4-3-09

[Mr. IWS]

Stephen Nover

NBA

San Antonio (-3.5 -110)

Idle since a shocking Tuesday home loss to the Thunder, expect to see the Spurs motivated and playing well against this weak Eastern Conference foe.

San Antonio is in danger of squandering home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Indiana isn't realistically in the playoff mix, trailing Chicago by 3 1/2 games. The Pacers have failed to cover in four of their last six games at Conseco Fieldhouse.

The key for the Spurs is Manu Ginobili. He's been looking better since returning a week ago. I don't see the Spurs losing twice in a row to bad teams.

Gregg Popovich may be the best coach with extra time to prepare. The Spurs realize the importance of this road matchup. They hold a strong talent and defensive edge.

----

Sacramento at Phoenix Under (243.5 -110)

This is one of the biggest totals of the season.

The oddsmaker has to set a larger than life total considering how potent the Suns are on offense, how weak the two defenses are and that the Kings lost 143-141 to the Warriors on Wednesday.

Still, this total is too high.

The Suns actually had their finest defense spell of the season in their last game holding the Rockets scoreless for 5:34 during the fourth quarter. They should be motivated to play some defense against the Kings after being upset by them Sunday, 126-118.

Sure, there are going to be a lot of points scored in this matchup. Just not this many. It would take four strong quarters to reach this high of a total. One bad quarter by one of the teams will throw off the 'over.'

----

Sacramento (+13 -110)

Even though this is a revenge spot for Phoenix and a must-win game for the Suns, the spread is too high considering the Suns' lack of defense, the situation and how well Sacramento has been playing lately.

In the Kings' last three games, they upset the Suns at home, lost to the Hornets by one point at home on a 3-point shot at the buzzer and lost by two in overtime to Golden State on the road.

A key for the Kings has been the return to health by underrated Francisco Garcia. He's looked excellent the past five games after missing substanial time with a calf injury.

The Kings are giving up 109 points per game, the Suns are surrendering 107 points. The Kings often are underpriced, especially when playing in division where they have covered 10 of the past 12 times.

Sacramento is a loose team with no pressure. The Suns are off a huge win against the Rockets. They play at Dallas on Sunday in a huge look-ahead game. If the Suns lose that game their long shot playoff hopes are dead.

----

Minnesota (+13 -110)

Utah is 3-15 straight-up when playing the second of back-to-back games. The Jazz also are 0-5 against the spread in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

Minnesota is 16-7-1 against the spread in its last 24 road games.

Jazz coach Jerry Sloan will be attending his brother's funeral and not at the game. The Jazz played at Denver last night and their next three games are on the road against the Hornets, Mavericks and Spurs.

So don't look for the Jazz to go all out in this matchup.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Maddux Sports

Basketball
#504 - NBA - 3 units on Indiana +4
#520 - NBA - 3 units on LA Lakers -5.5
#521 - NBA - 3 units on Oregon State +9

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

erin rynning
20* under orlando

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Doc s***** NBA's pick
4-Unit Play #503 Take San Antonio/Indiana UNDER 200 ½ (7 p.m. EST, Friday)

San Antonio is the No. 3 scoring defense in the league and only the No. 24 scoring offense. We feel they will try and make the Pacers play their game tonight. In the one meeting this season the Spurs did just that, holding the Pacers to just 81 points and 37% shooting from the field. The Pacers have had a bit of an upswing in scoring lately but they have faced teams like Chicago and Washington that play no defense. However, all of their recent games against decent defensive clubs have resulted in low scoring totals. The oddsmakers have been overadjusting the totals for the Pacers lately and the result has been great for under bettors. The under is 8-2 in their last 10 overall and 11-1 in their last 12 home games. The Spurs have been very consistent recently defensively and have allowed under 90 PPG in their last 10 games.



2-Unit Play #509 Take Portland -5 Over Oklahoma City (8 p.m. EST, Friday)

The Thunder have been one of the best bets in the NBA this season and we have made a lot of profit off them but this team has been in a slump lately and tonight they face a Portland team that has been extremely hot, cashing in seven of their last eight games. This team has played well lately both on the road and at home. OKC has cashed just twice in their last seven games and they have failed to cover in three-straight home games. The Blazers have been playing great on both sides of the ball and their recent numbers really don’t justify this low of a spread. We had this game capped at 7 ½ so we think there is some nice value tonight.



3-Unit Play #519 Take Houston/LA Lakers UNDER 196 (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

The Lakers have been playing great defense lately and have held their last six opponents to an average of under 90 PPG. This team came on last year at this time of the season and they are gearing up for the playoffs, where playing strong defense is the key to winning a championship. The Lakers and the Lakers OVER are two of the most public plays on the board whenever they lace up the sneakers. The oddsmakers obviously have no need to adjust these numbers, even though 14 of the last 17 for LA have gone under the posted total – the public still likes to think of what this team has done all season instead of what they are doing now. The Rockets, of course, are a Top 7 defensive club and they have also allowed less than 90 PPG, on average, in their last six games. The under is 7-1 in the Rockets last eight road games.



8-Unit NBA Totals Game of the Year – #517 Take New Orleans/Golden State UNDER 218 (10:30 p.m. EST, Friday)

Loving this line tonight and this is a game we had circled on our calendar for a week. We felt they would put a line this high here and we think this one is close to 10 points over what it should be. New Orleans is really playing solid defense lately. Besides a wacky game against Sacramento when they seemingly took a night off from defense, this team has allowed only two teams to score more than 100 in 18 games and the highest point total for an opponent during that time was 103 points. And the Hornets have played some pretty solid offensive clubs during that span, including these same Warriors. In that last game the Hornets pretty much dominated the Warriors defensively the whole game. They managed only 89 points in that game, and that included a 31-point fourth quarter. The total in that game reached only 188. So what do the oddsmakers do? Give us a line higher than the number for that game! The Warriors have had some high scoring games lately but they haven’t really been playing any defensive teams. We feel like New Orleans will try to make them play their game again and that this one will get over 200 but well under the posted number. The Warriors also have some injuries tonight to deal with and we just don’t see this game as a track meet. The New Orleans under has been one of the best bets in the NBA lately as it has cashed in nine of the last 11 and in eight of the last 10 games as a favorite. The highest point total in the last four meetings between these clubs was 211 and the other three got nowhere close to this number.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

erin rynning

20* under orlando

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Tim Trushel

4/3/09
NBA
Featured Play: Oklahoma City +5 (510)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Fairway Jay

Cleveland Cavaliers / Orlando Magic UNDER 188.0 / 4 units

Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5 (-110) / 4 units

Minnesota Timberwolves /Utah Jazz UNDER 202.5 / 5 units

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

NBA:

2* Timberwolves +13.5
4* Lakers -5
6* Suns/Kings over 244
6* Hornets/Warriors over 217

NCAA:

1* UTEP/Oregon State over 134

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Dwayne Bryant | NBA Sides
free pick519 HOU 5.5 (-110) vs 520 LAL
Analysis:
Not an ideal situation for the Lakers. LA is coming home off a long seven-game road trip and they have the look of a tired team. They also have home court advantage wrapped up throughout the playoffs, so motivation is a huge question mark for LA.



Houston has motivation in a couple different ways. First, they're vying for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Houston currently sits in fourth place in the West, which would give them home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. But the second through seventh seeds are separated by just a few games, so Houston could quickly find themselves on the road in Round 1.



This is also a triple same-season revenge game for Houston, as LA has won and covered all three meetings. The last two were Lakers wins in Houston, which cannot sit well with the Rockets. It's been seven years since LA swept the season series from Houston. With Houston coming off a tough road loss at Phoenix on national TV, I expect the Rockets to be ready to put on a better performance on ESPN tonight.



This figures to be a close battle and the situation favors the Rockets, so I'll grab the points with Houston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

The Real Animal

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Pick title: 2* Oregon State +9
Pick Date: 04/03/2009
Pick description:
8-1 since Tuesday! Four premium plays tonight all backed by complete analysis

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

VERNON CROY SOLID TOP COMP PLAY

20 Units, Take San Antonio Under, The Spurs are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA with opponents averaging just 93 ppg against them and the Spurs are only averaging 96.8 ppg overall this season. The last time these two teams met the posted total was 208.5 and the final total score was just 180 and I look for a similar result tonight. Both of these teams shot over 40% from beyond the arc in their last meeting and yet this game still went under the posted total by 28 points. The O/U is 2-8 for the Spurs in their last 10 games against a Central Division opponent and 0-4 for the Spurs in their last 4 games when favored on the road. The O/U is 1-11 for the Pacers in their last 12 home games and 1-6 in the Pacers last 7 games against a team with a winning record over .600. The O/U is 10-21 in the Spurs last 31 games as a road favorite of -0.5 to -4.5 points and the O/U is 0-7 for the Pacers in their last 7 home games as a dog. Take the Under as my Friday Night NBA Premium Free Play since this is my only play released for Friday.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS....
10 DIMER - HOUSTON ROCKETS




20 DIMER - PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

The young Thunder appear to be about out of petrol as we head into the last few days of the regular season.
Oklahoma City has dropped 7 of their last 10 both straight up, and against the spread, and another SU and ATS loss is in the cards tonight against visiting Portland.
The Blazers are looking to improve their seeding, and Portland is going the other way on the wins/losses scale, as the Trail Blazers have won and covered their last 3, and have won 7 of their last 10 overall, while covering in 8 of those 10.
Portland won the last series meeting, 106-92 back in February, and I like the final to look similar tonight.
LAY IT!




10 DIMER - HOUSTON ROCKETS

Tricky spot for LA, as the Lakers are firmly locked into #1 in the West, but are 3 games behind Cleveland for the overall best record in the league, with time running out.
After 7 straight on the road, failing their last 3 against the spread, I would tend to think the Lakers will be a little flat in this first game back in the City of Angels.
Houston is in off a loss, and really need to step things up to improve their standing in the playoff picture.
The Rockets have covered 6 of their last 8 on the road, and I like them to cover in this one.
Take the points, as the Rockets give the Lakers a tussle

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

DOC

4 Unit Play. Take Minnesota -115 over Calgary

The Wild playoff hopes are bleak sitting four points back with five games to play so it goes without saying every game is important and the same goes with the Flames tied with Vancouver for the third seed. Calgary comes into Minnesota after a hard fought 2-1 win in Dallas last night and in the process lost top defense man Robin Regehr. The Flames have been riddled with injuries but losing Regehr would hurt meaning he would be the sixth defense man out of the lineup and with the lack of depth tough for a team playing their third game in four nights. This series this year has been one sided towards the flames winning all five, but four of those five games have been decided by one goal and two of them in overtime. I think with the disadvantages listed above the Wild get this one tonight.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

CHARLIE

nba. miami @ charlotte under 184 (500*).
nba. new orleans-3 (30*)
nba. cleveland @ orlando under 188 (20*)
cbb. oregon st+8' (20*)
nba. spurs-3' (10*)
nba. houston+5' (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-3-09

Adam Meyer



San Antonio Spurs (-3.5 Points) vs. Indiana Pacers

While the Spurs are in a recent funk and the Pacers are playing well now-it’s important to look at the big picture: San Antonio has handled the Pacers over the years and ,after fumbling away the last few seconds of a one-point loss to the Thunder, dropped a spot in the Western Conference race. They face Cleveland on Sunday, so this game in Indiana is a “must win” for them. After all the Cavaliers are a much tougher road opponent than the Pacers.

Play: San Antonio Spurs (-3.5 Points)



Adam Meyer

New Orleans Hornets (-3 Points) vs. Golden State

The Hornets can clinch a second consecutive playoff spot with a win tonight. Golden State continues to be a horrible defensive team, giving up 113.1 PPG at home-the worst in the NBA. New Orleans needs this win badly and should be able to handle a bad Warriors team even without the services of Tyson Chandler tonight.

Play: New Orleans Hornets (-3 Points)