4-9-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/09/09 - 12:35 PM ?
double-dime bet ml951 NYM (-120) SportBet vs 952 CIN
Analysis: ?** MLB 2* LATE STEAM **

vegas-runner | MLB Total Thu, 04/09/09 - 12:35 PM ?
double-dime bet 951 NYM / 952 CIN Under 9.5 SportBet
Analysis: ** MLB 2* LATE STEAM ** (UNDER -110)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Lenny Del Genio Guaranteed Selections
Date: Thursday, April 09, 2009
$40.00 Guaranteed: 3-game reports from former linesmaker Lenny Del Genio remain money in the bank! Yesterday, he cashed ANOTHER NBA Trifecta (now 31-15 L46) w/ winners on ATL and DET! Today, Lenny has his 2nd MLB Triple Play of the Season. His 1st was a 3-0 Sweep that included +180 Pittsburgh ***ALL AFTERNOON GAMES** 4/9/2009

Play on Cincinnati at 12:35 ET. We misfired on the Reds yesterday as our NL Game of the Week but come back firing on them today, noting their 16-8 home mark vs. southpaws last season. In those 24 games, the Cincinnati offense averaged 5.3 runs per game. Today, they'll get a chance to feast off Mets lefty Oliver Perez, who looked horrible this Spring. In his final Spring Training start, he recorded just two outs while giving up six runs and was booed heavily. This off a 2008 season where he failed to record back to back wins even once. Mets havent swept the Reds since 2005 and aren't about to do so here. Reds starter Bronson Arroyo comes off a career-high 15 wins last year. Take Cincinnati.
Play on Minnesota at 1:10 ET. We go back to the well with the Twins, who we cashed as our AL Game of the Week two days ago. With that win, Minnesota ran its record to 19-4 at home vs. lefties. This is a team that turned a huge profit at home overall last season and looks to have the best pitching staff in the AL Central. Seattle should be deflated here after blowing late leads in the last two games. The M's are just 9-22 revenging a one run loss. They are also 9-29 off BB Overs. Twins starter Perkins went 2-0 vs. the Mariners last year. Seattle is 38-66 off BB losses. Take Minnesota.

Play on Texas at 2:05 ET. Rangers have shelled Indians pitching for 17 runs in the first two games of this series and today get to feast on the much maligned Carl Pavano, who makes his Cleveland debut after a disastrous stint as a Yankee. Texas averaged 5.7 runs per game vs. righties here in Arlington last season. With an Opening Day loss, Cleveland dropped to 18-29 in day games. Take Texas.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

C-Stars Sports

1000 Units Top Play Texas over Cleveland
1000 Units Top Play Denver/Lakers OVER the total
1000 Units Top Play Yankees/Baltimore UNDER the total

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Handicapper: Nite Owl Sports
Sport: NBA Basketball
Game: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers - Thursday April 9, 2009 10:35 pm
Pick: 1 unit ATS: Los Angeles Lakers -8 (-110)



This pick on the LA Lakers is based mostly on the series dominance that Lakers have had over Denver during the last three years, with a 9-1 SU record (8-2 ATS) in the last ten games of the series, including going 5-0 SU and ATS at home vs Nuggets, with an average MOV of 16 points, including a 14 point home win in November (after the Billups-Iverson trade made by Denver earlier that month). But then a funny thing happened in the most recent game of the series, in denver in late February, where the Lakers totally stunk up the place for most of the game and lost, 79-90 for their lowest offensive output and probably their worst overall performance TY, certainly their least energetic. But whatever was causing their malaise that night, we don't expect a repeat of that tonite, with this not only a revenge game for LA but also an important game in their quest for the best overall record in NBA and HCA throughout the playoffs -- and in that race, they have the tiebreaker over Cavs (having beaten them twice TY), whom they trail by one game, and seem to have the easier remaining schedule of the two, with only one road game left, tomorrow night in Portland, while Cavs have two roadies (at Philly and Indy) and have been playing like crap on the road lately, plus a home game against boston.

And while denver is likely to be the more tired of the two teams, having played last night at home, a game in which denver stars CA and Nene each logged about 38 minutes, the Nuggets have not been too bad TY away in back to backs, with a 10-10 overall ATS mark in that mode (with average margin of loss just 3 points), including 5-7 away. And LA, playing with one day of rest, like they are tonite, is only 16-26 ATS in that rest mode, with an average MOV of just 6 points. Moreover, in games where Lakers have had the "rest advantage' over an unrested team, like tonite, they are just 1-4 ATS. And two of denver's best road performances TY as heavy road dogs of 8> points (an upset win by 9 at orlando and a six point covering loss at utah), came in the second game of a back to back, and after a win, no less, generally considered an unfavorable situation for the road team. So while Denver is playing in this generally unfavorable "win and travel" situation, based on the foregoing, we don't see that as much of a factor favoring the Lakers.

And speaking of the Lakers, they have been a pretty good 7-4 ATS in tonite's point spread range of 4-9.5 points, which includes 3-2 ATS in their games since jan 1 vs the NBA's elite, with covering home wins over Cavs, Rockets and Spurs, but a 6 point home loss to Magic and a 7 point non-covering win over Mavs, all for an average MOV of 9 points in those five recent representative home games. And while Denver has had its problems in second half of the season getting focused and motivated for road games when they are favored, that has not been a problem when they are 'dogged' on the road against good teams, having gone 3-0 ATS in their 3 such games since jan 1, with the aforementioned ATS wins at orlando and utah, plus a covering two point loss at Houston.

One final factor is the expected return of Laker Center Andrew Bynum, who has been out for over two months with a serious knee injury (torn MCL). While that will clearly be a positive for the Lakers in the long run and in the playoffs, we're not quite sure if it will help them or hinder them in this game, as teams which have adjusted to the absence of a star player (as Lakers clearly have with bynum) often welcome him back into the line up with open arms, but then have trouble re-adjusting to his presence, more so on offense than defense.

So based on all the foregoing, we recommend a small play on the LA Lakers, but only for one unit and only at a line of -8 or less.

Game update -- Thursday AM

As our subscribers know, we released this pick last night, at the opening line of -8, which is something we often do (releasing picks at favorable "prices," using the early, overnight lines which are available on the Top Ten picks menu), especially when we expect the line to move against us, as we did here -- thus our name, Nite Owl Sports. And predictably, the line has now climbed to -9 at most sports books, which we believe is a point too many to give this good Denver team, even though the Lakers should be motivated (for a change) for this game. And as is our typical MO when we are not wild about the full game line for a game, we will do an in depth survey today of the scoring patterns of both teams, using recent "representative games" of Lakers as medium priced home faves against teams with a talent level similar to denver's, and Denver games as medium priced road dogs against A teams like Lakers. And based on the results, we will determine if there is any value betting the Lakers vs the first quarter and/or the first half line. Splitting our plays (and thus allocating the risk) among the different available lines is something that we sometimes do, but only when our research clearly supports it -- like last nite, for example, when we played the SA Spurs on the 1Q, 1H and full game lines, victorious the first two due to a 33-16 SA first quarter and 49-47 first half, but then losing the full game play when Portland came on strong in the second half, incurring just a minimal loss on SA for the game due to having won our 1Q and 1H plays on them.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Tim Trushel

MLB
20* Featured Play: San Francisco Under 7.5 -110 (958

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/09/09 - 2:05 PM ?

double-dime bet ml968 CWS (-150) SportBet vs 967 KAN
Analysis:
** MLB 2* LATE STEAM **



DANKS vs Davies

vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/09/09 - 12:35 PM ?



double-dime bet ml951 NYM (-120) SportBet vs 952 CIN
Analysis: ª** MLB 2* LATE STEAM **
vegas-runner | MLB Total Thu, 04/09/09 - 12:35 PM ?

double-dime bet 951 NYM / 952 CIN Under 9.5 SportBet
Analysis: ** MLB 2* LATE STEAM ** (UNDER -110)
vegas-runner | MLB Money Line Thu, 04/09/09 - 1:35 PM ?

double-dime bet ml963 TAM (+135) SportBet vs 964 BOS
Analysis:
** MLB 2* LATE STEAM **



GARZA vs Matsuzaka

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Randall the Handle

New Jersey +1.02 over OTTAWA (REG)

Yes, the Sens have been playing a lot better since it hasn’t mattered but c’mon, there is just no way they should be favored here. The Devils are superior in every way and need only one more win to secure the #3 seed in the conference and they have a very remote chance of getting the #2 seed. The Sens are overvalued here due to three wins in a row but the three wins came against Philly in OT, a 3-2 win over Boston the game after Boston clinched the #1 seed and they’re coming off a 3-2 win over Montreal minus Schneider and Markov. The Devils lost to the Leafs 4-1 on Tuesday but out-shot Toronto 48-18. This is a Devils team that is not going to cruise into the playoffs. They need momentum and they’ll get it here against this vastly inferior squad. Play: New Jersey +1.02 (Risking 2 units).


Seattle/MINNESOTA over 9 +1.06

Two complete and utter stiffs will face off here and when you throw in two shaky pens and the Metrodome, it’s hard to imagine this one staying under this number. Glen Perkins went 12-4 last season but the only reason he did so was because of an average of 6.23 run support every time he took the mound. The fact is, lefties hit a whopping .352 off him and overall his BAA against was .301. In September of last year his ERA was over 7.00 and his WHIP was over 2.00. Jarrod Washburn isn’t much better and in fact could be worse. He was tagged in the spring to the tune of 51 hits in 30 innings to go along with a 6.60 ERA. Washburn went 5-14 last season with an ERA of 4.69 and that was after pitching half his games at arguably the best pitchers park in the majors. This ticket appears very likely to cash and frankly, I’d be a little surprised to even have to sweat it out. Play: Seattle/Minnesota over 9 +1.06 (Risking 2 units).



TEXAS –1.08 over Cleveland

Carl Pavano has barely seen the mound over the last five years and now he’s being asked to make his season debut against the powerful line-up of the Rangers. Pavano’s spring ERA was over 5.00 and the only reason he’s getting a chance is because the Indians got him to sign at the bargain basement price of 1.5M. One good inning in the majors gets you more than that. Furthermore, the Indians are 0-2 on the year, they’re not hitting and even with three Ranger errors and three walks yesterday they never really put a rally together. Brandon McCarthy is also a risk, as he has been plagued by injuries in whole brief career. However, he’s still young and he looked fairly sharp in spring, allowing just 20 hits in 22 innings. Ok, I can’t really give an edge to McCarthy over Pavano, as both could get slaughtered in this park, or any park for that matter. I can, however, give a big edge to the Rangers bats (they outscored Cleveland 17-6 in two games) and their bullpen and just in case it matters, McCarthy is 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA in five career starts against the Tribe. Play: Texas –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).



Oakland +1.10 over L.A. ANGELS (1st 5 innings)

You gotta love Brett Anderson. Man, this kid has excelled everywhere he’s pitched and he has the poise and command that it takes to be successful at this level too. Remember, the A’s traded Dan Haren to get him so they knew they were getting something good in return. Anderson pitched at all three levels of Oakland’s minor league system and struck out 118 in 105 innings while walking just 27 and posting a 3.69 ERA. He also led the U.S. Olympic team to the bronze medal with a win over Japan. He continued that strong pitching into spring training, finishing 3-1 with a 2.83 ERA with 15 strikeouts and six walks in 28 2-3 innings. ESPN reports that he’ll work with four good pitches (fastball, curve, slider and change) and they also report that he’ll mix it up and knows exactly what he’s doing on the mound. The Angels will send out Jared Weaver and he’s been on the decline just about every month since his debut. His ERA has risen each of the two years since, finishing at 4.33 last season. The Angels have never faced Anderson and he has a great chance to excel in his debut. Play: Oakland in the first five innings +1.10 (Risking 2 units).

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

**11-0 RUN** DAYTIME *ROUT* from SCOTT RICKENBACH!
Scott's "play on" team is a club who he wrapped up the '08 season by going 8-0 playing on or against that team. Their opponent is a team who Scott wrapped up '08 by going 3-0 playing on or against that club. Jump on this combined 11-0 (100%) run as Scott adds to 08's MLB profits of 159 units with a DAYTIME *ROUT* -Dodgers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Seabass Night plays

300* Milwaukee
100* steam on 76'ers

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-9-09

Maddux Sports

Hockey

#67 - NHL - 3 units on Dallas +100