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Re: 4-22-09
Al
At 3:40pm our NL Total of the Month is on the Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks 'under' the total.
At 12:35pm our selection is on the Florida Marlins over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
At 8:05pm our NL Underdog of the Month is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Houston Astros.
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat plus the points over the Atlanta Hawks. -
Re: 4-22-09
Scott Spreitzer
Game: San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants Apr 22 2009 3:45PM
Prediction: San Diego Padres
Reason: I'm playing the Padres with Young over Zito. After his latest loss and poor performance, Barry Zito said he was "in the right place, but things weren't breaking his way." WHAT!? The bottom line is that Zito hasn't found the "goods" that led to his huge "payday" when he crossed the bay. Meanwhile, Chris Young has been an outstanding daytime pitcher, especially away from home. He's 13-3 lifetime in this situation with a 3.00 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and ridiculous .195 BAA. He sports a career 3.57 ERA against the Giants, and owns a 22-11 overall record in road outings. Add in SFO's anemic hitting and we have a solid BLOCKBUSTER BLOWOUT release on the Padres. Look for San Diego to get right back in the win column with a daytime winner on Wednesday. Thanks! GL! Scott.Comment
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Re: 4-22-09
Ness
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Hou Astros at 8:05 ET. The Astros ended LA's eight-game winning streak last night with an 8-5 victory. Tonight, team ace Roy Oswalt, looks to pick up his first win of the 2009 season against LA's Randy Wolf. Oswalt has opened the 2009 season 0-2 with a 4.26 ERA in three starts. He allowed five hits over six scoreless innings last Friday at home vs the Reds but failed to get the win when Houston closer Velarde allowed a two-run HR in the 9th. However, let's look at the bigger picture. Oswalt has been among MLB's finest pitchers since going 14-3 (2.73 ERA) in his first year with the team (2001). He was an Opening Day loser to Carlos Zambrano and the Cubs 4-2 in 2009, going seven innings, while allowing seven hits and three ERs. He then pitched poorly in St Louis on Saturday, allowing six runs and nine hits over six innings for the Astros in an 11-2 loss to the Cardinals. That outing was somewhat surprising, as he had a 1.83 ERA in five previous starts at the new Busch. Then came Friday's tough no decision vs the Reds. He'll take a career 129-66 (3.14) mark into this game, which is a winning percentage of .662. It should also be noted that the Astros are an impressive 157-95 in all his starts (.623), with the breakdown being much more favorable at home (87-38 or .696) than it is on the road (70-57 or .551). LA counters with Randy Wolf, who is 1-1 with a 3.93 ERA in three starts in '09 (team is 2-1). He's in his second stint with the Dodgers and Wolf's last "good year" came back in 2003 with Philadelphia, when he went 16-10. He began last year with the Padres and then moved on to Houston, finishing a combined 12-12 with a 4.30 ERA. Those teams combined to go 18-15 in his 33 starts and while his home efforts were pretty good (teams were 12-5 as he posted a 2.98 ERA), he was ineffective on the road. Wolf's road ERA was 5.76, as the Padres and Astros went 6-10. The Dodgers struggled vs righties on the road last year (22-33 while averaging 3.7 RPG) and have opened 4-4 away from home vs righties in '09, despite their overall fast start. As for the Astros, they went 14-8 vs lefties at home last season, including 11-6 at night, where they averaged 4.9 RPG. Houston has faced just one lefty at home this year and while the Astros lost that game, they did score six runs. The lefty/righty situation favors the Astros in this game plus Oswalt over Wolf is also a mismatch. Situational Mismatch 15* Hou Astros.
My 15* Team Mismatch is on the StL Cards at 8:15 ET. The Cards fell behind 4-0 last night but rallied to win 6-4, extending their home winning streak to five straight. The Cards are 6-2 at home in '09, outscoring opponents 5.50 RPG-to-3.25. The Mets fell to 6-7 on the season (3-4 on the road) and as I mentioned yesterday in going against them, the Mets have NOT hit in the clutch this season. That's nothing new, as the team was tied for 11th in the NL last season with a .253 average with RISP and entered last night's contest hitting .236 with RISP to open 2009. John Maine has been steady for the Mets these last two seasons with 25 wins (team is 33-24 in his starts) but has lasted just five innings in each of his two starts this year (both NY losses), allowing eight ERs (7.20 ERA). The Cards start a "reclamation project" in Joel Pineiro. Pineiro had a 'live' arm and was seemingly headed for big things after going 30-18 with a 3.52 ERA in the 2002 and 2003 seasons for the Mariners (Seattle was 36-24 in his 60 starts). However, he IMPLODED the next three years, going 21-35 with a 6.03 ERA (Seattle went 27-49 in his 76 starts). He resurfaced in Boston's bullpen in 2007 but did much better after getting traded to St Louis, making 11 starts at the end of that year. He went 7-7 with a 5.15 ERA in 25 starts for the Cards last year (team was 12-13) but let's note that while he had a 5.76 road ERA, his ERA here at home was 3.93. That's been the case this year for Pineiro, as while he's off to a 2-0 start, his home start (6.2 IP / 8 hits / 2 ERs) was MUCH better than his road start (5 IP / 9 hits / 5 ERs). The Mets are hitting .287 as a team while the Cards are batting .291 but the real difference comes in productivity, as the Mets are averaging 4.54 RPG while the Cards average 5.93 (almost 1 1/2 runs more per game, which is a HUGE difference). Since neither starting pitcher is much to speak of (although Pineiro has done quite well here in Busch since the beginning of last year), I'm sticking with the Cards. Team Mismatch 15* StL Cards.
My Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Angels at 10:05 ET. The Tigers rolled into the 2006 World Series where everyone thought they'd have little trouble with the StL Cards (just that season) but lost in five games. Detroit has seemingly never recovered. The Tigers were a disappointing 88-74 in 2007 and then last year went 74-88, with their moneyline mark of minus-$2,917 being the third-worst in MLB. The Angels won 100 games last year (best in MLB) but lost to the Red Sox in the ALDS. LA has been in the playoff mix regularly since winning the 2002 World Series but has never gotten back to it. The Angels have had to endure the tragic death of pitcher Rick Adenhart in the season's first week but as the year progresses, everyday life will be "the order of the day" for this team. The Angels opened this three-game series with the Tigers last night, winning 4-3. Tonight's starting pitchers are Justin Verlander and Joe Saunders. Verlander was just one of many Tigers who disappointed in 2008. Verlander was an "instant success story" with the Tigers, becoming the only pitcher to throw a no-hitter, start a World Series game and be Rookie of the Year (as well as an All-Star). Of even more interest to sports bettors, the Tigers were 41-21 in his regular season starts in 2006 and 2007, going plus-$1,652 vs the moneyline. Then, in 2008, Verlander went 11-17 (4.84), as the Tigers went 13-20 in his starts, losing $1,351. That ranked as the WORST moneyline mark of any starter in ALL of MLB!. He enters this game 0-2 with a 7.88 ERA in three starts (team is 1-2). He was actually very good in his last outing (Friday at Seattle) with the exception of one inning when he allowed five of the six runs the Mariners scored, as the Tigers lost 6-3. However, one can't ignore that one bad inning. While Veralnder was a rookie-of-the-year, Saunders has made it the old-fashioned way. He was shuttled in and out of LA's rotation in 2006 and 2007, while constantly being called up from the minors and then sent down. However, he thrived in that role, going 15-8 (4.55 ERA) over those two seasons, withe Angels going 21-10 in his 31 starts. With injuries to Colon and Lackey at the beginning of last year, Saunders was given a regular spot in LA's rotation and DELIVERED! He went 17-7 with a 3.41 ERA in 31 starts, as the Angels went 23-8 (plus-$1,268) in those games, the 6th-best moneyline mark of any pitcher in MLB. Throw in his team's win in his Game 3 start of the ALDS at Fenway and the Angels went 12-4 in Saunders' home starts, as well as 12-4 in his road starts in 2009. John Lackey, Ervin Santana and Kelvim Escobar all began this season on the DL, so Saunders was actually LA's Opening Day starter. He delivered once again, beating the A's 3-0. He's 2-1 with a 2.18 ERA in three starts this year, after limiting Seattle to one run and three hits over seven innings last Thursday in a 5-1 win. Saunders is a lefty and while the Tigers dominated lefties in 2006 and followed with a second straight strong year vs them in 2007, the team's success vs left-handers has worn off. Detroit was a modest 26-22 vs lefties last year and has opened 2-2 (3.0 RPG) vs lefties in '09, including 1-2 on the road (2.7 RPG). Meanwhile, the Angels 'killed' righties in '07 (especially in Anaheim where they were 41-15, averaging just barely over six runs per game) and went 66-46 in all games vs right-handers in 2008. It's early so far in 2009 (4-5 vs righties, including 3-2 at home) but expect this lineup to hit righties well this year as well. Plus, why shouldn't they get to the slumping Verlander? What's more, last night's win by the Angels gives them 10 wins in their last 13 overall games against the Tigers. Even more to the point tonight, is that the Angels have taken 12 of their last 15 home games vs the Tigers (that's 80%!). Weekly Wipeout Winner LA Angels.
The Sixers lost six straight games before winning 111-110 at Cleveland on the regular season's final night (4/15), when the Cavs rested their starters. Philly then fell behind the Magic by 18 points in the third quarter of Game 1 of this series, only to win 100-98 on Iquodala's game-winner with 2.2 seconds remaining. Iquodala had 20-8-8 and Miller 15-7-7 to lead the way (as they have all year for Philly) but Williams had 18 off the bench (averaged 12.8 PPG this year after netting 11.5 PPG last season) and 15-year vet Donyell Marshall (averaged only 3.8 PPG in 25 games TY) had 11 points (all came in the fourth quarter), including the tying three-pointer in the final minute. Can the 76ers do it again? Probably not but the real question is can they stay within the generous pointspread? Orlando's Dwight Howard had 31 and 16 in Game 1 plus rookie guard Lee added 18 points. Lewis (15) and Turkoglu (6-5-4) each looked a little rusty, as both missed games late in the year with nagging injuries. Turkoglu has a sprained left ankle and Lewis is suffering from right knee tendinitis. Even Howard has a small problem, having had his eye scratched in Game 1. However, Howard is fine and I'm not ready to assume Lewis and Turkoglu can't play well. The Magic were 57-19 before resting some players down the stretch and I'm not ready to "buy into" Philly after just one amazing comeback, or should I say one Orlando "choke job?" 15* Orl Magic.
The Hawks ended an eight-year playoff drought last year but lost a seven-game series to Boston in the first round. The Hawks were able to beat the Celtics in all three games played in Atlanta but "never came close" in any of the four games up in Boston. With that in mind, Atlanta was determined to get home court advantage this year, for at least the first round. The Hawks did just that and in Game 1 of this series, beat the Heat 90-64! Miami's Game 1 performance was hardly indicative of the way the Heat played this season. Miami finished 42-40 during the regular season, one year after posting an NBA-worst 15-67 record. Wade (30.2-5.0-7.5) led the NBA in scoring this year but was held to 19 points. He attempted only four free throws and equaled a season high with eight turnovers. Miami shot 36.6 percent as a team and only rookie Michael Beasley (10 points / 10 rebounds) joined Wade in double digits (he made just 5-of-15 FGs). All five of Atlanta's starters scored in double digits, led by Josh Smith (23-10). Miami's three frontcourt starters (O'Neal, Haslem and Jones) combined for 20 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1 while Atlanta's three starters (Smith, Williams and Horford), combined for 47 points and 21 rebounds. However, these teams played four low-scoring games during the regular season (average point total of 167) and in Game 1 totaled only 154 points. Something tells me that while this game will be higher scoring (how can't it be?), it will likely be close. The Heat won't go 4-of-23 from three-point range again and while I like the Hawks, they are not familiar with being placed in the role of a favorite and I believe they could caught 'napping' in this one, after that Game 1 blowout. 15* Mia Heat.
The Nuggets acquired Billups for his leadership and he came through in Game 1 of this series (36 points and eight assists), leading the Nuggets to a 113-84 win. Denver shot 50.7 percent from the floor as a team, including connecting on 11-of-21 three-pointers. HC Karl also praised his team's defense but I'd have to say in was more a bad shooting performance from the Hornets, than it was Denver's 'D.' Let's see what Game 2 brings. Paul (22.8-5.5-11.0) was just 7-of-19 and West (21.0-8.5)) only 4-of-16 and the Hornets can't win without big games from those guys. However, look for New Orleans (allowed just 94.3 PPG on the year) to play much better defense in this game and let's not forget that Denver is still trying to erase the 'sting' of five straight first-round exits. I'm not sure Denver's Game 1 blowout erased all of this team's 'demons,' Billups or no Billups. 15* NO Hornets.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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