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Brandon Lang Sunday
15 Dime Sixers
5 Dime Cavaliers
15 Dime Sixers
5 Dime Cavaliers
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Re: 4-26-09
Larry Ness
25* Play
The Pistons Detroit have advanced to at the Eastern Conference finals the last six NBA seasons, the longest such streak in the NBA since the Lakers made eight consecutive Western Conference finals from 1981-82 through 1988-89. However, this year's version of the Pistons entered the 2009 postseason as the lone team among 16 the playoff participants with a losing record (39-43). Detroit barely claimed the East's No. 8 seed, which meant an opening round series with the 66-16 Cavs, owners of the NBA's best record in 2008-09. Three games later, the Pistons are on the verge of being swept out of the playoffs. Detroit scored 84 and 82 points in the two games in Cleveland, shooting 46.2 and 39.5 percent, respectively. Then in an 'ugly' Game 3, the team's shooting percentage fell to 38.0 percent, as the Pistons lost 79-68. Am I writing Detroit's 'obituary?' The Cavs have won and covered the first three games of this series but have seen their offensive production drop as the series has progressed. Cleveland shot 52.9 percent in Game 1 (scored 102 points), then 42.4 percent in Game 2 (94 points) and 41.2 percent in Game 3 (79 points). LeBron spent a good portion of Game 3 complaining to the officials about Detroit's rough play. The Piston outscored the Cvs 16-9 in the third quarter but LeBron quit complaining and scored 11 of his 25 points in the fourth quarter, helping spark the Cavs on an 18-2 run. Most everyone thinks the Pistons are 'dead' and that may be true. However, there is no more pressure on them, as they are NOT coming back from down 0-3. Don't expect any of their "tough-guy" tactics in this game and I expect a fairly high scoring game. Expect vets like Hamilton, Prince and Wallace (as well as McDyess), to play efficiently. As for the Cavs, they were the league's second-best three-pointing shooting team during the regular season (39.3 percent) but they've been abysmal from beyond the arc in all three games, going 15-of-55 (27.3 percent). That should change here. The Cavs will want to close this series out in four games and let's not forget that they were 27-14 on the road during the regular season (only the 29-12 Lakers were better) and averaged 100.3 during teh 820-game regular season. Watch for the Cavs to surpass the 100-point markin thsi one and for this game to soar "two TDs or more" over the total. 1st Round Total of the YearComment
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Re: 4-26-09
Dr. Bob
Sunday NBA Analysis
CHICAGO (-3) over Boston
Boston looked great in game 3 and now lead this series 2 games to 1, but Chicago applies to a decent 94-54-3 ATS bounce-back situation and my ratings, using Boston’s games without Kevin Garnett, favor the Bulls by 3 ½ points. I’ll lean with Chicago. My math model also projects 202 total points, so I’ll lean over 200 points or less.
DETROIT (+8 ½) over Cleveland
Cleveland played poorly in game 3 as expected and still won the game by 11 points against a lifeless Pistons team that couldn’t take advantage of a good situation. Teams down 3 games to none in a playoff series are just 14-25 ATS overall, but home underdogs in that role are 12-11 ATS and the line went from 5 ½ points in game 3 to 8 ½ points today. My ratings favor Cleveland by 5 points, so the only question with this game is how much pride the Pistons have. I’ll lean with Detroit based on the huge line swing from game 3 to game 4.
Orlando (-4) over PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia has covered the spread in all 3 games in this series, but the Magic should play their best game today after falling behind in the series with a 94-96 game 3 loss. Orlando is 41-17 ATS after a loss and 35-11 ATS in revenge games the last two seasons and the Magic apply to a very good 80-35-2 ATS playoff situation. The only problem is that the line has been over-adjusted for the positive situation and my ratings favor Orlando by just 2 ½ points. The Magic are still the side to be on and I’ll consider Orlando a Strong Opinion at -4 or -3 ½ points (a lean at -4 ½) and I’d take the Magic in a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 or less.
Portland at HOUSTON (-4 ½)
There are situations favoring both sides in this game (a general situation favoring Portland and a game 4 situation favoring Houston) and my ratings favor the Rockets by 4 ½ points with a total of 182 points. So, I have no opinion on this game.Comment
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Re: 4-26-09
BURNS NBA
Basketball (NBA)
PISTONS
Game: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Detroit Pistons Game Time: 4/26/2009 3:30:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Pistons Reason: I'm taking the points with DETROIT. It's true that the Cavaliers have dominated this series. It's also true that (barring an act of God) they're going to win the series. That said, in my opinion, this afternoon's line is far too high. Despite not playing well, the Pistons have had a shot at covering in all three games. In Friday's game, they were tied, heading into the third quarter. Now, there's absolutely no pressure and the line is several points higher than it was for that game. Cleveland coach Mike Brown knows the Pistons aren't just going to roll over, noting: "They've got a lot of guys who have won NBA championships on that team. They're not going to go away easily. They have a lot of pride." The Pistons are a profitable 27-17 ATS the last 44 times that they were attempting to avenge an earlier home loss. That includes a 11-6 ATS mark in that role this season. Look for them to show some pride as they give the Cavs all they can handle for the full four quarters with an excellent shot at extending the series. *Main Event - Top Central Division play
OVER rockets/blazers
Game: Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets Game Time: 4/26/2009 9:05:00 PM Prediction: over Reason: I'm playing on Houston and Portland to finish OVER the total. Every game of a series has a different "personality" and is played out differently. If something works (or doesn't work) one game, coaches and players try to make adjustments and we often see a different result the next game. Yet, it's always been my opinion that the betting public typically likes to focus too much on what happened in the most recent game. After back to back high-scoring games at Portland, the majority of the betting public expected another shootout for Game 3 at Houston. That didn't happen though, as the teams ended up in a "defensive battle." While I successfully played on the 'under' in Game 3, I believe that the betting public has over-reacted to that result and that this evening's o/u number is now too low. Even with the Game 3 result, Portland road games are averaging 189.3 points for the season. Houston home games are averaging 190.4. Prior to Game 3, six straight meetings between these teams had produced greater than 180 combined points. The Blazers, who average better than 99 points per game, don't get held down, as they did in Game 3, that often. However, when they do, they typically bounce back with a higher-scoring game the next time out. This season, they've seen the OVER go 6-3 when coming off a game in which they scored 85 or fewer points. Note that even with Friday's result, they've also still seen the OVER go 16-6 the last 22 times that they faced a team with a winning record. The Rockets played great defense last game, limiting Portland to 83 points. They held the Blazers to just 81 in the series opener though and Portland came back and dropped 107 on them in Game 2. Including that result, the OVER is a profitable 12-7-1 the last 20 times that the Rockets had held their previous opponent to 85 points or less. Look for those numbers to improve as this one proves higher-scoring than most are expecting. *Blue Chip
BULLS
Game: Boston Celtics vs. Chicago Bulls Game Time: 4/26/2009 1:00:00 PM Prediction: Chicago Bulls Reason: I'm laying the points with CHICAGO. With a convincing double-digit victory in Game 3, the Celtics showed that they are still capable of dominating. That will have many jumping back on the Boston bandwagon. One big win doesn't fix all the Celts' problems though. Garnett remains out, as does Powe. Rondo will play but there's a chance that he may not be 100%. Additionally, there's the distraction of the death threats against Tony Allen. Even with the Game 3 win, the defending champs are still just 16-21 ATS their last 37 games. During the same stretch, the Bulls are 21-14-2 ATS. The Bulls are also 8-4 ATS this season when coming off a SU loss, when listed as favorites. Additionally, they're a profitable 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. Look for the Bulls, 14-3 their last 17 home games, to bounce back in a big way, evening up the series and covering the small number along the way. *AnnihilatorComment
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Re: 4-26-09
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
UNDER yankees/red sox
Game: New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Game Time: 4/26/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on the Yankees and Red Sox to finish UNDER the total. After Friday's opener slipped below the total, these teams were involved in a 16-11 "slugfest" yesterday. I expect a much lower-scoring contest this evening. Pettitte has gotten off to a great start for the Yankees and is 2-0 with a stellar 2.53 ERA and 0.938 WHIP. He's averaging better than seven innings per start and ALL three of his games have finished below the total. Those games averaged less than seven combined runs each, with scores of 4-1, 4-3 and 5-3. Its also worth noting that Pettitte is a solid 6-2 with a 3.53 ERA in 15 career games at Fenway. In his last start here, he allowed just one earned run through six complete innings. Justin Masterson goes for the Red Sox. He's only made one start against the Yankees, allowing only two runs through six complete innings. That game finished with a score of 2-1. Masterson has made one start so far this season and he allowed just four hits and one run (1.69 ERA, 1.126 WHIP) in 5 1/3 innings. Note that he's supported by a Boston bullpen which has a 1.98 ERA at home so far this season. Both teams have a long history of bouncing back with a low-scoring game, after allowing their opponent to reach double-digits in runs. Excluding 'pushes,' the Yankees have seen the UNDER go 93-74 the last 167 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game. That includes a 15-10 mark the last few seasons. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have seen the UNDER go 86-67 the last 153 times that they allowed 10 or more runs in their previous game, including a profitable 14-8 mark their last 22 in that situation. Look for those numbers to improve as this evening's contest proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *AL East TOM
TIGERS
Game: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals Game Time: 4/26/2009 2:10:00 PM Prediction: Detroit Tigers Reason: I'm laying the price with DETROIT. After KC easily won (6-1) Friday's opener, the Tigers returned the favor by pounding the Royals by a score of 9-1 yesterday. I expect the Tigers to enjoy a significant advantage on the mound this afternoon and I look for them to close out the series with another victory. Galarraga goes for the Tigers and he was their best pitcher last season. He's been "doing it again" this year as he's already off to a 2-0 start with an outstanding 1.96 ERA. When I won with Galarraga (15-2 win over Texas) a couple of weeks ago, I noted that he had been excellent in his daytime starts last season. Last year, Galarraga was 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA when pitching during the afternoon. This year, he's already 2-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his two daytime starts - opposing hitters are batting just .191 in those games. It's also worth noting that Galarraga has an excellent 1.93 ERA (0.929 WHIP) in two starts vs. the Royals. The Tigers won those two games by a combined score of 11-3. While Galarraga has a ton of potential, KC's Sidney Ponson is on the downside of a very mediocre (90-108, 4.96 ERA) career. In fact, when looking at his stats, its remarkable that he's still even in the majors. His ERA's for the last five seasons are as follows: 5.30, 6.21, 6.25, 6.93 and 5.04. This year, he's off to an 0-2 (Royals are 0-3) start with a terrible 7.04 ERA. He's also got an ugly 6.62 ERA against the Tigers. In his last two starts against them, he's allowed 13 runs (11 earned) in just seven innings. While the teams bring equal records into this afternoon's game, the Tigers have been much better in "day" games. Look for the youngster to get the better of veteran and for the Tigers to close out the series with another convincing victory. *Personal FavoriteComment
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Re: 4-26-09
BURNS NHL
Hockey (NHL)
CAROLINA
Game: New Jersey Devils vs. Carolina Hurricanes Game Time: 4/26/2009 7:35:00 PM Prediction: Carolina Hurricanes Reason: I'm laying the price with CAROLINA. I won with the Devils when these teams played Game 5 on Thursday. Both goalies were excellent but Brodeur was slightly better and the Devils won by a score of 1-0. Today's game is at Carolina though, where the Hurricanes have been much better all season. Note that the Canes were 26-14-1 (26-15 vs. ML) at home this season while the Devils were 23-15-3 (23-18 vs. ml) on the road. Down 3-2, naturally, this is a "must win" game for the Canes. They've done a great job at bouncing back all series and I expect them to do so again this evening. After the Devils won Game 1, the Canes bounced back and won Game 2. After the Devils won Game 3, the Canes bounced back and grabbed Game 4. Including that result, they're 4-1 the last five times that they hosted the Devils. Meanwhile, the Devils are now just 1-4 the last five times that they were leading in a playoff series. The Canes are 65-49 (+10.5) the past few seasons when facing a team which defeated them in their previous meeting. During that stretch, they've gone 25-19 (Devils were 26-24, -7.2) when playing with two day's rest in between games. Look for them to deliver a huge effort here as they improve on those stats and force a seventh and deciding game. *Eastern Conf. GOWComment
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Re: 4-26-09
Larry Ness' Club-70 Play-MLB (24-8 or 75% situation since 2008)
My 15* Club-70 Play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. The Angels won a ML-best 100 games last year, while the Mariners fell to 61-101 in 2008, after going 88-74 in 2007. However, while the Angels have struggled in the early going of 2009 at 6-11 (dealing with the tragic death of young pitcher Rick Adenhart, hasn't helped), the Mariners have experienced a re-birth under new manager Don Wakamatsu. After wins in the first two games of this three-game series in Anaheim, Seattle is 12-6, just one-half game behind Toronto for the AL's best record. The Mariners won only 26 games away from home last year but have now won six straight road games, giving them a 7-2 record away from Seattle to open the new season. The starters this afternoon will be the same ones who took the mound back on April 15, when the Mariners beat the Angels 11-3 in Seattle. Jarrod Washburn (former Angel) goes for Seattle and Jered Weaver will pitch for the Angels. Washburn, like his team, is experiencing a renaissance so far in 2009. Entering this year, his 18-6 (3.15) season of 2002 (Angels won World Series that year) had long been forgotten, as these last three years in Seattle have been a 'nightmare.' Washburn was 23-43 (4.55), with the Mariners going 37-52 in his 89 starts from 2006-08. However, he comes into this series finale 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in three 2009 starts, searching for his first 4-0 start since his rookie season of 1998. Speaking of rookie seasons, Jered Weaver was a sensation in his rookie campaign of 2006, going 11-2 with a 2.56 ERA in 19 starts (team was 14-5). However, he's never quite been the same since. He went 13-7 in 28 starts in 2007 but his ERA climbed to 3.91 that season, while the team finished a more modest 16-12 in his 28 starts. His ERA rose again last year (to 4.33), as Weaver was 11-10 in 30 starts (LA was 15-15). He's 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA to open 2009 but pitched poorly in that April 15 game in Seattle, allowing 10 hits and four ERs in just five innings. However, I'm siding with the Angels in this one for a number of reasons. First of all, while the Mariners are off to an impressive start, they are NOT a better team than the Angels and LA should be able to regroup and avoid the home sweep. Also, let's NOT forget how poorly Washburn's pitched these last three years and let's not be too quick to conclude that he's turned into Sandy Koufax, after just three 2009 starts. I'll close with a focus on some key numbers. The Angels were superb vs left-handed starters in 2008, going 34-16 overall. In home day games against lefties, the Angels were a perfect 6-0 last year, averaging 7.0 RPG (this will be their first such situation this year). As for the Mariners, they were awful vs right-handers last year (40-70), a mark which included a poor 7-18 record in away day games, while scoring just 3.3 RPG. Yes, the Mariners look different early on in 2009 but let me note that they've faced just one right-hander this year in a day game. The Mariners won that game but only 1-0. Going back to the beginning of last year, the Angels are 6-0 vs left-handed starters in home day games, while going against the Mariners vs right-handed starters in road day games leaves one 18-8 (in that same time frame). That's a combined 24-8 situation, or 75.0%. Club-70 Play 15* LA Angels.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' Div Situational Mismatch of the Month (5-0 TY with Situational Mismatch plays)
My 15* NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month is on the Ari D'backs at 4:10 ET. The Giants and D'backs played last weekend in San Francisco, with the Giants taking two of the three games. All three games ended in 2-0 scores. That shouldn't come as too much of a surprise, as the Giants are batting .242 (ranks 26th) and the D'backs .223 (dead-last at 30th in all of MLB). The Giants were the lowest scoring team in MLB coming into this weekend's three-game set in Chase Field but with 5-1 and 5-3 wins, the Giants have edged past the D'backs in that category, averaging a modest 3.50 RPG to the D'backs' average of 3.41 per. It should also be noted that San Fran entered this series 0-6 on the road in 2009 but this afternoon, are on the verge of a road sweep. What's going on here? Matt Cain (2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts / team is 2-1) looks to improve to 3-0 for the first time in his short career. Most should know Cain's history. He went 13-12 with a 4.15 ERA as a rookie in 2006, as the Giants went 16-15 in his 31 starts. He's a pitcher with good stuff but over the last two seasons, despite ERAs of 3.65 (in 2007) and 3.76 (in 2008), he's gone 7-16 and 8-14. However, that's only PART of the story. His real problem has been the Giants just rarely seem to win when he takes the mound. Cain finished dead-last among all MLB pitchers in 2007 vs the moneyline, as the Giants were an abysmal 9-23 (minus-$1,803) in his starts two seasons ago. The Giants "improved" to 14-20 (minus-$386) in his 2008 starts but that's still a two-year mark of 15-30 and minus-$2,189, which is pretty 'ugly.' Cain has pitched well in the early going of 2009 but I still need to be convinced that the Giants can win on a regular basis with him on the mound. As mentioned earlier, he's looking to start 3-0 for the first time in his career (this is his fourth start of '09) and it should be noted that it took him 14 starts last season to win his third game! Arizona began the season with a strong one-two punch at the top of its rotation with Webb and Haren but Webb quickly went on the DL. The D'backs are hoping that Garland, a free agent, will help solidify and give some depth to a starting rotation that fell apart at the end of last season. Garland was a fairly non-descript starter with the White Sox in his first five seasons but went 18-10 (3.50) when Chicago captured the World Series title in 2006 and followed in 2006 by going 18-7 (4.51). He fell out of favor in Chicago after going 10-13 in 2007 and signed with the Angels last year, going 14-8 with a 4.90 ERA. His high ERA could be a concern but let's note that these last four seasons, Garland's teams are 75-55 in his 130 starts (includes the postseason), after the Angels went 20-12 in his 32 starts last year. All of Garland's starts have come at Chase Field to begin 2009 (this is his fourth) and he's off to a 2-1 start, although his ERA is an unimpressive 5.71. However, Garland pitched well in defeatung the Rockies this past Monday, allowing just two runs (only one was earned) on six hits over 6.2 innings. He walked two and had five strikeouts. Garland is not dominating but as I've already pointed out, unlike with Cain, his teams have a habit of winning when he's on the mound. The 6-11 D'backs don't look in the early going as if they are going to challenge the Dodgers in the NL West but again, it's early. As for the 8-8 Giants, they've lost 90 and 91 games these last two seasons, going a combined 67-95 (.414) on the road. The situation hardly favors them to complete a road sweep of the D'backs, who these last two seasons, have gone 98-64 (.605) in Chase Field. Expect the "hard-luck" Cain to be on the wrong end of the scoreboard" once again. NL West Situational Mismatch of the Month 15* Ari D'backs.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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