4-18-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-18-09

Guaranteed Pick: John Ryan

Game: Houston Rockets at Portland Trail Blazers Apr 18 2009 10:30PM
Prediction: Houston Rockets
Reason: Ai Simulator 10* graded play on Houston as the travel to face Portland slated to start at 10:35 EST. AiS shows an 86% probability that Houston will lose this game by 4 or fewer points and also has a 63% probability of winning the game. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 40-19 ATS mark for 68% winners since 1996. Play against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points in a game involving two good offensive teams scoring 98-102 PPG after allowing 90 points or less 2 straight games. AiS also shows a 93% probability that Houston will hit between 32 adn 36% of their 3-point shots. Note that Houston is a solid 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in road games when they make 32% to 38% of their three point attempts in a game over the last 2 seasons. Houston is a strong 35-13 ATS (+20.7 Units) versus poor pressure defensive teams forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons; 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season this season. Portland is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) when the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season. Houston is a solid Rockets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest; 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points; 5-1 ATS in their last 6 versus NBA Northwest division. I strongly beleive the biggest advantage for Houston is their physicality. Specifically, the fact that Ron Artest ad Battier will be able to contain Roy. Houston will force Portland’s other players to hit shots from the perimeter and not allow Roy to have a big scoring game and minimize his abilities to penetrate and then dish off to an open team mate on the perimeter. Plus, I see a huge advantage of Houston’s top scorer Ming in the paint. Take Houston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-18-09

6 Unit Series Wager.

PARLAY DENVER -220 & ORLANDO -1000 for the Series.

A 6 Unit Wager will yield you 3.6 Units here. Given that each of our plays are 4 Units, this is a standard wager for us and we are riding two teams that both have home court advantages and have a nice set of advantages in this series. I talk about each series in the daily page on the Research, so I will have more thoughts on these two teams tomorrow. But, bear in mind that the Nuggets closed the year very strong. They have won 8 of their last 10 and I love the fact they come off a 76-104 loss at Portland. That's great. In fact, Karl probably wanted his team to come off that loss so they remain focused and fired up for this game. These two teams have met four times so far this year and have actually split. Each team has won home once and each team has won on the road once. Denver won 101-88 last time out on the road, New Orleans won 94-81 at home prior to that, Denver won 105-100 at home and New Orleans won 101-105 on the road. But, the difference to this series and frankly, the difference in how these two teams finished the regular season is the fact that Denver has a bench that is stepping up with JR Smith and has a General this year as compared to last year. Billups has stabilized this team to 54 wins on the year, plus New Orleans has just not been clicking well to close the year out. This team has lost 6 of their last 8 and finished 1-3 on the road this year. Again, I love the fact that Denver comes off an ugly loss to Portland the road, they win at home on Sunday, and I expect them to pick up right where they left off winning 7 of their last 9 as compared to New Orleans who simply won 2 of their last 8. I got nothing against New Orleans, this team is solid, plays strong defense and has a great general of their own in Chris Paul. But, bear in mind the way New Orleans struggled on the road at San Antonio, at Dallas, losing 66-86 at Houston, the home court advantage of Denver, I suspect Denver wins this series in 6 games as they pluck off a road win in the process. As per Orlando, not much needs to be said outside the fact Orlando has covered and won all 3 times these two teams have met, the Magic are well rested, and Philadelphia comes into this game 1-6 over their last 7 games and even the win at Cleveland in OT was a failed cover as they were laying 3 as Lebron was out in that game. Denver in 6 and Orlando in 5.