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Re: 5-5-09
Scott Spreitzer
Philadelphia at St Louis
Play: St Louis
I'm playing the Cards with Wainwright over Myers. The opening price on this one dropped dramatically...anywhere from 15-to-20 cents across the board. This gives us serious value on the home team. Adam Wainwright is off to a strong start this season, owns terrific numbers at Busch, and a 1.17 ERA against the Phils. He's backed by a team that was crushing opposing righthanders heading into this week's action. The Cards were averaging 6.3 rpg in 16 outings against righties, including 3-0 and 6.0 rpg when those matchups came in home night affairs. They didn't fare so well last night, but I expect a return to form, even without Ankiel in this one. After all, they're facing a hurler they can handle in Brett Myers. The Philly righty owns a 5.19 career ERA against the Redbirds, including a hefty 6.97 ERA in five appearances (three starts) at the new Busch. Look for the Cardinals to tag Myers tonight in a quick revenge opportunity for last night's loss. I'm laying the price with St. Louis on Tuesday night. -
Re: 5-5-09
Burns
7* Mavs
8* Hawks
6* Under Redwings
7* Under Blackhawks
7* Under Astros
9* Oakland A'sComment
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Re: 5-5-09
Larry Ness' 20* Club-80 Play-MLB (85.7% situation s/2008!)
My 20* Club-80 Play is on the StL Cards at 8:15 ET. The Phillies came into last night's game with a team ERA of 5.64, which ranked them 27th in MLB and dead-last among NL teams. Philadelphia starters had been particularly ineffective, earning just four wins, posting a 6.71 ERA and allowing opponents to hit .329. Joe Blanton got the start and there was no real reason for optimism, as he had opened 2009 with a 0-2 record and an 8.41 ERA in four starts. The Cards were hitting .280 (5th-best in MLB) and averaging 5.60 RPG on the season. St Louis was 10-3 at home, while outscoring opponents on average, 5.85 RPG-to-3.92. Starting for the Cards was Kyle Lohse, who was 3-0 with a 1.97 ERA in five starts in 2009. So what happened? Blanton went six innings allowing four hits and one run (three Philly relievers finished with three scoreless innings, allowing one hit). Lohse imploded for St Louis, allowing seven hits and six ERs in 4.1 innings (Phils broke it open with a four-run fifth!). And so it goes. The Phillies go for a sweep of this two-game "mini-series" and their fifth straight road win tonight (Phils are 7-2 on the road this year) but the going figures to be awfully rough. Let's not forget that the Cards are 10-4 at home in 2009 plus 17-9 overall and have yet to lose three straight this season (have now dropped two in a row with last night's loss). Much more importantly, the Cards will send Adam Wainwright to the mound tonight, which gives them a very strong pitching edge (Phils counter with Brett Myers). Let's begin with Myers. He went 14-9 with a 4.43 ERA back in 2003 and through 2006 totaled 50 wins (12.5 per season) as a solid starter for the Phillies. He then moved to the bullpen in 2007 (51 appearances, all but three in relief) and went 5-7 with a 4.33 ERA (21 saves). The Phils returned him to the starting rotation in 2008 but a brutal four-game stretch from June 10 through June 27 (he was 0-2 withan 8.57 ERA / team was 0-4) got him sent down to the minors. He pitched fairly well when he returned in late July, finishing with a 9-5 record in 16 starts (team was 10-6), while posting a 3.35 ERA. He made three postseason starts for the Phillies (who won the World Series), going 2-1 with a 5.21 ERA. Philadelphia starters have pretty much struggled in 2009 (see above) and Myers enters this game 1-2 with a 4.83 ERA in five starts (team is 2-3). Myers has allowed at least three runs and no more than four runs in all five starts this season and he's gone at least six innings but no more than seven innings in any start. That's consistency but hardly excellence. In fact, it's rather mediocre. As for Wainwright of the Cards, St Louis has come to rely on his excellence when he takes the mound at Busch Stadium. Wainwright was set-up man for the 2006 World champs, making 61 appearances (all in relief) for the Cards that year (2-1 with a 3.12 ERA). He was converted to a starter in '07, making 32 starts and going 14-12 with a 3.75 ERA (team was 19-13). He followed that year by going 11-3 with a 3.20 ERA in 2008, making only 20 starts because of some injury woes. However, he was near-unbeatable at Busch, where the Cards went 10-1 (2.63 ERA) in his 11 starts (team was 5-4 in his road starts, for an overall 15-5 mark). He's 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five starts this year (team is 4-1). Three of those starts have come at home, where he's got a 1.56 ERA. The team is 2-1, losing on Opening Day (4/6), when the St Louis bullpen allowed four ninth-inning runs in a 6-4 loss to the Pirates (not Wainwright's fault). The simple fact is this, the Cards are 12-2 or 85.7 percent since the beginning of 2008 in Wainwright's home starts. Myers may be consistent this year but his consistency consists of allowing about five ERs per nine innings. Meanwhile, the Cards have been 'money' with Wainwright on the mound at home since 2008 (12-2, remember) plus Wainwright is 2-0 with a 1.17 ERA in five career appearances against them, including three starts (Cards are 3-0 in those starts). Club-80 Play 20* StL Cards.
Good Luck...Larry
Larry Ness' 15* Situational Mismatch-MLB (26-12 run! the L17 days in MLB)
My 15* Situational Mismatch is on the Fla Marlins at 7:10 ET. The Marlins opened the 2009 season 11-1 but have quickly 'cooled' off. Last night's 3-2 win in 14 innings over the Reds was just the team's FOURTH in its last 14 games. However, the Marlins have been atop the NL East since opening day and Monday's win kept them there, a half-game up over last year's World Series champs (Phillies). The Reds are 13-12 to open 2009, which is pretty heady territory for a team which was 74-88 last season and 72-90 in 2007. Cincy's road record is 9-5 but the team has averaged just 3.80 RPG overall (3.98 on the road) and the Reds won't keep winning if their offense doesn't improve. Getting the call for the Reds tonight is Edinson Volquez (3-2, 4.45 ERA), who went 17-6 with a 3.21 ERA in his first full season in the majors in 2008. It was quite a performance. He had spent three years in Texas, making just 20 appearances (17 starts), posting a 3-11 mark with a 7.20 ERA. However, he led the Reds in wins in 2008, while posting the lowest ERA of any member of the rotation plus his 206 strikeouts tied him with Arizona's Dan Haren and Johan Santana of New York for second in the NL. He was also Cincinnati's only 2008 All-Star, as the Reds went 21-11 in his starts (they were 53-77 in games he didn't start!). Now that's pretty impressive. However, Volquez had opened the 2009 season 2-2 with a 6.20 ERA in his first four starts, before allowing only one hit through eight innings last Wednesday night, leading the Cincinnati Reds to a 3-0 victory over the Houston Astros. The Astros had won their last 11 games at Great American Ball Park (since late in the 2007 season). They had also won 16 of 17 in Cincinnati over the last three years, so Volquez's excellent effort was as important to the Reds' frame of mind as it was to his. However, I worry about the team's offense. The Reds are hitting .240 as a team (ranks 27th in MLB) and the team's 95 runs scored are more than only one other MLB team (Giants have scored 84 runs). Now Florida has gone a team-record 17 consecutive games without getting a win from one of its starters, as the rotation is 0-7 with a 5.53 ERA in that stretch. However, it's hard to lay any blame at the feet of tonight's starter, Chris Volstad. He's 2-0 with a 2.67 ERA in five 2009 starts. He won his first two starts this season but has three straight no decisions, despite a 3.44 ERA and 16 strikeouts in 18.1 innings. Let's remember that despite Cincy's early road success (9-5), the Reds are averaging just under four runs per game (3.98). A quick check of last year's fact book shows the Reds were just 17-33 vs right-handers on the road (3.9 RPG) in 2008 and that over these past two seasons, the Reds were a combined 64-98 (.395) away from Great American Ball Park. Situational Mismatch 15* Fla Marlins.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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Re: 5-5-09
Brandon Lang
15 Dime - Denver Nuggets
15 Dime Denver Nuggets - The only chance the Mavericks have in getting to this Denver team would be if they could thwart all efforts and immediately deflate the confidence of the home team. That being said, let me just tell you that won't happen.
Not tonight, and I'm not so sure later this week in Dallas. Denver is too good.
Some say the Nuggets are maturing as the games progress; I say the team is grown. Chauncey Billups arrived and the Nuggets look awfully good after five dominating postseason wins - four over the Hornets and in Game 1 against Dallas.
And the scary thing is, the team looks more confident with each blowout win. And after watching the Lakers lose outright last night, I wouldn't be surprised to see Denver feed off that and gain momentum. A win tonight would mean it's the best-performing team in the Western Conference. And quite frankly, I already think it is.
Focus guys: Denver hasn't lost a game at the Pepsi Center since March 11. Its average margin of victory this postseason is 22.5 points.
Dallas knows what it has to do, but I just don't think it can. Denver is playing tremendous basketball right now, and we're going to ride the Nuggets to another win in the second round.
Free pick - Hawks/Cavs OverComment
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Re: 5-5-09
My 15* play is on the Cle Cavs at 8:05 ET. The Hawks ended an eight-year postseason drought last season, qualifying for the playoffs with a 37-45 record (12-29 on the road). They then took the eventual champs (Boston) to seven games in the opening round, before losing. However, the Hawks were non-competitive in all four road games (lost by 23, 19, 25 and 34 points), so the Hawks knew that they needed to improve on last year's regular season record in order to gain home court advantage in at least the first round of the playoffs. Atlanta did just that, as its 47-35 mark was good enough for them to claim the No. 4 seed. The home court edge worked, as the Hawks won Game 7 of their first round series with the Heat, 91-78 this past Sunday. The series win ended an almost hard to believe stretch in which the Hawks franchise had lost 14 consecutive seven-game series (dating back to 1970). Anyway, Atlanta's reward for getting past Miami, is a second round date with LeBron (just named TY's MVP ) and the Cavs, owners of the NBA's best record at 66-16. The Cavs went 39-2 SU at home this year (28-13 ATS) and after sweeping the Pistons in the first round 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS), the Cavs will take a 41-2 SU (30-13 ATS) home mark into this game. Cleveland has outscored opponents on average, 102.1 PPG-to-87.7 here at Quickens Loan Arena (including the two games with the Pistons). LeBron (28.4-7.6-7.2) was deservedly named MVP but he's had plenty of help this year. The Cavs were the league's second-best three-point shooting team (39.3 percent) during the regular season and the NBA's best defensive team. They ranked No. 1 in PPG allowed (91.4), while holding opponents to 43.1 percent on FG attempts (2nd-best) and 33.3 percent on three-point attempts (ranked 1st). While the Hawks have improved their road play from last year, it's worth noting that they lost two of their three road games at Miami in the first round, by margins of 29 and 26 points. LA's loss last night to the Rockets will have the Cavs' "extra-focused" on their Game 1 and that's VERY bad news for the Hawks. 15* Cle Cavs.
Good Luck...LarryComment
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Re: 5-5-09
BURNS MLB
Baseball (MLB)
OAKLAND
Game: Los Angeles Angels vs. Oakland Athletics Game Time: 5/5/2009 10:05:00 PM Prediction: Oakland Athletics Reason: I'm laying the price with OAKLAND. The Angels have started to play better recently. However, they're still dealing with numerous injuries and this is a tough spot for them. Not only are they facing an improved division rival with "payback" on its mind, but the Angels are also playing the final game of their 7-game road trip. They won yesterday, which secured a winning record for the trip, which could make them slightly complacent ("a little less hungry") here. Making matters worse, they figure to be at a disadvantage on the mound. Shane Loux pitched well (1 run, 6 innings) in his last start. However, he was rocked in his previous start and he's still got an ugly 5.24 ERA and 1.727 WHIP on the season. The Angels are just 1-3 in his games. Dallas Braden also pitched well (0 runs, 5 innings) last time out. Unlike Loux, he's also got excellent stats for the season. Through five starts, he's gone 3-2 with a 2.10 ERA. That includes a 2-0 mark here at Oakland. Over his last three starts, Braden has a remarkable 1.00 ERA. Braden has also pitched well vs. the Angels. He suffered a hard luck loss against them earlier this season, getting beaten 3-0 at LA. In his lone start against the Angels last season, he allowed just one run through seven innings, earning a 2-1 victory. He's got a very solid 2.81 ERA in three career starts against them. Braden is supported by an Oakland bullpen which entered the series with the best ERA in baseball and which got the job done again last night. While the Angels did get a couple of good innings from their bullpen last night, overall their relievers have been terrible. They entered the series with a combined 9.58 ERA and 2.032 WHIP on the road, the worst in the league. The A's know that the Angels (currently 3rd in the division) are still the team to beat in the AL West. They also know that they getting "swept" at home, even if it is only a 2-game series, could prove costly a few months down the line and that they need to salvage at least a split, particularly when facing the likes of Loux. The A's are 4-1 in Braden's last five home starts and I look for them to improve on those stats with another victory this evening. *AL West GOM
UNDER houston/washington
Game: Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals Game Time: 5/5/2009 12:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Washington and Houston to finish UNDER the total. Yesterday's series opener saw plenty of offense with Washington eventually earning a 9-4 victory. I'm expecting to see much better pitching this afternoon. Olsen got off to an awful start with Washington. However, he's been terrific his last few starts. In fact, he's got a 2.41 ERA his last three starts, the last two of which both stayed below the total. Olsen has enjoyed success against Houston. He last faced the Astros last September and allowed just three hits and one run through seven complete innings. Note that he had seven K's and just one walk. Overall, he's 3-0 with a very solid 3.20 ERA and 1.068 WHIP against the Astros. Oswalt goes for the visitors and he's pitched a lot better than his 0-2 record indicates. He's got a 3.21 ERA his last three starts and a 3.82 ERA on the season. Not surprisingly, given that he hasn't been getting much run support, the UNDER is 4-2 in his six starts. Oswalt has dominated the Washington franchise over his career and he's fared particularly well here at Washington. He's 3-1 with a 2.59 ERA in 10 career games, eight of them starts, against the Nationals franchise. That includes a 1-0 record and an outstanding 0.55 ERA in four games (3 starts) here at Washington. I expect a well-pitched affair and look for the UNDER to improve to 11-3 the last 14 times that the Astros played a game with a total of either eight or 8.5. *annihilatorComment
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Re: 5-5-09
Burn NBA
Basketball (NBA)
DALLAS
Game: Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets Game Time: 5/5/2009 10:30:00 PM Prediction: Dallas Mavericks Reason: I'm taking the points with DALLAS. The Nuggets are perfect at the betting window (A.T.S.) in the postseason and they won Game 1 in convincing (109-95) fashion. The Nuggets, who have now won three straight, are just 9-13 ATS when coming off three or more consecutive SU victories though. I expect them to face an extremely tough test this evening. The Mavericks are a well-coached team with plenty of talent and plenty of pride. They're also a veteran team and they know the importance of earning a split of the first two games, as they did at San Antonio, when starting a playoff series on the road. The Mavs have proven to be a team which excels at bouncing back from "ugly" losses. In fact, they're 13-2 SU and 10-5 ATS the last 15 times that they were coming off a double-digit loss. They're also 15-7 ATS (16-6 SU) the last 22 times that they were coming off a game in which they allowed 105 or more points. Prior to the Game 1 result, the two previous 2009 meetings between these teams were both decided by just two points. I won't be surprised if this one is also decided in the closing seconds and am grabbing the generous points. *annihilator
HAWKS
Game: Atlanta Hawks vs. Cleveland Cavaliers Game Time: 5/5/2009 8:05:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Hawks Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. The Hawks were good to me in the first round, as I played on them in all four of their victories, while staying off them in all three of their losses. I believe that they offer us excellent value again here. In addition to cashing a ticket on the Celtics/Magic 'under' the total yesterday, I also played on Houston. As you probably know, the Rockets went into LA and upset the #1 seeded Lakers. This setup has several similarities to that Houston play. Like the Hawks, the Rockets were coming off a competitive series and playing a road game against a #1 seed which was coming off an "easy" first round series. Like the Hawks, the Rockets had "exorcised some playoff demons" by advancing past the first round. The first round series victory for the Rockets had relieved any pressure that they had been feeling and they were able to play loose, as heavy underdogs. Like the Rockets, nobody is giving the Hawks a chance, meaning that they will be feeling very little pressure. The Hawks are a well-balanced team. They've got numerous weapons on offense, with three players averaging greater than 15 points. Like Houston, the Hawks are capable of playing excellent defense. They held the Heat to 64, 71 and 78 points in three of their four victories and to an average of only 88 for the series. The Cavaliers have enjoyed a great year and they were certainly impressive in the first round. However, they were matched up against a Detroit team on the decline. Now, after they've been sitting around since 4/26, they'll face an Atlanta team which is on the upswing and which actually believes it can can compete in this series. Note that the last three meetings between these teams have all been decided by six points or less. Looking back a bit further and we find that six of the last seven meetings between these teams have been decided by single digits. Look for this one to also prove closer than most are expecting with the Hawks building momentum from their big Game 7 victory and improving to 12-5-1 ATS on the season, after holding their previous opponent to 85 points or less. *Main EventComment
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Re: 5-5-09
BURNS NHL
Hockey (NHL)
UNDER ducks/wings
Game: Detroit Red Wings vs. Anaheim Ducks Game Time: 5/5/2009 10:35:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Detroit and Anaheim to finish UNDER the total. After a 3-2 Detroit win in the opener, Game 2 was "high-scoring," with the Ducks winning by a score of 4-3. While that game did finish above the total, note that it wasn't decided until the third overtime period. In other words, the teams played two full overtime periods of scoreless hockey. Note that Anaheim goalie Jonas Hiller made a whopping 59 saves, continuing his stellar postseason. Off that type of battle in Game 2, I expect Game 3 to pick up where that one left off and look for goals to be few and far between. Even with the Game 2 result, the Wings have still seen five of their last seven games produce five combined goals or less. Likewise, the Ducks have seen six of their last eight finish with five goals or less. I expect tonight's game to also finish with five or less with the UNDER improving to 21-11-1 the last 33 times that the Ducks were coming off a game in which they scored four or more goals. *Blue Chip
UNDER canucks/hawks
Game: Vancouver Canucks vs. Chicago Blackhawks Game Time: 5/5/2009 8:00:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Vancouver and Chicago to finish UNDER the total. The first two games of this series both finished above the total. However, as we often see in both the basketball and hockey playoffs, the change of venue often brings about a change of pace/tempo. In other words, just because the first two games were high-scoring, doesn't mean that this one will be. Note that the results from those first two games have helped us, as we're now getting an over/under line of 5.5 instead of five. That may not sounds like much. However, it is significant. Five is a very common final score, particularly in the playoffs. Naturally, getting a win is better than getting a push. The last meeting here at Chicago finished with a score of 4-0 with Luongo recording the shutout. Including that result, five of the last six meetings between the Canucks and Hawks, here at Chicago, have produced five goals or less. The other finished with six. Keep in mind that prior to this series, Luongo and the Canucks had allowed a mere six goals in their previous seven games. Look for things to return to "normal" as this one proves lower-scoring than most are expecting. *TOWComment
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