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Re: 4-25-09
ATS Lock Club
4 Lakers
4 Hornets
ATS Financial
4 Mavs
3 Heat
ATS Lock Club
4 Lakers
4 Hornets
ATS Financial
4 Mavs
3 Heat
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Re: 4-25-09
Wunderdog
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Game: Denver at New Orleans (1:05 PM Eastern)
Pick: First Half UNDER 99 -110
There is a contrast between these teams’ styles at home and on the road. Particularly in the situation that applies here as we have a top 10 offense against a top 10 defense. This should be a statement game for the Hornets, and their best statement can be made on the defensive end, where I expect them to come out playing very intensely. There is also a situation that is live for this game that shows when the total is in this range, a team off a 10+ point win that is well rested (five games or less in 14 days), has shown the first half to go UNDER to the tune of 46-17. That is 73% of the time. As a result, I will play the first-half UNDER.Comment
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Re: 4-25-09
Drew Gordon Today's Games...
1. 300,000? Hawks
2. 50,000? Royals
1. Hawks- You really think handicapping Game 3 is as easy as: "The Hawks are bad on the road, therefore the Heat will win at home." Guys, you can take all of those trends about the Hawks past road play and throw them out the window. If you know how terrible the Hawks have been on the road, then you better believe that Vegas knows this too. Consider: If Atlanta is so terrible on the road, then why are they only slight underdogs in this spot? I've told you once & I'll tell you again: Vegas is not in the business of handing out freebies!
So let's breakdown Game 2, and you'll see why a repeat performance by the Heat is unlikely. Wednesday's 108-93 wallop of the Hawks happened for three reasons: A. Dwayne Wade went bonkers, scoring 33 points on 11 of 20 shooting (which was expected after a terrible Game 1 effort). B. Joe Johnson played terrible, with just 16 points on 5 of 13 shooting. And C. The Hawks ultra-athletic frontcourt got outplayed by a Heat frontline coming off an embarassing effort in Game 1.
While we can expect D. Wade to continue to play well, two things I don't see happening again are Joe Johnson playing poorly and the Hawks frontcourt getting outplayed. When Wade played like garbage in Game 1, I told you to expect him to come out highly motivated in Game 2 and he did... I'll tell you the same thing about Joe Johnson, as the Hawks star guard will not be held down two games in a row. Also, for O'Neal, Haslem, and the rest of the Heat forwards to outplay Smith, Williams and Horford is a disgrace, because we all know the Hawks are far more talented in their frontcourt. Sorry Heat-backers, but the truth is the truth, and I highly doubt we'll see that kind of effort out of Jermaine O'Neal two games in a row.
Finally, besides Dwayne Wade's outstanding effort, the Heat won Game 2 for one other reason: 3-point shooting. Rest-assured, as someone who's followed them very closely this season, the Heat cannot & will not repeat their 15 of 27 barrage from the 3-point line tonight. Guys, we're talking about a team that shoots 35% from long range on the season, so to expect them to shoot 22 percentage points higher (57% in Game 2) again tonight is ridiculous. In fact, I'm counting on the Heat to go "3-point happy" again tonight, and when the shots stop falling, the Hawks will reassert themselves as the superior TEAM in this series. Heat may have Wade, but Hawks are MUCH better team overall. Don't believe the hype, Altanta is the play Saturday night.
Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat as your top-rated play of the day.
2. Royals- Although Davies was a little shaky early on in his last start, there's no question you give him the edge here in tonight's pitching match up. Despite the 5 walks in his last one, two of Davies' three starts this season have been quality efforts, and the fact he's posted a 2.89 ERA thus far only lends credence to the fact his turnaround last season was the for real. He lost all three starts against the Tigers last season, but look for a better outcome this time around.
It doesn't hurt that his counterpart Zach Miner is coming off an ugly ugly effort vs the White Sox, in which he allowed a whopping 8 runs in just 3 1/3 innings! True, we can all agree the cold weather has a lot to with that, but I'm not convinced that Miner is simply going to turn it around tonight. Yes, he had success against the Royals last season, but he did lose his last start against them, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings back in September.
While the Tigers continue to hit lefties well, their .265 average against righties is nothing to write home about, and they proved that by getting nowhere fast against Zach Greinke in yesterday's 6-1 loss! Of course, Greinke is a superior pitcher to Davies, but fact remains the Tigers do not hit righties particularly well. Also of note, the Royals offense should get a nice boost tonight from the return of Jose Guillen, who hasn't played since April 9th.
Bottom line, I'm looking for the Royals to build off yesterday's dominant effort by Greinke with another strong effort from Davies in this one. The Tigers have been unimpressive on the road (5-15 L20 away), while the Royals are an outstanding 9-0 in their L9 games as a home favorite! Kansas City takes care of business at Kauffman Saturday!
Take the Royals behind Davies over the Tigers and Miner in this MLB match upComment
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Re: 4-25-09
JAMIE TURSINI
Atlanta at Miami
Pick: Over 184.5
I think clearly that the oddsmakers have not caught up with this series. Game 2's 108-93 Miami win I think shows what type of scores we can expect from here on out in this series. Atlanta doesn't play any defense on the road. On average they lose 97.6 to 100.1 this season. Miami wins at home on average 100.8 to 96.6. There's too many offensive playmakers on both sides for this number to be so low. Play the over.Comment
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Re: 4-25-09
MTi Sports
Atlanta at Miami
Play: Atlanta +4
The Hawks were completely flat in game two, after their blowout win in game one. They should be ready here, while the Heat should be the team that comes out flat.Miami hot 58% from three-point range in game two, making 15-of-26. Dwyane Wade was 6-of-10 from the arc and Daquean Cook bested him, making 6-of-9 from long range off the bench.This is the kiss-of-death for the Heat. Miami is 0-9 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which they scored more than 30% of their points from the three-point line, failing to cover by an average of 13.7 ppg. More to the point, the Heat are 0-18-1 ATS when they are at home with rest off a game in which they attempted at least ten threes and made more than 45% of them. They lost each of their last 14 straight up, many times as a favorite.In addition, Miami is 0-6 ATS (-13.6 ppg) at home after a game in which they shot at least 55% from the field. Dwyane Wade, scored 33 points in game two, but he also committed five turnovers. This is relevant because the Heat are 0-8 ATS (-10.1 ppg) at home after a win on the road in which Dwyane Wade had at least 5 turnovers. Miami is also 0-6 ATS (-12.1 ppg) at home after two away games in which Udonis Haslem took fewer than 10 shots in each and 0-8 ATS (-6.9 ppg) at home after a win in which Mario Chalmers played fewer than 30 minutes.The Hawks are 5-0 ATS (+10.4 ppg) with at least a day of rest after a loss in which Josh Smith had a double-double. With the Hawks’ veteran leadership at the guard spots, they should get their home court advantage back right here.
MTi’s FORECAST: Atlanta 94 MIAMI 92Comment
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Re: 4-25-09
Robert Ferrrrringo-->Frigid cold!
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1-Unit Play. Take #951 Atlanta (-110) over Cincinnati
1.5-Unit Play. Take #964 Colorado (-120) over L.A. Dodgers
1-Unit Play. Take #966 San Diego (-130) over Pittsburgh
Today's Totals
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.5 L.A. Dodgers at Colorado
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Pittsburgh at San Diego
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 San Francisco at Arizona
2.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Washington at N.Y. Mets
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.0 N.Y. Yankees at Boston
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Seattle at L.A. Angels
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 9.5 Toronto at White Sox
1.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 10.0 Chicago Cubs at St. LouisComment
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