Tweet
Re: 4-6-09
Dr. Canada
Game 1 - Red Wings/Sabres over 6
Game 2 - Senators/Canadiens over 6
Dr. Canada
Game 1 - Red Wings/Sabres over 6
Game 2 - Senators/Canadiens over 6
-
Re: 4-6-09
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
(2) Michigan State (31-6, 21-12-1 ATS) vs. (1) North Carolina (32-4, 16-19 ATS)
Michigan State pulled the upset against top-seeded Connecticut in the Final Four on Saturday, building an 11-point second half lead then holding off a late Huskies surge to claim an 82-73 victory as a 4½-point underdog at Ford Field. The Spartans have been scorching hot lately, going 11-1 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 starts, including 5-0 SU and ATS in the Big Dance. Also, they’ve now eliminated consecutive No. 1 seeds, following the upset of Louisville in the Elite Eight with Saturday’s stunner over UConn.
North Carolina was in full control against third-seeded Villanova on Saturday, racing out to a 17-point first-half edge. The Tar Heels let the Wildcats get back within five early in the second half before another surge pushed the lead back to 10, and they led by double digits the rest of the way in an 83-69 rout as a seven-point chalk. Carolina is on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll in this year’s Tournament, winning by double digits in every game.
This is a rematch of a game played back on Dec. 6, also at Ford Field, as the Tar Heels pummeled Michigan State 98-63 as a 10-point favorite. North Carolina outshot the Spartans 48 percent to 34.8 percent and forced 21 Michigan State turnovers. However, the Spartans were without big man Goran Suton (10 points, 7.8 rebounds per game average), who sat out with an injury.
These teams have met six times since 1998, with North Carolina going 4-2 SU and ATS, and the winner has cashed in all six meetings. In addition to their 35-point win at Ford Field in December, the Tar Heels’ other three victories over the past 11 years against Michigan State have come in the NCAA Tournament, all of them double-digit routs. That includes an 87-71 win as a 4½-point chalk in the 2005 Final Four.
Michigan State has averaged 72.8 ppg and allowed 63.6 ppg so far in the Tournament, and North Carolina has beaten its opponents by a whopping average of nearly 21 ppg, netting 87.6 ppg while yielding just 66.8. Both teams are going after their second titles of the decade, with Michigan State winning it all in 2000 and Carolina taking the crown in 2005.
Michigan State is 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS on neutral floors this season, outscoring opponents by a couple buckets per game in averaging 71.9 points and allowing 67.2. North Carolina, meanwhile, is 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in eight neutral-court starts, piling up 87.4 ppg and giving up 71.0 ppg.
Guard Kalin Lucas leads a balanced Michigan State scoring attack at 14.7 ppg, and he fueled the Spartans with 21 points and five assists in the win over UConn. Forward Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg) nearly got a double-double against the Huskies, with 18 points and nine rebounds, and he also had five steals.
All-American forward Tyler Hansbrough paces Carolina at 20.8 ppg and 8.2 rpg, and four more Tar Heels are averaging double digits, including star guard Ty Lawson (16.5 ppg), who also chips in 6.5 assists per game. Hansbrough had a double-double of 18 points and 11 boards against Villanova, and Lawson had game-highs of 22 points and eight assists.
The Spartans are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-0 in non-conference contests, 6-1 after a SU win, 5-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a neutral-site pup and a sterling 22-8-1 in their last 31 NCAA Tournament tilts. The only negative for Michigan State: a 1-4 ATS mark in its last five starts against the ACC, including this year’s blowout loss to Carolina.
The Tar Heels entered the Big Dance on a 2-9 ATS freefall (9-2 SU), but their trends are nothing but positive now, as they are on ATS upswings of 39-15 outside the ACC, 8-0 as a Tourney chalk of seven to 12½ points and 4-0 against the Big Ten. Plus, in the NCAAs, Carolina is on a 9-1 SU and ATS spree, with all nine wins coming by double digits from the favorite’s role. The lone loss was last year’s 84-66 Final Four setback to eventual champion Kansas as a 2½-point chalk.
The under for Michigan State is on tears of 11-5 overall, 9-4 after a SU win, 8-3 after an ATS victory, 39-19-1 with the Spartans getting points, 10-5 with the Spartans as a neutral-court ‘dog and 5-2 against the ACC. Likewise, the under for North Carolina is on tears of 5-1 overall (all at neutral sites and all with the Tar Heels favored), 5-1 in the Tournament and 6-1 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. Finally, the December meeting between these two fell a couple baskets short of the hefty 166½-point posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NORTH CAROLINA and UNDER
NATIONAL LEAGUE
L.A. Dodgers (0-0) at San Diego (0-0)
The reigning N.L. West champion Dodgers open the season on the road at Petco Park against the Padres, who finished with the majors’ third-worst record last season. Los Angeles will hand the ball to right-hander Hiroki Kuroda (9-10, 3.73 ERA in 2008) against San Diego ace Jake Peavy (10-11, 2.85).
Los Angeles finished the regular season by winning 10 of its last 15 games to edge Arizona by two games for the division crown. The Dodgers then stunned the Central Division champion Cubs with a three-game playoff sweep before falling to the eventual World Series champion Phillies, losing the best-of-7 National League Championship Series 4-1.
San Diego went 7-11 in its last 18 starts of 2008, fairly indicative of the entire season, as the Padres finished 11 games under .500 at Petco Park (35-46) and far worse on the road (28-53). San Diego’s offense mustered just 637 runs all season, for an average of 3.93 per game, while giving up 764 runs for an average of nearly a run higher at 4.72 per game.
Los Angeles went 11-7 against San Diego last year, including 5-4 at Petco Park, and the Dodgers won four of the last five clashes.
Kuroda had an average rookie season, but he was sterling in his two playoff starts, going 2-0 with a 1.46 ERA in 12 1/3 innings. In the series-clinching Game 3 victory over the Cubs, he threw 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball, scattering six hits with two walks in a 3-1 victory. Then in Game 3 against the Phillies, he led the Dodgers to their lone NLCS win, allowing two runs on five hits and a walk in six innings in a 7-2 rout. Los Angeles went 6-1 in Kuroda’s last seven starts, with the right-hander going 4-0 with two no-decisions.
Peavy was solid on the mound last year but just couldn’t get much offensive support. He went 5-5 in his last 10 starts, but the Pads scored three runs or less in seven of those games, including shutout losses of 2-0 to San Francisco and 1-0 to Milwaukee. On the bright side, Peavy beat the Dodgers in his last regular-season start, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks in five innings of a 7-5 road victory.
Kuroda went 3-8 with a 3.78 ERA in 17 road outings last year and 2-1 with a 5.66 ERA in four starts against the Padres. Peavy was 5-5 despite a remarkable 1.74 ERA in 14 starts at Petco in 2008, and he’s owned the Dodgers in his career with a 13-1 record and a 2.32 ERA in 22 starts.
The Dodgers are 16-7 in their last 23 division contests, but they won just one of their last five games during the playoffs, and with Kuroda taking the ball, they are on skids of 2-5 on the road and 1-7 with the 34-year-old as a road underdog. The Padres went just 1-5 in their last six home games last year, but with Peavy pitching, they are on a 16-5 run against the Dodgers, including 8-0 in his last eight outings against L.A. at home, and they’re 11-5 in the right-hander’s last 16 Monday starts..
The over for Los Angeles is on streaks of 4-1 against right-handers, 4-1-1 in series openers, 5-0 with Kuroda starting a series opener and 5-2-1 in Kuroda’s last eight starts overall, but the under is 11-4-1 in Kuroda’s last 16 road starts. The over for San Diego is on rolls of 12-5 overall, 6-2 at home and 5-0 in series openers, but with Peavy starting, the under is on stretches of 10-3-1 overall and 38-18-4 at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Chicago Cubs (0-0) at Houston (0-0)
The Cubs begin their quest to end a 101-year World Series championship drought when they travel to Houston for an N.L. Central battle with the Astros. Chicago’s Carlos Zambrano (14-6, 3.91 ERA in 2008) is scheduled to oppose Roy Oswalt (17-10, 3.54) in a clash of bona fide aces.
Chicago went 89-74 in 2008, won its second consecutive N.L. Central title and was a heavy favorite to reach its first World Series since 1945. However, the Cubs wilted under the postseason pressure, getting swept by the Dodgers in the N.L. Division Series, losing the three games by a combined score of 20-6. The Cubs were a dismal road team last year, going 35-46.
Houston (86-75 last year) struggled out of the gate in 2008, but finished on a 39-19 roll, including winning 21 of its last 28 at Minute Maid Park to finish 47-33 at home. Additionally, the Astros enter 2009 on runs of 16-5 as a favorite, 13-3 as a home chalk and 15-7 against right-handed starters.
The Astros won the season series against the Cubs by a slim 9-8 margin, but the visitor won the last five meetings, including Chicago’s two-game sweep of a series moved to Milwaukee when Hurricane Ike hit Houston in early September.
Zambrano got rocked in his one playoff start last year, giving up seven runs (three earned) in 6 1/3 innings of a 10-3 Game 1 loss to the Dodgers. After tossing a no-hitter against the Astros in Milwaukee on Sept. 14, Zambrano went 0-2 with an 11.37 ERA, allowing 20 runs (16 earned) in 12 2/3 innings. The right-hander went 7-4 with a 4.07 ERA in 14 regular-season road starts last year.
Oswalt was sensational down the stretch last year, tossing 11 consecutive quality starts (three earned runs allowed or less and at least six innings pitched) to end the season. He went 8-2 with a 1.44 ERA in those 13 games, with Houston also winning his one no-decision. At home last year, the veteran right-hander was 10-3 with a 3.73 ERA in 16 starts.
Zambrano is 12-7 with a 2.70 ERA in 26 career appearances (24 starts) against the Astros, including the 5-0 no-hit victory last September. He’s also 6-3 with a 3.58 ERA at Minute Maid Park. Meanwhile, Oswalt is 12-11 with a 3.88 ERA in 26 games (25 starts) against Chicago, including 2-1 with a 1.23 ERA in his last three outings against the Cubs at home.
With Zambrano on the hill, Chicago is on streaks of 19-9 overall, 37-15 on the road, 16-5 as an underdog, 11-2 as a road pup and 15-7 against the Astros. Houston is 55-18 in Oswalt’s last 73 home starts (8-0 in the last eight last year), 6-1 in his last seven outings overall and 85-40 in his last 125 as a favorite.
The under is 36-15-1 in the last 51 meetings between these squads, 23-6 in the last 29 clashes in Houston, 16-5 in Zambrano’s last 21 starts against the Astros and 9-1 in his last 10 outings in Houston. Additionally, the under is on runs for the Astros of 7-2 at home, 7-2 in divisional games, 16-7 against right-handed starters and 8-1 overall with Oswalt on the mound.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Oakland (0-0) at L.A. Angels (0-0)
The Angels, who finished with the best record in baseball last year but bowed out in the first round of the playoffs, open the 2009 campaign with a four-game series against the division rival Athletics at Angel Stadium. Los Angeles will send left-hander Joe Saunders (17-7, 2.03 ERA in 2008) up against fellow lefty Dallas Braden (5-4, 4.14).
After posting a solid 100-62 regular-season record, Los Angeles got bounced by Boston in four games in the best-of-5 divisional round, dropping the first two games at home. The Angels won Game 3 on the road, but the Red Sox finished it off with a 3-2 win at Fenway in Game 4. The Angels ended the year on a 4-6 skid, but they were remarkably consistent in finishing with an identical 51-30 mark at home and on the road. The team’s lofty record was mainly the result winning close games, outscoring opponents by an average of less than half a run per game (4.7-4.3).
Oakland finished third in the A.L. West last year with a sub-par 75-86 record, 24½ games behind the Angels. The A’s dropped their last five games, all on the road. For the season, Oakland went 43-38 at home but just 32-48 on the highway. However, the A’s added slugger Matt Holliday and brought back Jason Giambi in the offseason, hoping to bolster an offense that averaged only four runs per game last year.
These rivals played a competitive season series in 2008, with L.A. going 10-9 overall and 5-5 at home.
Saunders was the lone bright spot in the playoffs for the Angels, helping the Halos to the Game 3 win in the first round against Boston. He allowed all four runs on five hits and four walks in 4 2/3 innings of a 5-4 victory. Including the playoffs, Los Angeles went 6-0 in Saunders’ last six starts, with the youngster posting a 2.82 ERA.
The Athletics won five of Braden’s last seven starts last season, with the 25-year-old going 3-2 with two no-decisions and a 3.46 ERA. Braden went at least 5 2/3 innings in five of those starts, with three seven-inning stints, including a 2-1 road victory over the Angels in which he allowed seven hits (one for a solo homer) with no walks.
Braden appeared in 11 road games last year (six starts), finishing 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA, and he ‘s 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA in six appearances (two starts) versus Los Angeles. Saunders was 7-4 with a 4.27 ERA in 16 home starts last year, and he’s 5-2 with a 4.44 ERA in nine career outings against Oakland.
The Angels are on runs of 35-17 in division play and 17-8 against lefties, and with Saunders on the hill, they are on additional streaks of 38-15 overall, 25-10 at home, 8-2 against A.L. West foes and 17-4 in series openers. Along with their aforementioned 0-5 skid to end last season (all in division play), the A’s are in ruts of 12-30 on the road, 0-4 against southpaws and 8-17 on the road against left-handers.
The under for Los Angeles is on rolls of 35-16-3 against left-handed starters, 35-17-4 at home against lefties and 4-1-1 in Saunders’ last six starts, and the under for Oakland is on runs of 38-18-1 in series openers, 4-1 overall for Braden, 4-1 in Braden’s last five road outings and 8-2 behind Braden on grass. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is 31-13 in the last 44 clashes at Angel Stadium.
ATS ADVANTAGE: L.A. ANGELS and UNDERComment
-
Re: 4-6-09
THE PREZZ
The ****
Cleveland Indians/Texas Rangers OVER 9.5 (-115) / 3 units
The ****
Washington Nationals (145) / 4 units
The ****
Washington Nationals/Florida Marlins UNDER 8.0 (-110) / 3 units
The ****
Pittsburgh Pirates (170) / 3 units
The ****/
Oakland Athletics/Los Angeles Angels UNDER 8.5 (-110) / 3 unitsComment
-
Re: 4-6-09
Beat Your Bookie
Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Monday
NBA Basketball
100* Play North Carolina (-7.5) over Michigan State (NCAA)
North Carolina is 5-0 SU & ATS in all NCAA Tournament Games this season
North Carolina is 19-0 SU in non-conference games this season
North Carolina is 11-0 SU when the total posted is between 150 and
159.5
North Carolina is 14-1 SU coming off an UNDER the total
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Hoops & Hockey Plays
30* Play Montreal (-175) over Ottawa (NHLComment
-
Re: 4-6-09
indiancowboy
4 Unit Play. Under 7.5 Runs. Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Bluejays (Monday @ 7:15pm).
8-4 (66%) Overall Last Week.
9-2 Last 11 NBA Plays (+30.2 Units).
Verlander started off the year 1-7 last year and he is one of the reasosn why the Tigers never reached their potential. Well, he is on a big bounce-back here. Remember, the Tiger was capable of big things in the year before and he has really worked hard to make the necessary changes. He gave up just 1 run during a 19 inning spring training stretch this year so it looks to be working. In 15 opening day games, Halladay is a solid 11-2 with a 1.93 ERA but note he did not faced the Tigers last year and it has been quite some time since this Tigers lineup has faced him. Last year, Halladay was 10-4 witha 2.78 ERA in Toronto. In short, you have a pitcher on a bounce-back and a pitcher that does traditionally well on opening day (and the Tigers haven't seen Halladay's stuff in quite some time). The Under is 4-1 in Verlander's last 5 road starts dating back to last year, but more importanly, with the changes in his stance that he has made and with Halladay at 6-2 to the Under as a short lay of -110 to -150, limited runs seems like a good possibility here. Let's get this long, long season off to a good start this week.
2 Unit Play. Take Under 72 for First Half Between Michigan State vs. North Carolina (Monday @ 9:15pm est). If you'd like my full thoughts on this game, check out my page. We cashed on the Super Bowl, the NIT Championship, the CBI Championship, so hopefully we can cash on the National Championship. I always look for comparisons when teams play. An example of what UNC faced similar to Michigan State is Oklahoma earlier this year when UNC won 70-62 although it was really a much bigger blow out than that. Oklahoam started off shooting extremely poor that game and then started picking it up. If this is a high paced game, the chances are limited that Michigan State has any chance of winning this game. After all, the last time these two teams played, UNC dropped nearly a 100 points on this team. Both teams are 5-0 ATS during the tournament and it is tough for me to bet against a UNC team that has looked dynamic thus far in every element and the Seniors on this squad who stayed an extra year just for this very reason, and this very game. In that same token, Michigan State is basically at home. They are the Underdog but have a great crowd behind them. Thus, what I've decided to do is to roll with the Under in the First Half. This allows us to take advantage of the intensity in the first half for Michigan State, as Izzo will likely have a different defensive plan than what he showed this team the first time around when these two teams met. The first half of the Oklahoma game totaled 55 (2nd half totaled 77). I expect UNC to be a bit off rhythm after the first half and then they will make the necessary adjustments and come back in the second half. I expect Michigan State to look to drag this game out if possible in their offensive set. The way that Michigan State wins this game is if it's a drag down, physical contest. Remember, while Michigan State has gone through the likes of Louisville and UConn (beat two #1 squads, UNC has not beat any #1 squads as the the highest seed they faced was Oklahoma who they defeated by 12 and the game went well Under. I'm not certain about the Side but I do like the Under first half as it is significant from my numbers. Let's take advantage of that Detroit crowd in the early going, Izzo's defensive adjustments that he makes from the first game, Michigan State wanting to slow this game down a bit like they did to Louisville and look to cash the First Half Under here as we hopefully close out the year with 4 of 6 Winners.
Good luck,
Indian Cowboy.Comment
-
Re: 4-6-09
ROBERT FERrRINGO
3-Unit Play. Take #926 Los Angeles Angels (-135) over Oakland (9 p.m.)
I know that the Angels’ rotation has taken some hits. But that’s the type of thing that’s going to wear on them a bit over the long haul. As for Opening Day, I’m a Joe Saunders fan. The kid is 7-0 in his career in April with a 2.04 ERA. Solid. He’s also been very good against the A’s in his career, going 5-2 with a 3.33 ERA against them. And that highlights what has been an issue for the A’s for several years now – they aren’t very good against left-handed pitching. Matt Holiday will surely help that, and Orlando Cabrera isn’t too shabby. But that’s not enough to offset the fact that they finished last year just 8-17 against lefties. Also, the Halos are 38-15 in Saunders’ last 53 starts and 25-10 in his last 35 home starts.
The Angels, on the other hand, chew up lefties. And Dallas Braden isn’t even a good lefty. The Halos are 17-8 against left-handed starters and have been one of the best teams against lefties over the last three years. Braden wasn’t that impressive this spring and I don’t think he’s up to the task here. I think that the Angels want to make a statement in this game. I’m not big on a carryover from Spring Training, but the Angels were absolutely outstanding this Spring. Atlanta was very good this spring as well, which is partially why I backed them last night, and it looked like the winning did carry over. I’m looking for a similar effect here.
2.5-Unit Play. Take #901 New York Mets (-155) over Cincinnati (1 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. Take #901 New York Mets (-1.5, +110) over Cincinnati (1 p.m.)
The Mets have been money on Opening Day, posting the most wins of any club on MLB’s first day. New York has a load more experience and they have a lot of guys that played in the WBC this year, both of which I feel gives them an advantage in this game. It shows me that they have played in big games, they have dealt with the anxiety and pressure and excitement of many Opening Days and they know how to deal with it. It also shows me that a majority of these Mets played in the WBC and have already been taking meaningful at-bats this spring. Was a coincidence last night that Brian McCann and Jeff Franceour – two guys that played for Team USA in the WBC – were the two guys doing the most damage? I think not.
I’m a big Aaron Harang guy. I think he’s going to have a nice bounceback year. But the Mets have a huge edge here because they have lefty sticks that can get to Harang, while our lefty, Johan Santana, will be able to carve up the lefties for the Reds. The Mets are 13-3 in Johan’s last 16 starts and 9-1 when he is a favorite. The Mets were exceptional on the road last year and I expect that to carry over.
2.5-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 9.5 Cleveland at Texas (2 p.m.)
Ah, another season in Arlington. The wind is blowing out today - I mean straight out - at 19 miles per hour. As if either one of these lineups needed any help putting runs on the board they will be getting a little boost from Mother Nature. By now we all know what Kevin Millwood is and Cliff Lee has been a wreck this spring. He looks a bit too much like the 2007 Lee for my liking. We have two of the best lineups in the A.L., with the wind at their backs, going up against two iffy arms with not-so-strong bullpens waiting in the wings. We'll roll the bones here.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #904 Arizona (-160) over Colorado (3:40 p.m.)
It’s Brandon Webb in April. Sometimes its best not to complicate things. Webb is 17-2 in his career in April and the D-Backs are 37-14 in his last 51 home starts. The Rockies aren’t a great road team and aren’t a great underdog. Arizona is 15-3 in the last 18 meetings overall and 8-2 in their last 10 against Aaron Cook.
1-Unit Play. Take #921 Detroit (+135) over Toronto (7 p.m.)
Call me crazy, but I actually like the Tigers out of the box this season. I'm intent to work a chase on them similar to the one I worked on Atlanta - and hopefully with the same results. It's crazy to go against Doc Halladay at home. Crazy. But if there is a month to get on Doc it's in April. He has a career 20-16 mark in the opening month and is 111-50 in all the other months combined. I like the value here on the Tigers, as I don't think that the Jays have enough offense (again) this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #909 L.A. Dodgers (+115) over San Diego (7 p.m.)
Going against Peavy and Halladay - at home - on the same day? Yeah, I gotta do it. The Dodgers are the best in the West and Hiroki Kuroda is one of the few decent arms they have in that lineup. I just think that the Dodgers have enough offense to scratch out a couple runs against Peavy. I'm still very unsteady when it comes to the lineup that the Dads are trotting out there. If we lose to Peavy and Halladay then it cost us -200 to find out what we already knew. If we can just earn a split out of these two picks that's a profit from the pair and that fits into the rest of today's lineup.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #924 Minnesota (-140) over Seattle (8 p.m.)
No Ichiro for this one has the M’s scrambling to piece together a lineup that is strong at the top. The Mariners are not a great road team and haven’t been a great turf team. In fact, King Felix is just 8-13 with a 4.77 ERA on turf in his career. The Twins are going to ride that homefield advantage. And what they have lost with Mauer they have picked up with guys like Cuddyer, Crede, and Kubel. I like that Liriano is starting over Baker today and as long as Francisco stays away from Adrian Beltre I think the Twins can get to King Felix.Comment
-
Re: 4-6-09
BARRY HOLTHAUS
Michigan St. vs. N. Carolina
North Carolina -7
North Carolina has the two best players on the court in guard Ty Lawson and forward Tyler Hansbrough. This has been the goal of North Carolina since the start of the season, to win the national title, since last years loss to Kansas in the final four. The Tar Heels are playing their best basketball and get their 5th national title.Comment
Comment