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Re: 4-25-09
Al
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs plus the points over Dallas.
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Hornets minus the points over Denver.
At 1:10pm our NL EAST Total of the Year is on the Washtington Nationals and New York Mets 'over' the total.
At 7:05pm, our 5* Pitching Mismatch Game of the Year is on the Chicago White Sox over the Toronto Blue Jays -
Re: 4-25-09
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Nuggets - Know what's amazing about George Karl's troupe? It's not the offensive numbers it's put up, sheesh, that's ultimately been the frustrating part of this team, because you don't know when it'll show up. Now, the intangible is not whether or not the Nuggets can outscore an opponent, it's whether or not they're going to outscore an opponent, or adjust and play defense to stifle the opposition.
All of a sudden, this is a balanced team. And trust me, I know Denver has given up triple figs in 11 of its last 16 games; but it's also won eight of those 11 contests. And when they're haven't allowed three-digit totals, the Nuggets have won eight straight now - including the first two in this series.
Thus, if Denver was at home and likely could have outran and outgunned New Orleans in a high-scoring affair, you have to wonder why it was concentrating more on defense in the Mile High City. Perhaps to get in a groove for the trip to the Big Easy?
Maybe because the defense Karl has employed has completely negated New Orleans' pick-and-roll offense Chris Paul executes. And with rumors circulating about slight dissension in the ranks, because in times of desperation the ball is being forced into Paul's hands much more, this is the perfect time to go for the jugular. New Orleans has displayed no cohesiveness.
The Nuggets can deliver a knockout punch with a win tonight. I'll take the points and look for an outright.
5 Dime Mavericks - San Antonio is finished, end of story. With the series back in Dallas, we're about to see the end of the Spurs nucleus/dynasty/roster ... whatever it is ... because at this point there are too many younger powerhouses ready to emerge, and there's still the matter of the Lakers. The Spurs have seen their glory days with this lineup, but against the Mavs, in Dallas, I just don't see it. Ginobili is out, Duncan is hurting and Parker feels the pressure to lead. And knowing how vulnerable the Spurs are right now, Dallas will come harder tonight, knowing how important it is to go up 3-1 before heading back to San Antonio. All Dallas here.
Free pick - LakersComment
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Re: 4-25-09
Larry Ness' 15* Underdog Shocker-MLB (13-2 in MLB the L7 days!)-Day
My 15* Underdog Shocker is on the Cin Reds at 1:10 ET. The Braves opened the 2009 season 5-1 but then lost five straight from 4/14 through 4/18. They won 11-1 last Sunday at Pittsburgh (to avoid a three-game sweep) but are 2-2 this week (so far), which gives them just THREE wins in their last 10 games. Except for that 11-run outburst last Sunday, the Braves have scored just 17 runs in their other nine games in their current 10-game slide of 3-7. In fairness, injuries have played a part in the team's offensive struggles, as Yunel Escobar, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann have all missed time. More bad news came yesterday, as Garrett Anderson was placed on the DL with a strained quad. Catcher Brian McCann may soon join him, as he continues to suffer from blurred vision in his right eye and he may have to undergo a second Lasik surgery. The Reds played 10 road games over 11 days (4/13-4/23) and must be happy to get back home, although last night's 4-3 loss to the Braves was not the best way to open the series. However, Cincy's 9-7 start cannot be disappointing for a team which was 74-88 last year. Bronson Arroyo has started three times in 2009 and while he's been far from dominating, he's 3-0 (4.19 ERA). He won a career-high 15 games last season, despite opponents hitting .281 against him. Only Colorado's Aaron Cook won as many games with a higher opponents' batting average. Through three starts this season, opponents are batting .296 vs Arroyo but he had his longest outing of '09 on Monday (seven innings) and has been improving with each start. Lowe was Atlanta's big free agent sign?e during the off-season. Lowe was brilliant at Philadelphia in the MLB '09 opener (April 5), going eight inning vs the defending champs, allowing just two hits and no runs. However, his second start was limited to three innings due to weather (game was resumed and the Braves won 6-5 in 10 innings). He's not been sharp in his last two starts, allowing 14 hits and seven ERs over 11 innings (5.73 ERA), with the Braves losing both games. I believe this guy is overrated. Yes, he won 21 games for the Red Sox in 2002 and then in 2004, famously claimed the distinction of winning the series-clinching victory in three straight postseason series for the Red Sox. That got him a HUGE four-year deal with the Dodgers. Everyone loves to "talk this guy up" but here's the cold, hard facts. In his four years with LA he went 54-48 (.529) with a 3.59 ERA. Throw in some postseason starts and in 139 games, LA was 72-67 in all of his outings, which is a winning percentage of .518. Big deal! I'm jumping 'all over' the Reds here as an underdog and why not? A look back to last year reveals that the Braves went an abysmal 3-16 in road day games vs right-handed starters last season (minus-$1,425), averaging only 4.1 RPG. In two tries in '09 in road day games vs righties, the Braves are 0-2. That's a "go-against" run of 18-3 or 85.7%. That's good enough for me. Underdog Shocker 15* Cin Reds.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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Re: 4-25-09
Larry Ness' 15* Pitching Mismatch (13-2 the L7 days in MLB!)
My 15* Pitching Mismatch is on the Fla Marlins at 7:10 ET. The Marlins opened 11-1 this year but then at the end of a nine-game road trip, in which the team had won the first six games, were swept at Pittsburgh. However, the Pirates look greatly improved this year (especially their pitching staff), so there wasn't much of a concern. The Marlins can't be happy though, about the result of last night's contest with the defending champs, in the opener of a three-game weekend series with the Phillies. Josh Johnson pitched seven scoreless innings (allowing just three hits) and the Marlins entered the ninth with a 3-0 lead. Losing streak over! However, Shane Victorino's two-out grand slam highlighted a seven-run rally against Florida closer, Matt Lindstrom. Chris Volstad (2-0, 2.76), one of three Florida starters with sub-3.00 ERAs this year, will get the start on Saturday. Volstad was superb in his first two starts of '09 (two ERs in 12 innings) but he wasn't as sharp at Washington last Sunday. He allowed three runs, six hits and lasted just 4.1 innings, leaving early mostly because he had thrown too many pitches. However, the Marlins would eventually win 7-4, making them a perfect 3-0 in Volstad's starts this year. He went 6-4 with a 2.88 ERA as a rookie in 2008, as Florida went 8-6 in his 14 starts. He faced the Phillies three times last season, posting an impressive 1.93 ERA (he was 1-1 and the team 2-1). Don't expect him to back down here from the defending champs. Last night's dramatic ninth-inning win leaves the Phillies just 7-8 to open '09 and most of the defending champs woes have revolved around the pitching staff. The Phillies will take a 6.09 team ERA into tonight's game, with Chan Ho Park getting the start. Phillies' starters own a ML-worst 6.98 ERA. Park narrowly edged JA Happ in a tight spring training competition for the Phillies' No. 5 starter spot. He has struggled in both of his starts this year (8.68 ERA), although late comebacks have kept him from beinga desrving 0-2 (he's got two no decisions). Park allowed four runs on eight hits in five innings this past Sunday, before Happ tossed three scoreless innings of relief. If Park falters here, he may lose his spot in the rotation. It's been a long time since Park was an effective pitcher (he won 75 games for the Dodgers in five-year span from 1997-2001). He's been a bust ever since signing a big free agent deal with Texas in 2002 and one wonders how he's even in "the bigs" these days. Park is 0-1 with a 10.66 ERA in his last three starts against Florida (dating to June 2005) and is a washed-up veteran on his way out, while Volstad is an up and coming pitching star. This is the very definition of a pitching mismatch. Pitching Mismatch 15* Fla Marlins.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Las Vegas Insider-MLB (6-0 to open MLB '09)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Chi White Sox at 7:05 ET. I mentioned in my Red Sox/NYY write-up yesterday that " Both teams enter this game 9-6 and both are looking up at the 12-5 Blue Jays, who have won all five of their series to open MLB '09. Yankee and Red Sox fans should take note, as the last time a team did that, the 2001 Seattle Mariners went on to match the single-season record of 116 wins." Well, Toronto opened a three-game series at Chicago Friday night with a 14-0 win, as the Jays set a season high for runs and hits (21). Toronto now has 13 wins (most in MLB) and an AL-best .302 average (Cards are also at .302). The White Sox fell to 8-8 on the year with the loss but expect them to bounce back quickly. The Blue Jays called up lefty Brian Burres on Friday. He will start in place of the injured Ricky Romero, who was off to a 2-0 start with a 1.71 ERA. Burres will be quite a "drop-off!." Burres made 68 appearances (39 starts) for the Orioles in 2007 and 2008, going 13-18 with an ERA of 6.00. Baltimore went 15-24 in those 39 starts. The Blue Jays acquired the 28-year-old left-hander off waivers in February from the Orioles and sent him to Las Vegas following seven spring training games. How has he been doing in Triple A? Try 0-2 with a 6.97 ERA! He'll face a Chicago team which did well vs lefties at home last year, going 17-9, including 13-6 in night games (Chicago's 1-1 at home vs lefties in 2009). Starting for the White Sox is also a lefty, Mark Buehrle. That's very good news for Chicago. Buehrle joined the team in 2000, making 28 appearances but just three starts. He became a regular part of the rotation in 2001 and over the next eight seasons went 118-86 with a 3.78 ERA. That's an average of just under 15 wins each year. He's always been a much better home pitcher than road pitcher, as from 2001-08, the White Sox are 95-47 (.669) in his home starts and 60-67 (.472) in his road starts. That home/away dichotomy was much greater last year, as Chicago was 14-3 (2.65 ERA) in his home starts but just 4-14 (5.14 ERA) in his road starts. Buehrle is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA this year in three starts (Chicago is 3-0, including 2-0 at home). The Jays were at their worst last year vs left-handed starters in road night games, going 5-12 (3.1 RPG). This year's team has faced just two lefties on the road at night and has gone 1-1. However, coming off a 21-hit, 14-run game is never easy. Putting back-to-back performances like that is very difficult and the task is made even harder vs a quality pitcher like Buehrle. The White Sox are 16-3 (84.2%) in Buehrle's 19 home starts since the beginning of last year plus get to go against Brian Burress. While the Blue Jays are "on a roll," the play tonight is on Chicago. Las Vegas Insider Chi White Sox.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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