4-13-09

[Mr. IWS]

Karl Garrett

20 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA (Moyer over Cabrera)....10 DIMER - TAMPA BAY (Kazmir over Wang)
20 DIMER - PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (Moyer over Cabrera)



The Phillies look like they have shaken off the sluggish start, as they just took the last pair at Colorado, and now make their way back east to face the winless Nationals.



Washington is not a very good team, and they are headed for another loss this afternoon in their home opener.



Jamie Moyer's best mound work last season came on the road where he went 10-3, with a 2.92 ERA. Philadelphia also went 6-3 at Washington, and 12-6 overall against the Nats in last year's season series.



Daniel Cabrera lost in his Washington debut, allowing 5 runs in 6 innings of work, and I am not sure his control is going to be able to make it through the Philly lineup more than once without giving up a few runs.



Moyer did go 3-0 in 5 starts against the Nats last year, including a 2-0 mark in DC allowing 3 runs over 12 innings of work.



Take the Phillies.



10 DIMER - TAMPA BAY RAYS (Kazmir over Wang)



Not sure Wang is ready to mow this lineup down, especially after the way he looked in his first start since last June, as he gave up a whopping 7 runs in just 4 innings of work.



Scott Kazmir counters, as he was sharp as tacks in his first start at Boston, limiting the Red Sox to 1 run in his 6 innings of work.



Kazmir is also 3-1 his last 4 decisions against the Yankees, and with the likes of Gardner, and Ransom in the lineup, and Texeira now listed as questionable, I don't see the Yankees wininng this game, I just don't.



Take Tampa in their home opener.
Today's Complimentary Selection

G-Man rolling with a 13-6 comp play run the last 19 days, and tonight I like the offense to lead the way to another OVER at Arlington.



Texas played OVER the total in all 3 of their home games last week against Cleveland, and there is no reason to think tonight's game against Baltimore won't land OVER the total as well.



Baltimore is fresh off a 6-game homestand that saw them land OVER the total in 4 of the 6 games.



Can't count on rookie Uehara to deliver another 5 innings of 1 run ball like he did in his ML debut against the Yankees last week, at least not in Texas. And you certainly can't count on Vincente Padilla against Baltimore, as the O's did tag him for 14 runs in 7 innings in a pair of 2008 starts in Baltimore.



Expect the offense to light the scoreboard up in this one, and for the Orioles-Rangers to make their way OVER the posted total.



3? OVER
(on a 1? to 5? basis)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Jeff Scott

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston -141 over OAKLAND: I will have a write up for this game after work, just wanted to get this one out before the line goes up.


3 UNIT PLAY

Philadelphia -115 over WASHINGTON: The Phillies are in their last 6 games as a road favorite and 10-2 in Moyers last 12 road starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5, while the Nationals are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and 5-16 in their last 21 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Jamie Moyer struggled in his first start vs the Braves, but he usually struggles vs them. Today though he will be facing a team he has handled. Moyer is 11-4 with a solid 2.83 ERA in 23 starts vs them and he is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at Nationals Park. Daniel Cabrera is just 48-60 with a 5.07 ERA in his career as a starter and he is 0-1 with a 13.50 ERA in 1 start vs the Phills. The Nationals are averaging just .244 on the year, while their pitching hgas been horrible as they have a 7.84 ERA overall, including an 11.14 ERA from their starters. Not good numbers, especially when about to face a strong Phillies offense. The Phils are only hitting about .260 on the year, but in their last 4 games the Phils offense has hit .324 and has scored 7.5 rpg. No way Washington can Match that. The Phills are the better squad here with a much better starter and they should have no problems with the Nats today.


2 UNIT PLAY

LA DODGERS -1.5 (+120) over San Francisco: The Dodgers are 4-3 on the year, but all 4 wins have been by 2 runs or more. Chad Billiningsley is 3-0 with a 3.69 ERA vs the Giants and he is also 17-8 with a 3.58 ERA at home. Yes Randy Johnson is undefeated in LA (7-0), but he has only faced them once here since 2004 and he is just 1-3 in his last 4 meetings with Dodger Blue overall. With Chad at home vs a Giants team that has scored just 7 total runs in their 3 games away from home and with RJ not the same pitcher he wonce was I'll epect LA to take this one by 3+ runs.


1 UNIT PLAYS

CHICAGO -133 over Colorado: The Rockies are 1-6 in Jimenezs last 7 starts with 5 days of rest, while the Cubs are 12-2 in Lillys last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 9-2 in his last 11 starts during game 1 of a series. Ted Lilly has pitched well at Wrigley Field, going 16-10 with a 4.13 ERA there, with teams hitting just .235 vs him in his home starts there. Ubaldo Jiminez has not fared well vs the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 7.24 ERA in 3 starts vs them. The Cubs bats are coming alive and even though they will be playing about 15 hours after their game with the Brewers they should still have little trouble with the Rockies today.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Savannah Sports

MLB Baseball

3 units on Tampa Bay -125

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Insider Sports Report

4* Philadelphia (Moyer) -115 over Washington (Cabrera)
Range: +100 to -135

3* Chicago White Sox (Floyd)/Detroit (Miner) UNDER 9.5
Range: 10 to 9

3* Memphis/Phoenix (NBA) UNDER 221
Range: 223 to 219.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Discount Sports Picks

10* Pittsburgh (Duke) -140 over Houston (Moehler)
5* Boston (Lester) -130 over Oakland (Braden)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

THE SPORTS ADVISORS

Chicago (40-40, 41-38-1 ATS) at Detroit (39-41, 34-46 ATS)

The streaking Bulls have won four straight and are trying to get to the sixth spot in the Eastern Conference playoff standings and will square off with the Pistons, who are in the eighth position, a game behind Chicago and Philadelphia.

Chicago continued its winning ways with Saturday’s 113-106 victory over Charlotte, but it came up short as a 9½-point home favorite to drop to 2-2 ATS during its winning streak. The Bulls have been scoring at will lately, topping 103 points in each of their last eight games.

Detroit had a three-game winning streak snapped Saturday when it fell in Indiana 106-102 as a two-point road ‘dog. The Pistons clinched their playoff spot on Friday with a 100-93 win at home over the Nets, but failed to cover as eight-point favorites. Prior to Saturday’s loss, Detroit had held four straight opponents to 97 points or less.

The host has won five straight in this series, but the Bulls have dominated at the window, cashing in each of the last seven games and nine of the last 10. Most recently, Chicago got a 99-91 win on March 24 as a five-point home chalk, and in their December matchup in Detroit the Pistons prevailed 104-98 but came up short as seven-point favorites, the fourth straight cover for the Bulls in the Palace at Auburn Hills. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series clashes.

Chicago is on ATS runs of 5-2 as a ‘dog, 7-3-1 on the road against teams with a winning home mark and 9-3 following a non-cover, but it is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win. Detroit is on ATS slides of 1-5 against Central Division teams, 7-17 at home, 8-19 as a home favorite and 2-5 after a non-cover, but the Pistons have cashed in eight straight Monday contests.

The Bulls are on “over” runs of 9-4 as a road ‘dog, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 19-9-1 against Central Division foes. Likewise, the Pistons are on “over” stretches of 13-5-1 overall, 10-3-1 against Eastern Conference teams, 5-1 at home, 6-1 as a favorite, 5-0 at home against teams with losing road records and 10-3-1 after getting a day off. Finally, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between these rivals and 5-0 in the last five clashes in Michigan.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER


New Orleans (49-31, 34-44-2 ATS) at Houston (52-28, 39-40-1 ATS)

The Rockets are shooting for their fifth straight win when they welcome the Hornets into the Toyota Center in Houston in a matchup of Southwest Division rivals and Western Conference playoff squads.

New Orleans beat Dallas 102-92 at home on Sunday, covering as a four-point favorite. The Hornets are in the sixth spot in the Western Conference playoff race, one game ahead of Dallas and two ahead of the Jazz.

Houston got a 113-109 win at Golden State on Saturday but came up just short as six-point favorites. The Rockets are tied for the third seed in the playoff race with Portland and they’re just a half-game ahead of the Spurs in the Southwest Division standings.

The Rockets have won two of the three head-to-head meetings with New Orleans this season (2-1 ATS), including a 95-84 win in the Big Easy on March 16 as six-point ‘dogs. Houston has cashed in four of the last six meetings overall, but the Hornets are on a 7-2 ATS run in the Toyota Center.

New Orleans is on ATS slides of 2-5 on the road, 1-5 on Mondays and 1-4 against Western Conference teams. Conversely, Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home fans.

The Hornets enter this contest on “under” streaks of 13-4 overall, 6-2 on the road, 9-4 against Western Conference teams and 7-0-1 on the road against teams with winning home records. On the flip side, the Rockets are on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 at home and 5-1 against Western Conference teams.

In this series, the under is 4-0 in the last four battles overall and 6-2 in the last eight at the Toyota Center.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER


AMERICAN LEAGUE

N.Y. Yankees (3-3) at Tampa Bay (3-3)

The Yankees send Chien-Ming Wang (0-1, 17.18 ERA) to the mound today to face the Rays and lefty Scott Kazmir (1-0, 1.50 ERA) in the home opener for Tampa Bay at Tropicana Field.

New York’s three-game winning streak came to an end Sunday with a 6-4 loss in Kansas City, Meanwhile, Tampa salvaged a three-game series in Baltimore by routing the Orioles on Sunday 11-3 to end its six-game, season-opening road trip. The Yankees won six of the last eight meetings with the Rays last year and they’re 6-2 in Wang’s last eight starts versus Tampa.

The Yankees are on positive streaks of 5-3 on the road, 5-1 in series openers, 5-1 as underdogs and 5-0 against southpaws. The Rays are also on a plethora of positive streaks, including 58-20 at home, 43-13 at home against right-handed starters and 48-18 as a home favorite.

Wang, making his first start since June 15, 2008, got knocked around at Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up seven runs on nine hits in just 3 2/3 innings of a 7-5 loss. He missed the second half of last season with a leg injury but the Yankees won his final five starts. The right-hander faced the Rays twice last season and allowed a combined one run on 11 hits in 13 innings but the Bronx Bombers split the two contests, winning 2-0 at home and losing 2-1 in Tampa. For his career, Wang is 7-4 with a 3.35 ERA against the Rays in 86 innings of work.

Kazmir pitched well in his first start of the year Wednesday, holding Boston to one run on five hits in six innings as the Rays rolled to a 7-2 victory. He saw the Yankees three times last season and gave up a total of two runs in 17 innings as the Rays won two of his three starts. In 12 career games against the Yankees, Kazmir is 4-4 with a 2.51 ERA in 68 innings of action.

Despite Wednesday’s ugly loss to the Orioles, New York is on several positive runs with Wang on the hill, including 41-16 overall, 21-7 when he starts on the road, 21-6 when he opens a series and 6-2 when he faces A.L. East squads. Tampa is on streaks of 22-10 in Kazmir’s last 32 starts, 19-7 when he starts at home, 20-7 when he’s a favorite and 5-2 against A.L. East competition.

New York has topped the total in six of Wang’s last seven starts, but the under has been the play in five of his last seven as a road ‘dog and the under is 6-1-2 in his last nine against Tampa. As a team, the Yankees are on “over” runs of 7-3 as a road ‘dog, 5-2 on field turf, 6-2 on Mondays and 5-1 against A.L. East foes.

Tampa Bay is on a plethora of “over” runs with Kazmir on the hill, including 9-3 overall, 6-2 at home, 7-0 against A.L. East teams, 7-1 as a favorite and 6-1 when he gets four days of rest. As a team, the Rays are on “under” streaks of 5-2 overall, 6-2 against A.L. East teams, 4-0 at home and 4-1 as a home favorite.

Finally, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TAMPA BAY


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (2-4) at Oakland (2-4)

A pair of southpaws will take the mound in Oakland when Jon Lester (0-1, 9.00 ERA) and the Red Sox open a three-game set against Dallas Braden (0-1, 4.50) and the A’s.

Both teams lost heartbreakers Sunday, with Boston falling 5-4 in Anaheim, while the A’s got swept by the Mariners after 1-0 home defeat. The Red Sox have won nine of the last 13 meetings overall with Oakland, but they are just 4-11 in their last 15 visits to northern California.

As a team, Boston is just 3-8 in its last 11 as a favorite, but it is 13-3 in its last 16 series openers, 12-4 in its last 16 against A.L. West teams and 43-15 against teams with losing records. Oakland is mired in funks of 2-9 overall, 0-6 against southpaws and 5-18 against A.L. East squads.

Lester got knocked around at home by the Rays on Wednesday, giving up five runs on eight hits over five innings of a 7-2 home loss. He also got touched up in the American League Championship Series in his last two starts last season, allowing eight runs (seven earned) on 14 hits in 12 2/3 innings. He made four starts against the A’s last season, including three in California, with the Red Sox going 2-2. Lester is 2-2 with a 3.94 ERA in his career against Oakland.

Braden has had a week off since his Opening Day start in Anaheim when he allowed three runs on nine hits in six innings of a 3-0 loss. The A’s won five of Braden’s final seven starts last season, and he allowed the opposition three runs or less in six of the seven contests. He’s made just one career start against the Red Sox and allowed four runs on six hits in 3 1/3 innings of a 5-2 loss in Boston last August.

While the BoSox are just 1-4 in Lester’s last five roadies, they are on several positive runs with the lefty on the hill, including 35-16 overall, 25-9 as a favorite, 7-1 on Mondays, 5-0 against A.L. West teams and 23-6 when he faces teams with a losing record. The A’s are 5-2 in Braden’s last seven starts as a ‘dog and 4-1 in his last five as a home pup.

The Red Sox are on several “under” runs with Lester on the hill, including 6-2-1 on the road, 6-0-1 in series openers, 5-2 as a favorite and 7-3 against A.L. West teams. As a team, Boston is on “under” streaks of 20-8-3 in series openers 11-5-1 as a favorite and 4-0 as a road chalk.

With Braden starting, the A’s are on “under” runs of 5-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 as a ‘dog and 5-2 in series openers. As a team, Oakland is on “under” streaks of 35-16 in series openers and 14-5 against A.L. East teams, but the A’s have topped the total in four of six at home and four of five overall.

In this series, the under has been the play in seven of the last 10 meetings in Oakland.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Las Vegas Sport Picks

2* Bucks -3
4* Blazers -12

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

erin rynning
pittsburgh and tampa bay

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Total Sports Solution ( SWAMMI )

5's Tampa, KC, Minnesota

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Maddux Sports

Basketball

#507 - NBA - 3 units on Charlotte +4
#522 - NBA - 3 units on Portland -12.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Beat Your Bookie

Daily Premium Hoops & Hockey Winners for Monday

NBA Basketball

100* Play Orlando (+4) over Milwaukee (NBA)

Orlando is 12-3 ATS when playing as an underdog this season
Orlando is 15-4 ATS in road games when the total is between 195 and
199.5
Orlando is 13-3 SU coming off an upset loss as a favorite
Orlando is 8-2 SU vs. Milwaukee over the last 3 seasons


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Other Hoops & Hockey Plays

50* Play Memphis (+9) over Phoenix (NBA)

No NHL Plays Today

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

FeRrringo 4-13-09
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1.5-Unit Play. Take #955 Philadelphia (-110) over Washington (3 p.m., Monday, April 13)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #960 New York Mets (-1.5, +100) over San Diego (7 p.m., Monday, April 13)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #974 Minnesota (-120) over Toronto (8 p.m., Monday, April 13)


1.5-Unit Play. Take #972 Kansas City (-120) over Cleveland (8 p.m., Monday, April 13)


Underdog System Plays
1-Unit Play. Take #957 San Francisco (+165) over L.A. Dodgers (4 p.m., Monday, April 13)

1-Unit Play. Take #961 Cincinnati (+130) over Milwaukee (8 p.m., Monday, April 13)

1.5-Unit Play. Take #951 Houston (+125) over Pittsburgh (1:30 p.m., Monday, April 13)


Today’s Total
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 Baltimore at Texas (8 p.m., Monday, April 13

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Maddux Sports

Basketball

#507 - NBA - 3 units on Charlotte +4
#522 - NBA - 3 units on Portland -12.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

DOC NBA 4-13-09
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3-Unit Play #503 Take Toronto +2 ½ Over Washington (7 p.m. EST, Monday)
Writeup Coming Soon

5-Unit NBA Game of the Week #507 Take Charlotte/New Jersey UNDER 196 (7:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
Writeup Coming Soon

4-Unit Play #511 Take Minnesota/Dallas UNDER 201 (8:30 p.m. EST, Monday)
Writeup Coming Soon

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-13-09

Maddux Sports



MLB - 2 units on NY Yankees +144
MLB - 2 units on Cleveland +112
MLB - 2 units on Oakland +137