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Re: 3-29-09
Charlie Sports
500* Sacramento +6
500* Louisville over 137.5
Charlie Sports
500* Sacramento +6
500* Louisville over 137.5
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Re: 3-29-09
SCOTT RICKENBACH
1* (regular play) Michigan State Spartans (+) vs Louisville
The Cardinals, as you would expect, are getting a lot of hype right now because of how they thrashed Arizona on Friday. Additionally, the Spartans are not getting nearly the same respect because they have “only” squeaked out wins against Kansas and Southern Cal in their last two games plus they failed to cover against Robert Morris in their Big Dance opener. What does this mean for our purposes? A lot of line value is being given to a Spartans team that has gone 13-2 in it’s last 15 opportunities on the second day of an NCAA Tourney weekend. Coach Tom Izzo has built this team well for success in these tough, back to back spot. Their half-court offense, a deep rotation, and a strong rebounding unit all combine to make the Spartans dangerous in a spot like this. Playing in the Big Ten, Michigan State certainly knows plenty about physical play and their style is conducive to being able to slow down Louisville. The Cardinals have been harassed into some poor games offensively where their shots don’t fall. We believe Tom Izzo’s crew is capable of that type of defensive effort here.
One of the keys for the Spartans is how well they rebound and the fact that this should eliminate a lot of second chance opportunities for Louisville. Also, Michigan State does an amazing job on the offensive glass! Believe it or not, the Spartans rebound over 40% of their own shots and their rebounding margin (nearly a +10) is the best in the nation. The Cardinals are a very strong team and they do have depth but will they start to wear themselves out here. Their recent eliminations from the tournament have often come on the second day of a tourney weekend. Here, with Izzo and his Spartans capable of forcing a half-court game, we could see the Cardinals offense bogging down. Their explosion against Arizona was a game that just got blown wide open and ‘ran wild’ all the way. Now, forced to play in half-court sets – where Louisville struggles – the Spartans should successfully get the tempo they want here. The Cardinals have enjoyed a favorable draw so far with Morehead State, Siena, and 12th-seeded Arizona team. All of the sudden, the Cardinals now face a battle-tested Spartans team that has survived back to back tight games against top competition (USC and Kansas). This will make a big difference in how this one plays out as the Spartans keep this tight all the way and the Cardinals struggle to respond as they are suddenly faced with a tight game. This means big value with the big points here. Play Michigan State plus the points as a regular selection.Comment
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Re: 3-29-09
Lee Sterling
San Antonio at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +1.5
This is Lee Sterling and I've been in the top three for winning percentage for a long time now. If you want winning picks then I'm your guy. In NBA today I'm clearly behind New Orleans because they are getting healthier and they need this game in the worst way for their confidence. Most teams get beaten by San Antonio because they have no PG to guard Parker but New Orleans does and can get a lot of easy baskets in transition versus a tired and slow San Antonio squad. New Orleans big on Sunday night.Comment
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Re: 3-29-09
Matt FAG RO
Chicago at Toronto
Play: Toronto -2
Chicago looks to be coming together at the right time as it has won five straight games but now it heads out on the road once again where things have not been very good. The Bulls are just 12-26 away from home this season and since February 20th, the home team is 17-3 in Chicago games. The Bulls are now tied with Detroit for 7th place in the Eastern Conference so the recent run have been a good one but this is definitely the time to fade. They have been very solid in games played with no rest as they are 13-8 both straight up and against the number in the second game of a back-to-back set. However, that includes a 9-2 record when going from a road game to a home game and they are only 1-4 when that first game was at home. That again brings in the home/road dichotomy that Chicago has been facing all season long. Toronto’s playoff hopes were dashed a long time ago but this team certainly has not tossed in the towel. The Raptors have won three straight games, the first time they have accomplished that since January and the offense has put together solid efforts in all of those, averaging 109 ppg. Expectations were high for Toronto this season and that is the main cause for its dismal record against the number as it is a putrid 27-42-3 ATS on the season. However, most of that lack of success came against the better teams as the Raptors are 13-26-3 ATS as underdogs but a more respectable 14-14 ATS as favorites. Toronto is actually 7-1 ATS in its last eight games as a favorite which shows that the betting market was slow to adjust when they were losing as favorites earlier in the year and they are once again slow to adjust this time around. The road team has won the first two meetings this season but that changes here as the Raptors remain hot and snap the Bulls string at five. 3* Toronto RaptorsComment
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Re: 3-29-09
John Ryan
Money Line: -113 Philadelphia Flyers
Ai Simulator 7* graded play on the Flyers as they host the Bruins set to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 30-8 making 18.4 units since 2003. Play against road dogs of +100 to +150 against the money line revenging a same season loss versus opponent and is well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days. Boston is a weak 80-109 against the money line (-54.3 Units) against poor defensive teams opponents average 29.5+ shots on goal in the 2nd half of the year since 1996. Philadelphia is a solid 16-8 against the money line (+9.3 Units) after allowing 3 goals or more 2 straight games this season. Take the Flyers.Comment
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