4-20-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

ATS’ FREE Baseball Selection for Monday, April 20th:
Cincinnati (+120) over Houston

The Matchup:
Cincinnati Reds (6-5) at Houston Astros (4-8), 8:05 p.m.
Probable Starting Pitchers:
Cincinnati - Bronson Arroyo (2-0, 4.38) Houston - Mike Hampton (1-1, 2.45)

(ATS Consultants) - Mike Hampton will make his first home start of the season in an Astros uniform tonight, as Houston concludes a four-game set with the Cincinnati Reds at Minute Maid Park.

The 36-year-old Hampton has now come full circle with the Astros. He pitched with the club from 1994-1999, going 22-4 with a 2.90 earned run average in his final season in Houston. He then moved on to the New York Mets, Colorado and Atlanta, never winning more than 15 games in a season before getting derailed due to a host of injuries. Hampton rejoined the Astros prior to this season and is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA through two starts. The left-hander lost in St. Louis on April 10 before getting a win in Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Hampton tossed six shutout innings in that one, scattering four runs and a walk while striking out eight. He is 6-5 with a 3.95 ERA in 23 games (18 starts) lifetime versus the Reds.

Bronson Arroyo counters for the Reds looking for his first 3-0 start since starting 2006 -- his first with Cincinnati -- with five straight winning decisions. The 32-year-old right-hander got a win over the Mets on April 9 despite allowing five runs in six innings of work. He pitched much better on Tuesday versus Milwaukee, allowing a run on four hits and four walks over 6 1/3 frames to lower his ERA from 7.50 to 4.38. Arroyo went just 1-3 with a 6.12 ERA in four starts versus the Astros last year and is 5-6 with a 5.61 ERA against them in 20 lifetime games, 14 of those starts.

The Reds offense was lifted by a pitcher on Sunday, as hurler Micah Owings had a pinch-hit, two-run double that highlighted a three-run seventh inning and rallied Cincinnati to a 4-2 win. Willy Taveras also drove in a run for the Reds, who have won two of three so far in the series. Edinson Volquez (2-1) got the victory after going six innings and yielding a run on four hits while fanning seven and walking five. Francisco Cordero was credited with his fourth save despite giving up a run in the ninth.

Miguel Tejada went 3-for-5 to lead Houston and drove in the 1,100th run of his career. Carlos Lee had a sac fly for the Astros and Michael Bourn scored twice in the loss. Astros reliever Geoff Geary (0-1) blew the save and was saddled with the loss after giving up two runs -- one earned -- on two hits along with a costly fielding error in the seventh.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Seabass

100* Bulls
100* Mavericks

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Bob Balfe

04/20/2009
MLB Baseball
Astros -130 over Reds
Hampton/Arroyo

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Craig Davis
Monday's Lineup
30 Dime ---- BULLS

10 Dime ---- Braves-Nationals OVER

BULLS --- It might look, on the surface, that this game is going to be one of those “they got their butts kicked in Game 1 so they’ll come out and dominate in Game 2” scenarios. I don’t think so. I like the Bulls as my top play winner today for several reasons.

I knew Boston wouldn’t be the same team without Garnett, but I didn’t realize the difference would be this noticeable. Without Garnett, the Bulls are able to watch Allen and Pierce closer (as evidenced by Allen’s 1-for-10 shooting Saturday), and they don’t worry as much about low post scoring.

John Salmons has been a HUGE addition to the Bulls roster since coming over from Sacramento… but it doesn’t always show up on the scoreboard (for him personally). It really all depends on how the Celtics play it here. Saturday, the Celts decided they wanted to keep Salmons (and the other perimeter shooters) in check, but what that did was allow Derrick Rose to have a career day with his dribble penetration and they simply had no answer for him.

In their previous, regular season, meeting (a 127-121 Chicago win back on March 17th), the Celtics were focused on stopping Rose and his penetration (which they did successfully), but what that did was open up shots for Salmons and Ben Gordon (don’t forget about him). You see, either way you slice it, Boston doesn’t have enough defenders now to keep every Chicago shooter in check and that was eventually their downfall in Game 1 of this series.

And let’s not forget about depth. All I hear is how deep Boston is and how that will push them over the edge in matchups like this one. But I look at Chicago and I see a very deep team. Brad Miller (a former starter), Kirk Hinrich (a former starter), Tim Thomas, etc. I’m not worried one bit if someone happens to get into early foul trouble because I believe in this team’s bench and you should too. They’re deep, trust me.

One other concern I have for the Celtics today is their shooting percentages. Let’s be real, Chicago isn’t known as a defensive monster and for them to hold Boston to 39% shooting from the field is a bit mind-boggling. Now, I’m not saying this has all of a sudden become a bad shooting team, but what became very evident is the fact that Chicago is younger, more athletic, and now they have confidence… something Boston didn’t want to give them in Game 1.

Bottom line: Boston might win this game, but I don’t see either team grabbing more than an eight-point lead at any point in the contest and we’re grabbing a gross amount of points again here as the road team. Take Chicago as your top play of the day.

BRAVES-NATIONALS OVER --- You might be thinking I’m crazy for choosing the “OVER” in a game that Derek Lowe is pitching, but I look at this “launching pad” in Washington as a mecca for OVERS and tonight should be no different.

On one hand you have the Nationals scoring over 5 runs per game. On the other hand, you have the Braves facing a rookie who is greener than the grass they’ll play on tonight. Jordan Zimmerman was the opening day starter for the Syracuse Chiefs, the new Triple-A affiliate for the Nationals, and it didn’t take him long to get called up. Though he wasn’t brilliant in his AAA debut (allowing 2 HR in 5+ innings of work), he was good enough to get the call up as the team’s 5th starter in the rotation.

These two have already met three times this season, and the lowest run total was 8 but the run total for the three-game set was 32… that’s nearly 11 runs per game. And if you’re wondering --- yes, Derek Lowe was a starter in one of those other two games that went OVER the total… a 6-5 Braves win.

Guys, it simply doesn’t matter who is pitching or what team plays Washington, the number rarely stays below 10. All we need is nine tonight and we cash in. The Nats have finished OVER in 8 of 11 games with one push while Atlanta has gone OVER in 6 of 12. The OVER has also cashed in 11 of the last 13 H2H meetings and 19 of the last 28 (two pushes) in Washington home games. Atlanta might go OVER by themselves, telling me this game is as easy as OVER by the 7th inning.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Akmens

Montreal +115
Rangers +110

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

SEABASS

20* BASEBALL
ATL
COLORADO
OAK/YANKS Over (Game has been postponed!)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Kelso

10 Mavs
3 Bulls

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

indiancowboy

4 Unit Play. Under 8.5 between Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals

4 Unit Play. Take Under 197 between Chicago Bulls @ Boston Celtics

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Scott Delaney

30Scott Delaney

Playoff Total of the Year ...
30 DIME OVER Celtics/Bulls - Simply put, the Celtics can’t afford to *****foot around with this young Chicago team. And if running with the Bulls is what it’ll take to get things done, then run-and-gun basketball is what we’re going to see with these two in Game 2 tonight. I’m going to repeat a lot of what I said with my free-pick analysis on the Celtics, because much of that has to do with why I like the Over much more than I do the side in this game.



Boston’s sense of urgency will be on high alert tonight, and it’s not going to have time to sit back and try to stop the Bulls, it’s going to need to run and score right along with the young boys from the Windy City. This is unfamiliar territory for the Celtics, being down in a series, and the veteran leadership of Paul Pierce will be key to our scoring pace.



At home, this team knows how to be aggressive and knows how to penetrate with the basketball to get this game in its hands. We need to control the pace immediately, and force the Bulls to play defense, not the opposite.



As I stated in my free-pick area, I think the quick turnaround is great for Boston because there’sno doubt in my mind it is ready for the next game. The Celtics will be pushing the tempo, hoping to knot the series as soon as possible.



The numbers certainly favor us, as the over is on runs of 14-6 when the Bulls are installed as the underdog and 7-3 when they play the Atlantic Division. With Boston, the high number is on streaks of 7-1 overall, 21-6 at home and 16-5 against then Eastern Conference. Finally, and most relevant, while the over has come in five of the last seven times these two have met, it’s also on a 4-1 run when they meet in Boston.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Jeff Scott


4 UNIT PLAY

Colorado +110 over ARIZONA: The Rockies are 10-4 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Diamondbacks are 1-6 in their last 7 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Neither team is hitting for much right now, but I feel the Rockies have a better chance of breaking out than the D-Backs in this one. The Rockies have hit just .195 and have scored just 3.6 rpg over that stretch, but today they will be facing a struggling starter. Jon Garland comes in with a 1-1 record, but a very high 8.44 ERA and dating back to last year Jon has an ERA of 7.48 in his last 9 starts. This guy has been rocked over that stretch and that is why I see the Rockies good offense that may be just 26th in hitting (.230), but is 14th in scoring (4.91 rpg), breaking out today. Arizona's offense has struggled all year long as they are just 29th in hitting (.215) and 28th in scoring (3.33 RPG). The D-Backs come in hitting just .208 in their last 5 games, while scoring just 3.2 rpg over that stretch, plus they have been shutout in 2 of their last 3 games. Today the task of them breaking out will not be easy as they are facing Jason Marquis, who is off to a 2-0 start with a solid 1.93 ERA. Jason doesn't have a good record vs the D-Backs (2-5), but he has not pitched that bad as he has a 3.41 ERA vs them. I don't epect a ton of run sin this one, but the Rockies will put enough on the board to get the win.



3 UNIT PLAYS

(Power Angle Play)

Atlanta/ Washington Over 8.5: The Over is 13-3 in Braves last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 12-4 in their last 16 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, while the Over is 6-1-1 in Nationals last 8 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game and 16-5-1 in their last 22 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, plus the Over is 11-2 in the last 13 meetings. Nationals Park is the 6th ranked scoring park in the league at 11.6 rpg. Washington is hitting a solid .282 and scoring 5.6 rpg at home this year. Derek Lowe has pitched well this year, but once he is out of their he will be turning the ball over to one of the worst pens in the league. In 36.2 innings of work the atlanta bullpen has a 7.36 ERA, plus in 6 road games their penn has an ERA of 12.46. Wow. The Nats starters have done a good job at home this year with a 2.43 ERA, but once they are gone a struggling bullpen that has an 8.35 ERA at home will take over. The Braves offense is scoring 4.67 rpg overall and 5 rpg on the road and they will be facing a pitcher that is making his first career start. Jordan Zimmerman has no starts in his career, but he did have 12 relief appearances for the Mariners back in 1999 and he had a 7.88 ERA in those games. No matter what I don't expect both starters to be in there for the whole game and that means that two of the worst pens in the league will take over giving us plenty of chances for some late runs. I see 12+ runs in this one.

POWER ANGLE For This Play--- Since Oct 2004, the Over is 17-5-2 when the Braves are on the road off a win in which they had 12+ hits and this is the first game of the series.



Colorado/ Arizona Under 10.5: The Under is 5-2-1 in Rockies last 8 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game, while the Under is 4-1 in Diamondbacks last 5 games following a loss. As I stated above, neither team is hitting the ball very well right now, as the Rockies have scored just 3 rpg in their last 5, while the D-Backs have put just 2 total runs in their last 3 games. Jon Garland has never faced the Rockies, while Jason Marquis has and in his last 10 starts vs them the teams have combined for just 7 rpg, including just 7.4 rpg in his last 5 meetings in Arizona. I see this one falling at 7 or 8 runs.



2 UNIT PLAY

PHILADELPHIA -150 over San Diego: The Phils are 12-2 in their last 14 games off a come back win, while the Padres are 4-16 in their last 20 games as a road dog in the last game of a series.



1 UNIT PLAYS

Cincinnati/ Houston Over 8: Bronson Arroyo has a career 6.05 ERA at Minute Maid Park, while Mike Hampton has a 5.52 ERA there. Te Over is 5-0-1 in Arroyos last 6 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5, while the Over is 10-2-1 in Hamptons last 13 starts with 4 days of rest. Bronson's last 6 trips to Houston has produced 9.7 rpg, while Mikes last 5 mettings with the Reds has produced 12 rpg. This game should hit double figueres.

Atlanta -137 over WASHINGTON: The Braves are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, while the Nationals are 10-42 in their last 52 games following a loss and 2-10 in their last 12 home games. Derek Lowe vs a rookie stater. Nuff said.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Frank Patron

10000 Unit Nba Playoff Lock

San Antonio Spurs -6

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-20-09

Robert Ferrringo

3-Unit Play. Take Chicago (+8.5) over Boston

There are two trains of thought for this game, one, Boston won't be going down 0-2 and Ray Allen will play much better, and two, The Bulls are just a bad matchup for the Celtics. I believe in the second. After watching Chicago in the first game you know that they have the confidence and the ability to not only play with the Celtics, but beat them. Without Garnett this team is an enigma offensively and you can rely on Ray Ray. Mr. "He Got Game" has been a no show throught his career in the playoffs, excluding the Championship series last year, and that is not something this Celtics team can bounce back from. I know that Derrick Rose scored 36 and he might not do that again, but Rajon Rondo will not be scoring 30 either. Rose was unstoppable, and he should be througout this series. The Celtics are getting too much respect with this high line.


MLB

Underdog System Plays

1-Unit Play. Take Washington (+135) over Atlanta
1-Unit Play. Take Colorado (+110) over Arizona