Sunday 6/30/24 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:23 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Prime Plays - 6/30/24

June 30, 2024

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL PRIME PLAYS
Sunday, June 30, 2024

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Churchill Downs – Fourth Race – Post: 2:14 ET
Prime Play: 4-So There She Was

Forecast: She’s the only maiden in the seven runner Debutante Stakes field but California shipper So There She Was displayed sufficient ability in her Santa Anita debut to earn a trip to Kentucky and rate top billing in this listed six furlong affair for juvenile fillies. A fast-finishing second in that highly rated four and one-half furlong main track dash, the D. O’Neill-trained filly appeared a bit green and lacked focus during the early stages but after figuring things out took hold to rally from nine length back to be beaten less than three while providing strong evidence that she should very much appreciate the extra three-sixteenths of a mile of today’s trip. A sharp recent half mile gate breeze in :47.3hg (14th fastest of 106, best of a team) indicates a forward move is quite likely so at 7/2 on the morning line the daughter of Munnings should be lucrative in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics.

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Belmont at the Big A – Eighth Race – Post: 4:42 ET
Prime Play: 7-Cupid’s Heart

Forecast: Cupid’s Heart has been away since last fall but is ideally drawn outside in a race without much speed to win off the bench in his seven furlong first level allowance dash for fillies and mares. She has a history of firing fresh, shows a steady and consistent series of drills to have her fit and ready, numbers that are fast enough to win, and hails from a barn that has excellent stats with layoff runners. “Win Rider” J. Castellano picks up the mount, so with much in her favor the five-year-old B. Levine-trained mare seems quite solid at 7/2 on the morning line.

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Los Alamitos – Eighth Race – Post 4:30 PT
Prime Play: 3-A. Z. Wildcat

Forecast: A. Z. Wildcat, a $200,00 Keeneland September yearling purchase last year, makes her debut in this five furlong maiden special weight dash for juvenile fillies and has looked the part in morning drills for trainer J. Sadler. There are no graded stakes winners appearing in the first four generations of her pedigree but the daughter of Munnings, a strong, sizeable, athletic-appearing filly, commanded a hefty final bid through the ring due to the physical specimen that she is. After a series of sharp, breezing drills that should have her fit and ready, ‘Wildcat very likely will be hard to outrun. She’s listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and deservedly so.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:24 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

June 30, 2024 | By Al Cimaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 11 (9:40 PM EST)

3-Coop A Loop (5/2)-Drops and lands in a spot to post another win similar to the score on 6-16. Hunter Myers takes over for Ronnie Wrenn, could get the top off the gate and not look back.
7-Cyclone Banner N (5-1)-Bumps after trying to go gate to wire and finished 2nd. Did come a close 2nd on 6-9 trying to wire the field at this same class. Could beat this kind with a pocket trip and that appears possible.

Race 12 (10:02 PM EST)

1-Keystone Phoenix (5-1)-Raced evenly after being off for 15 days before its Nfld debut. Billy Davis Jr can get the top and he will try to go the distance. At the morning line price, it's best to respect the possibility of successfully wiring the field.
3-Fly Charlie Fly (7-1)-Hasn't been leaving but has enough gate speed to get a close-up seat. Beat this kind in early April but needs a sharp drive to get a winning trip.
6-Elliot Moose (3-1)-Broke stride in last with Braiden Rhoades steering and now Aaron Merriman grabs the lines. Wouldn't want a short price but the Merriman-Bill Rhoades combo has posted 23% winners and will use with the driver change.

Race 13 (10:24 Pm EST)

1-Statement Made A (2-1)-Won 2 back with Merriman in the bike. That picture came at this class from the 2nd tier. Looks like a must use at a tiny price.
9-Cowboy Cool (7/2)-Drops back to a more competitive level but is only 1-15 at Nfld. Might be able to get the pocket behind the chalk, and look to roll by down the lane.

Race 14

1-Haste Make Waste (5-1)-Has won 4 of 17 at Nfld, takes a significant drop in class and could offer a square price. Recent form has been poor. But could hang around against this kind, get a cozy trip and be there at the wire.
3-Bettor Than Spring (7/5)-The morning line chalk makes the 2nd start since 3-6. Came off the bench with a dull try at the Meadows. Should be better after a needed start and the veteran knows how to win at Nfld (94-29-21-13), but the short price is tough to swallow.
7-Hes A Sweetheart (20-1)-Meadows shipper should be a big price, and has 1 win in 5 starts at Nfld. If Kurt Sugg leaves and gets a close-up seat chances for success go up.

$1.00 Late Pick 4

3,7/1,3,6/1,9/1,3,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:25 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Churchill Downs - Race #6

#7 This is Uscar	Toss the turf stakes try a couple starts back and you're left with some fairly imposing main-track form, and he might find a great spying spot while drawn outside of some more serious pace players.
#2 Otto the Conqueror	While I really respect World Record from the fence, I think he's going to get a tough trip on the rise into stakes company while this guy should be in a dreamy spot pressing the splits. In the mix.
#6 Raging Torrent	He's not super well-known for getting past horses late, so I have a little concern about a couple other forward players lined up with him today. That said, I'm not sure where his last one came from but a repeat would probably make him a winner again.
Race Summary	This is Uscar might offer a decent price while stepping back into stakes company, and I'm not totally sure he's overmatched while trying this kind of group on the main track.

Churchill Downs - Race #10

#7 Charge It	It has been some time since he saw a group like this, and he might appreciate the bit of class relief with guys like Cody's Wish and White Abarrio in his recent company lines. Tracking pace can land this.
#9 Cagliostro	Those who were live to big scores with him at 7.85-1 last out are probably still reeling -- he looked like a sure thing in midstretch before getting worn down by the chalk, and you can actually see that kind of issue in the running lines from several of his races...he makes a big move but just can't quite sustain it to the wire. This trip might fix that.
#6 Extra Anejo	He did what he was supposed to do when dropping out of Grade I company off the bench last time out, and this is a really reasonable spot for him to step back into stakes waters. One of the ones.
Race Summary	Haven't even listed #3 Zozos, who is probably the one to beat. I worry he's overbet with form that might not be that of a true standout in here. Charge It has some really tough company lines on his page and might still be the third choice.

Churchill Downs - Race #11

#5 Indy's Halo	Not sure if her late-running sprint efforts will translate here, but she'll probably be an OK price while trying the boys and might have some upside on the move to the turf. There are a few in here with some potentially unreliable speed, and she could come alive late.
#7 Rock N Roll Bolt	He's getting short on excuses as he heads into this 11th career start, but there are a couple of halfway decent names in the turf company lines, and the surface switch might help him offer a bit more today.
#2 Herchee	Price should be solid on this debuter, and I'm interested enough on paper to make sure to take a look on the track ahead of this. Might like the trip.
Race Summary	#8 Ahandfulofcandy showed some positional pace on the main in the debut try, but he is probably overbet here on the surface switch. Think a lot of these are reasonable options while not being all that compelling, so Indy's Halo might not be the worst reach in this kind of race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:26 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred)
PURCHASE

Los Alamitos (Thoroughbred) - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $2 Rolling Double / $1 Pick Three (Races 3-4-5) $1 Superfecta (.10 Min.) / $2 Pick Six Starts (Races 3-8)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $41,000 • Post: 2:00P
FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Trailer. KEEP IT COMING is the Dominant Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * KEEP IT COMING: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. TROTSKY: Hors e has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NAWILIWILI: A first time starter with a trainer that has a return on investment with first time starters of at least +50 (minimum 10 starts). Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
4	KEEP IT COMING	9/2	3/1
1	TROTSKY	4/1	7/2
2	NAWILIWILI	8/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	RED ON SUNDAY	5	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	86	62	59.6	53.8	47.3
4	KEEP IT COMING	4	9/2	Trailer	88	80	78.3	69.7	66.7
1	TROTSKY	1	4/1	Trailer	81	72	44.2	69.2	65.7
3	WHO IS PAVEL	3	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	71.1	10.4	4.4

Unknown Running Style: NAWILIWILI (8/1) [Jockey: Gonzalez Ricardo - Trainer: Moger Jr Ed], UNZIP ME LORD (7/2) [Jockey: Franco Geovanni - Trainer: Gaines Carla], BART SIP SOME (8/1) [Jockey: Cedillo Abel - Trainer: Baltas Richard].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:26 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pleasanton
PURCHASE

Pleasanton - Race 6	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / $1 Superfecta (10-cent min.) $2 Daily Double
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 96 • Purse: $26,000 • Post: 4:21P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. (NON-STARTERS FOR CLAIMING PRICE $16,000 OR LESS IN THE LAST THREE STARTS PREFERRED.)(CAL-BRED OR CAL-SIRED HORSES THAT HAVE WON AN OPEN FIRST CONDITION ALLOWANCE RACE IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA MUST CARRY AN ADDITIONAL 2 LBS. UNLESS ENTERED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE.).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. SMUGGLER'S RUN is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * SMUGGLER'S RUN: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse ranks in th e top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. IMPERIAL HORNET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. SAT ANTA: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DEBS TIZ: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has r un a Good Race within the last 30 days.
6	SMUGGLER'S RUN	6/1	7/2
1	IMPERIAL HORNET	7/2	7/1
3	SATANTA	9/2	7/1
5	DEBS TIZ	8/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	SMUGGLER'S RUN	6	6/1	Alternator/Front-runner	100	96	78.4	93.6	87.1
1	IMPERIAL HORNET	1	7/2	Stalker	94	97	83.8	93.2	87.2
4	BOB'S BLUE MOON	4	9/5	Stalker	88	89	82.4	84.7	74.2
5	DEBS TIZ	5	8/1	Stalker	89	92	79.6	87.7	83.2
2	HALO RANDO	2	7/2	Trailer	87	86	70.0	80.2	71.7
3	SATANTA	3	9/2	Trailer	97	97	62.0	95.2	90.2

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:27 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:46pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $50,700 Class Rating: 86

Rating:

#7 THREE SONNY SIDEUP (ML=6/1)
#1 SOUPER RUSH (ML=5/2)

THREE SONNY SIDEUP - Traditional handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a layoff generally leads to a big effort. Going to run a good one. He has the highest earnings per race. Check out this horse. SOUPER RUSH - This gelding runs very well off of a vacation. Last raced at Woodbine carrying 5 pounds more. The lower weight assigned in this race should serve him well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 HIGHLAND LIFE (ML=2/1), #3 ALWAYS A WAY (ML=7/2), #4 FOREST STAR (ML=8/1),

HIGHLAND LIFE - Don't think that this colt has value at 2/1 in today's event. ALWAYS A WAY - I'd like to see more conducive recent efforts with morning line odds of 7/2. FOREST STAR - This rallier will probably be rallying much too late to make a mark in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - THREE SONNY SIDEUP - This horse is meeting a much easier bunch than in the last race on June 8th. Worth a prime wager today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #7 THREE SONNY SIDEUP on the win end if we get at least 5/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:27 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 7.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 59

FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES AND WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $8,000 OR LESS. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 15 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 30 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACESINCE APRIL 30 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 SHEA D SECRET 3/1
# 5 LACROSSE 10/1
# 2 RAW HONEY 4/1

I think SHEA D SECRET is a solid choice. Has to be given consideration against this field displaying very good numbers recently and an average speed fig of 54 under similar conditions. Recent figures for the jock - 29 win percent - make this filly stand out in this group of horses. The speed figure of 51 from her latest race looks quite good in here. LACROSSE - Lately Diaz has provided wagerers with a decent winning percentage with horses racing in dirt sprint races. Diaz will most likely be able to get this filly to break out quickly in this competition. RAW HONEY - Texidor has a solid 22 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:27 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

PURCHASE

Energy Downs 307 Racing - Race #10 - Post: 5:15pm - Stakes - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,500 Class Rating: 72 Sue Wallis Memorial Derby

Rating:

#9 KICKIN' CHARLIE (ML=8/1)
#1 IMPULZIVE STORM (ML=9/2)

KICKIN' CHARLIE - Gelding shipped to this track and won; now goes for two in a row. The fact that this gelding is entered right back into a race so quickly means he's fit and ready. I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a horse coming back off a nice effort within the last month. IMPULZIVE STORM - This gelding is in top condition right now. Ended up first last out and comes back rapidly. Don't often see a favorable return on investment like +38. This jock/handler duo has done well together over the last twelve months. Trainer, Matt, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 THIRSTY MOE (ML=5/2), #3 SUNRISE MISCHIEF (ML=5/1), #7 COPPER SKY (ML=6/1),

THIRSTY MOE - Hasn't raced or had any drills since June 1st. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. Recorded a run-of-the-mill speed rating last time out in an Allowance race on Jun 1st. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig. SUNRISE MISCHIEF - I'm prognosticating a less than stellar go of it out of him today. COPPER SKY - This gelding hasn't had any strong victories in sprint contests in the last couple months. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Improbable to improve enough to run a figure close to today's class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Play #9 KICKIN' CHARLIE to win if you can get odds of 2/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-30-2024, 08:28 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Monmouth Park

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 5.5f on the Turf. Purse: $17500 Class Rating: 80

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $14,000 1 LB.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 LITTLE HOT MESS 8/1
# 7 IN THE END 3/1
# 8 SOPHISTICATED CAT 5/1

LITTLE HOT MESS has a respectable shot to take this outing and is a respectable value bet given the line. Must be considered given the class of races run recently. IN THE END - With a quite good 72 speed figure last time out, will clearly be a factor in this outing. Sweezey has a sound 21 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface. SOPHISTICATED CAT - Wilson and Marin have won 15 percent of their races giving this horse a decent chance.