65.8	97.6	91.6
3	TAXED	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	97	100	73.0	93.2	84.7
5	OCCULT	5	6/1	Trailer	96	95	74.0	98.2	89.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:53 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Emerald Downs
PURCHASE

Emerald Downs - Race 7	$1 Daily Double / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta $.10 Superfecta
Optional Claiming $30,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 98 • Purse: $25,500 • Post: 4:42P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $12,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $30,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER IN 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $30,000 (MAIDEN RACES, CLAIMING RACES AND STARTERS RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. COASTAL JAZZ is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * COASTAL JAZZ: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. FALSELY ACCUSED: Horse has a TrackMa ster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DIRT ROAD RED: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. YOU'RE THE CAUSE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	COASTAL JAZZ	7/2	7/2
1	FALSELY ACCUSED	12/1	5/1
3	DIRT ROAD RED	9/5	9/1
5	YOU'RE THE CAUSE	6/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	COASTAL JAZZ	4	7/2	Front-runner	92	92	112.8	86.3	81.8
1	FALSELY ACCUSED	1	12/1	Stalker	99	93	89.0	93.6	88.1
3	DIRT ROAD RED	3	9/5	Stalker	91	90	66.9	86.4	80.9
5	YOU'RE THE CAUSE	5	6/1	Trailer	95	86	69.8	85.2	77.2
6	CHUCKANUT BAY	6	5/2	Trailer	86	86	69.2	68.3	60.8
2	EVER A REBEL	2	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	86	85	75.6	74.2	63.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:53 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Optional Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $105000 Class Rating: 100

BAQ - R9 - FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $18,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON $45,000 IN 2024 OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING PRICE OF $80,000. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER IN 2024 ALLOWED 3 LBS. SUCH A RACE IN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SUBROGATE 7/2
# 1 REPO ROCKS 2/1
# 3 FACTUALLY CORRECT 12/1

SUBROGATE seems to be the wager in here. Wagerers ought to take a good look at this one as this colt has one of the best win percentages at this distance in this group. Duarte has him trained admirably to break promptly out of the gate. With a respectable 107 speed figure last time out, will definitely be a factor in this contest. REPO ROCKS - He has been running well and the Equibase speed figs are among the strongest in this group. Make a note that this one runs with second time Lasix today. FACTUALLY CORRECT - Looks quite good versus this group and ought to be one of the front-runners. Ran a sharp last race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:53 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Lone Star Park - Race #2 - Post: 2:03pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,500 Class Rating: 95

Rating:

#5 COUSIN LARRY (ML=9/2)
#1 AZTEC FIRE (ML=7/2)
#4 CALL OF HONOR (ML=4/1)

COUSIN LARRY - The way this race sets up this gelding will be in perfect position when they dash for the finish. The latest speed rating of 97 is the highest last race speed rating in the group. AZTEC FIRE - Valdezjiminez was aboard this colt last time around the track and was impressed enough to take the equine right back. Another way to assign class is earnings per race. This thoroughbred has the highest in the group. I think he'll be close at the finish line. CALL OF HONOR - After the contest aboard this horse on April 7th, the jock is going to be in tune with the gelding much better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 KOLOMIO (ML=3/1), #6 JUSTICE DEPARTMENT (ML=6/1), #2 MO SATURDAYS (ML=6/1),

KOLOMIO - This morning-line favorite probably needs at least one race to get back into shape. Pass on him today. JUSTICE DEPARTMENT - I'd like to see more hospitable recent showings with morning line odds of 6/1. MO SATURDAYS - Don't believe this entrant will make an impact in today's race. That last speed figure was run-of-the-mill when compared with today's class rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #5 COUSIN LARRY on the win end if we get at least 7/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[1,4,5] with [1,4,5] with [1,2,4,5,6] with [1,2,4,5,6] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:54 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $41000 Class Rating: 82

FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 PANCHO BARNES 6/1
# 6 DANZINGWITH MAXINE 5/1
# 11 DONITA ROSE 4/1

PANCHO BARNES figures to be the bet in here. Shows evidence of the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 67 speed figure which is one of the most competitive in this group of horses. With a respectable 67 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this competition. DANZINGWITH MAXINE - Is hard not to look at based on speed figs which have been solid - 76 avg - of late. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figures of this group of horses in her last contest. DONITA ROSE - Earning some good money in dirt sprint races. Looks very good for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid figures in dirt sprint races as of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-29-2024, 09:54 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Belterra Park - Race #3 - Post: 12:15pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#8 C C GRAND (ML=9/2)
#7 FROSTED QUEEN (ML=6/1)
#5 BACK UP GHOST (ML=5/1)
#2 KERLO'S CAUSE (ML=7/2)

C C GRAND - Ouzts rode this racer for the initial time last out and comes right back this race. I'm optimistic this filly will run well today. Last work was 2nd fastest of the day, which tells me she's sharp right now. FROSTED QUEEN - Lone speed horses can be tough to run down. Here's a lone speed freak facing sluggish sorts today. The jock/trainer tandem of McKee and Ortiz has a strong ROI together. Looking at today's class figure, this horse is meeting an easier group than last time around the track at Belterra Park. BACK UP GHOST - You always have to be on the prowl for money making jockey/conditioner combos; we have one right here. Faced tougher last out at Belterra Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this animal on my list of contenders in this race. KERLO'S CAUSE - Just look at her last speed figure, 69. That one looks good in this group. Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is encountering an easier field than last out at Belterra Park. This one has increased her speed figs in each of the last two races. That kind of progress is worth taking a look at.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SILVERY MOON (ML=5/2), #1 SACRED CONNECTION (ML=4/1), #4 ELORA (ML=8/1),

SILVERY MOON - This pony ran a most unsatisfactory speed figure last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely lose today running that figure. SACRED CONNECTION - Will be tough for this entrant to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the vulnerable competitors list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #8 C C GRAND to win if you can get odds of 5/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass