4-27-09

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

igz1 sports

Monday Card
MLB
4* St Louis (Pineiro) +135
3* Over 11 (+100) Texas vs Baltimore
3* Over 9 (-110) NY Yankess vs Detroit

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

charlie
nba. denver @ new orleans over 193 & atlanta+4' (500*).
nba. denver+2' (30*)
nba. utah+11 (20*)
nba. atlanta @ miami under 186 (20*)
nba. utah @ lakers over 211(10*)
mlb. twins-120 (10*) free play

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Kelso

10 units Heat
4 units Hornets
3 units Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Bob Balfe

Atlanta Hawks +5

Reds -110 over Astros
Cueto/Oswalt

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

ATS Financial
3 Heat

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Anthony Redd Monday's Card


15 Dime Heat (1st Half)

15 Dime Nuggets (1st Half)

15 Dime Nuggets

5 Dime Heat

5 Dime Jazz

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Chris Jordan Top Baseball Winner ...


400? PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES RUN LINE (LIST Blanton and Martis) - This is a perfect spot for Joe Blanton to earn his first win of the season, as he’ll be out for revenge against the Nationals and Shairon Martis from an April 16 loss in Washington. The Phillies are on a little run right now, having won three straight and seemingly on the right track with their offense. They enter the week, and this series, after sweeping NL East-leading Florida and has now won five of seven. Charlie Manuel’s boys have won 13 of the last 18 meetings with the Nationals, so that adds to the numbers on our side tonight. Fact is, it was going to take some time for the Phils to shake the rust off, and this is where they’re going to surge. This is the perfect series, as the Nats are sitting in the cellar of the NL East, and are the worst team in the majors right now. Lay the run line here, as the Phils win this one big.

100? DENVER NUGGETS - We’re taking the points with the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference. Denver won the opening two games in blowout fashion at home, and though Game 3 slipped by the wayside, this is still a Hornets team that is still hurting and that is still lacking depth. Tonight we’re going to see the better team emerge, as it will be much quicker and much sharper with its transition defense. Because the Hornets made a concerted effort to run more and to push the ball more in Game 3, coach George Karl will make the right adjustments and will probably count on his veterans much more tonight, rather than expanding the lineup, in order to go back to Denver up 3 games to 1. Take the dog here.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Trace Adams

1000* - Denver Nuggets,

500* - St. Louis w/Pineiro over Jurrjens


All I needed to see for my selection on the Nuggets tonight was shown to me at the end of Game Three. Yes, the Hornets survived, but the fact they were up 11 with 3 minutes to go, and only won by 2, tells me the Nuggets are the play tonight.

Denver will be ready to take it to New Orleans in this one, and head back home with the commanding lead. Prior to Saturday's loss, the Nuggets had won 3 in a row, and 4 of 5 series meetings straight up.

The Nuggets are on a 4 game series cover streak, and have covered in 5 of the last 6 series meetings.

I just think this is Denver's year, and tonight they take it on New Olrleans hardwood.

The fact we are getting a basket or so, only makes it better.

Take the Nuggets plus the points.

1000? - Denver Nuggets

In baseball, I will back the Cards in the underdog role.

St. Louis did lose yesterday to the Cubs, but they did wind up taking 2 of 3 off their division rival, and they have still won 5 of their last 6.

Redbirds starter Joel Pineiro may sport an over 4 ERA, but he is 3-0 for the year. He will match pitches with Jair Jurrjens who sports a 1.42 season ERA, but in his lone home start, Jurrjens allowed 3 runs in just 5 innings of work.

The Cards went 3-1 at Turner Field last season, and were 5-2 overall versus the Braves in the season series.

I am taking St. Louis in the series opener.

500? - St. Louis w/Pineiro over Jurrjens

??Note: Both listed pitchers must start, or no action on the play!??

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Drew Gordon Today's Games...

1. 100,000? Hawks
2. 100,000? Rays
3. 100,000? Jazz

1. Hawks- Say what you will about this Hawks team, and their road play, which has been atrocious all season... But they simply cannot afford to come out flat liek they did in Game 3 tonight. They scored 12 points in the first quarter, and 17 points in the second quarter, for a grand total of 29 first half points, in one of the more embarassing first half efforts I've seen in a long time.

So that begs the question: Why if the Hawks lost by so much in Game 3, didn't the oddsmakers adjust the line to show that in Game 4? Even with a majority of the public on the Heat tonight, the line has remained at or very close (in some places) to the line in Game 3. This immediately tells me that this game will be a hell of a lot more competitive than Saturday's debacle.

How do they do it? Well, first off, the Hawks frontcourt simply cannot allow a one-legged Jermaine O'Neal to average 20 points and 8 boards like he has over the L2 games (both heat wins and covers not surprisingly). They have the athleticism & size to match up with the Heat, but both Horford and Smith sure picked the wrong time to disappear! Look for them to get back to business tonight, as they've both gotten clearly outplayed by their counterparts up until now.

And then there's the backcourt. Most expected teh Hawks Joe Johnson to play better in Game 3... Obviously he didn't. Well, that being said, I still believe he'll break out of his slump, and this is the game he's going to do it. Its not like he's being "locked down," but rather he's just missing open shots, and eventually that will change. Bibby also got outplayed by Chalamers, which is unexcusable when you consider Chalmers is a rookie playing in his first postseason series. Look for Bibby to step it up against the rook tonight.

Bottom line, I know its hard to back a Hawks team that has been garbage on the road, coming off an embarasing blowout loss in Game 3. BUT, underestimate this Atlanta team at your own loss, as Miami has been known to lose focus (they're young, and Wade's penchant for turnovers doens't help), and if they think the Hawks are going to go down easy they're in for a BIG surprise tonight. In the end, the Heat may still win this contest, but we'll see a much better effort from the Hawks in Game 4, and they'll reward their backers with the cash because of it!

Take the Hawks plus the points over the Heat in Game 4 of this Eastern Conference Playoffs match up.

2. Rays- Three words: Fade Scott Baker. The Twins righty obviously hasn't fully recovered from his shoulder issues early on, as he got killed in the Spring, and that's continued at an alarming pace in the regular season. Baker is 0-2 with a laughable 12.46 ERA, surrendering a whopping 12 runs on 15 hits over just 8 2/3 innings! True, he faced to hot offenses back-to-back in the Blue Jays and Red Sox, but having watched him pitch, I wouldn't touch this guy with a 10-foot pole right now.

On the flip side, Jeff Niemann seems to be getting a better grasp, coming off a nice win over the Mariners in his last one. Again, just looking at the boxscore, and it would appear that Niemann had an average outing, but fact remains, he was perfect through 4 innings, and looked damn good doing it. I expect he'll build off that effort tonight against a good, but not great Twins offense (4.4 runs per game at home against righties thus far).

Situatioanally, the Rays come into this game having just lost two straight against the A's, and will be looking for the bounce back agaisnt the struggling Baker in this one. Not only that, but the Twins 'pen has been a disaster, posting an ugly 6.10 ERA on the season, as compared to the Rays 4.44 ERA (2.78 ERA over L3 games). That gives the Rays a strong edge, especially considering Baker has yet to go more than 5 innings!

Bottom line, repeat after me: Fade Scott Baker until he proves otherwise! We saw plenty of good from the Twins righty last season, but until he gets his head on straight, there's no question, the Rays are the play here. The fact Jeff Niemann showed some flashes of why he was the 4th pick overall in 2006 against the M's in his last, only stregnthens my argument!

Take the Rays behind Niemann over the Twins and Baker in this MLB match up.

3. Jazz- Let's make something clear: The Jazz are not the Pistons. I know plenty of people just finshed watching the Cavaliers destory the disinterested Pistons on Sunday, and are clamoring to jump aboard the Lakers bandwagon in this one. Be forewarned, the Jazz may not be as talented as the Lakers, but they're hardly throwing up the white flag like Detroit did yesterday. Read on...

We knew after the Jazz's Game 3 win, that the Lakers and especially Kobe were going to come out FIRED up in Game 4, and that's exactly what happened. Kobe dropped 38 points on 16 of 24 shooting and single handedly guided the Lakers to another impressive double-digit win. However, several things are VERY different about tonight's match up.

For one, its the Jazz who are the more motivated team tonight. Sure, coming off a Game 3 win, it was not surprising they came out flat in Game 4. Down 3-1 in the Best-of-Seven series, the Jazz are obviously now in a "win or go home" situation, which is the mind-set you want against this Lakers team. With two games after this one to recover if they lose, I doubt the Lakers will show the same kind of fire they did Saturday.

Also, another huge factor to consider is Memhet Okur, who's key to this Utah offense. He played only 13 minutes in Game 4, and contributed nothing in the process, but it was important for him to get on the floor and shake off some rust. Look for more minutes and more production from the Jazz's sharp shootin center, as he's the key to spreading this Lakers defense out, and opening up the lanes for Deron Williams. Other than Korver or Williams, the Jazz do not have another true 3-point threat than Okur, and they desperately need him to get at least contribute in Game 5.

Bottom line, its clear the Lakers will almost certainly win this game, but covering the spread is another issue entirely. Too many bettors are lumping the Pistons and the Jazz in the same sentence, when these two teams couldn't be more different. Will the Jazz advance? No. But will they lay down like dogs (like the Pistons did)? Absolutely not. Play on the Jazz to keep this one within the number!

Take the Jazz plus the points over the LA Lakers in Game 5 of this Western Conference Playoffs series.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Jeff Benton

Monday's action ...

10 Dime: LAKERS (minus the points vs. Jazz in the FIRST HALF) ... NOTE: This is a FIRST-HALF play only!

5 Dime: NUGGETS (plus the points vs. Hornets)





Lakers (FIRST HALF ONLY)

This much I know: The L.A. Lakers are ending Utah’s season and moving on to the second round tonight. And they will do so by pouncing on the Jazz early and killing any thought they might have of pulling off a miracle. The one thing I don’t know if is if the Lakers will sustain their killer instinct for a full 48 minutes and keep Utah from getting a backdoor cover of this massive pointspread. That’s why we’re playing the Lakers in the first half, to take out any possibility of getting screwed in the final four minutes of what almost certainly will be garbage time.

See, one thing L.A. has been able to do effectively in its three victories over Utah in this series – particularly the two at home – is build big halftime leads. The problem, at least prior to the Game 4 win in Utah, was the Lakers’ inability to stay focused in the third and fourth quarters. In Game 1 in Los Angeles, the Lakers led 62-40 at halftime, but got outscored 33-24 in the third quarter and only won by 13. Then in Game 2, the Lakers built up a 20-point lead late the first half, had a 66-55 advantage at the break, but only won by 10. Finally, after a poor all-around game in Game 3 in Utah, the Lakers used a big second quarter to take a seven-point halftime lead and cruised 108-94.

That means the Lakers have covered in the first half in three of four games in this series – and did so easily all three times. And in the two wins at home, L.A.’s lead at halftime was bigger than it was at the end of the game. Also, look at the Lakers’ point totals in their three first-half spread-covers in this series: 62, 66 and 60 points. Simply put, there’s no such thing as a slow start for Kobe and his boys, and tonight, back at home in front of a raucous crowd, is going to be no exception.

Bottom line: While history would indicate that L.A. will cover the inflated double-digit spread tonight – the Lakers have won 11 straight at home against the Jazz and cashed in nine of those contests, and the home team is 15-6-1 ATS in this rivalry over the past 22 meetings – that’s not where the value lies. The value lies in the first half because I’m more confident that L.A.’s lead will be bigger after two quarters than it will be after four.


Nuggets

The Hornets are lucky, damn lucky, that they’re not facing elimination tonight. Because the way Game 3 in New Orleans started, it sure looked like the Nuggets were going to have a 3-0 series lead coming into this contest. Denver jumped out to leads of 10-0 and 20-6 in the first quarter Saturday, but it let up from that point till the end of the first half – when the Hornets went on a 44-27 run to take a 50-47 halftime lead.

Take out that 15-minute stretch of basketball, and the Nuggets have flat-out dominated this series. The won Games 1 and 2 at home by 29 and 15 points, respectively, and came within a whisker of taking Game 3, losing 95-93 (but covering as a 4 ½-point underdog). Put it this way: These teams have now played 12 quarters of basketball against each other over the past week and the Nuggets have won every quarter by two – the second and third quarters Saturday, when New Orleans had advantages of 29-21 and 27-25, respectively. That’s what I mean by dominance.

Denver has shot 47.2 percent for the series, held New Orleans to 42.1 percent and has a cumulative 129-118 rebounding edge. More important than any of that: The Nuggets’ stars have gotten more rest than the Hornets. That’s partly because Denver had those big leads at home, but mostly because the Nuggets are the much deeper team. In fact, more than anything, I love Denver tonight because I believe fatigue is going to set in for New Orleans.

Chris Paul, who was brilliant in Game 3 but had to play 46 of 48 minutes to get his team that narrow two-point win, and fellow All-Star David West have been playing enormous minutes for the Hornets for the past two months. If they hadn’t, New Orleans probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs. And even though these are young guys in tip-top physical condition, eventually there comes a point where the body – from the mind down to the legs – give out. I think we’re nearing that point with both Paul and West. At the same time, the Nuggets, and aging point guard Chauncey Billups in particular, look as fresh to me as they did in early December.

Denver has cashed in 11 of its last 15 games overall and has scored more than 100 points in 18 of its last 20 contests. The Nuggets have also won three of the last four against the Hornets, cashing in all four games. That includes a 101-88 blowout victory in New Orleans back on March 25. I’ve got a feeling we’re heading for a similar result tonight. Take the points, though I doubt we’ll need them.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Karl Garrett

20 DIMERS - HOUSTON (Oswalt over Cueto), DENVER NUGGETS, & LA LAKERS




20 DIMER - HOUSTON ASTROS (Oswalt over Cueto)

Roy Oswalt has yet to win this spring, as the veteran righty stands at 0-2 with a 4.68 ERA. Oswalt did work 6 scoreless against the Reds, and Cueto in a no-decision back on the 17th. Overall, Oswalt is 23-1 in his career against the Reds with a 2.39 ERA.

23-1 speaks for itself, and warrants a play on the Houston righty as the small underdog.

Houston went 6-0 last year at Cincinnati, and are 14-1 the last 2 years in the Queen City.

I can't pass on those numbers, take the 'Stros.

20 DIMER - DENVER NIUGGETS

Denver nearly pulled off the double-digit comeback win over the weekend in New Orleans, but the Hornets did manage to escape with a 2-point win to get on board in the series.

Tonight the Nuggets put the strangle-hold on the series, as Denver is still 4-2 straight up, and 5-1 against the spread the last 6 series meetings, and for the most part have looked to be the be the clearly superior team in this series thus far.

New Orleans has been dealing with injuries all season long, and I just did not like the way the Hornets nearly let that 11-point Saturday lead fall by the wayside.

I am taking the Nuggets plus the points tonight.

20 DIMER - LOS ANGELES LAKERS

The Jazz are done, stick a fork in them!

Utah got their "comp" series win in Game 3, a game in which the Lakers did lead by double-digits before bowing by a basket.

With LA's dominating weekend win, they are now 7-2 straight up the last 9 meetings against Utah, and they have won the last 4 by double digits!

The favorite in the series stands at 15-6-1 against the spread the last 22 clashes, and it is about time the Lakers get some rest before the semis begin.

Lay the wood with Los Angeles, as they clobber the Jazz.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Michael Cannon Monday's Plays...
20 Dime –

HORNETS (Buy the ½ point if your line is -2 ½, if your line is -3 do nothing. We are only protecting ourselves against the hook.)

Take the Hornets minus the small number tonight over the Nuggets.

No question Denver has played extremely well in this series, going 3-0 ATS, but I feel like the oddsmaker has adjusted to how these two teams matchup and this number is ripe for the taking if you’re a Hornets backer.

New Orleans ended a four-game losing streak with a win in Game 3, and now that they have that confidence back I’m confident you’re going to see a really good effort tonight from the Hornets.

Most of these playoff games have been hotly contested, so it wouldn’t surprise me to see this one go down to the wire as well. It’s just that the Hornets will enjoy that ever-important home court advantage, and that’s what’s going to make the difference in the end.

Don’t pay any attention to the differing pointspread streaks these two teams are on. Negative ATS numbers don’t continue sinking forever, just like positive ATS runs hit the wall eventually as well.

Take the Hornets minus the points as they grab the home win and cover.




10 Dime –

ROYALS (With Purcey and Bannister as listed pitchers)

Take the Royals for the home win over the Blue Jays.

I know Toronto is off to a great start this year, but Kansas City hasn’t been too shabby and tonight they’ll send Brian Bannister to the mound to make his second start of the season.

If it goes anything like his first start did, we’ll be sitting pretty at the end of the game.

Bannister pitched six shutout innings of Wednesday’s 2-0 win at Cleveland, allowing only four hits. The right-hander made a career-high 32 starts last year, but was just 9-16 with a 5.76 ERA. The fact he didn’t make the team out of spring training most likely hit home with him, as one would think they had a spot wrapped up on a team if they took a regular turn in the rotation the previous season.

Toronto will start David Purcey, who is the only Blue Jays’ starter who is winless so far. The left-hander is 0-1 with a 6.10 ERA in three starts and hasn’t made it out of the fifth inning in his previous two starts.

Purcey could be the tonic the ailing offense of Kansas City needs. The Royals have dropped five of their last seven, and it’s due in large part to putrid offensive output.

Take the Royals as they grab the home win.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Tony Weston

MONDAY'S PLAY

20 Dime Heat
10 Dime Nuggets


Hawks at Heat
HEAT - So, how much of a fluke was Game 1 of this series between the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat?

The Hawks opened this series with a huge victory, beating the Heat 107-78 as a 4-point favorite. Since then, Miami has taken apart the Hawks, winning Game 2 in Atlanta outright, 108-93 as a 5-point underdog then cruising to an easy 107-78 victory as a 4-point favorite in Game 3.

Tonight, Miami is installed as about a 4 1/2 point favorite and will continue the destruction of the Atlanta Hawks.

Consider that including the last two covers in this series the Heat have cashed in 5 of their last 6 games and are 7-3 ATS their last 10 overall. Miami is also riding 5-1 ATS record against the Eastern Conference and has been a huge money maker when favored between 1/2 and 4 1/2 points, cashing in 10 of their last 12 games in those situations.

The Heat have also covered in 7 of their last 9 games at home and have been even more dominant in Miami when playing the visiting Hawks, who have covered only 3 times in their last 16 meetings in South Beach.

Also, over the last 32 meetings overall between the Heat and Hawks, Miami has gone an impressive 23-9 ATS.

Atlanta has failed to cover in each of its last 4 games when installed as a road underdog and has failed to cover in each of its last 5 games when installed as a dog’ anywhere and will fail to cover again tonight in Miami.

The Heat will inch closer to the second round and get over easily on the Hawks.


Nuggets at Hornets
NUGGETS - After absolutely owning the New Orleans Hornets in the first two games of this series, the Denver Nuggets took a step back with a SU loss in Game 3, but still managed to cover in their third straight game in this series.

Tonight, Denver will make it four straight games of money making as they flirt with the outright win.

Coming into this game the Nuggets have cashed in 7 of their last 10 games, while the Hornets have failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 games.

Going a step further, the Hornets are only 2-8 ATS their last 10 against the Western Conference and have covered only once in their last 5 games when installed as a favorite.

Denver, on the other hand, has cashed in 5 of its last 7 road games and is 20-8 ATS its last 28 games when installed as a road underdog of between 1/2 and 4 1/2 points.

Keep in mind, too, that over their last 4 meetings the Nuggets are 3-1 SU against the Hornets and have covered in each of those games.

Tonight, Denver will make it 5 in a row ATS and 4 straight in this postseason series. Take the points and take the Nuggets on the road in this one.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

Bobby Maxwell

Monday's 2-0 ticket 600-Unit NBA Super Shot - MIAMI HEAT

There must be something about the playoffs that doesn't allow the Hawks to score points on the road. They managed just 78 on Saturday at Miami in Game 3 of this series, and remember last season when they pushed the Celtics to 7 games, but just got destroyed in each game in Boston.

Miami has taken the last two games, including Saturday's 107-78 win as a four-point favorite. They have gotten great play from Jermaine O'Neal who has poured in 41 points and 16 rebounds to help get the Heat the 2-1 lead in the series. His emergence has given the Heat a second superstar to go along with Dwyane Wade and it has taken the Hawks by surprise.

Atlanta has now lost 12 straight postseason games on the road dating back to 1997, and they lost the four games in Boston last season by an average of 26.4 points per game. You clearly see they aren't just losing road playoff games, hell, they aren't even showing up.

Miami is on a 23-9 ATS run agaisnt the Hawks, including a whopping 13-3 ATS edge when they meet in South Beach. The Heat are 29-13 SU at home this season and the Hawks are a lousy 16-26 away from home.

Atlanta has had a plethora of problems at the betting window lately, including 1-5 overall, 0-5 as a 'dog, 1-6 against winning teams and 1-4 after a day off.

Miami is going to deliver again at home and do it in a big way. Play the Heat to win this one by 10 at least.






100-Unit N.L. Road Warrior - HOUSTON ASTROS (play only with Oswalt as listed pitcher for Houston)

The Astros must love the ballpark in Cincinnati as they've won nine straight and 15 of 16 in the Reds house and tonight they open a three-game set there with ace Roy Oswalt (0-2, 4.68 ERA) on the mound.

We love Oswalt and this guy is tough as nails agaisnt the Reds, going 8-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his last nine starts against the Reds and he's 23-1 with a 2.39 ERA in 27 starts and two relief appearances for his career against Cincinnati.

The Reds will start Johnny Cueto (1-1, 2.55 ERA) tonight and he hasn't been so good against the Astros, going 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA in five career starts.

Houston got a 3-2 win against the Brewers on Sunday and they ended a three-game losing streak.

In this amazing nine-game home losing streak the Reds starters have an 8.37 ERA. They just can't seem to do anything right agaisnt the Astros.

Houston is beginning an eight-game road trip tonight and they have to get it started on the right foot and Oswalt knows this better than anybody. He will step up and deliver a strong outing tonight, so play the Astros.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 4-27-09

ATSlocks_com


1.5 U (largest play) Kansas City and Toronto Over 9 -105
.5 U Florida +141