3-28-09

[Mr. IWS]

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

Larry Ness

20* NCAA Tourney GOY

The Big East placed five teams in the Sweet 16 and all three in action on Thursday won (I'mwriting this prior to Friday's games being played). It's possible the BigEast could send four teams to the Final 4, one-upping its 1985 performancewhen three teams went. That 1985 season is of course very special toVillanova, as the Wildcats won their only national title that year,beating Georgetown in one of the NCAA tourney's greatest upsets. SeededNo. 3 in the East this year, Villanova owns extremely impressive wins the last two games, crushing UCLA 89-69 in the second round (Bruins were going for a fourth straight Final 4 appearance) and then beating Duke 77-54 inthe Sweet 16, handing the Blue Devils their worst tourney loss since their 1990 title game loss to UNLV (103-73). Pitt was one of six schools which
spent time at No. 1 this year but the Panthers have been far from dominant
in reaching the school's first-ever Elite 8. For you history buffs, the
Panthers did reach a Regional Final back in 1974, losing 100-72 to David
Thompson's NC State team (which one the national title that year), 11
years before the tourney expanded to 64 teams. Pitt opened TY's tourney
with a 10-point win over East Tenn St (as a three-TD favorite) and then
outlasted Okla St 84-76 in the second round. Thursday, the Panthers
trailed Xavier 37-29 at the half but held the Musketeers to 26 points (on
24.1 percent shooting) in the second half, winning 60-55. Both teams own
similar offensive and defensive numbers with the Wildcats owning more
depth on the perimeter but the Panthers owning more talent in the
frontcourt. Reynolds (15.2-2.9-3.4) and PG Redding (7.0-4.9-3.1) are
joined by swingman Anderson (8.8-6.0) in the starting lineup but it's
Villanova's pair of guards off the bench (Fisher at 10.8 PPG and Stokes at
9.6 PPG), who really make this team unique. The 6-8 Cunningham (16.3-7.4)
has had an excellent year but he may need more help vs the Panthers than
the 6-7 Clark (5.4-3. and the 6-8 Pena (5.4-4.3) are able to give him.
Fields (10.7-7.5 APG) and Dixon (8.5) are Pittsburgh's starting guards,
with Wanamaker (5.8-3.3) and freshman Gibbs (4.5) coming off the bench.
Pitt's 6-6 Young (18.9-6.2) and the 6-7 Blair (15.6-12.4) are special,
with the 6-8 Biggs (6.6-4.3) being the team's fifth starter. The team
other main contributor is 6-6 swingman Brown (5.3-3.2). Fields "saved the
day" late vs the Xavier (three-pointer and a breakaway layup) and after a
poor game vs East Tenn St, is back in form. Young's averaged 21.7 PPG in
Pitt's three tourney wins, while Blair has shot poorly the last two games
(8-of-23), after getting 27 points vs East Tenn St. However, Blair's
averaged 15.0 RPG in the three games. Cunningham (19.0-9.3) is playing as
well as Young but I think that both Young and Blair will be tough to stop
in this matchup. Redding has not been all that good so far, averaging 11.7
PPG in 'Nova's three tourney games, shooting 35.5 percent (including
4-of-15 on threes). These teams met just once this year, in Philadelphia
on Jan 28. The Wildcats won that game, outscoring the Panthers 41-26 in
the second half to overcome a 31-26 halftime deficit. Villanova played a
with a lot of emotion in that game, as it marked the final game played in
Philadelphia' famed Spectrum. The Spectrum opened in 1967 and was the home
for almost 30 years for the NBA's Sixers and NHL's Flyers. It hosted two
Final Fours (1976 and 1981, both won by Indiana) as well as what many
consider one of the best NCAA tournament games, the 1992 East Regional
final when Christian Laettner hit a turnaround from the top of the key at
the buzzer to give Duke a 104-103 victory over Kentucky. Villanova is
riding high off its wins over UCLA and Duke but I believe both of those
teams were overrated this year. The Wildcats had a great advantage playing
the Bruins in the Wachovia Center in Philadelphia, while the Blue Devils
shot an abysmal 26.7 percent from the floor, including 5-of-27 from
three-point range. Pitt's yet to play its "A-game" but I'm predicting
we'll see it here. In fact, I expect a 15-point win.

NCAA Tourney GOY 20* on Pittsburgh.

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

Lang

30 dimes on Nova

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

Dr Bob

No Best Bets for Saturday (unless Detroit goes down to -3).

Saturday NCAA Analysis
Pittsburgh (-2) versus Villanova
Villanova beat Pitt 67-57 in Philly earlier this season as Panthers’ star big man DeJuan Blair was limited to just 20 minutes due to foul trouble. Blair only averages 2.7 fouls per game, so I don’t see him getting in foul trouble again and having him on the floor more will certainly help Pitt in the rematch. Hitting some shots will also help the Panthers, who were a randomly bad 3 for 16 from 3-point range and only 59% from the free throw line in that game. My ratings favor Pitt by 2 ½ points with a total of 142 points and I have no opinion on this game.

Connecticut (-5 ½) over Missouri
Both of these teams have been very impressive during the tournament, but Connecticut has been the better team over the course of the season and Missouri’s run to the Final Four is likely over. The Tigers aren’t likely to get to the rim much against Connecticut’s shot blocking C Hasheem Thabeet and Mizzou is not a great 3-point shooting team (35.5%), so forcing turnovers for easy buckets would seem to be the answer. U Conn, however, takes care of the ball very well (just 12 turnovers per game). My first instinct was that the line on this game was a bit too high, but my ratings using only games against quality opposition favors the Huskies by 5 ½ points (with a total of 146 points), so the line is fair. U Conn applies to a negative 4-20 ATS round 4 situation while Missouri applies to a negative 27-82-2 ATS situation (that angle is 1-0 ATS when intersecting with the situation that applies to Connecticut), so I don’t really want either side here. I have no opinion on the side and I’ll lean with the under (150 ½ points).

Saturday NBA Opinion
Detroit (-4) over WASHINGTON
Washington is coming off a rare victory but the Wizards are just 2-9 ATS this season after a win when not getting more than 10 points (1-5 ATS at home) and they apply to a negative 45-107-3 ATS general letdown situation. Detroit has been on a slide lately without Rasheed Wallace and Richard Hamilton, but both return today (they are better without Allen Iverson and he is still likely out). Washington’s Caron Butler is also returning from injury today and the difference between him being in or out is 2 points and my ratings only favor Detroit by 3 points with Butler playing. I’ll lean with Detroit at -4, but I’d only take the Pistons in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

Root

Chairman - Uconn
Mill - Pitt

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

Big Al

At 7:05 pm, our Elite 8 Game of the Year is on the Pitt Panthers minus the points over Villanova. It's relatively rare for two conference teams to meet in the NCAA Tournament. Of course, everyone remembers the 1980s when three Big East teams made the Final Four, or when Danny Manning and Kansas upset Oklahoma for the title. But since 1991, it's only happened six other times, with the most recent being seven years ago when Missouri and Oklahoma faced off in the quarterfinals. The last time these two rivals met, it was in Philadelphia, and the Wildcats won by 10 points. Of course, that was one of the four games which Panther star DeJuan Blair fouled out, and three of Pittsburgh's four losses this year have come when its big man has fouled out. The flip side, of course, is that Pitt is 30-1 this year when Blair DOESN'T foul out. Certainly, if you're from the Steel City, you have to like those odds. And one also has to like that Pitt is only laying a couple of points in this game, compared to the other #1 seeds which are laying 5+ points in this round. The reason, of course, is that Pitt has not covered the spread yet in this tournament (compared to the other seven teams left, who all won and covered their previous game). But that's far from a negative in the NCAA Tournament. And, when one looks at teams off a pointspread loss in their previous game who are matched up against a foe not off a pointspread loss, provided our "cold" team also is not off a pointspread win in its two games prior to that as well, one finds that these "cold" teams do terrific when the pointspread is "reasonable" -- that is, when the line is not 5 or more points. Our "cold" teams in this situation are a solid 32-13 ATS in the NCAA Tourney since 1991, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if our team comes into the game with a win percentage greater than .875! That's one reason I like Pitt. Another is the simple fact that Villanova just doesn't have anyone who can match up inside with Blair. The Wildcats' only real hope is that Blair commits silly fouls, and has to sit on the bench. But although a possibility, it's not something a team really wants to hang its hat on. The Wildcats also had a benefit of playing the first two tourney games in its home city of Philadelphia (the only team this year with such an advantage). But teams who win rounds 1 and 2 while playing at home generally don't make it to the Final Four once they have to step onto a neutral court, and such teams are 20% ATS in the Elite 8 Round. Take Pittsburgh.

[Guest]

Re: 3-28-09

PPP
4% Pitt under
3% Pitt